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Whistling rear end in a top hat posted:Not a stock question per se but I went down a rabbit hole of reading about the Fed's repo and reverse repo facilities this morning and Good news! We created a more general economics thread in BFC for this exact reason, and we're discussing the Fed right now: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4027219&pagenumber=7&perpage=40 The only big caveat of that thread is you can't link directly to tweets, to focus on actual discussion, and discourage doom scrolling and reaction posts ("doom!" or "blood!")
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May 1, 2023 17:05
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mrmcd posted:One of the main things the Fed does as a central bank is set the price of money. The RRP is one of the main tools that have to do that, because when they let the RRP rate rise, it siphons money out of the parts of the banking system that are paying less than that. Similarly, if they want to lower the price of money, a low RRP rate pushes those dollars to go look for better returns elsewhere. This trickles down to interest rates for everything else in the economy. Central banking. Yay. This is literally what I’m doing with my previously banked dollars. I moved ~80% of my savings account to FDRXX which is a MMF that invests in Fed notes and RRP. Even though my savings are small potatoes, other people have to be doing the same. The real rear end-kicker is that now that my savings is in the MMF, it’s gonna take a lot of sweetener for me to get off my rear end and move it back into the banking system. Basically the banks have semi-permanently lost my savings and it is unavailable for them to lend out to others. If my rational (read: optimization of returns) actions are followed by others… woof.
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May 1, 2023 17:21
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To answer my own question, I guess it would make sense that even with a guaranteed* profit stream of billions from the Fed for the biggest banks, maybe it's such a tough business environment out there right now for manifold reasons (including high interest rates) that it's still a wash for banks' overall business, and a quick glance at a few of them shows them trading mostly flat, so the market seems to think that as well. It's fascinating because before 2021, this source of income for big banks didn't exist. And one would think that when a brand new, wildly profitable revenue stream gets created out of thin air the way the RRP was, that it would be a no-brainer for investors. *unless the Fed is wrong about its ability to operate in the red and/or the government defaults, in which case we'll all have much bigger things to worry about than investing
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May 1, 2023 17:24
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Hadlock posted:Good news! We created a more general economics thread in BFC for this exact reason, and we're discussing the Fed right now: oh cool, thanks. I did look for the most appropriate thread, and didnt see any obvious winners. anddd this was tangentially an investing question too
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May 1, 2023 17:25
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No worries it's a pretty new thread, just doing a little advertising since it hadn't been mentioned here in over a month
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May 1, 2023 19:54
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Any ideas what will happen to rare earth miners/EV car makers/battery producers/etc if Chile nationalizes their lithium mines? I want to see Chile say gently caress off to everyone and do it, but I can’t imagine everyone else just letting it go.
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May 1, 2023 22:35
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The industry is already starting to pivot to sodium ion batteries which aren't dependent on lithium. Sodium ion batteries are 90% the energy density and 30% the cost and the cathode/anodes are less fragile, plus, like, every country on the planet has unlimited supply of sodium since it's a major part of salt in sea water and other things I guess they had early success with lithium, plus the fact that it's about a quarter as heavy so they gave up on sodium and ran with lithium. Sodium can't produce as much instant power but they're working on providing battery packs that are a blend of sodium and lithium, like 90/10 sodium lithium, to allow for fast acceleration with lithium and cruising with sodium. Sodium also due to better cathode/anode materials (the main limiting factor in battery life/cycles) has a longer (2x?) life span I guess the idea is that by switching to sodium, will take pressure off lithium supplies and keep the price in check. Bad (terrible) analogy gas vs diesel  Sodium is supposed to be in commercial vehicles by 2027, so realistically 2030 or 32
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May 1, 2023 23:07
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Hadlock posted:The industry is already starting to pivot to sodium ion batteries which aren't dependent on lithium. Sodium ion batteries are 90% the energy density and 30% the cost and the cathode/anodes are less fragile, plus, like, every country on the planet has unlimited supply of sodium since it's a major part of salt in sea water and other things
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May 1, 2023 23:51
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Cacafuego posted:Any ideas what will happen to rare earth miners/EV car makers/battery producers/etc if Chile nationalizes their lithium mines? I want to see Chile say gently caress off to everyone and do it, but I can’t imagine everyone else just letting it go. There's multiple providers, china and chile having the majority if this is correct. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/chart-countries-produce-lithium-world/
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May 2, 2023 00:00
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Yeah china and chile Apparently the desert in california contains like, 20% or more lithium by weight near the salt flats/salt lakes, Tesla is working on a way to extract it from the soil there. There's other lithium supplies but in chile/bolivia they literally just scrape it off the ground, kind of like how crude oil used to seep out of the ground in los angeles up until the 1940s when they finally pumped it dry China announced last week (month?) they would stop exporting unrefined lithium ore, which is probably another reason why the industry has started dumping money into sodum nnnotime posted:How much would the sodium ion batteries bring down the price of EV's, assuming wide industry acceptance? As well as replacement cost for such batteries? I can't find the article right now but I think it would keep the cost mostly flat as sodium is slightly more expensive than lithium, but would reduce/eliminate price pressure on lithium, similar to how lifepo4* is being used on the model 3/Y to reduce use of lithium-ion** *used in medical/industrial devices **your traditional idea of a "laptop battery cell" Hadlock fucked around with this message at 00:17 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 00:12
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Cacafuego posted:Any ideas what will happen to rare earth miners/EV car makers/battery producers/etc if Chile nationalizes their lithium mines? I want to see Chile say gently caress off to everyone and do it, but I can’t imagine everyone else just letting it go. It’s probably going to be good for lithium mining in places like Australia where we have huge reserves that haven’t really been properly explored yet.
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May 2, 2023 01:03
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Just sharing another small win: a few weeks ago, when news came out about monthly inflation being at zero, I made a bet that $DUST would go up (i.e that gold prices would come down in response). I closed the position for a 9% win, yesterday. My dumb hypothesis is that because there's so much AI and algorithmic HFT stuff going on, that it'd be pointless to try to do technical stuff. So, instead maybe it'd be more effective to trade on emotional stuff, like bad news cycles. Basically: instead of trading off the bad news itself, I try to guess the next implications of the bad news will be, which I imagine that machine learning probably cannot do from its sentiment analysis stuff. So far it seems to be working, but I don't know if this is something to actually take seriously. It's better than the S&P returns, though, so maybe it's "good enough"? I'm nervous to increase the size of my bets, but %-wise I've been pretty consistent with 5%~15% per trade, per month, over the past few months. However, portfolio-wise, the portfolio return is very low because I'm making only small volume bets. Am just nervously dipping my toes into this stuff.
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May 2, 2023 11:08
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SoFi is being annihilated this week. Wish I had puts.
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May 2, 2023 15:12
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I took a very small speculative put on apple, given that I expect ER coming up to be absolutely awful for them. Given the 40% sales drop y/o/y and a much lower estimated er, I'll see. If they go the other way and explode I'll just cut whatever is left. Not expecting more than a couple weeks out of this.
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May 2, 2023 15:53
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gay picnic defence posted:It’s probably going to be good for lithium mining in places like Australia where we have huge reserves that haven’t really been properly explored yet. Ivanhoe in Canada killed their big lithium project last week as not being worthwhile. Who knows what’s going on.
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May 2, 2023 17:13
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Closed 10% on $SPR this morning. Rode the wave between 4/14 and this morning with earnings! 
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May 3, 2023 15:04
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FistEnergy posted:SoFi is being annihilated this week. Wish I had puts. Feeling pretty good selling at $6.50*  Probably going to buy back in when I have some money again tho *cost basis $10 
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May 3, 2023 20:20
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I think I’ll keep trying to time /ES even if I lose money over time. Maybe some day it will click and I will be profitable. Today was a wild one, almost untradeable with the ridiculous leverage and split second crashes that can happen with /ES. I’m using thinkorswim.
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May 3, 2023 20:21
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Inner Light posted:I think I’ll keep trying to time /ES even if I lose money over time. Maybe some day it will click and I will be profitable. Trading /ES on a big jpow speech day..... that seems even more insane than usual.
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May 3, 2023 20:33
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Baddog posted:Trading /ES on a big jpow speech day..... that seems even more insane than usual. It was pretty stupid! Thankfully I stayed on the right side of luck today, but it is dumb to actively trade based on luck because I feel my passive accounts do way better than the dumb luck plays. And that’s what the studies say anyway about day traders.
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May 3, 2023 20:42
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Baddog posted:Trading /ES on a big jpow speech day..... that seems even more insane than usual. Which mailing list do we subscribe to so we know which days those are? I only ever hear about them after the fact
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May 3, 2023 23:22
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https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Just about any futures/broker will be getting market news alerts on these days, I get emails from my future brokers warning of increased margin requirements on these days at least.
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May 3, 2023 23:46
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I follow https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar You should keep an eye on big earnings events as well. Apple is tomorrow!
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May 4, 2023 00:32
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Baddog posted:I follow I wish SA posts had like button sometimes but thanks for the links all.
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May 4, 2023 02:26
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CWEN's earnings report was a break even. Between that and the usual market-tanking speech from Powell, it's on sale.
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May 4, 2023 15:37
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drat my 52 week low scanner has been on fire these last few days
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May 4, 2023 18:25
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cirus posted:drat my 52 week low scanner has been on fire these last few days Is that generally a buy signal for you?
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May 4, 2023 18:29
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Inner Light posted:Is that generally a buy signal for you? Not usually, but I use it to screen for beaten down stocks. I look for patterns that suggest it's undervalued e.g. more cash than debt, low P/E, potential upcoming catalysts. Most are garbage but I've picked out a couple of winners like recently GMDA that dropped suddenly in March and received early FDA approval in April price has doubled from the March low. I also don't typically buy at the low I just put potentials on a watch list to keep an eye on them.
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May 4, 2023 21:16
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Smallcap biotech finally starting to recover.
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May 4, 2023 22:30
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closed apple put today +60%, naturally wasn't going to risk ER which...despite everything, apparently apple totally crushed *and* announced $90B in buybacks coming.
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May 4, 2023 22:33
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notwithoutmyanus posted:closed apple put today +60%, naturally wasn't going to risk ER which...despite everything, apparently apple totally crushed *and* announced $90B in buybacks coming. the conservative fruit-heavy portfolio once again pays off for the hungry investor!
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May 5, 2023 01:46
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Looks like I picked the wrong week to
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May 5, 2023 01:53
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street doc posted:Smallcap biotech finally starting to recover. $GOONs rejoice!
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May 6, 2023 01:44
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What screener settings do you guys use for stock picking? Here's what I've been using (I got it from a book a few years ago): https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=earningsdate_nextweek,fa_peg_u1,geo_usa,sh_curvol_o1000,sh_relvol_o0.75&ft=4 I just look for one that is near the end of a bad news cycle (like with the oil industry the past couple of weeks, edit: I got in on $MPC at the bottom on Thursday and I'm hoping it'll come back up just like when they were talking poo poo about the imminent bank failures the other month) and ahead of earnings. My hypothesis is just that in the weeks leading up to earnings, the big fishes are placing their bets one way or the other and so if I can see which way their expectations are going then maybe I can profit off their expectations, and get out right before earnings day. Love Stole the Day fucked around with this message at 14:33 on May 6, 2023 |
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May 6, 2023 14:30
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Love Stole the Day posted:What screener settings do you guys use for stock picking? Here's what I've been using (I got it from a book a few years ago): https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=earningsdate_nextweek,fa_peg_u1,geo_usa,sh_curvol_o1000,sh_relvol_o0.75&ft=4 so, your finviz screener is basically centered around the PEG < 1, so ye olde Peter Lynch "Growth at a Reasonable Price" basic metric, plus big volume and upcoming earnings. I have used that and it's sometimes interesting, but in general I think there's not one great screener to rule them all for finding good long positions. Businesses are too different. A great growth biz and great value biz will have wildly different screener outcomes. I will say that one thing I've had fun with is going sector by sector and screening for medium+ sized companies with extremely high P/S. That pointed out a lot of shitcos that died in 2021 and 2022. As a broad quality / GARP screener I've used something like this before, sans PEG: https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=...=2&o=-marketcap it's super broad, though. just a first pass. Also if you like GARP stocks you might want to look into the index methodology for the SPGP etf: https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Investor&ticker=SPGP it's kinda nifty: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-garp-indices.pdf
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May 6, 2023 21:03
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pmchem posted:I will say that one thing I've had fun with is going sector by sector and screening for medium+ sized companies with extremely high P/S. That pointed out a lot of shitcos that died in 2021 and 2022. pmchem posted:As a broad quality / GARP screener I've used something like this before, sans PEG: I know that PEG can't be used to compare between companies (and especially across sectors), and so the basic "is the company not unhealthy" filters you setup in your link are much more comprehensive than my naive thing. Thank you!
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May 8, 2023 01:32
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I had to listen to a podcast by that chamath palihapitiya guy whose hot stock tips were popular in this thread a few years ago. That guy sucks rear end. He was interviewing Robert Kennedy about how Haitians don't get covid because they take hydrocloroquin, and Nigerians are never autistic because they skip the vaccines
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May 8, 2023 02:58
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:I had to listen to a podcast by that chamath palihapitiya guy whose hot stock tips were popular in this thread a few years ago. Wow. I listened to a few clips when his name was out there, and I picked up on a couple red flags, though he may have skills in certain areas or hit big on luck. Thanks for sharing, I will assign less credence to that dude.
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May 8, 2023 03:00
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wasn't that guys whole schtick minting spacs?
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May 8, 2023 06:06
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:wasn't that guys whole schtick minting spacs? His whole schtick was rug pulling all of us.
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May 8, 2023 07:07
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