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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






HonorableTB posted:

gonna go down to Бургер Кинг and get myself a juicy биг кинг :v:

просто кринж бро

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Weyd
Nov 26, 2009
Can we finish with this Флешмоб and get to serious matters at hand?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Owling Howl posted:

If you wanted to attack south from Zaporizhia towards Melitopol, for instance, you might signal that you were going to cross the river in Kherson to draw Russian forces there. Russia can't entirely ignore the possibility.

I do believe the logistics of attacking across the river and maintaining and expanding a bridgehead there would be far too difficult when they have perfectly good roads in Zaporizhia as the alternative though.

An offensive might happen somewhere else entirely though - Russian occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts are just very obviously the soft underbelly, logistically speaking, and presents an opportunity to bifurcate occupied areas and put pressure on Crimea. However, although Russia has made many mistakes, on every level, it would be hubris to assume they don't realize the danger and haven't positioned forces and defenses accordingly and that might make other options more appealing to Ukrainian planners.

Russian forces seem to be thinly all over the place, with the front around Bakhmut-Vuhledar with a stronger concentration of attacking forces that have become depleted over the months. Russia will try to reinforce the army to have ready reserves, but it is likely that Ukrainians are able to seize the Dnipro delta around Kherson because that's more small scale special forces clearing islands and marshy areas stuff (with the benefit of drones so they don't have to land everywhere without knowing what's waiting for them). Which seems to have been going on for a while now so presumably they already have a good hold on the opposite banks. Russians have little ways of countering this kind of nibbling of areas because what few special forces or other light infantry trained for independent operations have been sent to the bigger slaughterhouses in Donetsk. You can't defend little islets or isolated villages by the Dnipro with clueless mobniks who can't be reinforced if something happens, they would just abandon post even before Ukrainians show.

Nevertheless it's a difficult area to cross the river enmasse because there are so many marshes and forests in the area and the few roads are easily blocked. But if Ukrainian special forces get to patrol the area freely then Russian hold on the area will start eroding as they could run into ambushes or mines in "controlled" areas. If that happened then even the slightest movement in the area would have to be a complicated armoured convoy operation like ISAF in Taliban controlled areas, even for the slightest stuff like Pte Ivanov needing to see the dentist in the next town.

According to US leak papers the offensive was marked to begin on Sunday and has been rescheduled according to Ukrainians, although the leaked documents were a bit old and it's possible that the start had already been nudged one way or another. Either way probing attacks must have already started with intent to see how strong the enemy is in different areas and how quickly they respond, and to keep them unsure about the time and location of the main push. I would vision there being two or three main prongs at first, so if one attack direction becomes stuck then they can reinforce the more viable direction. This could also happen in a staggered fashion, like the Kherson-Kharkiv offensive.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
I feel obligated to point out that someone has remarked on how інцелпостінг is comprehensible in Ukrainian (sadly can't find whom to credit), which really shows the influence of US cultural stuff (as do things like Ukrainian, or for that matter, Russian, rappers). I do wonder to what extent this happens in countries with lower familiarity with English, though.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

NPR's Tim Mak has always been a pro follow and now he's striking off on his own.

https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1650863472165650437?t=Ltx3e3MaUCU3hkc6mQH6zQ&s=19

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

OddObserver posted:

I feel obligated to point out that someone has remarked on how інцелпостінг is comprehensible in Ukrainian (sadly can't find whom to credit), which really shows the influence of US cultural stuff (as do things like Ukrainian, or for that matter, Russian, rappers). I do wonder to what extent this happens in countries with lower familiarity with English, though.

loanwords are very much a historically common thing, and while a bit of a кринж reaction when you encounter a new one is pretty normal, they're pretty much inevitable. which source language is a factor of the times, but it's something that has been happening forever, and words sorta nativize over time. nobody bats an eye at шанс or журнал anymore, even though im sure there were plenty of people in 18th and 19th century russia complaining about all the drat french loanwords (hell, Stepan Trofimovich in Demons is in part literally a parody of fancy aristocrats insisting on using french for everything). on the other end, we're pretty used to the idea of "the White House drug czar" or whatever. it's always a bit of a joke when it first shows up in either direction:

quote:

Ругались матом на английском языке,
Но это - loving trend, а значит, всё окей!

there's definitely some degree of English -> Russian -> other language lag, but it definitely happens. peak twitter nonsense moments for me include seeing some random Uzbek foreign affairs official complaining about "feiklar" or similar, from the original loan of фейки (for "fake news") into Russian from English, and then into Uzbek via chopping off the original loanword Russian plural suffix and attaching the Uzbek equivalent

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






In conclusion, using loanwords is fine and OP complaining about распутица should lighten up a bit.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
Loanwords are fine when your phone recognizes them, but if it's replacing rasputitsa to Rasputina then it's trying to tell you something

Did all you people miss the post had "rasputina" in it

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






No

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

spankmeister posted:

просто кринж бро

погодите погодите, я пропустил это

*кхе кхе*

включи свой монитор

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
:лягушкавыход:

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Гжегож Бженчищикевич

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
ГБС.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
A flash occurred to me that if cinci zoo sniper was still here this extremely fun and interesting derail into loanwords would not have been allowed to continue and everyone involved with joke loan words would eat a sixer

On topic, the counteroffensive is going well by all measures I've seen on Telegram. OPSEC is extremely tight but many of the usual information channels are insinuating success in the little that's been put out so far, all the hint-hint wink-wink type things. I imagine we're going to hear some pretty interesting things in the coming days. Everywhere that's official, semi-official, and down to "we know this channel is a confirmed surrogate for X group" is putting out the same uniform OPSEC priority messaging

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

I am going to say that all of the above is базированный кринж (not кринжовая база) and we better not delve into loanword madness further

HonorableTB posted:

On topic, the counteroffensive is going well by all measures I've seen on Telegram. OPSEC is extremely tight but many of the usual information channels are insinuating success in the little that's been put out so far, all the hint-hint wink-wink type things. I imagine we're going to hear some pretty interesting things in the coming days. Everywhere that's official, semi-official, and down to "we know this channel is a confirmed surrogate for X group" is putting out the same uniform OPSEC priority messaging

Havent seen any Z-scum on TG raise the alarm about hits on the positions which is usually an evidence and they cant keep mouths shut

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Apr 25, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
EDIT: Redacted

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

fatherboxx posted:

I am going to say that all of the above is базированный кринж (not кринжовая база) and we better not delve into loanword madness further

Havent seen any Z-scum on TG raise the alarm about hits on the positions which is usually an evidence and they cant keep mouths shut

Are those channels reporting anything at all at this time? Cause I imagine part of a counter-offensive might be precision strikes against Russian communications. So their comms might be dead/damaged, on top of the bodily harm risk to those on the other side of a hypothetical offensive.

Mederlock
Jun 23, 2012

You won't recognize Canada when I'm through with it
Grimey Drawer

Orthanc6 posted:

Are those channels reporting anything at all at this time? Cause I imagine part of a counter-offensive might be precision strikes against Russian communications. So their comms might be dead/damaged, on top of the bodily harm risk to those on the other side of a hypothetical offensive.

The absence of previous regular communications is a form of information in itself, which would likely get the RuMilblogosphere chatting. I doubt precision strikes on communications would reduce the chances of us hearing about it

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

HonorableTB posted:

On topic, the counteroffensive is going well by all measures I've seen on Telegram. OPSEC is extremely tight but many of the usual information channels are insinuating success in the little that's been put out so far, all the hint-hint wink-wink type things. I imagine we're going to hear some pretty interesting things in the coming days. Everywhere that's official, semi-official, and down to "we know this channel is a confirmed surrogate for X group" is putting out the same uniform OPSEC priority messaging

I doubt it has actually started. I think what's going on right now is preparatory, with similar diversionary attacks as before the Kharkiv offensive. That is, the actual hammer blow will land somewhere else and Ukraine is currently mostly trying to tie down Russian forces and attract reinforcements in the areas they are not targeting. Vague "offensive is going well" public statements serve that purpose.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
I remember in 2003 every time we had a KIA in the regiment we'd shut the phones home down until the family was notified. That usually took about 24 hours. When I got home I found out that most families hadn't put together the correlation between nobody in the regiment calling home and a new KIA being reported. Lack of information is definitely information, though not much other than "big things are afoot", or even "Ukraine would like Russia to think big things are afoot."

The thing is, if Ukraine has begun their counteroffensive, Russia knows. Their intelligence officers and senior commanders aren't (mostly) stupid: they can recognize reconnaissance operations, increased fires, etc.

For those watching at home, what's happening right now are a series of shaping operations: it's not the grand maneuvers and assaults civilians tend to associate with counterattacks (thanks, Hollywood!). Instead, it's things like hitting large numbers of enabling targets at the same time, conducting reconnaissance-in-force to find specific enemy locations, moving things around to see if you can make the enemy move their forces around, getting special operators or partisans in position near key bridges, etc.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
https://verstka.media/kak-putin-pridumal-voynu

A Russian investigative journalist's account of Putin's decision to go to war, with background on 2014 too. A bit more context in the tweets below:

https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1650967102793064449?s=20

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1651119060900274177

The technical final boss. Seriously though this thing looks ridiculous. Comments seem to think it would be used in a ground to ground situation. Can a single one of these even be used as AA?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

ummel posted:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1651119060900274177

The technical final boss. Seriously though this thing looks ridiculous. Comments seem to think it would be used in a ground to ground situation. Can a single one of these even be used as AA?

It's what Ukraine has been using them for, just on a mobile platform.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1556393302144040969

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


HonorableTB posted:

A flash occurred to me that if cinci zoo sniper was still here this extremely fun and interesting derail into loanwords would not have been allowed to continue and everyone involved with joke loan words would eat a sixer

On topic, the counteroffensive is going well by all measures I've seen on Telegram. OPSEC is extremely tight but many of the usual information channels are insinuating success in the little that's been put out so far, all the hint-hint wink-wink type things. I imagine we're going to hear some pretty interesting things in the coming days. Everywhere that's official, semi-official, and down to "we know this channel is a confirmed surrogate for X group" is putting out the same uniform OPSEC priority messaging

Has any kind of operation even started? I'm sure we will know once it does but my twitter feed is full of Ukrainian soldiers showing western equipment just arriving in Ukraine, being painted for camouflage or on there way to somewhere.

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



Ynglaur posted:

For those watching at home, what's happening right now are a series of shaping operations: it's not the grand maneuvers and assaults civilians tend to associate with counterattacks (thanks, Hollywood!). Instead, it's things like hitting large numbers of enabling targets at the same time, conducting reconnaissance-in-force to find specific enemy locations, moving things around to see if you can make the enemy move their forces around, getting special operators or partisans in position near key bridges, etc.

Adding to this a little bit: shaping operations are meant to push your enemy to near their breaking point. The actual assaults are what’s supposed to put them past it.

We'll probably hear bits and pieces here and there as these happen, but you also don't want to concentrate them too heavily in a single area. That'd give away your actual objective, and you want mass confusion plaguing whoever you're attacking across their entire formation.

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

Google Maps has started shutting down the accounts of all the front line activity trackers. Google says they're violating their ToS by posting "dangerous or illegal content".

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1651137599900205058?s=20

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

ummel posted:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1651119060900274177

The technical final boss. Seriously though this thing looks ridiculous. Comments seem to think it would be used in a ground to ground situation. Can a single one of these even be used as AA?

Other than looking like it came from 40k I don’t think this is actually a terrible idea? Some military knowers want to weigh in?

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Other than looking like it came from 40k I don’t think this is actually a terrible idea? Some military knowers want to weigh in?

I'm not a "military knower" but I know that your typical insurgent/militia forces have been putting this gun on a the bed of trucks for decades now. It's a big gun (50 something mm) that you can point and shoot at things to make them unalive. On a mobile platform. It's probably much better at hitting ground targets vs. Air targets since it's probably just aimed with whatever iron sights are on it. It's very primitive in 2023 but both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries are throwing everything they have at each other. Like we can laugh when Russia starts deploying ancient weapons like T55s in this war but we wouldn't be laughing if one of them was pointing it's gun at us and all we had was an AK47.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


Ahead of a predicted Ukrainian counteroffensive, Ze and Xi had a chat:
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1651208577170677761?s=20

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
Is that Xi-speak for "we're brokering peace talks", "we're not getting involved but here's a diplomat to say hi", or some triangulated position in the middle? I assume the latter

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually
It's damage control for China's ambassador to France saying in a TV interview that none of the post-Soviet breakaway nations (Estonia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.) are actually sovereign nations.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/china/china-ambassador-lu-shaye-baltic-soviet-states-europe-intl-hnk/index.html

This has set off a diplomatic shitstorm in Europe (and the post-Soviet sphere) and China is currently racing around trying to put out fires.

edit: fixed a mangled negative

FMguru fucked around with this message at 17:09 on Apr 26, 2023

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

FMguru posted:

It's damage control for China's ambassador to France saying in a TV interview that none of the post-Soviet breakaway nations (Estonia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.) aren't actually sovereign nations.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/china/china-ambassador-lu-shaye-baltic-soviet-states-europe-intl-hnk/index.html

This has set off a diplomatic shitstorm in Europe (and the post-Soviet sphere) and China is currently racing around trying to put out fires.

The hilarious part is that it technically applies equivalently to Russia (if not more so...?)

P.S. Get Russia out of Kazakhstan's permanent UNSC seat!

Edit: and the Baltic position, which US theoretically recognized, but blatantly acted against when it came time for independence, was that they were never legally part of USSR in the first place, but rather under occupation.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Apr 26, 2023

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


FMguru posted:

It's damage control for China's ambassador to France saying in a TV interview that none of the post-Soviet breakaway nations (Estonia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.) are actually sovereign nations.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/china/china-ambassador-lu-shaye-baltic-soviet-states-europe-intl-hnk/index.html

This has set off a diplomatic shitstorm in Europe (and the post-Soviet sphere) and China is currently racing around trying to put out fires.

edit: fixed a mangled negative

I've been following this and goddamn it's managed to enormous piss of former Soviet Union States along with the rest of Europe. I've heard some things saying that this was a test by Xi to see how serious they are with military defense but it just seems to have further emboldened Europe.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

ummel posted:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1651119060900274177

The technical final boss. Seriously though this thing looks ridiculous. Comments seem to think it would be used in a ground to ground situation. Can a single one of these even be used as AA?

maybe against a helicopter moving slowly?

it is kind of fascinating how much aa is being repurposed into ground to ground artillery by both sides. aa cannons as bespoke howitzers and s300s as rocket artillery

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1651183960016257026
So I'm guessing they aren't prepared for the offensive, or is it just him lying?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I've been following this and goddamn it's managed to enormous piss of former Soviet Union States along with the rest of Europe. I've heard some things saying that this was a test by Xi to see how serious they are with military defense but it just seems to have further emboldened Europe.

If you look up the interview where Lu Shaye blurted that out, it was clearly not premediated. The journalist was pushing him on Taiwan, the ambassador quickly became agitated, and the result was this haphazard whataboutism to dodge the question.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Willo567 posted:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1651183960016257026
So I'm guessing they aren't prepared for the offensive, or is it just him lying?

They took forever to finally take Bakhmut, so I'm certain that Wagner and the mobiks are at their breaking point, exhausted countless tons of ammo, fuel, and lives to take an insignificant city.

Edit: WHAT THE HELL THEY STILL HAVEN'T TAKEN BAKHMUT?! I'm still seeing news reports that Ukraine is still holding it?!

Janky The Clown
Jan 13, 2015

Willo567 posted:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1651183960016257026
So I'm guessing they aren't prepared for the offensive, or is it just him lying?

This is a clear case of both.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Paladinus posted:

If you look up the interview where Lu Shaye blurted that out, it was clearly not premediated. The journalist was pushing him on Taiwan, the ambassador quickly became agitated, and the result was this haphazard whataboutism to dodge the question.

The offence taken by European countries is largely because it's a cheap shot at China, it sounds dramatic and it's fun when professionals stuff up. If China had remained silent after old mate let his mouth slip into saying something so controversial at an otherwise uninteresting interview then it would indicate real change in China's views on former USSR states (if a bit of a weird way to announce it - as an answer to a question). Instead China came out straight away and said old mate was wrong.

His career is kaput is my guess though.

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Young Freud posted:



Edit: WHAT THE HELL THEY STILL HAVEN'T TAKEN BAKHMUT?! I'm still seeing news reports that Ukraine is still holding it?!

A small portion.

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