[Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($35 delivery) (with $12/mo Slice Pro subscription)

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($35 delivery) (with $12/mo Slice Pro subscription)

«‹›2883 »

(Thread IKs: skooma512)

Edgar Allan Pwned: Apr 4, 2011; Quoth the Raven "I love the power glove. It's so bad..."

drat ur a millenial with an adult child? did you have kids as teens?

# ? May 1, 2023 21:01

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 30, 2024 19:08

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Edgar Allan Pwned posted:

drat ur a millenial with an adult child? did you have kids as teens?

I�m my own adult child.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:02

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

Edgar Allan Pwned posted:

drat ur a millenial with an adult child? did you have kids as teens?

My wife is 7 years older than I am, and she had her first kid at 18 and her second at 21. (1997 and 2000 on the same day, three years and three hours apart. :v:

)

# ? May 1, 2023 21:02

i am harry: Oct 14, 2003

where are you moving again, Italy?

I had a friend move to Spain and she was telling me about this compassionate and generous program there where they let you move your parents and other family over after you�ve lived there for a while

# ? May 1, 2023 21:05

silentsnack: Mar 19, 2009; Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is the 45th and current President of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.

FlapYoJacks posted:

Possibly! That would again, be his pride getting in the way of asking for help. To be dumb and 24 again.

or maybe rather than being too proud they dismissed ["ask for money (again)"] as an assumed invalid option due to chronic stressbrain and/or learned helplessness?

# ? May 1, 2023 21:05

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

i am harry posted:

where are you moving again, Italy?

I had a friend move to Spain and she was telling me about this compassionate and generous program there where they let you move your parents and other family over after you�ve lived there for a while

Yeah. Italy is much tougher. My wife is going to have to chill in the States for a few months while I get a visa for her as well.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:07

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

silentsnack posted:

or maybe rather than being too proud they dismissed ["ask for money (again)"] as an assumed invalid option due to chronic stressbrain and/or learned helplessness?

Also a possibility. Although my SIL is a really prideful guy who wants to do everything himself and HATES asking for help.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:08

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

i am harry posted:

where are you moving again, Italy?

I had a friend move to Spain and she was telling me about this compassionate and generous program there where they let you move your parents and other family over after you�ve lived there for a while

the EU in general has decent family unification policy if you're able to migrate into the EU legally. in Switzerland there is no legal right to family unification at all, so I had move by myself and then 3 months later fill out a ton of paperwork proving that there was no way we'd ever need social assistance before my spouse could get a residence permit

e:

FlapYoJacks posted:

My wife is going to have to chill in the States for a few months while I get a visa for her as well.

drat they're even worse than Germany

# ? May 1, 2023 21:09

bvj191jgl7bBsqF5m: Apr 16, 2017; IÍÌÌ° ÍÌ¯ÌÌ«Ì¹Ì¯Ì¤AÒmÍÌºÌ© ÍÌ¬AÌ¡Ì®ÌÌ ÍÍÌ±Ì« KÌ¶eÍgÍ.ÌÌ»Ì±ÌªÍÌ¹Ì

Mr Hootington posted:

https://twitter.com/BloombergAsia/status/1653082903692165151?t=Fm3gu15Lk3ArsBz28op2IA&s=19

the age of w bonds is here

# ? May 1, 2023 21:09

bvj191jgl7bBsqF5m: Apr 16, 2017; IÍÌÌ° ÍÌ¯ÌÌ«Ì¹Ì¯Ì¤AÒmÍÌºÌ© ÍÌ¬AÌ¡Ì®ÌÌ ÍÍÌ±Ì« KÌ¶eÍgÍ.ÌÌ»Ì±ÌªÍÌ¹Ì

oh I thought that said L bond but was lowercase, joke ruined

# ? May 1, 2023 21:10

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

I thought you were making a corny "come together" joke or something

# ? May 1, 2023 21:12

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1653130223959810053?t=EAC4T5m845VNZoPTacn8FQ&s=19

🤔

# ? May 1, 2023 21:12

Gorson: Aug 29, 2014

cat botherer posted:

I�m my own adult child.

Claim yourself as a dependent on your taxes.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:12

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

Things are going poorly enough politically for Joe that he's allowing Bernie to try to raise wages to create some hype for his campaign.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:12

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

Edgar Allan Pwned posted:

drat ur a millenial with an adult child? did you have kids as teens?

Hootington is a grandpa and he�s Gen Z.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:14

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

This a reminder that the fight for a $15/hr minimum wage started in 2011.
Adjusted for the fake inflation from the feds, that's $20.13/hr in 2023.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:14

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

FlapYoJacks posted:

This a reminder that the fight for a $15/hr minimum wage started in 2011.
Adjusted for the fake inflation from the feds, that's $20.13/hr in 2023.

min wage is never getting raised above $7.25 ($2.75* in red states) in our life times

# ? May 1, 2023 21:16

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Yeah, it's absolutely hilarious how bad and outdated $15/hour is as a minimum wage target right now. It was a severe undershoot back in 2011 and it's just outright pathetic now.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:18

Gorson: Aug 29, 2014

Xaris posted:

min wage is never getting raised above $7.25 ($2.75* in red states) in our life times

Tipped employee rate still $2.33 here in WI.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:19

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1653090698466410538?s=20

# ? May 1, 2023 21:20

holefoods: Jan 10, 2022

wages need to go up enough that I can pay off my college debt by working at a gas station for a summer or two just like the boomers did and I will accept nothing less

# ? May 1, 2023 21:22

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Matt Levine's newsletter today does a great job breaking down how/why the FDIC essentially paid JP Morgan Chase to acquire First Republic. Obviously the whole system is objectively evil and rigged against everyone not insanely wealthy, but it's helpful to have a pretty orthodox account of what's actually going on.

Matt Levine posted:

Let�s start with some bank accounting. You�ve got a bank, its assets are $100 of loans, and its liabilities are $90 of deposits. Shareholders� equity (assets minus liabilities) is $10, for a capital ratio (equity divided by assets) of 10%. Pretty normal stuff.

Then the assets go down: The loans were worth $100, but then interest rates went up and now they are only worth $85. This is less than $90, so the bank is insolvent, people panic, depositors get nervous and the bank fails. It is seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which quickly looks for a healthy bank to buy the failed one. Ideally a buyer will take over the entire failed bank, buying $85 worth of loans and assuming $90 worth of deposits; borrowers and depositors will wake up to find that they are now customers of the buyer bank, but everything else is the same.

How much should the buyer pay for this? The simple math is $85 of assets minus $90 of assets equals negative $5: The buyer should pay negative $5, which means something like �the FDIC gives the buyer $5 of cash to take over the failed bank,� though it could be more complicated.

But that simple math is not quite right. If you pay negative $5 to take over a bank with $85 of assets and $90 of liabilities, you effectively get a bank with $90 of assets, $90 of liabilities and $0 of shareholders� equity. That doesn�t work. The bank, in the first paragraph, in the good times, did not have assets that equaled its liabilities; it had assets that were $10 more than its liabilities. Banks are required � by regulation but also by common sense � to have capital, that is, shareholders� equity, assets that exceed their liabilities. The buyer bank also has to have assets that exceed its liabilities, to have capital against the assets that it buys. If it is buying $85 of loans, it will want to fund them with no more than, say, $75 of liabilities. If it is assuming $90 of deposits, it will have to pay, like, negative $15 for them, which means something like �the FDIC gives the buyer $15 to take over the failed bank.�

This is a little weird. You could imagine a different scenario. The FDIC seizes the bank and sells its loans to someone � a hedge fund, or a bank I guess � for $85, which is what they are worth. Then the FDIC just hands cash out to all the depositors at the failed bank, a total of $90, which is the amount of deposits. At the end of the day there�s nothing left of the failed bank and the FDIC is out of pocket $5, which is less than $15.

The FDIC mostly doesn�t do this, though, for a couple of reasons. One is that usually banks, even failed banks, have some franchise value: They have relationships and bankers and advisers that allow them to earn money, and the buying bank should want to pay something for that. The value of a bank is not just its financial assets minus its liabilities; its actual business is worth something too. Selling it whole can bring in more moneuy.

Another reason is that this approach is far more disruptive than keeping the bank open: Telling depositors �your bank has vanished but here�s an envelope with your cash� is worse, for general confidence in the banking system, than telling them �oh your bank got bought this weekend but everything is normal.�

Also there is a capital problem for the banking system as a whole: If the FDIC just hands out checks for $90 to all the depositors, they will deposit those checks in other banks, which will then have $90 more of liabilities and will need some more capital as well. Selling the whole failed bank to another bank for $75 will cost the FDIC $15, but it will recapitalize the banking system. The goal is to have banks with ample capital, whose assets are worth much more than their liabilities; the acute problem with a failed bank is that it has negative capital; the solution is for someone to put in more money so that the system as a whole is well capitalized again. Sometimes the FDIC puts in the money.

This morning the FDIC seized First Republic Bank and sold it to JPMorgan Chase & Co. My best guess at First Republic�s balance sheet as of, you know, yesterday would be something like this:

Assets: Bonds worth about $30 billion; loans with a face value of about $173 billion but a market value of about $150 billion; cash of about $15 billion; other stuff worth about $9 billion; for a total of about $227 billion at pre-deal accounting values but only $204 billion of actual value.

Liabilities: Deposits of about $92 billion, of which $5 billion came from JPMorgan and $25 billion came from a group of other big banks, who put their money into First Republic in March to shore up confidence; the other $62 billion came from normal depositors. About $28 billion of advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank system. About $93 billion of short-term borrowings from the Federal Reserve (discount window and Bank Term Funding Program). Those three liabilities � to depositors, to the FHLB, to the Fed � really need to be paid back, and they add to about $213 billion. First Republic had some other liabilities, including a bit less than $1 billion of subordinated bonds, but let�s ignore those.

Equity: The book value of First Republic�s equity yesterday was something like $11 billion, including about $4 billion of preferred stock. [4] The actual value of its equity was negative, though; its total assets of $204 billion, at market value, were less than the $213 billion it owed to depositors, the Fed and the FHLB, never mind its other creditors.

Here is, roughly, how the sale worked:

Assets: JPMorgan bought all the loans and bonds, marking them at their market value, about $30 billion for the bonds and $150 billion for the loans. It also bought $5 billion of other assets. And it attributed $1 billion to intangible assets, i.e. First Republic�s relationships and business. [5] That�s a total of about $186 billion of asset value. JPMorgan left behind some assets, though, mainly the $15 billion of cash and about $4 billion of other stuff.

Liabilities: JPMorgan assumed all of the deposits and FHLB advances, plus another $2 billion of other liabilities, for a total of about $122 billion. (Of that, $5 billion was JPMorgan�s own deposit, which it will cancel.) The subordinated bonds got vaporized: �JPMorgan Chase did not assume First Republic Bank�s corporate debt or preferred stock.� That effectively leaves the shell of First Republic � now effectively owned by the FDIC in receivership � on the hook to pay back the roughly $93 billion it borrowed from the Fed.

Payment: JPMorgan will pay the FDIC $10.6 billion in cash now, [7] and another $50 billion in five years. It will pay (presumably low) interest on that $50 billion. [8] So the FDIC will get about $60.6 billion to pay back the Fed, plus the roughly $15 billion of cash and roughly $4 billion of other assets still left over at First Republic, for a total of about $80 billion. First Republic owes the Fed about $93 billion, leaving the FDIC�s insurance fund with a loss of $10 billion or so. �The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be about $13 billion,� says the FDIC�s announcement, though �This is an estimate and the final cost will be determined when the FDIC terminates the receivership.�

Equity: PMorgan is getting about $186 billion of assets for about $182.6 billion ($122 billion of assumed liabilities, plus $10.6 billion in cash, plus $50 billion borrowed from the FDIC), meaning that it will have about a $3.4 billion equity cushion against these assets.

the newsletter goes on with even more details

# ? May 1, 2023 21:22

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

Paradoxish posted:

Yeah, it's absolutely hilarious how bad and outdated $15/hour is as a minimum wage target right now. It was a severe undershoot back in 2011 and it's just outright pathetic now.

Any business advertising $15/hr should be treated as a pariah, but lol capitalism. Minimum wage should be, no joke, at least $30/hr right now.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:23

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

holefoods posted:

wages need to go up enough that I can pay off my college debt by working at a gas station for a summer or two just like the boomers did and I will accept nothing less

this is essentially correct

# ? May 1, 2023 21:23

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

holefoods posted:

wages need to go up enough that I can pay off my college debt by working at a gas station for a summer or two just like the boomers did and I will accept nothing less

# ? May 1, 2023 21:23

Wraith of J.O.I.: Jan 25, 2012

: )

# ? May 1, 2023 21:29

skooma512: Feb 8, 2012; You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

holefoods posted:

wages need to go up enough that I can pay off my college debt by working at a gas station for a summer or two just like the boomers did and I will accept nothing less

... I wonder why wages are never raised by Congress and the Fed spikes interest rates the second they go up naturally :nsa:

# ? May 1, 2023 21:30

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Wraith of J.O.I. posted:

: )

It won't happen because it is the greatest edging, but lmao if it does happen.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:32

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

skooma512 posted:

... I wonder why wages are never raised by Congress and the Fed spikes interest rates the second they go up naturally

woah woah woah you're dangerously close to arriving at the same kind of thinking as this horrific post

Pepe Silvia Browne posted:

hey just a gthought but could inflation be caused by all the money these rich assholes keep in accounts that don't circulate through the economy and just accumulate, forcing more currency to be printed?

# ? May 1, 2023 21:33

zetamind2000: Nov 6, 2007; ~~I'm an alien.~~

Wraith of J.O.I. posted:

: )

Buy i bonds

# ? May 1, 2023 21:35

fits my needs: Jan 1, 2011; Grimey Drawer

what happened to infinite money

# ? May 1, 2023 21:36

Dystopia Barbarian: Dec 25, 2022; by vyelkin

FlapYoJacks posted:

Any business advertising $15/hr should be treated as a pariah, but lol capitalism. Minimum wage should be, no joke, at least $30/hr right now.

Yep, that's about right. Minimum wage stopped keeping pace with inflation around 1968.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:37

JAY ZERO SUM GAME: Oct 18, 2005; Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.

fits my needs posted:

what happened to infinite money

it will run out on june 1st, cant you read

# ? May 1, 2023 21:37

Wraith of J.O.I.: Jan 25, 2012

fits my needs posted:

what happened to infinite money

#MintTheCoin

# ? May 1, 2023 21:38

Beached Whale: Jun 27, 2009; The world as will and idea

Literally forgoing all of my other expenses for 4 months as a minimum wage worker so I can enjoy a day at the most ✨ magical place on earth ✨

https://twitter.com/TerribleFinance/status/1652117529500831744

# ? May 1, 2023 21:39

Glumwheels: Jan 25, 2003; https://twitter.com/BidenHQ

Beached Whale posted:

Literally forgoing all of my other expenses for 4 months as a minimum wage worker so I can enjoy a day at the most ✨ magical place on earth ✨

https://twitter.com/TerribleFinance/status/1652117529500831744

Lol, sorry kids I�m never taking you here.

We�ll go vacation somewhere else that�s much nicer and more relaxing and costs way less

# ? May 1, 2023 21:43

silicone thrills: Jan 9, 2008; I paint things

Beached Whale posted:

Literally forgoing all of my other expenses for 4 months as a minimum wage worker so I can enjoy a day at the most ✨ magical place on earth ✨

https://twitter.com/TerribleFinance/status/1652117529500831744

Like the 7th episode of extrapolations focuses on a couple who spends 6 months worth of their spending money for a nice meal and I think its supposed to be shocking but people basically already do this with Disney already so there's nothing surprising to me about it.

# ? May 1, 2023 21:44

actionjackson: Jan 12, 2003

doing my stanford first day orientation, there was a slide where it said something about addressing the most pressing issues

so first it's actual good stuff like first heart-lung transplant

but then it's all SV including the shot of receding hairline elon and paypal lol

# ? May 1, 2023 21:48

Poco: Jul 17, 2005; ....I am a Tariff Man

Beached Whale posted:

Literally forgoing all of my other expenses for 4 months as a minimum wage worker so I can enjoy a day at the most ✨ magical place on earth ✨

https://twitter.com/TerribleFinance/status/1652117529500831744

Lol I know it's kids but my partner and I saved for a year to go to universal for a week (neither of us have been on a vacation in our adult lives) and the total cost for 7 days was $700 less; this is including tickets, flights, meals, etc . I can't imagine spending that much in 1 DAY

# ? May 1, 2023 21:49

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 30, 2024 19:08

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

$800 lightsabers

# ? May 1, 2023 21:56

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($35 delivery) (with $12/mo Slice Pro subscription)

«‹›2883 »