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fatherboxx)
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mrfart posted:That would be a dream come true, but I'll believe when I see it. Yeah, giving up Melitopol is essentially putting Crimea on a platter, so that's ... dare I say, a "red line"
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May 7, 2023 03:03
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Few questions about Wagner and Bakhmut: 1) Is them pulling out on the 10th just a thing that Prigozhin (which apparently has some sort of power over Wagner or Russia or ??) is saying, or are more Russians saying this? 2) It seems like announcing this happening on a specific day means it probably wont happen, maybe its some counter intel information, right? It seems kind of silly to say this out loud so your enemy can hear it and actually mean it. 3) With Wagner out, wouldnt there still be a bunch of Russian soldiers there in their place anyway? 4) I got the impression that Bakhmut isnt really strategically significant to the war effort, but both sides have thrown in a lot of lives here, so now that becomes the reason why its so important, at least politically/war support wise?
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May 7, 2023 05:54
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Warbadger posted:It's worth noting that the missile isn't the only factor. Sensors, comms/networking, and better software driving things have been the focus of a bunch of upgrades. I'd wager an old PAC-2 from the 90's could be shockingly effective these days compared to the early 90's. I think you could argue that it's not even the most important factor. The whole idea behind hypersonic missiles is to fly low and fast enough that no interceptor can reach them in time once they're detected. It seems like developing ways to detect them earlier is a more cost-effective defensive measure than trying to design exponentially faster missiles for shooting them down.
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May 7, 2023 06:22
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The orientation of the interceptor to the target also makes a big difference. Hitting something head on is much easier then trying to hit it perpendicular and in theory they are too fast to chase down so positioning matters a ton
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May 7, 2023 06:59
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Tossing around 'hypersonic' can be confusing here possibly - the Kinzhal is just a faster air-launched ballistic missile. It's not some novel scramjet-powered superweapon. Just fast.
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May 7, 2023 07:27
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So assuming the single Patriot battery shot down one of these missiles, what happens if they shoot 5? Can a Patriot intercept them all? Does Russia just have to send a larger volley of them, assuming they have the stocks? Or as wet_goods suggested, maybe shooting them all off from different directions to avoid head-on interception? Unrelated, could this this Wagner withdrawal possibly be the beginning of the end of this all? Could we see a domino meme in the future of this war being ended because Russia MoD wouldn’t supply them with more ammo on the downlow? Or does Russia itself have too many troops in Ukraine for a Wagner withdrawal to mean much?
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May 7, 2023 07:27
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:So assuming the single Patriot battery shot down one of these missiles, what happens if they shoot 5? Can a Patriot intercept them all? Does Russia just have to send a larger volley of them, assuming they have the stocks? Or as wet_goods suggested, maybe shooting them all off from different directions to avoid head-on interception? What Russia has been doing is launching a volley of slower cruise missiles alongside with the khinzal(s) to distract air defense, so that they're more likely to get through. It had been working so far.
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May 7, 2023 07:40
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buglord posted:Few questions about Wagner and Bakhmut: Your guess is as good as anyone else's on all that. I see it as CYA by many parties. Without being a fly on the wall, it could be seen as a reorganization of allegiances within the RF military apparatus, a provocation to force that, or a justification for it having already happened. The internal politics are opaque and constantly shifting. Notice that the RAF has said little about the situation. Look at the war as a business. Same rules apply. If there is dissent, let it play out. Let those that want to hang themselves have as much rope as possible. It's less that can be wound around your neck. Whatever happens, there is money or other capital to be reaped from the disaster. Bakhmut is a wide spot in the road. The RF has been commiting as many forces as necessary to push into it until something gives. What gives, then? Wagner bled white, RAF in to bleed themselves off? RAF perfectly willing to hold what is left of the town until Ukraine forces abondon it?
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May 7, 2023 07:41
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:So assuming the single Patriot battery shot down one of these missiles, what happens if they shoot 5? Can a Patriot intercept them all? Does Russia just have to send a larger volley of them, assuming they have the stocks? Or as wet_goods suggested, maybe shooting them all off from different directions to avoid head-on interception? A few thoughts: - the launch points of the missiles is quite distant - the intercept window on a Mach 10 ballistic missile is pretty small - synchronizing the arrival of multiple missiles to be in a small time window from multiple launch platforms is not easy - it's just not something I think the Russians can pull off - 'launch more' is limited by how many they can use without impairing other missions - these are supposed to be used in event of a hot conflict with NATO, can't just fire the whole inventory - a Patriot battery can have several launchers
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May 7, 2023 07:55
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spankmeister posted:What Russia has been doing is launching a volley of slower cruise missiles alongside with the khinzal(s) to distract air defense, so that they're more likely to get through. It had been working so far.
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May 7, 2023 07:58
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https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1655139288672083968?t=mlcpKcOdwMca6izRWGDwUg&s=19 Embarrassing for everyone involved
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May 7, 2023 10:20
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Why don't they call each other instead of making tiktok videos This future sucks
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May 7, 2023 11:42
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There's always the possibility that it's all theatrics and there is no real conflict between Wagner and MoD. Prigozhin needs his men to fight despite ammunition shortages, but because he can't just say that it's how it is for everyone, he adopts the persona of a firebrand patriot mistreated by government officials who sit in their cozy offices, etc. Then when Wagner occasionally get more stuff, his soldiers think it's thanks to his speaking truth to power. Makes soldiers feel like even bigger heroes, too.
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May 7, 2023 12:12
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Russia diverting stockpiles to Wagner just as the offensive starts is great for Ukraine, so it's hard to believe this will actually happen. Empty promises to avoid their withdrawal as a dangerous time is more likely imo
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May 7, 2023 12:16
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Can't imagine Gerasimov and Shoigu are happy being called names and their authority and competence being questioned by the other Putin friend just for the morale of his troops. Mobiks also watch those extremely public videos
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May 7, 2023 12:27
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Paladinus posted:There's always the possibility that it's all theatrics and there is no real conflict between Wagner and MoD. Prigozhin needs his men to fight despite ammunition shortages, but because he can't just say that it's how it is for everyone, he adopts the persona of a firebrand patriot mistreated by government officials who sit in their cozy offices, etc. Then when Wagner occasionally get more stuff, his soldiers think it's thanks to his speaking truth to power. Makes soldiers feel like even bigger heroes, too. I think it's somewhere in the middle. Prigozhin just hired former logistics deputy minister Mizintsev who was booted because apparently he was giving preference to Wagner for truly mysterious reasons (bribes). He probably genuinely felt necessary to do these stunts to get some of the support back.
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May 7, 2023 12:39
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Somaen posted:Why don't they call each other instead of making tiktok videos Because it's not about organizing effective logistics. It's about puffing up their public image and making the political opponents look weak and incompetent.
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May 7, 2023 12:52
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Prigozhin's Shtrafbats and the Tiktok Battalion getting into a firefight over who poo poo in their foxholes during their brief transition
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May 7, 2023 12:54
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madeintaipei posted:Digital prayer beads. Pun intended. https://twitter.com/gpysa/status/1654966612913541121 I didn't even know those existed. Pretty cool actually.
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May 7, 2023 14:29
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Rust Martialis posted:Tossing around 'hypersonic' can be confusing here possibly - the Kinzhal is just a faster air-launched ballistic missile. It's not some novel scramjet-powered superweapon. Just fast. Yes, it’s basically an air launched derivative of the Iskander ballistic missile (not the cruise missile). As you say, it’s not a hypersonic cruise missile nor is really a hypersonic glide vehicle. But, my understanding is that it (and the Iskander) has some limited maneuvering capabilities through the terminal phase. So, I think it’s fair to characterize it as one of the more challenging things UAF air defenses have to deal with. Do we know what kind of Patriot system Ukraine is fielding? Do they have PAC-3 interceptors, which are more geared to missile defense? Or were they able to shoot down the Kinzhal with the PAC-2 system? I can’t find any good confirmation one way or the other.
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May 7, 2023 15:20
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Tetraptous posted:Do we know what kind of Patriot system Ukraine is fielding? Do they have PAC-3 interceptors, which are more geared to missile defense? Or were they able to shoot down the Kinzhal with the PAC-2 system? I can’t find any good confirmation one way or the other. They aren't saying.
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May 7, 2023 15:27
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Rust Martialis posted:A few thoughts: The issue with 'launch more' is that they've rapidly depleted their stocks to the point they can't do that. Also, I don't think these things have a great CEP (circular error probability, i.e. how the military measures accuracy): they don't seem to have any real control surfaces and they're moving so fast they can't make any quick course corrections. I have often thought that Ukraine's ultimate protection against these things would be barrage balloons, like how London was protected against V1s during the Blitz. Edit: also, one of the big things against the Russians and their Kinzhalis is that the Ukrainians have a fresh supply line of Patriots compared to dwindling stocks of S-300s and Soviet-era SAMs. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 15:34 on May 7, 2023 |
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May 7, 2023 15:31
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Young Freud posted:The issue with 'launch more' is that they've rapidly depleted their stocks to the point they can't do that. Well and another thing for them to consider in the “launch more” theory is that the system has failed already once. You don’t want to have more failures both in terms of PR since Russia was/is trying to export these things elsewhere and giving more valuable data to the West so they can make the Patriot stronger against them. It is a lose/lose scenario for them. I would be real surprised right now if someone wasn’t working on a smaller, more maneuverable Anti-Air system. Something akin to the Hawk but with more advanced sensors and missiles that could be put in the back of a truck and easily used/moved for front line air defense. Maybe couple it with like a 20/30mm auto cannon for taking out drones and unarmored/slow moving targets.
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May 7, 2023 16:03
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Somaen posted:Why don't they call each other instead of making tiktok videos  Michael Koffman makes this very point in a recent Warcast episode (a subscription podcast from https://warontherocks.com/). He is careful to not position himself as a Kremlinologist, but says that if Prigozhin had any real influence or power, he would just pick up the phone and call Shoigu or someone in the Ministry of Defense. The fact that he's reduced to raving on TikTok videos shows just how low he is in the scheme of things. People in the regime with real power indeed just pick up the phone.evilweasel posted:They aren't saying. At least one OSINT guy is fairly certain it was PAC-3 given PAC-2 really, really isn't supposed to be able to do that. Apparently the launch covers are noticeably different, so if we get photos of Patriots in Ukraine we'll have more concrete information. Djarum posted:I would be real surprised right now if someone wasn’t working on a smaller, more maneuverable Anti-Air system. Something akin to the Hawk but with more advanced sensors and missiles that could be put in the back of a truck and easily used/moved for front line air defense. Maybe couple it with like a 20/30mm auto cannon for taking out drones and unarmored/slow moving targets.
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May 7, 2023 16:32
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It's good propaganda, but the question is what is the interception rate? Was shooting one down a lucky shot or is it consistent? We're going to find out eventually, but I don't think we have enough information yet to make any broad conclusions.
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May 7, 2023 16:37
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Ynglaur posted:You're describing Rheinmetall's Skynex system, which allegedly is currently in service in Ukraine in very limited numbers. I was thinking something something with an auto cannon like that coupled with medium range missiles like the Hawk. I’d probably go with a Gatling 20mm like what is on the A-1s. Make it something you could put on the back of a humvee, although with the power of a 20mm that might not be possible.
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May 7, 2023 16:47
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Djarum posted:I was thinking something something with an auto cannon like that coupled with medium range missiles like the Hawk. I’d probably go with a Gatling 20mm like what is on the A-1s. Make it something you could put on the back of a humvee, although with the power of a 20mm that might not be possible. Newer, light-weight turrets use a lot of titanium, and are getting small enough to mount on JLTVs (which, by design, have a lot more onboard power than Humvees). https://taskandpurpose.com/news/marine-corps-jltv-chain-gun-contract/ The US Army has a Stryker variant which has both autocannon and Stinger missiles. https://breakingdefense.com/2021/04/army-fields-first-anti-aircraft-strykers-in-only-3-years/
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May 7, 2023 16:52
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Paladinus posted:There's always the possibility that it's all theatrics and there is no real conflict between Wagner and MoD. Prigozhin needs his men to fight despite ammunition shortages, but because he can't just say that it's how it is for everyone, he adopts the persona of a firebrand patriot mistreated by government officials who sit in their cozy offices, etc. Then when Wagner occasionally get more stuff, his soldiers think it's thanks to his speaking truth to power. Makes soldiers feel like even bigger heroes, too. I dont believe wagner is actually going to receive any extra supplies and its all a bluff. The narrative that an increase in ammo coming to wagner and bakhmut suggests that the ammo is coming out of the allocation set for other areas in the front, implying those areas make better counteroffensive targets than bakhmut. I could also be completely wrong and the mod just capitulated to captain warcrimes, so who knows.
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May 7, 2023 16:59
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Ynglaur posted:
Not sure I buy it. The fact he's objectively had access to massive quantities of other for this past year, as well as sanctioned recruitment channels of his own, makes me think this is just PR theatre for public consumption. Theatre which may backfire and antagonize people who are higher on the pecking order, but which doesn't accurately reflect his poor standing at this moment.
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May 7, 2023 17:14
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Djarum posted:[snip] and giving more valuable data to the West so they can make the Patriot stronger against them. It is a lose/lose scenario for them. On the lighter side, enjoy a silly twitter thread of AI-generated muppets in WWII: https://twitter.com/tommostlyzen/status/1654548202371133445
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May 7, 2023 20:17
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Perun has another video out, by the way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIYC_WUSw4c
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May 7, 2023 20:28
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Ulf posted:We had talked a lot in the early days about what a great opportunity this was for the USA DoD to test their gear in the field, and I’d kind of forgotten that point. This is probably the first time the Patriot has been put up against this particular missile, right? This was probably also why Ukraine was so cagey about saying out loud that they shot it down. They may not have been authorized to admit it was possible
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May 7, 2023 23:35
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Testing go both ways. As long as you bring out the new weapon to use, you run the risk of its characteristic being learnt by the opponents.
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May 8, 2023 00:20
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Are patriots strictly a missile defence system or can they be used against aircraft as well? Does US doctrine call for another weapons system if you see hostile aircraft on radar or can you still fire a patriot at it?
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May 8, 2023 08:13
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They're anti-aircraft missiles that can take out missiles too
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May 8, 2023 08:23
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RandomPauI posted:They're anti-aircraft missiles that can take out missiles too PAC-3 is really the other way around. It was designed to be much more of an anti-ballistic missile system, but also with ability to target planes.
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May 8, 2023 08:26
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The original Patriot was an anti-aircraft missile. It was something of a pleasant surprise when it was shown to be capable of intercepting ballistic missiles during Gulf War I.
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May 8, 2023 08:36
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FMguru posted:The original Patriot was an anti-aircraft missile. It was something of a pleasant surprise when it was shown to be capable of intercepting ballistic missiles during Gulf War I. Correct, but the PAC-3 upgrade was specifically about turning the system into a dedicated anti-ballistic missile defense system. It uses new interceptors, which are based on the ones designed for the purpose from SDI.
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May 8, 2023 08:43
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Russians are going to be frothing mad about that https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1655509805988040706
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May 8, 2023 10:50
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Tuna-Fish posted:Correct, but the PAC-3 upgrade was specifically about turning the system into a dedicated anti-ballistic missile defense system. It uses new interceptors, which are based on the ones designed for the purpose from SDI. A single battery will apparently have a mix of -2 and -3 interceptors for just such occasions
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May 8, 2023 11:19
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