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psydude posted:In case anyone didn't catch it the first time around, that's just in Bakhmut. i'm glad you said this because i sure as gently caress didn't, holy macaroni
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May 2, 2023 00:27
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psydude posted:In case anyone didn't catch it the first time around, that's just in Bakhmut. Kith posted:i'm glad you said this because i sure as gently caress didn't, holy macaroni Shes Not Impressed posted:A little clarification on the Kirby comment courtesy of Kofman:
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May 2, 2023 00:59
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Even after that clarification, ~10k dead in 3 months is still insane.
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May 2, 2023 07:17
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psydude posted:Even after that clarification, ~10k dead in 3 months is still insane. for comparison US KIA in vietnam peaked around 500/mo and that almost destabilized society
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May 2, 2023 08:30
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shame on an IGA posted:for comparison US KIA in vietnam peaked around 500/mo and that almost destabilized society Almost like the figures they're issuing are bullshit. Guess we'll see, if the ukr figures are even ballpark correct it'll look like Kharkiv all over again E: https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1653084730739548160 Pretty cool, most of the remote setups so far seemed to use Xbox controllers BrotherJayne fucked around with this message at 08:37 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 08:34
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BrotherJayne posted:Almost like the figures they're issuing are bullshit. If they're off by a factor of ten, that's still as many dead per month as the US in Vietnam, but in a smaller country (roughly 145 million in Russia now, and 200 million in late 60s USA). And I don't think they're that far off. Of course, Russia is a very different society - it would take a lot more to cause any notable instability there.
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May 2, 2023 08:58
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orange juche posted:Quantity is a quality all its own is one of the most disgusting sayings ever because the side with the more technically superior equipment is going to make mincemeat of the opposing side, sometimes literally. Well, there is a famous saying about that. "Whatever happens, we have got, the Maxim gun, and they have not." Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 00:39 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 10:18
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BrotherJayne posted:Almost like the figures they're issuing are bullshit. The UKR estimates have been way higher than the US and UK estimates. In that sense, the US numbers are likely more conservative than reality.
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May 2, 2023 10:46
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Computer viking posted:Of course, Russia is a very different society - it would take a lot more to cause any notable instability there. I mean, things are getting bombed, set on fire, and otherwise destroyed there at a seemingly high rate. I think there was always some of this going on though, we’re just hearing more about it. Particularly things like the power going out because a substation decided to let the magic smoke out, that deferred maintenance was always going to catch them sooner or later.
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May 2, 2023 11:44
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E: NM
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May 2, 2023 13:44
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https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1653206573609566208?s=20
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May 2, 2023 14:02
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It's clearly no coincidence that Putin's biggest cheerleader just got fired from Fox News a week ago.
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May 2, 2023 14:23
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madeintaipei posted:You should have seen the ferrets at the end of it! Blood red from nose to front legs. Happy and chittering. Furiously cleaning themselves then passing out on top of the equally tuckered out dog. I never knew something could sound so horrific and so adorable at the same time.
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May 2, 2023 14:46
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psydude posted:The UKR estimates have been way higher than the US and UK estimates. In that sense, the US numbers are likely more conservative than reality. The US and Israeli estimates seem in line with the artillery disparity. Regardless, if the casualties are anything like the UK or UA figgies, hopefully there is a front wide collapse and peace before the end of the year
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May 2, 2023 16:56
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Charlz Guybon posted:Well, there is a famous saying about that. Icon Of Sin posted:I mean, things are getting bombed, set on fire, and otherwise destroyed there at a seemingly high rate. I think there was always some of this going on though, we’re just hearing more about it. Particularly things like the power going out because a substation decided to let the magic smoke out, that deferred maintenance was always going to catch them sooner or later. I doubt we'll truly know for decades, but that's my impression as well - some of it is probably sabotage, but a lot is just a lot of normal-for-Russia incidents that'd normally pass without notice. Computer viking fucked around with this message at 17:01 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 16:59
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BrotherJayne posted:Regardless, if the casualties are anything like the UK or UA figgies, hopefully there is a front wide collapse and peace before the end of the year I don't think we're getting peace even if Russia is pushed back to the internationally recognized borders, I expect the Russians are going to keep lobbing artillery shells and missiles at Ukraine even afterwards.
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May 2, 2023 16:59
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PurpleXVI posted:I don't think we're getting peace even if Russia is pushed back to the internationally recognized borders, I expect the Russians are going to keep lobbing artillery shells and missiles at Ukraine even afterwards. Really I think the only way this truly ends is if Putin falls out a window, some new guy comes in and decides that the Russian economy is going to be in shambles for the next fifty years if they keep being dicks and calls it off so they can get off the sanctions list.
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May 2, 2023 17:15
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Cimber posted:Really I think the only way this truly ends is if Putin falls out a window, some new guy comes in and decides that the Russian economy is going to be in shambles for the next fifty years if they keep being dicks and calls it off so they can get off the sanctions list. Yes, and within decade there will be a cabinet coup where this new leader dies "naturally" and the imperialists take over, or the new leader degenerates into a drunken husk while the Putin-worshiping prime minister who yearns the glory years of early-2000's takes over.
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May 2, 2023 17:22
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Odds are that anyone who takes over directly from Putin will be generally a worse, less competent person.
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May 2, 2023 17:24
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Or a worse, MORE competent person. The Pence scenario, if you will.
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May 2, 2023 17:27
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Mzuri posted:Or a worse, MORE competent person. The Pence scenario, if you will. He's killed all of those already.
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May 2, 2023 17:30
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:He's killed all of those already. This. All the competent ones fled or were killed.
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May 2, 2023 17:36
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I am hardly a Kremlinologist, but it seems to me they are currently on a no-breaks downhill radicalisation slope. Putin may be a True Believer dipshit, but the people vying for his attention are even MORE True Believer. There's nobody who can say "uh guys, there's a cliff coming up" without getting branded a "russophobe" or "anti-Russian". Choo choo, we are on the Acceleration train. The only way I can see it stopping is via a horrific train crash when the whole nation derails. e: That scenario is also what European leaders are terrified of. The takeaway from Scholz' and Macron's calls with Putin is "oh poo poo, Putin actually believes this nonsense and reality doesn't penetrate at all". Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 17:40 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 17:36
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Odds are that anyone who takes over directly from Putin will be generally a worse, less competent person. Khrushchev scenario may not be the worst thing happening here. “Death of Stalin 2: Putin on ice”
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May 2, 2023 17:48
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There are a number of factions which could take over in the event Putin dies peacefully in his sleep while falling out of a window. - the technocrats - Mikhail Mishushtin (prime minister), Elvura Nabiullina (central bank head). These are the people who would lead Russia back to something approaching normalcy and solvency. They have absolutely no power base and no chance of taking power. - the loyalists - Sergei Shoigu (defense minister), Sergei Lavrov (foreign minister), Dmitriy Medvedev (whatever he's doing now). These are people who owe everything they have to Putin liking them and are wildly corrupt. They have some minor power base but almost certainly will not take power and instead will be the scapegoats for everything bad that happened. - the spies - Nikolai Patrushev (head of national security council), Alexander Bortnikov (head of FSB). These are the people who know where all the bodies are buried and are most likely to take over. However they will last in that role about as long as Lavrenty Beria did after Stalin's death. - the warlords - Yevgeny Prigozhin (head of Wagner PMC), Ramzan Kadyrov (proconsul of Chechnya), Dmitiry Rogozin (professional troll). These guys have their own private militias and no matter who takes over in Moscow they will have guns and a veto. Will almost certainly in the short term cause massive instability. Hell, even Gazprom has their own militia now. - the dissidents - Navalny et. al. They have no chance whatsoever of taking power unless a massive revolution/civil war happens. Basically in the event of Putin dying suddenly, Russia is going to very quickly look like a nuclear-armed Syria.
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May 2, 2023 17:58
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Girkin shall arise
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May 2, 2023 17:59
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Dandywalken posted:Girkin shall arise you mean the dude who couldn't even last in the DPR without getting turfed out is going to take over all of Russia
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May 2, 2023 18:05
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What not? 2023 has to top 2022 somehow.
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May 2, 2023 18:08
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Lum_ posted:you mean the dude who couldn't even last in the DPR without getting turfed out is going to take over all of Russia Believe it.
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May 2, 2023 18:10
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Lukashenko has been wanting this for decades.
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May 2, 2023 18:15
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PurpleXVI posted:I don't think we're getting peace even if Russia is pushed back to the internationally recognized borders, I expect the Russians are going to keep lobbing artillery shells and missiles at Ukraine even afterwards. *irony alarm starts going off*
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May 2, 2023 18:23
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Speaking of Russian opposition, here's an interesting enough news article. It's from Aftenposten, a centrist and mostly boring-in-the-good-way Norwegian newspaper, who still have people in Russia. Source (paywalled; Norwegian) quote:Peer Kristian Aale, Moscow correspondent for Aftenposten Computer viking fucked around with this message at 18:31 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 18:25
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CommieGIR posted:This. All the competent ones fled or were killed. This really isn't true. Putin has only really gone after people solidly outside of his own power structure. People within it are safe under his roof, to use a Russianism, and Putin is already enough of a figurehead that much of the actual administering of the country is done by other people. There's a lot of room for someone generally more competent and less out of touch to replace him and I think it would be genuinely foolish to assume that whoever follows Putin is going to be similarly incompetent. Putin has pissed away more combat power and several decades of military buildup and modernization for about a hundred mile ribbon of land in a spectacularly ill-conceived war. From a foreign/NATO perspective, one of the biggest ongoing risks of this war, both at Putin's level and in the leadership of the Russian military is that some of the most useless or actively counter-productive people get forced out and replaced with people even a bit more interested in doing their jobs. 'Worse and more competent' is a very real possibility at almost every level, especially when you're talking about replacing people who have been using their positions to steal everything possible. As a pretty vivid example of this, look at the months where Surovikin was in charge (which Russia spent consolidating it's positions, preserving and strengthening its forces, establishing the mobilization/training pipeline and withdrawing from suicidal positions to hold etc.) and his subsequent replacement with Gerasimov who promised a big flashy offensive that would finally turn the war around.
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May 2, 2023 18:39
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I'm still of the opinion that once Putin falls almost every notable on that list is either going to catch a bullet or a window until you're down to mid level bureaucrats and mobsters who are somewhat confident and charismatic stepping into roles. People like that don't inspire loyalty there will be a purge and counter purge once things kick off.
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May 2, 2023 18:44
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most kremlinologists that I've seen discuss it seem to expect some sort of arrangement to be worked out between, essentially, the security state powers that be and the more competent administrative technocrats already running much of Russia, though the likelihood of that depends a lot on the circumstances of Putin leaving power.
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May 2, 2023 18:57
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Computer viking posted:Speaking of Russian opposition, here's an interesting enough news article. It's from Aftenposten, a centrist and mostly boring-in-the-good-way Norwegian newspaper, who still have people in Russia. Thanks for the article, this was the "highlight" for me: quote:This week, a policeman was sentenced to seven years in jail for having criticized the war in a private phone call. The government attorney argued that the conversation was public because it was being wire tapped.
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May 2, 2023 21:04
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EasilyConfused posted:Thanks for the article, this was the "highlight" for me: I was hoping someone would notice that - it's some next level legal argumentation.
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May 2, 2023 21:08
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EasilyConfused posted:Thanks for the article, this was the "highlight" for me: This reminds me of the time Germany fined a guy 5000 euros for flipping off the police. He wasn't actually flipping off the police, he was flipping off a guy who was passing him at high speed. This triggered a speed camera, which caught the exact moment the guy flipped the bird. And the courts argued that he had insulted the cops reviewing the photo of the other guy speeding and had to apologize to them.
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May 2, 2023 21:18
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Lum_ posted:There are a number of factions which could take over in the event Putin dies peacefully in his sleep while falling out of a window. Very good and informative, thank you! Although one addition: There is no way Shoigu or Kadyrov becomes anything more than scapegoats, because they aren't considered Russians, but people from minorities. Kadyrov has the muscle, but there is absolutely no chance that Rosgvardia leaders after Putin accept him as anything else than a regional warlord working for the boss man.
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May 2, 2023 21:46
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Der Kyhe posted:Very good and informative, thank you! Then you just remove the leaders that won't accept you, this is dictatorship 101
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