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Willo567 posted:So I'm guessing they aren't prepared for the offensive, or is it just him lying? Prigozhin likes to exaggerate things to try and draw supplies away from the rest of the army. Oh no, total artillery starvation! Oh no, we need supplies so badly! Please send me everything the MoD has so that I can poo poo all over the regular army later on! But also there’s a non-zero chance that the counter-offensive will just retake Bakhmut since Wagner has run itself ragged to claim most of it, and he probably does know that an influx of fresh and fully supported forces could force him to retreat. Whether that reality means this statement is laying the groundwork to blame someone else, or that he genuinely is short of supplies and could otherwise hold, I have no idea.
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Apr 26, 2023 19:10
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There's a history of Beijing probing whether FR+DE really feel all that attached to the Baltics - recall the pressure for German disinvestment from Lithuania as a tool during the Taiwan representative office spat.
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Apr 26, 2023 19:20
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:maybe against a helicopter moving slowly? Yea, there's just not much helicopter movements near the DANGER ZONE these days because there's a million things in the front already that can give headache to a chopper pilot. A more acute threat is drones, but spotting those is more a problem than bringing them down. In theory that S-60 could be connected to a radar, but somehow I doubt when it's not pictured. 57mm shells ain't much even if the salvo can be impressive (but will probably spread like a shotgun pattern at long range) and max range of 6km is slightly shorter than a 120mm mortar's. It tells that Russians too are having to look for ways to conserve artillery ammo.
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Apr 26, 2023 19:21
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Nenonen posted:Yea, there's just not much helicopter movements near the DANGER ZONE these days because there's a million things in the front already that can give headache to a chopper pilot. A more acute threat is drones, but spotting those is more a problem than bringing them down. In theory that S-60 could be connected to a radar, but somehow I doubt when it's not pictured. Stugna-P sniping hovering helicopters has been on video at least twice.
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Apr 26, 2023 19:44
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Akratic Method posted:But also there’s a non-zero chance that the counter-offensive will just retake Bakhmut since Wagner has run itself ragged to claim most of it, and he probably does know that an influx of fresh and fully supported forces could force him to retreat. Whether that reality means this statement is laying the groundwork to blame someone else, or that he genuinely is short of supplies and could otherwise hold, I have no idea. Of all the goals a potential counteroffensive could pursue, retaking Bakhmut seems like a waste. Even that comment about "cutting the flanks" seems to acknowledge that the likely aim is to find the points on the line north or south of Bakhmut that are weak and try to stage a breakthrough. The hope has to be that Russia stripped too much of its forces from elsewhere to pour into the center, kind of the same way that they pulled too much from Kharkiv to protect Kherson before that part of the front collapsed.
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Apr 26, 2023 19:54
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Some more news from the Discord leaks, this time kinda depressing news:Washington Post posted:Russia can fund its war against Ukraine for another year despite sanctions, leaked document says
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Apr 26, 2023 21:11
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Moon Slayer posted:Some more news from the Discord leaks, this time kinda depressing news: Thought we already knew the highlighted bit, we're lucky they can't access their frozen accounts.
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Apr 26, 2023 21:19
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Moon Slayer posted:Some more news from the Discord leaks, this time kinda depressing news: A year is relatively short. This is gonna turn into afghanistan redux and Im sure Putin is betting/hoping it will. Plenty of man power and T55s to stretch it out.
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Apr 26, 2023 21:31
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https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1651298534434406435 Is it just me, or does it sound like recipe for major PR disaster and not much else? Especially that Bieslan and Dubrovka Theatre proved that Russia don't really care what happens to hostages?
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Apr 26, 2023 21:52
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Szarrukin posted:https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1651298534434406435 What is the source? fake edit: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/26/azov-brigade-ukraine-war-recruits/ This is some Prigozhin level stoopid. What are the chances of Ukrainian leadership letting Azov crazies cross the border and take hundreds of civilian hostages when the very same leadership is careful not to annoy Pentagon by using some of the longer range weapons against targets within Russian Federation? At the very best I could see this as an intentional diversionary publicity, but more likely it's a nazi with mental issues offering his opinion which no one asked for.
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Apr 26, 2023 22:06
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EDIT: Apparently, this is just a Twitter rumour. I’m posting this here as Swedish NATO membership has been discussed in this thread. Turkiye has elections this year, don’t they? Erdogan seems to have had a heart attack during a live interview and isn't doing well. https://twitter.com/s8gy2aegvrhys2q/status/1651259755472601088?s=46&t=eYnb6uC9Nqku2TRAz1AKtQ https://twitter.com/301military/status/1651291999268421633?t=vjBp7Px9-rwu_jlv013xAQ&s=19 Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Apr 26, 2023 |
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Apr 26, 2023 22:44
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Major is not exactly a military rank on the level of making strategic decisions.
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Apr 26, 2023 22:46
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Mr. Apollo posted:I’m posting this here as Swedish NATO membership has been discussed in this thread. Turkiye has elections this year, don’t they? There's no serious sources reporting this claim, it's just a rumour that started on Twitter.
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Apr 26, 2023 22:49
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Brown Moses posted:There's no serious sources reporting this claim, it's just a rumour that started on Twitter.
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Apr 26, 2023 23:09
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Dolash posted:Of all the goals a potential counteroffensive could pursue, retaking Bakhmut seems like a waste. Even that comment about "cutting the flanks" seems to acknowledge that the likely aim is to find the points on the line north or south of Bakhmut that are weak and try to stage a breakthrough. The hope has to be that Russia stripped too much of its forces from elsewhere to pour into the center, kind of the same way that they pulled too much from Kharkiv to protect Kherson before that part of the front collapsed. I 100% agree with you, and if I were the commander of the Ukrainian forces instead of a random idiot I'd probably be pointing the fresh troops south to sever the land bridge. I'm just speaking in the context of that article about Prigozhin whining about how he needs more ammo, and from his perspective the only territory Wagner specifically has captured is Bakhmut, and so barring an absolute guarantee that Bakhmut will be safe from recapture, he's gonna start preemptively blaming everyone else and screaming for attention (supplies) as though it's under threat in the coming counteroffensive.
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Apr 26, 2023 23:11
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Brown Moses posted:There's no serious sources reporting this claim, it's just a rumour that started on Twitter. Remember that blue ticks are now a sign of negative credibility now
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Apr 26, 2023 23:39
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Other than looking like it came from 40k I don’t think this is actually a terrible idea? Some military knowers want to weigh in? Idk about that but I was hovering a helo in DCS and was hearing sonic booms go past my cockpit even though I was 3 miles from the front line. Then the screen went black because the front half of my helo turned to confetti. That guy. So at least it has a longer effective range than 20/30mm, theoretically.
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Apr 26, 2023 23:44
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Mr. Apollo posted:Ah, OK, that’s good to know. It seems to be all over Twitter. Well, the specific report is not credible, but it is true that Erdogan seems to be dealing with some health issues, interrupting a public appearance (IIRC due to stomach pain?) and then cancelling a bunch more...
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Apr 27, 2023 00:02
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Or, it's probably far more likely they're dangling this in the hopes that the RU military is ordered to redeploy some mobiks from southern UA and have them stationed in Belgorod where they won't get in the way of a counteroffensive. But that's just my read of the tea leaves
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Apr 27, 2023 00:32
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Moon Slayer posted:Some more news from the Discord leaks, this time kinda depressing news: I don't think any serious person is expecting this war to last anything less than another year.
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Apr 27, 2023 01:57
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US Government motion for pretrial detention of Jack Teixeira was just posted where they now detail his (laughable) efforts to hide his footprints. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255930/gov.uscourts.mad.255930.19.0_3.pdf "the Defendant’s own obstructive and deceptive acts to date compound his risk of flight and dangerousness, have undermined any counterarguments he could offer in response, and give rise to “a serious risk that such person will obstruct or attempt to obstruct justice.” "...following his arrest, authorities searched a dumpster at his residence and found a tablet, a laptop, and an Xbox gaming console, all of which had been smashed." drat, can't believe the feds checked his trash! "In November 2022, the Defendant stated that if he had his way, he would “kill a [expletive] ton of people” because it would be “culling the weak minded.” • In February 2023, the Defendant told a user that he was tempted to make a specific type of minivan into an “assassination van.” • Also in February 2023, the Defendant sought advice from another user about what type of rifle would be easy to operate from the back of an SUV. He describes how he would conduct the shooting in a “crowded urban or suburban environment.” • In March 2023, the Defendant described SUVs and crossovers as “mobile gun trucks” and “[o]ff-road and good assassination vehicles.” Very normal that he passed his security clearance checks. "Moreover, as discussed above, the Defendant had multiple weapons just feet from his bed. A search of the Defendant’s primary and secondary residences—that of his mother and father— also revealed the existence of a virtual arsenal of weapons, including bolt-action rifles, rifles, AR-and AK-style weapons, and a bazooka." That's my 2nd Amendment Bazooka please your honour.
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Apr 27, 2023 03:33
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Nenonen posted:How well Ukrainians are able to provide air defenses for the mobile vs how well Russians are able to use their air superiority will play some role in how the offensive will roll. But it's still anyone's guess what their current abilities are. There was a discussion with Arty Green (a Ukrainian artillery officer who has done some interviews) that Russian fixed and rotary wing aircraft are concentrating. My thinking is that Russia intends to use them as a tactical reserve to blunt any Ukrainian forces which breakthrough. Rust Martialis posted:Stugna-P sniping hovering helicopters has been on video at least twice.
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Apr 27, 2023 03:50
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Ynglaur posted:Literally something we train on with tank main guns, autocannons on Bradleys, and Tow missiles. Helicopters don't even need to be stationary. Yeah, the U.S. has the M830A1 multi-purpose high-explosive anti-tank round in it's 120mm ammunition inventory, largely meant for fortifications, buildings, and light vehicles. But it has a proximity fuse for engaging helicopters. 
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Apr 27, 2023 04:17
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quote:Very normal that he passed his security clearance checks. Anything this guy had access to, I guess you have to say most nations on earth could get and have. That's my only conclusion. quote:That's my 2nd Amendment Bazooka please your honour. My emotional support bazooka
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Apr 27, 2023 08:23
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https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/27/7399617/ Apparently, remains of an "unidentified military object" suspected to be air to ground rocket has been found near Bydgoszcz, Poland, over 500km from border with Ukraine. Allegedly it has "inscriptions in Russian" on it.
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Apr 27, 2023 09:16
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There's a couple more documents from the FBI with details of his chat logs and photos of his bedroom: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255930/gov.uscourts.mad.255930.19.0_3.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255930/gov.uscourts.mad.255930.19.8_2.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255930/gov.uscourts.mad.255930.19.6_1.pdf https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1651407473520136192 https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1651415461156757504 https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1651419432319688704
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Apr 27, 2023 09:22
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I can't believe brown moses doxed that man.
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Apr 27, 2023 09:29
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Glenn Greenwald explaining why assassination vans are good.
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Apr 27, 2023 09:36
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I am curious to why, since this kid seems so gung ho, he joined the ANG as a computer toucher.
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Apr 27, 2023 09:39
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Dick Ripple posted:I am curious to why, since this kid seems so gung ho, he joined the ANG as a computer toucher. Because joining the actual infantry would be harder physically, and he’s got video games to play! Seriously though, I’ve met a few of this these and they’ve always got stories/excuses why they couldn’t join the infantry somehow or another.
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Apr 27, 2023 10:06
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he doesn't seem gungho about shooting anything that shoots back
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Apr 27, 2023 10:08
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All the court docs are here https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/67189492/united-states-v-jack-douglas-teixeira/
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Apr 27, 2023 10:11
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How the in the gently caress did they guy get a clearance in the first place? Don't they talk to your friend and family?
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Apr 27, 2023 10:45
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How the in the gently caress did they guy get a clearance in the first place? Don't they talk to your friend and family? National security guy: "What can you tell us about this candidate?" Interviewee: "Oh yeah you mean the 'I wanna kill a shitzillion people to purify the world' kid, who's trying to convert a van into an assassination vehicle for his arsenal of bedside guns? That guy? The crazy dude who did all that crazy poo poo in school?" National security guy: [Nodding absentmindedly] uhuh uhuh, sure. Look it's really vital to find out if this individual was ever part of a labor union or did weed marijuana drug, or knows any hippie communists
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Apr 27, 2023 13:15
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How the in the gently caress did they guy get a clearance in the first place? Don't they talk to your friend and family? What could go wrong asking parents and self-identified friends to speak about the quality of someone's character? Hmmm
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Apr 27, 2023 13:27
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Not terribly smart, either: https://twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1651548411315757057
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Apr 27, 2023 13:31
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Young Freud posted:Yeah, the U.S. has the M830A1 multi-purpose high-explosive anti-tank round in it's 120mm ammunition inventory, largely meant for fortifications, buildings, and light vehicles. But it has a proximity fuse for engaging helicopters. Yes, though I never had that back in the early 2000s. I'm sure it's even more effective at engaging rotary-wing aircraft, but even a 120mm HEAT round can engage helicopters a couple km away. I finally had a chance to read CNA's report on Russian air power and its excellent for those who are interested in the details of the strengths and limitations of the VKS.
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Apr 27, 2023 13:36
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Vaginaface posted:What could go wrong asking parents and self-identified friends to speak about the quality of someone's character? Hmmm Isn't the point of that mainly to just raise the barrier of effort required to try and acquire a clearance under a stolen identity?
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Apr 27, 2023 13:36
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How the in the gently caress did they guy get a clearance in the first place? Don't they talk to your friend and family? I'll wager he doesn't have any non-online friends, and his family think he's a lovely sweet boy.
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Apr 27, 2023 13:38
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We won't know until further information about his particular process is uncovered, but there have been scandals over the last couple years regarding the federal background check process, which is frequently contracted out. It may be the case that it was never actually conducted.
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Apr 27, 2023 13:51
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