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ISWs says that one of the the first things Russia did after the Kremlin drone thing was to cancel a bunch of May 9 parades for “public safety concerns”.quote:https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-4-2023 Which seems to me to make perfect sense for why do this false flag now? There is no way they can ship the ravaged vestiges of their army back across Russia for parades and their only alternative would be breaking out even more ancient and outdated equipment for even less well trained soldiers to march with. It would be hugely embarrassing. They are probably furiously scraping together the last few uncommitted border forces to be in one or two high profile parades to save face. This probably also explains why a few months ago there were train loads of T34s and 55s heading west. I expect what parades they have will be stuffed full of this old equipment as an ‘homage to the past’ to hide the state of their modern forces. Murgos fucked around with this message at 13:29 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 13:27
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When the US military wanted to cancel a victory parade under Trump they just bogged it down in process and ran out the clock The Russians exploded a drone in their seat of government
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May 5, 2023 14:19
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Hahahaha Wagner throwing their toys out of the pram and saying they're pulling out of Bakhmut next week https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008 Also weird that they are openly calling calling it 'Operation Bakhmut Meat Grinder' and directly calling the war a war in this translation of Prigozhin's little rant (not the one in the field of corpses mentioned earlier) https://metro.co.uk/video/wagner-mercenaries-announce-withdrawal-bakhmut-2933089/
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May 5, 2023 14:58
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Rude Dude With Tude posted:Hahahaha Wagner throwing their toys out of the pram and saying they're pulling out of Bakhmut next week https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008 But I thought they were gonna capture it any day now?!?
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May 5, 2023 15:26
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Not gonna lie, seeing an Armata get javelined on Red Square would be 
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May 5, 2023 15:38
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Rude Dude With Tude posted:Hahahaha Wagner throwing their toys out of the pram and saying they're pulling out of Bakhmut next week https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008 Dang is there any precedent for a mercenary group that was still being paid holding their own press conference to announce abandonment of an operation without the approval of the national army? Can’t imagine a Soviet commander in Finland in 1940 trying that and living more than 24 hours. Unless it’s somehow 4D chess would assume Putin removes this guy to avoid the precedent of well armed power groups being allowed to defy him if they feel like it.
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May 5, 2023 15:41
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Dang is there any precedent for a mercenary group that was still being paid holding their own press conference to announce abandonment of an operation without the approval of the national army? Can’t imagine a Soviet commander in Finland in 1940 trying that and living more than 24 hours. Unless it’s somehow 4D chess would assume Putin removes this guy to avoid the precedent of well armed power groups being allowed to defy him if they feel like it.
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May 5, 2023 15:59
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Nessus posted:To be fair in the last hundred years I don't think there are many precedents for something like Wagner being such a key part of one's military forces in an actual factual big-boy invasion. Even Blackwater and stuff in Iraq was mostly there to do miscellaneous additional war crimes, wasn't it? IIRC, the PMCs in Iraq were mostly there for doing stuff like securing diplomatic compounds, escorting NGOs, etc. Wasn't the attack against UN troops in the Congo in 1961 mostly mercenaries?
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May 5, 2023 16:09
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psydude posted:IIRC, the PMCs in Iraq were mostly there for doing stuff like securing diplomatic compounds, escorting NGOs, etc. I think you are referring to the Stanleyville Crisis- if you are, it was a two pronged coordinated attack with the main players being Belgian Paras and the famous 5 Commando band of mercenaries lead by Mike Hoare. But I might be thinking of one of the later Congo things
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May 5, 2023 16:20
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psydude posted:IIRC, the PMCs in Iraq were mostly there for doing stuff like securing diplomatic compounds, escorting NGOs, etc.
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May 5, 2023 16:21
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Nessus posted:What the hell was even the point of that, other than to funnel money to Erik Prince? All this sounds like stuff the regular military can do. I suppose there would be potential advantages of having it be closer to the actual customer when things are time sensitive. You don’t have to give VA benefits to mercs.
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May 5, 2023 16:29
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Nessus posted:To be fair in the last hundred years I don't think there are many precedents for something like Wagner being such a key part of one's military forces in an actual factual big-boy invasion. Even Blackwater and stuff in Iraq was mostly there to do miscellaneous additional war crimes, wasn't it? I’m no expert but yeah I think there is a good reason using mercenaries on a large scale is a bad idea for prolonged losing wars. Would make sense for a short war if they thought they’d be in Kiev in a week and wanted to avoid a draft, but not for a meatgrinder battle. Thinking it’s a little similar to the Eastern front when Germany ran into trouble and their not particularly motivated allies began looking for an exit.
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May 5, 2023 16:30
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Stultus Maximus posted:You don’t have to give VA benefits to mercs. Most of them were already getting them tho.
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May 5, 2023 16:30
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Hyrax Attack! posted:I’m no expert but yeah I think there is a good reason using mercenaries on a large scale is a bad idea for prolonged losing wars. Would make sense for a short war if they thought they’d be in Kiev in a week and wanted to avoid a draft, but not for a meatgrinder battle. I assume there's a money/feudalism flow of some kind here I just can't perceive.
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May 5, 2023 16:33
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People seem to focus on the PMCs but the US hired contractors at a large scale for all sorts of other things. Trainers, engineers, firefighters, mechanics, interpreters, equipment operators, etc. KBR seemed to be the big dog until Bush left office and then it was Fluor. This just made financial sense, especially if the people making these decisions happened to own a lot of shares in Halliburton. edit: Fluor, not Fleur bees everywhere fucked around with this message at 20:12 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 16:39
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PMCs in Iraq- It was believed that they would be cheaper; the idea was the Govt pays a flat fee to contractor, and contractor handles all the details- drivers, trucks, etc. That was the main reason it seems, since the Admin wanted to fight a war on a budget- same reason why we invaded with about 1/3 the number of troops the Army said was needed. The contractors would then put profits first, and cut every corner possible. The public stated reason was "It will free up troops for war fighting!" which was total bullshit as anyone in the military knew. Those contractors pulled away gun trucks and troops to protect them, because while they had to do the details, we had to do security. I'm probably wrong, but I recall reading an article that found using Contractors the way we did in Iraq was more expensive than doing it with our guys.
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May 5, 2023 16:49
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What I remember most is KBR being contracted to put out the oil field fires, Iraq not lighting the oil fields on fire and DOD pivoting really fast to keep KBR employed.
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May 5, 2023 16:53
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bulletsponge13 posted:. This is always how it works out. "Privatization = cost savings" is almost always a false promise because you lose economies of scale, the profits have to be extracted from somewhere, and if any savings are found, it's usually from cost shifting not actually savings, and those shifted costs still end up getting paid by the public purse (e.g., all those merc veterans still getting VA health care wherever their injuries occurred). It can be immensely profitable for those at the top but it's always a bad deal for the public.
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May 5, 2023 16:58
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Murgos posted:ISWs says that one of the the first things Russia did after the Kremlin drone thing was to cancel a bunch of May 9 parades for “public safety concerns”. There's also a thing with the Immortal Regiment parades. One of the few actually popular (as in, not invented by government propaganda) movements that's popped up in Russia in the past decade, it involves relatives of war dead marching in the Victory Day parades with pictures of their relatives to commemorate them. Given how many people have died in Ukraine in the past year, the Russian government is *terrified* this year's Immortal Regiment parades will spiral completely out of control.
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May 5, 2023 16:58
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https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1654514902868869122?s=46&t=gBwwYH66NlEwfgt7cOZWEg This is just the right amount of wholesome karmic violence we can enjoy guilt-free.
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May 5, 2023 17:02
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Parkingtigers posted:https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1654514902868869122?s=46&t=gBwwYH66NlEwfgt7cOZWEg I could have appreciated more violence. A broken nose, for example.
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May 5, 2023 17:22
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Stultus Maximus posted:I could have appreciated more violence. A broken nose, for example. Yeah, I was expecting a bigger Ukrainian counteroffensive.
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May 5, 2023 17:24
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bulletsponge13 posted:I think you are referring to the Stanleyville Crisis- if you are, it was a two pronged coordinated attack with the main players being Belgian Paras and the famous 5 Commando band of mercenaries lead by Mike Hoare. I was thinking specifically of Jadotville, which was an Irish unit.
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May 5, 2023 18:23
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654432674633613312 https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654448035445784576 Looks likely that Ukraine has succeeded in blowing one of the "invincible" Russian hypersonic missiles out of the air. The evidence seems pretty strong.
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May 5, 2023 18:24
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I bet that wreckage is in Virginia already.
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May 5, 2023 18:26
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PurpleXVI posted:https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654432674633613312 Hypersonic missiles using guidance systems fashioned out of washing machine control boards.
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May 5, 2023 18:27
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psydude posted:I was thinking specifically of Jadotville, which was an Irish unit. My bad. I forgot all about that, embarassingly.
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May 5, 2023 18:29
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Parkingtigers posted:https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1654514902868869122?s=46&t=gBwwYH66NlEwfgt7cOZWEg The shocked look on the Russian's face that he's actually being confronted seems to encapsulate the entire war. "What? The Ukrainians are defending themselves? We didn't expect that to happen, are they allowed to do that?"
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May 5, 2023 18:33
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Deteriorata posted:Yeah, I was expecting a bigger Ukrainian counteroffensive. And yet the Russian still fled completely, yielding the Ukrainian property they had taken, and required a number of external participants keeping the Ukrainian from wrecking the Russian's poo poo more. ...wait hold on
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May 5, 2023 18:35
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This is always how it works out. "Privatization = cost savings" is almost always a false promise because you lose economies of scale, the profits have to be extracted from somewhere, and if any savings are found, it's usually from cost shifting not actually savings, and those shifted costs still end up getting paid by the public purse (e.g., all those merc veterans still getting VA health care wherever their injuries occurred). I just want an example from anytime in history that cost savings didn't mean gutting core services
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May 5, 2023 18:37
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:I just want an example from anytime in history that cost savings didn't mean gutting core services Peace dividend!
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May 5, 2023 18:39
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:I just want an example from anytime in history that cost savings didn't mean gutting core services I saved by switching car insurance
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May 5, 2023 18:40
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bulletsponge13 posted:PMCs in Iraq- It was believed that they would be cheaper; the idea was the Govt pays a flat fee to contractor, and contractor handles all the details- drivers, trucks, etc. That was the main reason it seems, since the Admin wanted to fight a war on a budget- same reason why we invaded with about 1/3 the number of troops the Army said was needed. The contractors would then put profits first, and cut every corner possible. I went to an academic talk by a guy who had studied this, and was sitting next to an ex-State guy who had been posted in Iraq. The postdoc built this big presentation about competing power bases, and how State used PMCs because it let them set up parallel chains of command and not go though DOD. The State guy elbowed me sharply, leaned over, and said "poo poo, that's not why I did it. Those guys were 10 times cheaper than Marines"
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May 5, 2023 18:47
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Maybe in the way cost centres are calculated. Last management job I had if I wanted to hire an FTE, I had to justify 170% of their salary over five years. If I contracted out and checked “non-recurring” on the form it went into the opex bucket and nobody cared.
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May 5, 2023 18:51
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Iraq was a feeding trough. If the question is ever "why private and not government", refer to that.
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May 5, 2023 18:51
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bulletsponge13 posted:PMCs in Iraq- It was believed that they would be cheaper; the idea was the Govt pays a flat fee to contractor, and contractor handles all the details- drivers, trucks, etc. That was the main reason it seems, since the Admin wanted to fight a war on a budget- same reason why we invaded with about 1/3 the number of troops the Army said was needed. The contractors would then put profits first, and cut every corner possible. This is inaccurate. The government issued a ton of Time and Material (T&M) contracts to firms like KBR at the beginning of the war, which caused costs to skyrocket since they had no incentive to keep costs down (they were getting paid more the more that they did). The expenditures were so outrageous that it fundamentally reshaped government procurement policies, and at this point almost all services contracts are Firm Fixed Price (FFP). The main reason the government needed to rely upon these kinds of companies is that service support jobs (mail, food, construction/building maintenance) were the first to go when the cold war ended. So when the Bush admin decided to invade the wrong country, this poo poo had to be outsourced. The other problem is that the military's "up or out" system (which was also a major shift around the time the cold war ended) meant that there was no real subject matter expertise among technical or skilled labor roles. psydude fucked around with this message at 18:56 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 18:52
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I worked a T&M job for 3 years (the shipyard I worked at did the conversion of a Ukrainian RO/RO into the MSC ship the Roy M. Wheat), and it was the closest financial equivalent to rape I've ever seen.
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May 5, 2023 19:00
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Contractors don't do a job cheaper than it can be done by organic capacity, that's never been the case nor has anyone who had any idea what they were talking about suggested that. Contractors are cheaper than temporarily adding organic capacity, or adding organic capacity that is going to sit unutilized after the task is complete. Contractors are like the old saying about hookers, you pay them to leave.
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May 5, 2023 19:53
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PurpleXVI posted:Looks likely that Ukraine has succeeded in blowing one of the "invincible" Russian hypersonic missiles out of the air. The evidence seems pretty strong. I wonder if Ukraine wanted to hold off on that assessment because it implies Patriots are operational around Kyiv? Assuming that if their other systems could intercept a Khinzal they would have before now.
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May 5, 2023 20:01
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One thing I was always curious about was all of the third country nationals doing the lower qualification jobs, like the cooks, barbers and laundry workers, since I'm sure they weren't being paid nearly as well as US contractors. Did that translate to any kind of cost savings for the US govt or just to KBR/Fluor's bottom line? I assume the real answer is more complicated but leaning towards the latter of the two.
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May 5, 2023 20:12
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