(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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There's absolutely no evidence to suggest that that's the case at all, so it's probably just as likely as anything else folks are proposing.
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May 4, 2023 16:07
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| # ? Jun 1, 2024 10:47 |
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Ubik_Lives posted:I guess I'm alone in this theory, but I assumed it was a warning against messing with the Victory Day parade in Moscow. If Ukraine was thinking of sending over a drone to glitter bomb Russian soldiers blue and yellow, they know that Russia will take this as an assassination attempt against Putin and go nuts. It seemed to me like a message to Ukraine to not embarrass them, without the embarrassment of having to ask that. Sorry, it seems you need to shave with occams razor here, this is some extreme 5th dimensional chess
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May 4, 2023 16:23
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Chalks posted:You may be correct, but I don't think the mere capacity for one side to act irrationally tips the balance of probability here. Their previous mistakes have been easy to explain with poor intel and corruption, here we need to leap to them successfully pulling off a complex operation that simply makes no sense. the myriad reasons that the 1999 apartment bombings are considered a possible false flag operation, along with the bungling of the Dubrovka and Beslan sieges, are demonstration enough that the Russian security services are perfectly capable of screwing up operations on home turf i am doubtful we'll have a good explanation for this (or the above events) until decades down the road when archives get unsealed, but a poorly-conceived and executed false flag operation isn't outside the realm of possibility
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May 4, 2023 16:24
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The ISW is endorsing the false flag theory: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2023 Their main reasons were: - The amount of air defense stationed in the area makes a real attack infeasible - High quality video of the attack was quickly made available - A coordinated media message was delivered within hours, whereas surprising events in the past have usually had slow and unclear messaging from the russian government and media
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May 4, 2023 17:20
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big shtick energy posted:The ISW is endorsing the false flag theory: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2023 I'm not sure they are right about media coverage. The first report anyone could find was on a small local telegram channel at about 5 in the morning. After that, there was literally nothing on TV about it, and only at 15, they had a vague statement aired without even showing the footage of the explosion itself (because it looks spookier than it is). By the evening of the same day they had the typical hysterical reaction you would expect that didn't need to be coordinated. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 19:25 on May 4, 2023 |
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May 4, 2023 17:35
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Nathan Ruser, in particular, has been spotlighting the institution that ISW has become and needing to feed the media machine rather than sitting tight until we actually know more. If we ever do. https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1654062758357532672?s=20
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May 4, 2023 17:40
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If this is a Russia false flag, I think its just a backup plan. Like adding a new reason to escalate in case Putin wants to. Also if these 2 were amateur drones, Russia probably would give a close up of the blown up drone to show how amateur the drones were.
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May 4, 2023 17:41
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Nathan Ruser, in particular, has been spotlighting the institution that ISW has become and needing to feed the media machine rather than sitting tight until we actually know more. If we ever do. Yeah, the ISW has really become way over the top lately and not something I take seriously anymore. The media speed/coverage angle seems silly to me, since having a false flag playbook that makes it obvious something is a false flag just seems really dumb. Feels like tea leaves to me.
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May 4, 2023 17:44
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big shtick energy posted:The ISW is endorsing the false flag theory: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2023 A lot of pushback on this article in particular https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1654127798255222787 https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1653098365440208897 https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1654125493032198151
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May 4, 2023 17:46
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stephenthinkpad posted:If this is a Russia false flag, I think its just a backup plan. Like adding a new reason to escalate in case Putin wants to. We keep talking about escalation but what can Putin do to escalate that he isn't doing already? He can't carpet bomb Ukrainian cities because they don't have air supremacy. All they can do is use drones and missiles the way the Nazis' used their V1s and V2s in WW2 and that isn't enough. The only "escalation" left is the use of nuclear weapons which despite the sabre rattling is probably never going to happen because that's red line that would isolate Russia from even their own allies. The other escalation is to engineer a tragedy that would galvanize the Russian people into a mass mobilization. I don't think anyone in Russia is capable of faking a false flag big enough to pass the smell test in this case. So really there is no situation beyond nuclear weapons or mass mobilization to worry about.
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May 4, 2023 17:49
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro...post_type=share Evidence to support that lean towards not being a false flag. BBC's Steve Rosenberg frequently reads headlines from Russian newspapers, whether state-affiliated or business orientated, to get a read of the editorial mood at Russian newsrooms. So far the response from the papers are muted which doesn't suggest a co-ordinated media campaign that will follow if it was indeed a false flag.
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May 4, 2023 18:27
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Xtronoc posted:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro...post_type=share Well it also might be because the entire op was so bad that they can’t even justify trying to spin it.
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May 4, 2023 18:30
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Djarum posted:Well it also might be because the entire op was so bad that they can’t even justify trying to spin it. The thing looked like a black powder explosion with zero fragmentation. You can probably throw competence along with it being a strike by Ukraine out the window of ideas.
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May 4, 2023 18:43
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The whole thing is very weird so I'm guessing it's going to be one of those wartime events that we never actually get a satisfactory explanation for.
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May 4, 2023 18:52
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I was curious how cost efficient Ukraine's air defences against drones are. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/...20the%20drones. This article says they're using the Gepards a lot, which I guess isn't too bad, but also some of their missile based systems, which AFAICT cost like 20x per shot as the drones they are defending against.
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May 4, 2023 19:05
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The big concern isn't cost, it's running out of ammo.
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May 4, 2023 19:06
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The thing is also that a missile may be 20× more expensive than a drone, but the thing the drone is trying to hit may be 1000× more expensive. Same thing with javelins, sure they may cost as much as the tanks they are destroying, but if they ensure the defenders can keep their positions and avoid casualties, it's more than worth it
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May 4, 2023 19:10
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OddObserver posted:The big concern isn't cost, it's running out of ammo. Looking at you here, Switzerland...
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May 4, 2023 19:21
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Independence posted:The thing looked like a black powder explosion with zero fragmentation. You can probably throw competence along with it being a strike by Ukraine out the window of ideas. I also struggle to think of a time when Ukraine bothered with theater like this and/or didn't use ordinance to strike a useful target. Like, they wouldn't be going after the loving flagpole, they would target the entire dome or even the executive office building. Better yet, they would target the rail infrastructure around the city.
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May 4, 2023 19:27
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Looks like Ukraine may have accidentally shot down one of their own TB2 drones over Kyiv https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654193643614359578 https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1654197244575330304 https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1654194753406226436
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May 4, 2023 19:59
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Chalks posted:Looks like Ukraine may have accidentally shot down one of their own TB2 drones over Kyiv The false flags are getting more and more frequent!
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May 4, 2023 20:39
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Pook Good Mook posted:I also struggle to think of a time when Ukraine bothered with theater like this and/or didn't use ordinance to strike a useful target. My view is that maybe Ukraine is sending Putin a message that reads "we can get you, we didn't want to this time, but you should consider retreating". But a local Russian opposition group is also very plausible.
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May 4, 2023 20:49
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My view is that the Keebler Elves did it from their little treehouse.
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May 4, 2023 20:58
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Chalks posted:Looks like Ukraine may have accidentally shot down one of their own TB2 drones over Kyiv Apparently the shoot down wasn't an accident but intentional after they lost communication with the drone and it started flying over the city https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654215719892967427
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May 4, 2023 21:12
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Looks like UA takes a page out of equine veterinary practices when dealing with rogue drones. Can't say I blame 'em.
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May 4, 2023 21:14
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I’m surprised to hear about a TB2 flying (especially so far from the front), I had the impression that while initially successful they were more of an overblown meme after the first several months and weren’t worth flying against air defenses that are active now. I can’t point to anything explicitly saying the above, just the general gist I’d picked up.
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May 4, 2023 23:58
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Drones have a ton of uses outside of front-lines stuff. The optics and sensor packs on modern drones are really ridiculous.
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May 5, 2023 00:21
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Moon Slayer posted:The whole thing is very weird so I'm guessing it's going to be one of those wartime events that we never actually get a satisfactory explanation for. quote:The emergence of unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles at energy facilities or on Kremlin’s territory can only indicate the guerilla activities of local resistance forces. As you know, drones can be bought at any military store... I'm perfectly satisfied with that explanation.
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May 5, 2023 00:59
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big shtick energy posted:The ISW is endorsing the false flag theory: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2023 The argument that there wouldn't be high quality video available is laughable considering It's 2023. There was video of the first strike on 9/11 22 years ago... The videos were also only released much later on the day as I understand it. Independence posted:The thing looked like a black powder explosion with zero fragmentation. You can probably throw competence along with it being a strike by Ukraine out the window of ideas. Ukraine has performed multiple strikes on Russian territory just in the past days (bombing fuel depots). It's also not clear whether Russia has the capability of executing large scale terror bombings of Ukraine, or at least not without a large cost (not bombing actual military targets). We'll have to see that happen first to take it into consideration.
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May 5, 2023 01:28
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CSM posted:Ukraine has performed multiple strikes on Russian territory just in the past days (bombing fuel depots). It's also not clear whether Russia has the capability of executing large scale terror bombings of Ukraine, or at least not without a large cost (not bombing actual military targets). We'll have to see that happen first to take it into consideration. They're saying that Russia is warming the crowd for a monstrous false flag attack on their own civilians.
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May 5, 2023 01:39
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CSM posted:Ukraine has performed multiple strikes on Russian territory just in the past days (bombing fuel depots). It's also not clear whether Russia has the capability of executing large scale terror bombings of Ukraine, or at least not without a large cost (not bombing actual military targets). We'll have to see that happen first to take it into consideration. I'm talking about Podolyak's reference to this: https://www.theguardian.com/news/defence-and-security-blog/2014/mar/06/ukraine-gross-violation-russian-troops quote:Russian president Vladimir Putin, at a press conference this week, refused to confirm they are Russian regulars and suggested they were spontaneous groups who could have acquired the uniforms from army surplus stores.
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May 5, 2023 01:47
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Blorange posted:They're saying that Russia is warming the crowd for a monstrous false flag attack on their own civilians. I would take what Podolyak says with a huge grain of salt. He's also saying local groups and guerilla are behind the energy attacks in Russia, which is obviously not true seeing as how Ukraine just confirmed not long ago they attacked that fuel depot near Sevastopol. He's also a pretty big hawk, seeing as how he called for preemptive nuclear strikes on Russia's missile sites. They also said that they weren't behind the explosion that killed Dugina's daughter, which later turned out to not be true and the U.S. also wasn't aware of similar to the Kremlin drone attack https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html Willo567 fucked around with this message at 02:51 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 02:49
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Blorange posted:They're saying that Russia is warming the crowd for a monstrous false flag attack on their own civilians. Speaking of flags, still loving that russian representative in Ankara who tried to win by capturing the Ukranian flag, and got punched in the loving face by a Ukranian MP for his trouble Flag was returned to base FYI so the war is still on
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May 5, 2023 02:49
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Willo567 posted:I would take what Podolyak says with a huge grain of salt. He's also saying local groups and guerilla are behind the energy attacks in Russia, which is obviously not true seeing as how Ukraine just confirmed not long ago they attacked that fuel depot near Sevastopol. He's also a pretty big hawk, seeing as how he called for preemptive nuclear strikes on Russia's missile sites. That seems like a pretty threadbare reason to believe Ukraine was behind the Dugina assassination? Some unknown officials saying the US thinks Ukrainians did it is really far from definitive?
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May 5, 2023 03:13
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Ok, I gotta come clean because this is getting out of hand. I did it. I work at Amazon and one of the guards at the Kremlin ordered a bulk package of butane lighters so I sent it over by drone and, well, I'd had a few drinks as one does to get through the day and the drone just got away from me.
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May 5, 2023 03:45
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Speaking of other people who are also not entirely trustworthy: (graphic tweet removed) Really wondering what's going on with this..... (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 15:42 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 03:57
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OddObserver posted:Really wondering what's going on with this.....
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May 5, 2023 04:26
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You probably want to edit it out before someone obsessively following the war thread complains that they had to see some images of the extremely brutal war, instead of instances of the libs getting owned On topic, that's truly remarkable, Wagner making a retreat soon? quote:He is mad. Prizohin has bitched about ammo shortage before however there seems to be a shortage of ammo across the Russian army if telegram posts are to be believed. So he thinks he is getting blue balled by the Russian MoD where there is a strong possibility that there isn't enough ammo to go around or at least get to where it is needed. He was complaining about ammo shortages at the start of the year angrily ( his troops were making videos calling Gerasimov fa*got), then toned it down, now this. He seems like he has nothing to lose anymore, he's done , either the Ukrainians or the russian army get him Somaen fucked around with this message at 06:22 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 05:33
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I do not ever think I have seen such a video before. How can it be that Prigozhin have not yet lost his head in the political game in Russia? Who is holding their hand over him and keeping him alive?
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May 5, 2023 06:23
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| # ? Jun 1, 2024 10:47 |
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How do mercenary groups typically get their equipment? Do they--or more specifically Wagner--buy them from the defense industry in whose country they operate? Should groups like Wagner even expect "free" ammunition from the MoD if they are a mercenary outfit? I'm hoping someone in this thread can educate me here, because Prizohin's whining seems strange: if you are a mercenary outfit, you get paid for waging war well; and if that's the case then your inability to field weapons is indicative of your inability to wage war well. That is, you're not making enough money by "winning enough" to purchase weapons or ammo. Or is it simply the case that waging war is way more expensive then any mercenary outfit can hope to wage without external support even with capitalist incentives.
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May 5, 2023 06:24
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