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fatherboxx)
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For what it's worth, Zelenskyy has denied that they had anything to do with the attack.AP posted:President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on an unannounced visit to Helsinki for talks with the leaders of five Nordic countries, denied any role in the attack.
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May 3, 2023 17:32
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1653772579901956096 Not always lately.
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May 3, 2023 17:34
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Kikas posted:I am a huge fan of this myth as I am 100% cetrain that pen and paper shitposting was totally a thing It's an excellent myth. Here's a reading of the letters involved, the painting is of the Cossacks composing the reply. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQTlT8-qYUk
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May 3, 2023 17:36
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Xtronoc posted:Simplest way to see if Russia did it is to see what kind of captured "suspects" or "evidence" they have tomorrow. If the proof was as ridiculous as 3 copies of Sims 3 like last time, then we know. Yeah, we all know that it's the green wig that really seals the deal about Ukraine being behind the false flag operation against the real flag.
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May 3, 2023 17:47
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Chalks posted:It's such a weird attack that it's very difficult for anyone to tell at this point. The strategic impotence of it points in both directions. They blew up the flag on top of the symbol of Russian government authority shortly before the Victory Day parade. If they do the parade at all, it's going to be the handful of modern tanks they can still scape together rolling in front of a bomb damaged building. This is obviously meant to emasculate Putin and underscore how badly he has mismanaged the country's defense in front of the Russian elite.
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May 3, 2023 17:49
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WarpedLichen posted:Does it have to be either (as in a state sponsored attack) - could it just be unsanctioned partisan/terrorist attack? On that note, it's even possible that it was done by people who don't support Ukraine but by Russian nationalists. Girkin types who want to embarrass Shoigu et al and force changes in command. I know this sounds  as hell but technically it would be easy to do and there definitely are enough desperate nazis in Russia who might come up with such a genius plan.
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May 3, 2023 17:53
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The issue with Russian first aid quality is not that they are getting bandages from the mid-20th century. The issue is that those bandages seem to be the full extent of individual first aid kits in many cases. Even the old US kits I used were wrapped in a strong plastic, which meant you could use that to treat a sucking chest wound (not ideal, but it worked in a pinch). The new IFAK kits are just  better.fatherboxx posted:Government press service officially Correction mine. The biggest problem with this video is the fireball. Military explosives don't do that: gasoline and petrol-based explosives do. Gasoline is great for engines because it releases energy relatively slowly compared to, say, high explosives, but it's less energy-dense. So, either an amateur operation, or the point of the operation was to make something visually dramatic (in addition to or in support of whatever underlying intent). It could be internal dissidents as much as it could be a false flag, but I think it highly unlikely it's an official Ukrainian operation. (I don't mean to imply that you were saying it was, though, fatherboxx).
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May 3, 2023 17:58
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WarpedLichen posted:Does it have to be either (as in a state sponsored attack) - could it just be unsanctioned partisan/terrorist attack? To make it clear I am thinking unsanctioned partisans, again of either Russian or Ukrainian variety. But I think more likely Russian partisans cause Ukrainians in Russia would probably be more concerned with increased retaliation against their family and friends back in Ukraine, whereas Russian partisans would not care about that and would only be concerned about humiliating the government, which this does. I agree Russia doesn't need any excuse to attack Zelenskyy or attack more civilian targets, or escalate the war in any other way, they've been doing all of that from the start just fine with no provocation. So there's nothing to gain for the Russian government doing this to itself. Nord Stream was different; that showed that Russia could sever key infrastructure, damaged Germany's economy, and was a middle finger to the current alignment of European powers.
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May 3, 2023 18:07
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Meanwhile Russia has murdered at least 17 civilians in shelling in Kherson area today, including of a supermarket. That, of course, is less newsworthy than utterly laughable "assassination attempt" claim.
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May 3, 2023 18:17
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Paladinus posted:Not always lately. Could you elaborate a bit?
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May 3, 2023 18:19
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After seeing that video of the drones hitting the Kremlin am I the only that was reminded of the Roger Waters and Iron Maiden concerts where they would have a WW2 plane on a Zipline that would crash into the stage?
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May 3, 2023 18:22
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Ynglaur posted:Correction mine. The biggest problem with this video is the fireball. Military explosives don't do that: gasoline and petrol-based explosives do. Gasoline is great for engines because it releases energy relatively slowly compared to, say, high explosives, but it's less energy-dense. https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1653762654656249862?s=20 https://twitter.com/broe_jake/status/1653804139036676096?s=20 Do these two explosions look significantly different to you? Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 18:27 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 3, 2023 18:25
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I get why people think it's likely a false flag and I don't think that's wrong to think, but also this is exactly, literally the kind of thing Bydanov has been fantasizing about doing for 6 months. Doubly so now as Ukraine has been trying to signal that Russia needs to shift manpower to defend it's rear. imo Russian mod having a line on this from the start isn't really indicative of much because of course they're going to. you can message/suppress/ignore stuff that happens in a border region just fine, but if a drone hits the kremlin every Russian is going to hear about that in the next 24 hours. Still, I share in the suspicion at just how ready to go with the 'the last time Moscow was attacked was in 1942' stuff they were. On the other hand, Russian nationalists have been yelling lately that Russia needs to defend its rear areas or they will be used at will to launch attacks, which does seem quite a conspicuously timed warning in retrospect in conclusion: who the gently caress knows Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:07 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 3, 2023 18:33
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I'm not confident in any particular interpretation, but the delay and lack of multi-channel pushing from Russian state media makes me think a false flag is less likely.
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May 3, 2023 19:44
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I doubt this could rile up the Russian people or anyone could think it would. There's far better options for that such as apartment blocks. It's symbolic as an attack on state power and embarressing for the security forces though - two things Putin leans heavily on for power. Seems pretty far down the list of things Putin would authorize for a false flag.
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May 3, 2023 19:46
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OddObserver posted:Meanwhile Russia has murdered at least 17 civilians in shelling in Kherson area today, including of a supermarket. That, of course, is less newsworthy than utterly laughable "assassination attempt" claim. Up to 21 deaths and 48 wounded now. I'm sure there was some NATO humvees parked underneath the supermarket or something though. 
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May 3, 2023 20:04
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So it goes. Every day this illegit war continues, civilians including children keep on dying and otherwise suffering, and men and women of service age get being fed into the shredder. That's why it's not news. It happens so often. Sad news aren't the saddest thing, it's the regular sad events that are no longer even news.
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May 3, 2023 20:14
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New US aid package that's been hinted at: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3383288/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ Looks like it's mostly ammo, so sending the latest batch straight from the factory?
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May 3, 2023 20:21
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WarpedLichen posted:New US aid package that's been hinted at: The offensive is expected to be picking up any day now so now it's definitely more important to praise the Lord and pass the ammo than to send some new system that takes months to train people to use.
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May 3, 2023 20:31
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I thought this was neat, a Ukrainian farmer built a remote controlled mine roller using a tractor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu6GV8BQwJs
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May 3, 2023 20:53
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Willo567 posted:Could you elaborate a bit? They are a small org that previously used to have a very narrow focus on the prison system. Now that they've expanded to also covering the war, they simply aren't capable of vetting their sources as effectively. They are not quite on the Nexta/Unian level yet, but once in a while they now publish something very sensationalist from 'anonymous sources'.
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May 3, 2023 20:54
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Djarum posted:The more I am seeing on this the more it seems like this is a false flag by Russia. If Ukraine had the ability to orchestrate such an attack they certainly wouldn’t waste it on a random attack to destroy a flag. They would save it to either take out a high value target or cause major disruption. Nor would they waste the considerable resources it would take to pull off something like this. This doesn’t follow their MO at all. It does follow the pattern of amateurish stunts that Russia does. Wouldn't it be more likely that this was an unsuccessful attempt to take out a high value target (presumably Putin) than a successful attack on a flag? In any case: Herstory Begins Now posted:in conclusion: who the gently caress knows
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May 3, 2023 20:58
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EasilyConfused posted:Wouldn't it be more likely that this was an unsuccessful attempt to take out a high value target (presumably Putin) than a successful attack on a flag? If they managed to get two drones that close, surely they would have known that Putin isn't usually anywhere near that building at that hour. Whatever the intention was, it wasn't to kill Putin.
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May 3, 2023 21:01
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EasilyConfused posted:Wouldn't it be more likely that this was an unsuccessful attempt to take out a high value target (presumably Putin) than a successful attack on a flag? No. It had basically zero chance of taking out anyone -value, unless that person decided for some reason to spend their night sitting on a roof near a flag.
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May 3, 2023 21:01
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Paladinus posted:If they managed to get two drones that close, surely they would have known that Putin isn't usually anywhere near that building at that hour. Whatever the intention was, it wasn't to kill Putin. Yeah my thought only makes sense if there was some intelligence they had that indicated Putin was planning to be at a specific spot at a specific time. OddObserver posted:No. It had basically zero chance of taking out anyone -value, unless that person decided for some reason to spend their night sitting on a roof near a flag. I was assuming that they weren't trying to hit the roof and got shot down on the way to some other part of the complex.
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May 3, 2023 21:12
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EasilyConfused posted:Wouldn't it be more likely that this was an unsuccessful attempt to take out a high value target (presumably Putin) than a successful attack on a flag? Well if you have intelligence that Putin or someone else of that level would be at the Kremlin your wouldn’t attack the building with something of that power. The idea would be to hit them while they are moving from the building to transport optimally. This was basically all show and no go. If Ukraine was doing it I would venture to think they would use some sort of plastic explosive to maximize the explosion along with adding in shrapnel if it was designed to target an individual. From the explosion it certainly seems like it was some sort of a fuel bomb. Which if I were wanting to make a show attack would be what I would use. Big pretty explosion which if in the air does little and wouldn’t effect a building basically at all, let alone something hardened like the Kremlin.
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May 3, 2023 21:49
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Paladinus posted:If they managed to get two drones that close, surely they would have known that Putin isn't usually anywhere near that building at that hour. Whatever the intention was, it wasn't to kill Putin. Yeah, everybody and their dog knows Putin doesn't sleep in the Kremlin. And the Ukrainians most certainly do. I don't think this has much value to them, seeing as Russia is most definitely is going to use this as an excuse to get even more horrible: 'Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said the overnight drone attack on the Kremlin left Moscow with no options but to “eliminate” Zelenskiy and his “clique” in Kyiv.'
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May 3, 2023 21:51
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Short of nukes what can they really do that they haven’t already done? Murder civilians and try to assassinate Zelenskiy? Wow, bold new tactic.
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May 3, 2023 22:12
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So Zelensky was in Finland today. He flew there with a Dutch government plane, which seemed a bit strange at the time but it's now been confirmed that he's on his way to The Netherlands and will meet the prime minister tomorrow, and possibly make a speech in The Hague. It's notable because tomorrow The Netherlands has it's remembrance day, where victims of the second world war and all the wars afterwards are commemorated. So it has a symbolic meaning. I don't know if Zelensky will speak at the event itself (which is always in Amsterdam instead of The Hague), but nevertheless it's a big deal for the Dutch.
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May 3, 2023 22:15
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I have zero expertise but watching that video my first thought was some anti-drone defenses on the roof took it out. It looked like it was going towards something then just went up. I would assume the Kremlin probably does have some sort of anti-drone system?
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May 3, 2023 22:23
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there's at least 3 pantsir systems in the immediate vicinity
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May 3, 2023 22:25
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Russia's arms exports are crashing hard, removing a major source of foreign income at a time the country could really use it: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/03/russia-arms-sales-weapons-exports-worldwide-ukraine-war/ quote:Russia’s Boom Business Goes Bust
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May 3, 2023 22:31
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Herstory Begins Now posted:there's at least 3 pantsir systems in the immediate vicinity On that note, Russian air defenses actually firing at these would have been extremely obvious and more destructive than those tiny payloads.
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May 3, 2023 22:34
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I can't imagine any benefit Ukraine would get from attacking the Kremlin. All it would do is alienate skittish allies and help unify the Russian public, especially if the attack managed to do any real damage. My wild guesses are either an anti-drone system test serving double duty as PR, or the work of a Ukrainian group that Kyiv doesn't control. If it's an earnest attack or a false flag, it's really half-assed.
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May 3, 2023 22:35
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Warbadger posted:On that note, Russian air defenses actually firing at these would have been extremely obvious and more destructive than those tiny payloads. Right I don't think they'd open up with 30mm auto cannons well it was flying right next to the building they are meant to protect.
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May 3, 2023 22:43
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Personally, I'm really impressed whoever it was, hit the centre of the target on the flag itself. It's barley 2 meters wide!
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May 3, 2023 22:43
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Comstar posted:Personally, I'm really impressed whoever it was, hit the centre of the target on the flag itself. remarkable guidance in an area where gps is heavily jammed 24/7
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May 3, 2023 23:23
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Semi-regular reminder to engage in less Clancy (nuke) chat, and more..... not-nuke chat? Whatever, there's almost always something else going on in Ukraine that doesn't require discussion of things that won't happen.
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May 3, 2023 23:54
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Comstar posted:Personally, I'm really impressed whoever it was, hit the centre of the target on the flag itself. I used to bullseye flagpoles with my COTS drone back home, they’re wayyyy smaller than 2 meters.
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May 3, 2023 23:57
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| # ? Jun 1, 2024 14:54 |
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reads non-state actors to me, the type who'd get off on just being able to successfully launch an attack against a symbolic target
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May 3, 2023 23:58
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