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(Thread IKs: skooma512)
 
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RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:
the other way cities have to generate money is by having the police issue tickets

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Morbus
May 18, 2004

webcams for christ posted:

I mean even without covid, what made the volcker shock so effective is that it accompanied a transition from industrial capitalism to financial/service capitalism. industrial jobs were destroyed, the factories closed, and then production was moved abroad. inflation was offset by Unequal [international] Exchange
and the subsequent growth of the reserve army of labor drove wages down, accompanied by the breaking of labor power.

Powell is running a 50-year-old playbook that was created for a specific set of historical macroeconomic circumstances which no longer exist.



also, the ECB hiked 25 BPS, as expected

Not only that, but during the volcker shock, the US labor participation rate was at all time highs, and from 1975-1990 was steadily increasing at its fastest rate ever. This was due to a combination of more women entering the workforce and boomers entering their prime working years. Even during the peak of the 1980-1982 recession, the labor participation rate just went from "ascendant" to "flat but higher than ever".

In 2023, the labor participation rate has been steadily decreasing for 20+ years, just about as fast as it increased from 1975-1990, and then we got covid on top of that.

smug jeebus
Oct 26, 2008

Does this explain Redfall

Dr. VooDoo
May 4, 2006


Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

But it never sold for $300m. It was "valued" at $300m.

https://sfstandard.com/business/san-franciscos-famed-california-street-is-selling-at-a-deep-discount/

The $300m value was never real, they're doing the Magic card thing but with real estate

Imagine people passing a pieces of paper back and forth, all agreeing the valuation of their pieces of paper are actually worth hundreds of millions and in fact keep getting even more valuable. They then get to write this value down and borrow a bunch of 0% interest loans based on the valuation of their pieces of paper. This is how real estate investment works because everyone involved has a vested interest in valuation being a line constantly going up only and it’s also why we have a housing crisis because if you rent and/or sell a place below the valuation then everything around it collapses and valuation must constantly increase or everything stalls and falls apart. This is also how a lot of our corporations function now because capitalism functions on infinite growth in a finite system, so at this point companies just outright lie to each other about how valuable they are and banks and other institutions have a vested interest in playing along because keeping the shell game going makes them money too.

Yes, it’s stupid and yes it will inevitably unravel in a spectacular collapse but no one in power wants to change it because they don’t think they’ll be the ones holding the bag when everything explodes

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008



Blarghalt posted:

I'm a simple American. When I see a bank fail I just nod sagely and go "good."

Morbus
May 18, 2004

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

all of these companies are leveraged to poo poo, rent can never go down because that affects building valuations and brings the entire house of cards down.

The make-believe high valuations are only real as long as banks are willing to let you borrow against them (at rates you can manage), or as long as you are able to sell the property at the price you've valued it. Which in the current environment may as well be called "lol" and "lmao".

Lpzie
Nov 20, 2006

we dont need Writers, we have A.I.

Pepe Silvia Browne
Jan 1, 2007

Lpzie posted:

we dont need Writers, we have too much content already

Blarghalt
May 19, 2010

Lpzie posted:

we dont need Writers, we have A.I.

The venn diagram of the kind of people that pay for twitter and the people who think writers should be replaced by AI is a perfect circle. If studio execs were smart, they'd realize these people would clap like seals for literally any garbage an AI writer would put out, because they're barely sentient automatons who will pay you any amount of money to cater to them.

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



RealityWarCriminal posted:

cities generally don't have strong taxation powers, but are feeling the inflation and interest rates crunch just like everyone. one of the few ways they have to increase funds is by increasing the valuations of properties in the city.

:thunk:

Cities can usually leverage decent sales taxes, but yeah, by-and-large it isn't always sufficient to maintain operating budgets. A lot of cities have their utilities set up as executive enterprises that can self-fund and/or have high utility rates to subsidize city services, but obviously those high rates hit the poor the hardest :murica!:

There's also always the municipal bond market for raising funds...

ben shapino
Nov 22, 2020

Blarghalt posted:

If studio execs were smart, they'd realize these people would clap like seals for literally any garbage an AI writer would put out, because they're barely sentient automatons who will pay you any amount of money to cater to them.

This is why I have said that Elon is smart, just not in the way he wants us to think he is. He's smart enough to know how loving stupid the average person is. He's also stupid, but he knows how to exploit that stupidity better than most.

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


RealityWarCriminal posted:

cities generally don't have strong taxation powers, but are feeling the inflation and interest rates crunch just like everyone. one of the few ways they have to increase funds is by increasing the valuations of properties in the city.

:thunk:

Dunno about other states, but in PA every local government can and does levy EIT (it's 3% here)

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

18 large eggs were $2.39 today. They also had dozens for $.49 but that was if you had a digital coupon.

Also the amazon rewards credit card from chase now lets you use points as you earn them, instead of having to wait till the statement closing date.

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009

Dr. VooDoo posted:

Imagine people passing a pieces of paper back and forth, all agreeing the valuation of their pieces of paper are actually worth hundreds of millions and in fact keep getting even more valuable. They then get to write this value down and borrow a bunch of 0% interest loans based on the valuation of their pieces of paper. This is how real estate investment works because everyone involved has a vested interest in valuation being a line constantly going up only and it’s also why we have a housing crisis because if you rent and/or sell a place below the valuation then everything around it collapses and valuation must constantly increase or everything stalls and falls apart. This is also how a lot of our corporations function now because capitalism functions on infinite growth in a finite system, so at this point companies just outright lie to each other about how valuable they are and banks and other institutions have a vested interest in playing along because keeping the shell game going makes them money too.

Yes, it’s stupid and yes it will inevitably unravel in a spectacular collapse but no one in power wants to change it because they don’t think they’ll be the ones holding the bag when everything explodes

After reading this, I realize that NFTs and crypto are just showing how the current economy works but in a much more obvious way.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Lpzie posted:

we dont need Writers, we have the SA forums

mad.radhu
Jan 8, 2006




Fun Shoe
we're probably three years max out from someone using "AI" to make software for cops that gives them carte blanche to execute everyone they see because "the algorithm" said to shoot

caelxii
Jun 20, 2003

Studio executives have probably been listening to AI-driven show pitches all week. They’re gonna use it as a selling point.

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Lpzie posted:

we dont need Writers, we have A.I.

ChatGPT posted:

Sorry, but as an AI language model, I cannot predict or anticipate any future events or situations like a writer's strike that might affect the quality of a movie's script. However, I can give you an example of a low-quality opening scene for a hypothetical Avengers movie.

FADE IN:

EXT. NEW YORK CITY - DAY

We see the Avengers walking down the street, looking really cool and heroic. Suddenly, a bunch of bad guys show up and start shooting at them.

IRON MAN
Oh no! We have to fight these guys!

CAPTAIN AMERICA
Don't worry, Iron Man. We can handle them.

THOR
Yes, I shall smite them with my hammer!

BLACK WIDOW
I'll take care of the ones in the back.

HAWKEYE
And I'll shoot some arrows at them!

They all start fighting the bad guys, and there are some cool action scenes and explosions. Eventually, they defeat the bad guys and stand victorious.

IRON MAN
That was too easy.

CAPTAIN AMERICA
Agreed. We need a real challenge.

Suddenly, a giant alien ship appears in the sky.

THOR
By Odin's beard! What sorcery is this?

BLACK WIDOW
I don't like the look of this.

HAWKEYE
Yeah, me neither.

IRON MAN
Let's go check it out.

The Avengers fly up to the ship and land on the deck. They see a sinister-looking alien with a big gun.

ALIEN
Greetings, Avengers. I am here to destroy your planet.

CAPTAIN AMERICA
Not on our watch, alien scum!

They all start fighting the alien, and there are more explosions and cool action scenes. Eventually, they defeat the alien and save the world.

IRON MAN
That was a close one.

CAPTAIN AMERICA
Yeah, but we did it together.

THOR
Indeed. We are a mighty team.

BLACK WIDOW
Let's go get shawarma.

HAWKEYE
Sounds good to me.

They all fly off into the sunset, ready for their next adventure.

FADE OUT.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

mad.radhu posted:

we're probably three years max out from someone using "AI" to make software for cops that gives them carte blanche to execute everyone they see because "the algorithm" said to shoot

Wait they don't already have carte blanche to execute whoever they want?

Like I guess the AI could make sure they're not wealthy or friends with anyone with connections.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.
ChatGPT4 make a Peanuts special along with the art.




SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1654211053004234752

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003



indistinguishable from existing MCU movies

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009


Is this good?

mad.radhu
Jan 8, 2006




Fun Shoe

skooma512 posted:

ChatGPT4 make a

that's awesome man, I had chatgpt4 make a reply to your post

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Raccooon posted:

Is this good?

Lots of people are getting 4-5% interest :)

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009

Starting to feel like this might be the big one.

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


Raccooon posted:

Starting to feel like this might be the big one.
then it isn't

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Raccooon posted:

Starting to feel like this might be the big one.

Don't get my hopes up

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



mad.radhu posted:

that's awesome man, I had chatgpt4 make a reply to your post

ran out of tokens

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009

You asked it to give you an AI-generated script, but all I see is a legit Avengers movie script? :confused:

Morbus
May 18, 2004


lmao

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

they're doing the Magic card thing but with

this is most things now. they figured out they could do it with everything.

Morbus
May 18, 2004

Raccooon posted:

This just sounds like a delaying action of the inevitable.

:capitalism:

Akratic Method
Mar 9, 2013

It's going to pay off eventually--I'm sure of it.

Any day now.

Raccooon posted:

a delaying action of the inevitable.

see, now that's a thread title

wynott dunn
Aug 9, 2006

What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?

Raccooon posted:

Starting to feel like this might be the big one.

I admire your optimism

Oglethorpe
Aug 8, 2005
Avatar blanked by Admin request.
what the hell shopify is up 23%

oh they laid off 20% of their people lmao

of course

Popoto
Oct 21, 2012

miaow
should have laid off 100% to go up 115%!

atelier morgan
Mar 11, 2003

super-scientific, ultra-gay

Lipstick Apathy

RealityWarCriminal posted:

cities generally don't have strong taxation powers, but are feeling the inflation and interest rates crunch just like everyone. one of the few ways they have to increase funds is by increasing the valuations of properties in the city.

:thunk:

increasing valuations don't increase property taxes in california so SF doesn't have that excuse

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


stock prices asymptotically approaching infinity as your payroll approaches 0

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Glumwheels
Jan 25, 2003

https://twitter.com/BidenHQ
Sundar Pichai is getting a raise after a $70 billion stock buyback announcement and layoffs

My gut says all these new luxury cars rolling around are due to company bonuses for those directors and above who laid off people in their orgs.

:guillotine:

Oh yeah and they cut snack to pinch a penny too

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