Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Vaginaface
Aug 26, 2013

HEY REI HEY REI,
do vaginaface!

Slashrat posted:

Isn't the point of that mainly to just raise the barrier of effort required to try and acquire a clearance under a stolen identity?

Maybe? But again, if you're trying to get a government job with a fake identity, when the FBI asks you for a list of your favorite personal contacts, you won't go "oh poo poo, they got me, better not", they'll just reference people who they think can lie convincingly.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Vaginaface posted:

Maybe? But again, if you're trying to get a government job with a fake identity, when the FBI asks you for a list of your favorite personal contacts, you won't go "oh poo poo, they got me, better not", they'll just reference people who they think can lie convincingly.

"Bob? Oh, right, we were friends in Young Pioneers at Great October school down in Boston. He deeply loves his country ".

"Oh, those drat Taxachusetts liberal commies naming schools like that! He is in".

Edit: drat it:
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1651511991381508096
... sometimes can't beat reality....

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Apr 27, 2023

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Discendo Vox posted:

We won't know until further information about his particular process is uncovered, but there have been scandals over the last couple years regarding the federal background check process, which is frequently contracted out. It may be the case that it was never actually conducted.

There was a noticeable difference when it happened. I have not been impressed when I’ve interacted with the contractors. But they did actually do interviews.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

When the leaks first blew up I kinda felt sorry for the guy because it seemed like he was only a huge idiot who had just destroyed his life in order to be a big fish in a small Discord server and impress teenagers. Now, though, him being in prison is the best outcome to all of this.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

Moon Slayer posted:

When the leaks first blew up I kinda felt sorry for the guy because it seemed like he was only a huge idiot who had just destroyed his life in order to be a big fish in a small Discord server and impress teenagers. Now, though, him being in prison is the best outcome to all of this.

I congratulate him for helping the country prevent his future mass shooting event.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Kavros posted:

I congratulate him for helping the country prevent his future mass shooting event.

The APC that showed up to arrest him makes more sense now, sure he was a soldier who just committed some intel treasons, but they knew he was already planning a shooting too. Glad he was a total idiot. Also we probably need to redefine what "background checks" mean cause they don't seem to be doing jack.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Putin has signed a law that pressures people living in occupied areas either to accept Russian citizenship or to leave.

http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/files/ru/ATH3qrAdi1MvoCAuCEO12ijX1s7jpDxN.pdf

Among other things, it sanctions deportations of 'foreign citizens' who 'may pose threat to national security of the Russian Federation, including those who support violent overthrow of constitutional order, finance or plan to finance terrorist (extremist) acts, aid in committing or commit such acts, or support terrorist (extremist) activities in any other fashion, or encroaching on public order by participating in unlawful public gathering, protests, marches'. Basically, anyone who disagrees with Russian occupation can be deported unless they become Russian citizens, in which case they'll simply go to prison for the crimes outlined above. There are some stipulations, but people with Ukrainian passports have it until June to make the decision.

On the bright side, the law also makes it easier for 'foreign citizens' to seek employment by waiving requirements for obtaining permit for work in Russia. You can safely and legally work for your occupier while weighing if you want to be deported!

E: Also, it's very timely, considering today's PACE resolution on forcible transfer of Ukrainian children.
https://pace.coe.int/en/news/9075/the-forcible-transfer-and-russification-of-ukrainian-children-shows-evidence-of-genocide-says-pace

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Apr 27, 2023

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021


What a brilliant very special boy. Let's give him classified documents clearance. Best brains

Sir Bobert Fishbone
Jan 16, 2006

Beebort
War In Ukraine CE: dw ive thought of that

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
War in Ukraine CE: I have plausible deniability

He probably thought it worked like this



Starting to get anxious about this much-telegraphed counteroffensive. UAF still holding onto the suburbs of Bakhmut?

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

The unfortunate truth is that while Ukraine has been pulling off what is very close to miracle at this point, it also badly skews the expectations. There is no guarantee that the Ukrainian counteroffensive gets anything done, similarly as it is probable that since Russia will never run out of cannon fodder they will keep pushing the front inwards, no matter how slow their progress may be.

Then again, not getting a major victory on each counteroffensive does not lose the war, and the rate of Russian progress will eventually stagnate this into another mostly passive forever war akin to Korea.

I really hope that I am wrong on this, but my hopes for super-effective counteroffensive isn't that high, especially if it is about crossing Dnepr at Kherson to tie down Russian reinforcements from Crimea while trying to cut the land bridge at Zaporizhzhia region.

Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 22:31 on Apr 27, 2023

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

OAquinas posted:

Starting to get anxious about this much-telegraphed counteroffensive. UAF still holding onto the suburbs of Bakhmut?

You're probably going to have to remain anxious for at least a week more. Conditions are very muddy.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
Norwegian Defense Command effectively pointing the finger at this Russian under-sea ops vessel for blowing up the Nord Stream 1 pipeline:

https://www.information.dk/indland/2023/04/forsvaret-bekraefter-rusland-specialfartoej-naer-nord-streams-spraengningspunkt?lst_frnt

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Orthanc6 posted:

Norwegian Defense Command effectively pointing the finger at this Russian under-sea ops vessel for blowing up the Nord Stream 1 pipeline:

https://www.information.dk/indland/2023/04/forsvaret-bekraefter-rusland-specialfartoej-naer-nord-streams-spraengningspunkt?lst_frnt

B-b-but Hersh said something else! :aaaaa:

Next you'll be telling me Glenn Greenwald is a disingenuous pundit.

poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

Der Kyhe posted:

The unfortunate truth is that while Ukraine has been pulling off what is very close to miracle at this point, it also badly skews the expectations. There is no guarantee that the Ukrainian counteroffensive gets anything done, similarly as it is probable that since Russia will never run out of cannon fodder they will keep pushing the front inwards, no matter how slow their progress may be.

Then again, not getting a major victory on each counteroffensive does not lose the war, and the rate of Russian progress will eventually stagnate this into another mostly passive forever war akin to Korea.

I really hope that I am wrong on this, but my hopes for super-effective counteroffensive isn't that high, especially if it is about crossing Dnepr at Kherson to tie down Russian reinforcements from Crimea while trying to cut the land bridge at Zaporizhzhia region.

I don't feel that Ukraine has to win the war with quick and decisive counteroffensives or risk a frozen conflict like Korea.

In the end, I think even in a long war Ukraine has the advantage. Few Russians are willing to truly suffer so that Russia can annex Pisky or Avdiivka. Ukrainian land will always be more important to Ukrainians than to Russians. There is clearly a limit to what Russia is willing to commit to this war, since their initial push was lackluster, and the following mobilisations have been weak as well. They could spend 50% of their GDP on the war, fully mobilise their economy, mobilise millions and send them to the front to learn on the job armed with AKs and shovels. If this war was terribly important to Russia, they could go full Great Patriotic War, if they wanted to. They don't, because Russian leaders understand that there is no possibility to pretend that this war is that critical to the Russian state.

It is a war started because of a miscalculation. For Russians, it's not a fight for survival. They can always go home with more or less no consequences.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good


photo from the afp of a soldier in the bakhmut area. the random thing that stood out to me is it seems like he's been issued an m16 (not a gun guy though, so ready to be corrected)

i know that small arms have been included in previous aid packages, but for some reason i kind of just assumed that ukraine had more than enough aks in storage to equip their army for years. this makes me curious if they're issuing western small arms because that's so much of the training is happening in europe, or if they're now heavily reliant on western supplies for another class of weapon

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

GhostofJohnMuir posted:



photo from the afp of a soldier in the bakhmut area. the random thing that stood out to me is it seems like he's been issued an m16 (not a gun guy though, so ready to be corrected)

i know that small arms have been included in previous aid packages, but for some reason i kind of just assumed that ukraine had more than enough aks in storage to equip their army for years. this makes me curious if they're issuing western small arms because that's so much of the training is happening in europe, or if they're now heavily reliant on western supplies for another class of weapon

Theres tons of Ukrainian soldiers using AR pattern rifles. It seems like the foreign soldiers use them a lot too.

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


OAquinas posted:

War in Ukraine CE: I have plausible deniability

He probably thought it worked like this


Well, that didnt really work either

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Orthanc6 posted:

Norwegian Defense Command effectively pointing the finger at this Russian under-sea ops vessel for blowing up the Nord Stream 1 pipeline:

[url]https://www.information.dk/indland/2023/04/forsvaret-bekraefter-rusland-specialfartoej-naer-nord-streams-spraengningspunkt?lst_frnt[/url]

This is a grievous insult that will not stand.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Charliegrs posted:

Theres tons of Ukrainian soldiers using AR pattern rifles. It seems like the foreign soldiers use them a lot too.

Yeah it isn’t like 5.56 is hard to come by. A new manufacture AR pattern is likely leagues more accurate and reliable than an AK that was made decades ago.

I’d assume that AK pattern stuff is likely being used in non-front line stuff now at this point. If for no other reason than to be able to more easily tell friend from foe.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Randarkman posted:

This is a grievous insult that will not stand.

Google's autotranslate translates some instances of "Forsvarskommandoen" with Norwegian Defense Command.

Slashrat
Jun 6, 2011

YOSPOS
"Forsvarskommandoen" literally means "The Defense Command" in both norwegian and danish, so you gotta pay attention to which language Google decides to auto-translate from.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
It may not be The Happening yet, but it looks like UAF had a field day with Russian arty. Kyiv Independent so usual fistful of salt.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1651846190667907073

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Wow 200k troops is, like, the entire active Russian military.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

NYT story on Amnesty International manipulating and burying its internal review of the controversial report on Ukraine earlier in the war:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1651870213070110721?s=20

WaltherFeng
May 15, 2013

50 thousand people used to live here. Now, it's the Mushroom Kingdom.

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Wow 200k troops is, like, the entire active Russian military.

There's not many countries in this world that can say "We destroyed the entire russian active military at least once in the entire war"

BabyFur Denny
Mar 18, 2003

WaltherFeng posted:

There's not many countries in this world that can say "We destroyed the entire russian active military at least once in the entire war"
Probably only the Nazis huh

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Pretty sure there are none that can lol

Grains or salt for everyone!!!

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

BabyFur Denny posted:

Probably only the Nazis huh

They can't, since they did not fight Russia but rather USSR.

poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Wow 200k troops is, like, the entire active Russian military.

There's the DNR and LNR too, both of which probably have taken enormous numbers of casualties. Same goes for mobilised and prisoners.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Storkrasch posted:

There's the DNR and LNR too, both of which probably have taken enormous numbers of casualties. Same goes for mobilised and prisoners.

Those two oblasts (is that the correct term?) are probably outright de-populated of military-age men at this point. It's really awful.

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002
Please remember that those are Ukr MOD report numbers, and are not, and never have been, backed up by any kind of proof.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

Nitrox posted:

Please remember that those are Ukr MOD report numbers, and are not, and never have been, backed up by any kind of proof.

It's also a casualty report, and not deaths, fwiw.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1651956499176890371

Russia shot a bunch of expensive missiles at civilians, again. 21 deaths including 4 children.

ummel fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Apr 28, 2023

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Nitrox posted:

Please remember that those are Ukr MOD report numbers, and are not, and never have been, backed up by any kind of proof.

A recent Washington Post article stated that, according to the documents leaked by Jack Teixeira, the United States' internal intelligence estimates were that Russia has suffered 189,500 to 223,000 casualties, with up to 43,000 killed, as of February 2023.

https://twitter.com/herszenhorn/status/1651939735273721856

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1651952472611516417?s=20

New RUSI report, on Russia's targeting of nuclear plants.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Nitrox posted:

Please remember that those are Ukr MOD report numbers, and are not, and never have been, backed up by any kind of proof.

They've proved to be generally accurate for a long time. It's a war, no one has precise numbers. They're as good an estimate as anybody else's and a consistent benchmark.

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002

ummel posted:

It's also a casualty report, and not deaths, fwiw

It's not a report that could be checked or scrutinized, because they explain absolutely nothing, never have. They just publish weekly numbers and that's it. So let's not take it at face value

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Deteriorata posted:

They've proved to be generally accurate for a long time. It's a war, no one has precise numbers. They're as good an estimate as anybody else's and a consistent benchmark.

No, they haven't, they state a completely ridiculous number of KIA that devalues it as a whole. Better to ignore it and leave as a morale-raising tool for Ukrainian public.

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Apr 28, 2023

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

To be fair we should be skeptical of both Russia and Ukraine's 'kill' claims. Russia's are obviously absurd, but even the Ukrainians are incentivized to overreport. No shame in that, everyone does it.

That's why you look at a variety of sources, including by third parties and open source intel. The truth is probably somewhere vaguely in between them all. We just won't know exactly where until many years afterward.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019
Ukraine did not shoot down 300 planes and 300 helicopters. Full stop.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply