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Irony Be My Shield posted:The Russian bloggers talking about Ukrainian units crossing the Dnieper and setting up seems like good evidence that they're at least preparing for an offensive. Also thank god everyone seems to have collectively agreed to call it the "East" rather than the "left" bank now https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1649152253742182419
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Apr 24, 2023 21:08
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https://twitter.com/bmilakovsky/status/1650598822647570447?s=20 https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-forced-mobilisation-donetsk-luhansk-ukraine/ This is a good article and attendant twitter thread by an American aid worker who used to live and work in government-controlled Donbas.
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Apr 24, 2023 23:12
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Also thank god everyone seems to have collectively agreed to call it the "East" rather than the "left" bank now Rivers wind all over the place, sometimes turning 180ş or even 360ş in a short distance, so east/west terminology can be ambiguous. The one thing rivers don't do is flow backwards. (Flooding and other rare/localized events don't count.  )
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Apr 24, 2023 23:17
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Fuschia tude posted:Rivers wind all over the place, sometimes turning 180º or even 360º in a short distance, so east/west terminology can be ambiguous. The one thing rivers don't do is flow backwards. I believe you will find that the Chicago River disagrees with you there. They civil engineered it into flowing backwards in 1900
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Apr 25, 2023 00:15
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HonorableTB posted:I believe you will find that the Chicago River disagrees with you there. They civil engineered it into flowing backwards in 1900 And it was such a big deal that people are still talking about it 120 years later.
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Apr 25, 2023 00:56
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Thomas C. Theiner posted posted:https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1650590089297141760/photo/1 Thomas Theiner posted a rough order-of-battle for Ukraine's new brigades with their primary platforms. His Twitter profile says that he's a former Italian artillery officer, and I've found his analysis of platforms and systems to consistently be good. His operational analysis is well-grounded, though it tends to be optimistic. Unsurprisingly the Ukrainians did a good job mixing mutually-supporting platforms. Every brigade has something that can kill tanks, and every brigade has enough infantry (assuming they're fully-manned, which seems a reasonable assumption at the moment). I expect Ukraine will be able to breach Russian lines within a relatively short time of initiating direct contact; the question is how much operational exploitation can they achieve?
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Apr 25, 2023 01:01
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Ynglaur posted:I expect Ukraine will be able to breach Russian lines within a relatively short time of initiating direct contact; the question is how much operational exploitation can they achieve? The question will be; how fast the Russians can retreat with not much operational experience of it. Once they know there is Ukrainian armour behind them, I expect them to collapse like a pack of cards. Attacking south may actually cause this to be a problem- if the only Russian line of retreat is south towards the Crimea it will be all to easy to create a bottleneck and force the retreating Mobiks to stand and fight. In any case, wherever they attack, I am sure the Russian's will not be ready for it.
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Apr 25, 2023 02:23
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if there was an offensive underway there would be evidence of an offensive underway
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Apr 25, 2023 03:06
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Comstar posted:The question will be; how fast the Russians can retreat with not much operational experience of it. Once they know there is Ukrainian armour behind them, I expect them to collapse like a pack of cards. Aren't you forgetting about the deep trenches the Russians have dug since the Winter, not to mention there's a lot more soldiers now than last year? It's not impossible but it could be more challenging
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Apr 25, 2023 03:48
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Comstar posted:Attacking south may actually cause this to be a problem- if the only Russian line of retreat is south towards the Crimea it will be all to easy to create a bottleneck and force the retreating Mobiks to stand and fight. Just based off tactics NATO has impart onto the Ukrainians and previous examples in the first half of the war, if the Russians get bottlenecked, they're not going to stand and fight, they're going to stand and die: It's been NATO operating procedure, even before NATO to the Allies in WW2, to force the enemy to concentrate units, be it in pockets (the Falaise pocket in WW2) or bottlenecks (the hypothetical Fulda Gap or the very real Highway of Death in Iraq), so they're unable to maneuver and burn fuel in traffic jams, then beat the poo poo out of them with artillery and air power. NATO has donated the Ukrainians stuff like the HIMARS, which is renowned for it's long range precision warheads, but they were also provided M30A1 dual-purpose munitions, which peppers both infantry and light vehicles with 180,000 tungsten darts, like a shotgun. We know that the Ukrainians have used the Rasputina to keep the Russians on vulnerable roads, and the Bayraktar drones to destroy choice clusters of logistics vehicles. As the better and more powerful weapons have become available to them, the more opportunities to cluster the Russians and shoot for complete destruction on their battle groups.
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Apr 25, 2023 03:56
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Young Freud posted:Just based off tactics NATO has impart onto the Ukrainians and previous examples in the first half of the war, if the Russians get bottlenecked, they're not going to stand and fight, they're going to stand and die: It's been NATO operating procedure, even before NATO to the Allies in WW2, to force the enemy to concentrate units, be it in pockets (the Falaise pocket in WW2) or bottlenecks (the hypothetical Fulda Gap or the very real Highway of Death in Iraq), so they're unable to maneuver and burn fuel in traffic jams, then beat the poo poo out of them with artillery and air power. NATO has donated the Ukrainians stuff like the HIMARS, which is renowned for it's long range precision warheads, but they were also provided M30A1 dual-purpose munitions, which peppers both infantry and light vehicles with 180,000 tungsten darts, like a shotgun. I'm not sure what you mean about the first half of the war. The Russians have been able to successfully retreat when their lines have crumbled, albeit often without a lot of their heavy equipment; their most disastrous losses have been during their own doomed assaults. I don't think anyone should be assuming that there will be thousands of pocketed Russians in the next few months. And I thought the Fulda Gap was supposed to be a defensive bottleneck to desperately hold back the Soviets long enough for NATO militaries to mobilize, not a way to concentrate retreating troops into a killzone. Quixzlizx fucked around with this message at 04:08 on Apr 25, 2023 |
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Apr 25, 2023 04:06
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Quixzlizx posted:I'm not sure what you mean about the first half of the war. The Russians have been able to successfully retreat when their lines have crumbled, albeit often without a lot of their heavy equipment; their most disastrous losses have been during their own doomed assaults. If there was a time to force a large scale surrenders it was in Kherson - there will not be no more ideal conditions.
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Apr 25, 2023 04:17
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Herstory Begins Now posted:if there was an offensive underway there would be evidence of an offensive underway The offensive knows when it is underway because it knows when it isn't.
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Apr 25, 2023 05:41
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Young Freud posted:We know that the Ukrainians have used the Rasputina to keep the Russians on vulnerable roads, Please just say mud season There's no reason to use the local words for the same concepts that exist in English as if they're mysterious oriental phenomena (same for dezinformaciya, maskirovka, blat, pizdesh, naebalovo)
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Apr 25, 2023 06:04
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Angry Planet just had an episode with the reporter who tracked down the ANG kid who released TS documents on discord. SomethingAwful gets mentioned, not in the best light though... They discuss a little about the tactical/strategic implications, but mostly about the why and how of the whole ordeal. https://shows.acast.com/warcollege/episodes/how-a-21-year-old-edgelord-stole-pentagon-secrets
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Apr 25, 2023 06:08
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Somaen posted:Please just say mud season Loskapaska
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Apr 25, 2023 06:10
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Also isn't it, uh, rasputitsa? Rasputina appears to be an American band. And I think the Ukrainian word is bezdorizhzia?
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Apr 25, 2023 07:01
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Phosphine posted:Also isn't it, uh, rasputitsa? Rasputina appears to be an American band. Bezdorozhye is also a Russian word meaning the same - place or situation without roads
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Apr 25, 2023 07:09
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How well Ukrainians are able to provide air defenses for the mobile vs how well Russians are able to use their air superiority will play some role in how the offensive will roll. But it's still anyone's guess what their current abilities are.
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Apr 25, 2023 07:10
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Nenonen posted:But it's still anyone's guess what their current abilities are. In a recent post by Igor Girkin, he feels that the Russian Air Force is "as active and effective as in the Battle of Borodino". 1812
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Apr 25, 2023 11:02
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Comstar posted:The question will be; how fast the Russians can retreat with not much operational experience of it. Once they know there is Ukrainian armour behind them, I expect them to collapse like a pack of cards. Given the last major Russian retreat in Kherson was in a much more difficult scenario, and they pulled it off quite successfully, this seems wildly optimistic.
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Apr 25, 2023 12:13
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Somaen posted:Please just say mud season Roztopy  Actual content: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1650797230629040131 I guess this is where the rumble of counteroffensive comes from.
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Apr 25, 2023 12:21
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There's some more specific rumbling around Tokmak as well. Nothing verifiable as of yet.
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Apr 25, 2023 12:23
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I would be suprised to see one large all out offensive by Ukraine. Instead, as we are probably seeing now, are probing attacks along the front to possibly either A. Find a gap and exploit it, and/or B. Keep the Russians off balance and guessing to where exactly that push will come. This approach could last most, if not all the summer.
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Apr 25, 2023 12:38
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Russia is good at retreating, and I genuinely don't mean that as a bit. Both American and Ukrainian observers noted how well the retreat from Kyiv was conducted (considering the circumstances, of course). A Goon buddy recommended a podcast run by a US military officer who specializes in urban warfare called the Urban Warfare Project, and he talked about the retreat in his current series on the Battle of Kyiv. He also has an interview with Aiden Aslan that's a really compelling listen.
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Apr 25, 2023 12:46
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Phosphine posted:Also isn't it, uh, rasputitsa? Rasputina appears to be an American band. Rasputina is a cello based goth rock band, yes
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Apr 25, 2023 12:46
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Owling Howl posted:If there was a time to force a large scale surrenders it was in Kherson - there will not be no more ideal conditions. In Kherson they had their backs to a large stretch of river with three (at the time of retreat, damaged) bridges across it. This was a major obstacle for moving heavy equipment and all the ammunition/fuel/food necessary to keep a large fighting force supplied during combat, but it was not a major obstacle for soldiers or light vehicles (cars) entering or retreating Kherson - you could literally swim across parts of the river, take a small boat, or just walk across the bridges. The Russian military *was* forced to leave the Western bank and part ways with a bunch of ammunition and heavier equipment they couldn't get back across the river - including one of the better condition T-90M's captured to date because they could not actually maintain the defense and they could not hold the defensive lines along the river - running the risk of Ukrainian advances similar to those just prior to the retreat cutting pockets of defenders off from the riverbank.
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Apr 25, 2023 12:58
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Dick Ripple posted:I would be suprised to see one large all out offensive by Ukraine. Instead, as we are probably seeing now, are probing attacks along the front to possibly either A. Find a gap and exploit it, and/or B. Keep the Russians off balance and guessing to where exactly that push will come. This approach could last most, if not all the summer. I don't think they have the forces to attack everywhere they want to to find a gap, and their artillery is very accurate enough they don't have too. Now they WILL try and faint in one or two places and attack in the other, but they can't not have all their armour move across the front. My guess it will be in one area only. If they get 3-4 bridges across the Dnieper, that's the main attack. I think they can get a good enough SAM net across to hold them and use helicopters (which they got a good amount of I think now?) to do it. 'Corse if the Russian defenses collapses all along the front, that will make it easier to advance in more places.
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Apr 25, 2023 13:08
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T-14 Armatas are finally being used in Ukraine, but not in direct battles. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-new-t-14-armata-battle-tank-debuts-ukraine-ria-2023-04-25/ quote:Russia has begun using its new T-14 Armata battle tanks to fire on Ukrainian positions "but they have not yet participated in direct assault operations," the RIA state news agency reported on Tuesday, quoting a source close the matter.
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Apr 25, 2023 13:33
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Mr. Apollo posted:T-14 Armatas are finally being used in Ukraine, but not in direct battles. Did they take those "ERA bricks on everything" comics seriously and just stuck them on the front?
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Apr 25, 2023 13:40
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Everything but a Rivet Joint in the same part of the sky right now too https://twitter.com/scott_dufc1976/status/1650817944539082752
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Apr 25, 2023 13:43
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Irony Be My Shield posted:The Russian bloggers talking about Ukrainian units crossing the Dnieper and setting up seems like good evidence that they're at least preparing for an offensive. Also thank god everyone seems to have collectively agreed to call it the "East" rather than the "left" bank now I feel like "east" is the absolute most confusing choice they could have gone with at that particular spot. The Russian controlled side is the left bank, or more colloquially I'd say the south bank. East makes no sense to me in that context, when the river is flowing more or less east-west right there. Like no one calls Palestine the "right bank", and they definitely don't call it the "south bank", since the Jordan is running north-south in that area.
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Apr 25, 2023 13:43
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NTRabbit posted:Everything but a Rivet Joint in the same part of the sky right now too This isn't that unusual. sometimes there'll only be one or two planes there showing on flightradar but it's not uncommon to see that many.
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Apr 25, 2023 13:54
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Mr. Apollo posted:T-14 Armatas are finally being used in Ukraine, but not in direct battles. Since it is RIA, i am believing it once it lands on Oryx and not a minute earlier
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Apr 25, 2023 14:01
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Comstar posted:I don't think they have the forces to attack everywhere they want to to find a gap, and their artillery is very accurate enough they don't have too. Aren't the Antonovskiy/Kakhovka bridge damaged to the point you can't get armor across? Where are the other bridges? Or do you assume they will build pontoon bridges? I hope I'm wrong, but I can't see them attacking from that side without the bridges, and the land around it being swampland. It seems like a massive gamble?
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Apr 25, 2023 14:28
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mrfart posted:Aren't the Antonovskiy/Kakhovka bridge damaged to the point you can't get armor across? If you wanted to attack south from Zaporizhia towards Melitopol, for instance, you might signal that you were going to cross the river in Kherson to draw Russian forces there. Russia can't entirely ignore the possibility. I do believe the logistics of attacking across the river and maintaining and expanding a bridgehead there would be far too difficult when they have perfectly good roads in Zaporizhia as the alternative though. An offensive might happen somewhere else entirely though - Russian occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts are just very obviously the soft underbelly, logistically speaking, and presents an opportunity to bifurcate occupied areas and put pressure on Crimea. However, although Russia has made many mistakes, on every level, it would be hubris to assume they don't realize the danger and haven't positioned forces and defenses accordingly and that might make other options more appealing to Ukrainian planners.
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Apr 25, 2023 15:25
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Somaen posted:Please just say mud season someone's gonna be real mad if they ever start reading contemporary informal russian and seeing how many english loanwords are in use for things that could reasonably use a word of russian origin dehumanize yourself and face to фейки and смайлики
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Apr 25, 2023 18:48
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:someone's gonna be real mad if they ever start reading contemporary informal russian and seeing how many english loanwords are in use for things that could reasonably use a word of russian origin what makes you think i'm not mad all the time
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Apr 25, 2023 19:14
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:someone's gonna be real mad if they ever start reading contemporary informal russian and seeing how many english loanwords are in use for things that could reasonably use a word of russian origin gonna go down to Бургер Кинг and get myself a juicy биг кинг
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Apr 25, 2023 19:19
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HonorableTB posted:gonna go down to Бургер Кинг and get myself a juicy биг кинг But why wouldn't you rather save some money and just pack a бутерброд in your рюкзак? 
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Apr 25, 2023 19:24
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