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I find it odd that Russia has shot so many cruise missiles at Ukraine throughout this war but it never seems like they shoot any at the places where western Equipment gets brought in. Like I'm guessing it's not really a secret the locations on Polish/Ukrainian border where these transfers happen you'd think Russia would be hitting those places? Or is it because they fear accidentally hitting Polish territory?
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May 1, 2023 17:32
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Charliegrs posted:I find it odd that Russia has shot so many cruise missiles at Ukraine throughout this war but it never seems like they shoot any at the places where western Equipment gets brought in. Like I'm guessing it's not really a secret the locations on Polish/Ukrainian border where these transfers happen you'd think Russia would be hitting those places? Or is it because they fear accidentally hitting Polish territory? Gets too close to hitting EU territory resulting in Poland getting quite annoyed.
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May 1, 2023 17:54
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There's no point in shooting missiles at the areas the equipment passes through because you can't time the launch of a cruise missile so that it hits a moving truck or train. Further, hitting a single truck with an expensive missile is wasteful. It's better to target the storage sites where Ukraine moves the ammo. Incidentally one of the latest missiles seems to have blown up one such depot in Pavlohrad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9-RxyYb8tQ
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May 1, 2023 18:05
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Nenonen posted:.... Incidentally one of the latest missiles seems to have blown up one such depot in Pavlohrad. Thought that was just a chemical plant with a pile of decommissioned SS-24 missiles and tons of solid rocket fuel?
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May 1, 2023 18:18
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Just Another Lurker posted:Thought that was just a chemical plant with a pile of decommissioned SS-24 missiles and tons of solid rocket fuel? That's probably the way it is publicized to play it down, similarly to how some places before earlier in the war were "fireworks storages". Good stuff getting hit is demoralising and there's no upside to admitting if a military facility got hit. Unfortunately with mass rocket attacks and storages saturated with new, good equipment being prepared for an attack, something is likely to get hit
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May 1, 2023 18:37
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Just Another Lurker posted:Thought that was just a chemical plant with a pile of decommissioned SS-24 missiles and tons of solid rocket fuel? That's what it's now being reported as. I'm not sure whether they would also store actual munitions there too but there's probably some war related work going on at a place like that.
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May 1, 2023 18:42
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An update on casualties from White House National Security Council: https://twitter.com/AP/status/1653095034739122178?s=20 Also seeing more buzz about counteroffensives on Twitter today, including some attacks in Bakhmut that pushed Russians back. Still just localized skirmishes, I think. Here's an article Dana Lewis penned: https://danalewis.substack.com/p/ukraine-counter-offensive?utm_source=direct&r=dvjpc&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Tl;dr: We're still waiting and seeing, but Lewis thinks Ukraine won't try to get bogged down in the urban environments, but try to cut off Russians from resupply with a longer view of defeating Russia. Of course, the pressure is on to have success with all the new western equipment. Shes Not Impressed fucked around with this message at 19:06 on May 1, 2023 |
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May 1, 2023 19:03
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That averages out to like 650/day. Does track with Russia having manpower issues again despite all the people they mobilized.
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:17 on May 1, 2023 |
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May 1, 2023 19:15
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Shes Not Impressed posted:An update on casualties from White House National Security Council: christ, maybe i'm just ignorant but this really does seem like one of the bloodiest conflicts of the past decades. i know regional wars in africa and middle east have had huge loss of life, but usually over many years of conflict. this is getting into the iran iraq war numbers in a quarter of the time
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May 1, 2023 19:19
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Shes Not Impressed posted:An update on casualties from White House National Security Council: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1653093755774181377
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May 1, 2023 19:24
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:christ, maybe i'm just ignorant but this really does seem like one of the bloodiest conflicts of the past decades. i know regional wars in africa and middle east have had huge loss of life, but usually over many years of conflict. this is getting into the iran iraq war numbers in a quarter of the time From a historical or really any point view, it's absolutely freaking crazy. There are more casualties in less than a year than compared to the whole Vietnam war or Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
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May 1, 2023 19:26
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Vietnam was like ~60k US KIA I think
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May 1, 2023 19:29
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:From a historical or really any point view, it's absolutely freaking crazy. There are more casualties in less than a year than compared to the whole Vietnam war or Iraq and Afghanistan combined. That is definitely not true, especially if you look at the ARVN or Viet Cong numbers.
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May 1, 2023 19:31
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Popete posted:That is definitely not true. Blah, if you look a whole Ukraine war. Yes not just Bakhmut.
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May 1, 2023 19:32
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:From a historical or really any point view, it's absolutely freaking crazy. There are more casualties in less than a year than compared to the whole Vietnam war or Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Vietnamese casualties were close to a million iirc. Edit: estimates vary a lot but most out it over 2 million quote:In 1995, the Vietnamese government released its estimate of war deaths for the more lengthy period of 1955–75. PAVN and VC losses were reported as 1.1 million dead and civilian deaths of Vietnamese on both sides totaled 2.0 million. These estimates probably include deaths of Vietnamese soldiers in Laos and Cambodia, but do not include deaths of South Vietnamese and allied soldiers which would add nearly 300,000 for a grand total of 3.4 million military and civilian dead.[6] Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 19:36 on May 1, 2023 |
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May 1, 2023 19:32
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Blah, if you look a whole Ukraine war. Yes not just Bakhmut. Vietnam casualties are hard to quantify but even on the low end it's around half a million dead for the North, and 400k for the South with ~60k Americans and high estimates for the North at ~1.5 million and South ~1.1 million dead.
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May 1, 2023 19:35
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Looks like I'm way off but goddamn it's still insanely high for a war that was completely optional.
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May 1, 2023 19:38
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Jesus loving Christ, 650 dead per day would be an entire battalion rendered combat ineffective (if not destroyed outright). 4 days of that would render an entire US brigade combat team ineffective for combat ops, with 3 infantry battalions and a cav squadron (cavalry’s equivalent to a battalion). 
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May 1, 2023 19:58
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Both occupation wars of Afghanistan and the Vietnam war were bloodier, but they also lasted for 10-20 years and the bloodshed was much more one sided. Comparisons like these are limited in usefulness because the situations are so different. For example, Soviet occupation force in Afghanistan was only half of what the initial invasion force in Ukraine was but they had an absolute material edge in artillery, armour and aviation over the Mujahedeen. The occupation costed only about 2.5% of Red Army's total budget. It is beyond obvious that a foe that has tanks and artillery and even some fighters is going to kill more of your guys than tribesmen who have limited weaponry and also have to take care of their farms and herds in the meantime. We just haven't had peer to peer wars in recent times (fortunately) so there are no good points of comparison.
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May 1, 2023 20:03
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The fun math is to work out how long until Russia burns through the last mobilization wave.
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May 1, 2023 20:05
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Icon Of Sin posted:Jesus loving Christ, 650 dead per day would be an entire battalion rendered combat ineffective (if not destroyed outright). 4 days of that would render an entire US brigade combat team ineffective for combat ops, with 3 infantry battalions and a cav squadron (cavalry’s equivalent to a battalion).
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May 1, 2023 20:05
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DTurtle posted:According to that estimate it is roughly 650 casualties per day - with roughly a fifth of that being dead. So that would be 130 dead per day. Yea I confused dead/casualty (despite actually working with casualties in the past 🙃) The larger point still stands, though. 650 injured /130 dead per day would absolutely shut down a US brigade and overwhelm the medical logistics chain of them getting stabilized/sent further back for treatment.
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May 1, 2023 20:10
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DTurtle posted:According to that estimate it is roughly 650 casualties per day - with roughly a fifth of that being dead. So that would be 130 dead per day. But still, 650 casulties per day, those alive won't be back the next day to try again, so it one batallion per day on the Russian that side goes out of commission.
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May 1, 2023 20:11
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Somaen posted:That's probably the way it is publicized to play it down, similarly to how some places before earlier in the war were "fireworks storages". Good stuff getting hit is demoralising and there's no upside to admitting if a military facility got hit. Unfortunately with mass rocket attacks and storages saturated with new, good equipment being prepared for an attack, something is likely to get hit Should have though of that.  "The truth is a three edged sword".
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May 1, 2023 20:16
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I wonder if in the first Paralympics in 1960 there were any awkward moments when people who had fought on opposite sides of front in WW2 had to compete together. I know that Finnish Tauno Valkama won gold at 50 metres free-swimming for spinal cord injureds - he was wounded by shrapnel in 1943. Because future Paralympics are going to have lots of contestants from this war, I'm sure, and it's going to be conflicting to watch. Especially if Russia doesn't de-Putinize itself.
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May 1, 2023 20:23
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recently i had been thinking what a bad sign for russia that after 2 months of concentrated sustained effort they still haven't taken the entirety of bakhmut. i think it's too early to say whether this was some kind of victory for ukraine when it's not clear what their losses look like, but this continues to point to a stalemate being russia's best possible outcome from the war as long as the west can keep adequate supplies flowing. if ukraine does indeed launch an offensive and it has any level of operational success, one would think russia will be forced to reevaluate its strategy of digging in and holding out for a favorable diplomatic conclusion to the war
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May 1, 2023 20:25
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The scariest outcome to me would be that Russia just slides deeper into fascist totalitarianism and tries to brute force the war to end in a favourable way, no matter what the human cost. Either mobilizing a million man army and handing them whatever rusty Kalashnikov or Mosin-Nagant can be found, or resorting to WMD. I doubt it will get to that, but that's the nightmare scenario.
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May 1, 2023 20:44
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By the time the only thing possible is mass charging of infantry, all their actual mechanical forces are gone with no reasonable way to get them to the actual fighting.
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May 1, 2023 20:52
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Nenonen posted:The scariest outcome to me would be that Russia just slides deeper into fascist totalitarianism and tries to brute force the war to end in a favourable way, no matter what the human cost. Either mobilizing a million man army and handing them whatever rusty Kalashnikov or Mosin-Nagant can be found, or resorting to WMD. I doubt it will get to that, but that's the nightmare scenario. Russia actually tried this under Soviet-regime in the Polish-SU war and when they pushed beyond the borders of Poland to take Warsaw, their army quite literally disintegrated because the Red Army soldiers in that stage of the war had been recruited on the promise of defending the motherland, and invading and taking Poland wasn't that, so the desertion rate skyrocketed after it became clear there was no second miracle to save the Polish army and the war was basically over. If Lenin's regime, despite all the brutalities of the civil war, couldn't mobilize an army for outright invasion, modern-day Russia won't be able to pull this stunt, either. There will be no million men army getting mobilized for this shitshow, as that would make Putin look incredibly weak if the house of cards then predictably implodes.
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May 1, 2023 20:54
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ChaseSP posted:By the time the only thing possible is mass charging of infantry, all their actual mechanical forces are gone with no reasonable way to get them to the actual fighting. They have hundreds of tanks yet to mobilize!
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May 1, 2023 21:01
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Tuna-Fish posted:Depends on where it starts, but it's still kinda muddy. About a week from now sounds about right unless there is sudden torrential rain. Siri, show me russia's territorial defense resources 
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May 1, 2023 21:03
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:recently i had been thinking what a bad sign for russia that after 2 months of concentrated sustained effort they still haven't taken the entirety of bakhmut. i think it's too early to say whether this was some kind of victory for ukraine when it's not clear what their losses look like, but this continues to point to a stalemate being russia's best possible outcome from the war as long as the west can keep adequate supplies flowing. if ukraine does indeed launch an offensive and it has any level of operational success, one would think russia will be forced to reevaluate its strategy of digging in and holding out for a favorable diplomatic conclusion to the war Would a stalemate actually be better than a full withdrawal? Seems like you're just creating trouble for yourself over territory that just isn't that useful for Russia. Sure, they'll create problems in Ukraine, but those problems will apply just as much in Russia. This isn't a Transnistria or Abkhazia situation, it's a "turn your country into a global pariah in order to gain some bombed out cities with a population of traumatised pensioners who don't want to live in your country".
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May 1, 2023 21:06
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:recently i had been thinking what a bad sign for russia that after 2 months of concentrated sustained effort they still haven't taken the entirety of bakhmut. i think it's too early to say whether this was some kind of victory for ukraine when it's not clear what their losses look like, but this continues to point to a stalemate being russia's best possible outcome from the war as long as the west can keep adequate supplies flowing. “Invading army that can’t conduct meaningful offensive operations” has a nice ring to it. Doesn’t mean they can’t gently caress up a lot of things on the way out, but an invading army being put on the defensive is a few steps in the right direction.
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May 1, 2023 21:07
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Libluini posted:Russia actually tried this under Soviet-regime in the Polish-SU war and when they pushed beyond the borders of Poland to take Warsaw, their army quite literally disintegrated because the Red Army soldiers in that stage of the war had been recruited on the promise of defending the motherland, and invading and taking Poland wasn't that, so the desertion rate skyrocketed after it became clear there was no second miracle to save the Polish army and the war was basically over.   But then again I wouldn't have expected to hear that in 2023 Russia is going to let a mercenary corporation recruit prisoners to fight in a battle where their officers stand back and give instructions through tablet computers and if they try to escape they get executed or that the defense of occupied territory relies on dragon teeth and anti-tank ditches and trenches like it's 1940's.
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May 1, 2023 21:09
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Icon Of Sin posted:Jesus loving Christ, 650 dead per day would be an entire battalion rendered combat ineffective (if not destroyed outright). 4 days of that would render an entire US brigade combat team ineffective for combat ops, with 3 infantry battalions and a cav squadron (cavalry’s equivalent to a battalion). casualties, not dead. though yeah the math is basically the same for casualties and indeed that's why Russia's offensive rapidly stalled out and why they're trying a new wave of volunscription and russian nationalists are yelling about how much combat power russia pissed away for basically nothing. what a colossal loving waste of human life Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:15 on May 1, 2023 |
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May 1, 2023 21:13
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Storkrasch posted:Would a stalemate actually be better than a full withdrawal? Seems like you're just creating trouble for yourself over territory that just isn't that useful for Russia. Sure, they'll create problems in Ukraine, but those problems will apply just as much in Russia. This isn't a Transnistria or Abkhazia situation, it's a "turn your country into a global pariah in order to gain some bombed out cities with a population of traumatised pensioners who don't want to live in your country". Putin is going to be extremely reluctant to order a withdrawal. If he did it what would he have to show for the whole spectacle? The premise was that Nazi Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia, withdrawal would mean admitting either that it was a lie or that Putin can't defend Russia.
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May 1, 2023 21:14
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Herstory Begins Now posted:casualties, not dead. though yeah the math is basically the same for casualties and indeed that's why Russia's trying a new wave of volunscription and russian nationalists are yelling about how much combat power russia pissed away for basically nothing. The monarchist tears that this war is taking too long is extremely funny and familiar.
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May 1, 2023 21:15
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Nenonen posted:Putin is going to be extremely reluctant to order a withdrawal. If he did it what would he have to show for the whole spectacle? The premise was that Nazi Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia, withdrawal would mean admitting either that it was a lie or that Putin can't defend Russia. For Putin, whatever keeps him alive and in power for another year is what's best. For Russia, I don't see how any concession could be better than sanctions relief, etc. A frozen conflict wouldn't get them that, at least not for a long time.
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May 1, 2023 21:20
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:christ, maybe i'm just ignorant but this really does seem like one of the bloodiest conflicts of the past decades. i know regional wars in africa and middle east have had huge loss of life, but usually over many years of conflict. this is getting into the iran iraq war numbers in a quarter of the time It wasn't even the deadliest war of 2022. That was in Ethiopia.
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May 1, 2023 22:53
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saratoga posted:It wasn't even the deadliest war of 2022. That was in Ethiopia. i should qualify, i meant bloodiest in terms of combatant casualties, not direct violence or total disruption of vital infrastructure for non-combatants
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May 1, 2023 23:01
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