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karthun posted:There is contention that gdp should only be a productive measure vs one that measures all aspects of our society. I lean on the side that thinks it should measure all aspects of our society and I don't think that we are even close to measuring that. Do you see where the "putting your thumb on the scale" statement is starting to get some hostility? Yes!
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May 9, 2023 17:30
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Fister Roboto posted:But how does that square with companies making record profits? Obviously theyre not just offsetting inflation. Typically, raising prices for no reason doesn't necessarily mean an increase in profits, because raising prices has a high chance of causing a decline in sales. Not only do they face the risk of pricing consumers out of buying their product altogether, but even an industry titan like Tyson has competitors who are competing with them on pricing. If Tyson arbitrarily decides to sell chicken breasts for fifty bucks each, people will buy chicken breasts from other companies instead. In fact, that seems to be more or less what's happening.Tyson just released their Q2 earnings report, and it's downright terrible, with falling sales and plunging operating margins everywhere. Their costs are continuing to rise, but their price hikes appear to have tanked consumer demand for their products. Instead of the solid profits they'd forecasted, they actually lost money in Q2.
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May 9, 2023 17:36
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Main Paineframe posted:Typically, raising prices for no reason doesn't necessarily mean an increase in profits, because raising prices has a high chance of causing a decline in sales. Not only do they face the risk of pricing consumers out of buying their product altogether, but even an industry titan like Tyson has competitors who are competing with them on pricing. If Tyson arbitrarily decides to sell chicken breasts for fifty bucks each, people will buy chicken breasts from other companies instead. Ok but thats still an attempt at price gouging. It still worked out for them in the short term because they could hide behind the narrative of inflation forcing them to raise prices, as well as inelastic demand (people still gotta eat). My post was in response to the claim that companies raise their prices to counteract inflation, but its clearly more than just that. See also brjurgis's post about how the language of economics kind of elides the fact that a lot of this is driven by human decisions, and not some invisible force of nature. I heard an interview with someone who had written a book about exactly this phenomenon, ill try to dig it up when i get off work.
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May 9, 2023 18:11
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Gyges posted:As much as DeSantis is a terrible candidate and horrible person, his main issue is that he's been dragging his feet officially jumping in the race. We're still more than far enough out where he could hypothetically make waves in the campaign. However his continued insistence on running without running is undermining his ability to give us a good 2012/16 improbable rise of a god awful candidate that no fiction writer or AI bot would try and sell. He only just got the legislature to change the law that would have made him retire from being the governor even if he lost the federal election so he had to wait. It takes effect July first along with making it harder to vote for the first time in florida, and tougher for 3rd party groups to register voters. https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/florida-senate-passes-wide-ranging-changes-in-elections-laws-heres-who-could-be-impacted/3009623/
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May 9, 2023 18:13
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Bugsy posted:He only just got the legislature to change the law that would have made him retire from being the governor even if he lost the federal election so he had to wait. It takes effect July first along with making it harder to vote for the first time in florida, and tougher for 3rd party groups to register voters. The Florida Legislature is just this side of a rubber stamp for the Governor. He could have gotten that bill passed at any time in the last 5 years, but didn't. Hell, a large part of their enthusiasm in doing his bidding has been racking up favors for President/Presidential Candidate DeSantis.
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May 9, 2023 18:19
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Fister Roboto posted:Ok but thats still an attempt at price gouging. It still worked out for them in the short term because they could hide behind the narrative of inflation forcing them to raise prices, as well as inelastic demand (people still gotta eat). My post was in response to the claim that companies raise their prices to counteract inflation, but its clearly more than just that. No one ever claimed the only reason companies raise prices is to counteract inflation. The claim wasn't even in that direction, it was that one of the ways companies deal with inflation is raising prices.
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May 9, 2023 18:21
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I don't think inflation adjustments are the kind of growth most people are talking about when they talk about "growth".
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May 9, 2023 18:47
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Gyges posted:The Florida Legislature is just this side of a rubber stamp for the Governor. He could have gotten that bill passed at any time in the last 5 years, but didn't. Hell, a large part of their enthusiasm in doing his bidding has been racking up favors for President/Presidential Candidate DeSantis. Ehhh...I think the FL legislature is simultaneously getting sick of his poo poo. There have been at least a couple articles here, with quotes from legislators, basically saying that they're sick of doing DeSantis' bidding because it means ignoring actual problems that need to be dealt with. I'm sure it runs both ways, but the FL legislature is hardly a homogeneous group.
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May 9, 2023 18:54
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Shooting Blanks posted:Ehhh...I think the FL legislature is simultaneously getting sick of his poo poo. There have been at least a couple articles here, with quotes from legislators, basically saying that they're sick of doing DeSantis' bidding because it means ignoring actual problems that need to be dealt with. I'm sure it runs both ways, but the FL legislature is hardly a homogeneous group. To be fair, most of the quotes from Florida legislators who are angry are upset about : - DeSantis seeming like he has no strategy or an extremely bad strategy ("lose the first 12 primaries on purpose and then surge to victory with big winner take all states like New York and California.") and that means they won't have favors with a potential President to cash in on. - Making them look like hypocrites/anti-business for getting in on "cancel culture" stuff with Disney. - Making them drive to the statehouse for so many "emergency" legislative sessions. Except for the Disney thing, almost all of them are fine with the rest of it. They are just getting moderately annoyed about working entirely around his schedule and for his benefit and not really the content.
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May 9, 2023 19:00
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:- DeSantis seeming like he has no strategy or an extremely bad strategy ("lose the first 12 primaries on purpose and then surge to victory with big winner take all states like New York and California.") and that means they won't have favors with a potential President to cash in on. Yeah, I'm guessing 99% of the complaining is this. They would have been perfectly happy to sell their constituents down the river for 4 years of preferential treatment from the DeSantis administration. But that's looking increasingly unlikely to actually happen, so they sold their constituents down the river for nothing and still have to deal with the hits to the state rep and business prospects and a pissed off megacorporation
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May 9, 2023 19:03
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As a Floridian I agree that is mostly correct DeSantis is the ruler of this state so no Republican legislators are openly defying him for now
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May 9, 2023 19:06
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Pew has an interesting series of studies and polls out about political demographics in the U.S. The conclusion that the data points to is that education and age are now the primary polarizing demographics for voters. Among all racial demographics (although, the effect is much much smaller for black voters), Democrats are now significantly outperforming among college educated voters and significantly underperforming among voters without a college degree. Basically nothing seems to be reversing the trend either, which has big problems and benefits for both parties. It is making states with few college graduates and older populations like Ohio, Florida, and Iowa into solid red states and turning states with younger and more educated populations like Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, and Georgia into bluer states. Democratic outreach to lower education voters does not seem to be moving them in their direction among any racial group and Republican's can't seem to regain ground with the middle-class New England college educated voter who used to be part of the party's backbone. No clue if this stuff will stick long-term, but the partisan gaps in age and education for all racial groups are the largest that have ever been recorded and seem to be overpowering other demographics like income and geographic area. The U.S. population seems to be becoming more "nationalized" and less regional. For Asian-American voters, the parties are essentially tied among voters with only a high school degree. But, Democrats have an astounding +77 margin among young voters and +43 margin among voters with advanced degrees. At the same time, the white working class voters with no degree that were the base of the party in the 40's and 50's have almost completely flipped and become one of the strongest Republican demographics. There's a similar trend happening with Hispanic and Asian voters with a high school education or lower. https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1655738227938975744 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:40 on May 9, 2023 |
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May 9, 2023 19:22
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McCarthy is (ever so slightly) edging from away from his demand that the White House and Senate pass the House bill to raise the debt ceiling and says he will raise the debt ceiling without being tied to a specific bill, but there has to be a "deal in principle" first. He says they need to have a deal by next week in order to meet the assumed deadline for default. It's not a huge step back, but it is the first step back he has taken. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1655999215703662604
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May 9, 2023 19:35
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e: nm
Fister Roboto fucked around with this message at 19:39 on May 9, 2023 |
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May 9, 2023 19:35
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Fister Roboto posted:OK, noted. Could you address any of my other points please? Such as the question that others have asked you, for whom is continuous growth "perfectly sustainable"? Continuous growth at the macroeconomic level is perfectly sustainable so long as the causes of continuous growth are sustained: population growth and technological advances. Continuous growth of individual companies is sustainable until they exhaust their market. See Meta.
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May 9, 2023 19:43
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The jury has reached a verdict in the Trump rape trial after about 4 hours of deliberations. Verdict should be read within the hour.
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May 9, 2023 19:45
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:McCarthy is (ever so slightly) edging from away from his demand that the White House and Senate pass the House bill to raise the debt ceiling and says he will raise the debt ceiling without being tied to a specific bill, but there has to be a "deal in principle" first. He says they need to have a deal by next week in order to meet the assumed deadline for default. So I'm guessing his bigger doners started making some sternly-worded phonecalls to his office and what they would figuratively do to his political aspirations if thr debt limit wasn't raised?
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May 9, 2023 19:49
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Randalor posted:So I'm guessing his bigger doners started making some sternly-worded phonecalls to his office and what they would figuratively do to his political aspirations if thr debt limit wasn't raised? Probably not just his biggest donors, but every major Republican donor except the truest of the true believers.
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May 9, 2023 19:50
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Every business and finance leader in America. Nobody wants a default except the republicans so far gone they're living entirely outside reality
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May 9, 2023 19:53
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A mix of that and I bet some polling came back saying they'd get the blame.
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May 9, 2023 19:55
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Randalor posted:So I'm guessing his bigger doners started making some sternly-worded phonecalls to his office and what they would figuratively do to his political aspirations if thr debt limit wasn't raised? Maybe, but McCarthy is also spineless so he's probably just repeating what the last person he spoked to told him. Hard to say if this will actually signal we're moving in a good direction or not.
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May 9, 2023 19:59
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The Republican plan for some time now has been to make the country as ungovernable and nonfunctional as possible when they aren't in power. Politically, it hasn't been a failure for them, even if it hasn't been a success either. It helps that Fox News is so assiduously dedicated to controlling the narrative.
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May 9, 2023 20:02
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Court is expected to reconvene and the jury read the verdict momentarily in the Trump rape case. Also, the NYT has a brief explainer about what happens if the U.S. defaults and what the stock markets are doing: The tl;dr is: - Last time, in 2011, the U.S. didn't actually fully default, but they did pass the initial deadline and had the nation's credit rating downgraded. The stock market fell 10% in a single day and was down 16% within 3 days. - All businesses and banks that rely on making payments via income from treasury bonds or who have invoices to the federal government would not receive their money. The effects of that could vary dramatically. Some firms would be unable to make payments, some may be able to with extraordinary measures, and some would be able to float for a short amount of time. - People would likely panic sell and try to get out of U.S. debt or treasuries all at once. This would likely collapse the U.S. bond market and fundamentally undermine the trust-based system where the U.S. acts as a guarantor of payment and store of value for countries, companies, and individuals all throughout the world. Nobody knows exactly how fast or hard it would hit because there are so many factors, but it would range from immediately disastrous to moderately bad and get worse the longer it goes on. A lot of the damage would happen right away from crossing the Rubicon and people panicking. Currently, investors are assuming that they won't default, but also have no idea how to price in the chance of default and are just assuming everything will work out unless it doesn't. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1656007415333003264 quote:How Wall Street Is Preparing for a Debt Ceiling Showdown
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May 9, 2023 20:12
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GlyphGryph posted:The US birth rate is 1.64 and falling. We had had several years of growth of only like two tenths of a percent, and that growth was based *entirely* on immigration. Birth rates are falling worldwide, including in the countries we currently rely on to keep our own population stable. The same UN also projects that the US population is going to get steadily older, and thats not exactly a sustainable model for growth either. There's a nice table in this wikipedia article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth If by "currently papering over a decline" you mean the birth rate is below replacement and population growth is due to immigration, you are technically correct but I would be very careful about making any decisions on that basis.
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May 9, 2023 20:16
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Jury verdict reached in Trump rape trial: - Jury finds Trump did defame E. Jean Carroll. - Jury finds Trump did sexually assault/commit battery against E. Jean Carroll. - Jury says Trump did not rape E. Jean Carroll. - Jury awards Carroll $5 million in damages. Edit: News story just went up. Link: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/09/nyregion/trump-carroll-rape-trial-verdict?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur Edit 2: Jury announced they have awarded her $5 million in damages. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:23 on May 9, 2023 |
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May 9, 2023 20:17
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Jury verdict reached in Trump rape trial: Next question of course will be how long Trump can drag this out on appeals once damages are decided.
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May 9, 2023 20:22
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NYT also reporting that all the verdicts were unanimous (both in finding him liable for defamation/sexual assault and rejecting the rape claim).
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May 9, 2023 20:30
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Feinstein is reportedly on her way back to D.C. tonight. https://twitter.com/kwelkernbc/status/1656013000505978881 Trump also still scheduled to do his town hall event on CNN tomorrow.
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May 9, 2023 20:41
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Guess I never thought about it, but theres a legal definition for rape vs sexual assault. God I hate this world.
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May 9, 2023 20:43
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Trump confirms he will appeal the decision and decides to make a public statement (against the wishes of his lawyers). https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1656023624552259593 Old Surly posted:Guess I never thought about it, but theres a legal definition for rape vs sexual assault. God I hate this world. Most jurisdictions have a difference. It's usually fondling/groping/kissing vs. penetration/intercourse.
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May 9, 2023 20:52
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I wonder if Tacopina has him on daily/weekly invoicing, or is just planning on writing a bunch of this down as a cost of doing business to get his name in the press (and make him more prominent in right wing circles). Trump has burned so many lawyers in the past I'm surprised he's able to find even bad counsel at this point.
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May 9, 2023 21:19
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Shooting Blanks posted:I wonder if Tacopina has him on daily/weekly invoicing, or is just planning on writing a bunch of this down as a cost of doing business to get his name in the press (and make him more prominent in right wing circles). Trump has burned so many lawyers in the past I'm surprised he's able to find even bad counsel at this point. If Tacopina has any sense, he was paid ahead of time. Otherwise, he's working pro bono.
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May 9, 2023 21:29
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Randalor posted:So I'm guessing his bigger doners started making some sternly-worded phonecalls to his office and what they would figuratively do to his political aspirations if thr debt limit wasn't raised? This line of thinking seems to make sense but don't all the rich bloodsuckers love a depression? They get to buy everything for cheap.
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May 9, 2023 22:06
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Old Surly posted:Guess I never thought about it, but theres a legal definition for rape vs sexual assault. God I hate this world. What the heck is the difference? Because until this exact moment I thought they were different names for the same thing.
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May 9, 2023 22:18
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:What the heck is the difference? Because until this exact moment I thought they were different names for the same thing. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Most jurisdictions have a difference. It's usually fondling/groping/kissing vs. penetration/intercourse. Functionally, it's similar to how Manslaughter and Murder often have different standards for being charged.
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May 9, 2023 22:22
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https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1656050429644673026 Charges have been fired under seal so we don't know what they are yet.
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May 9, 2023 22:41
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the logical conclusion is that it's for some kind of election related fraud what with all the lies, but i really hope it's something new that comes in completely from left field
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May 9, 2023 22:45
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Piell posted:Charges have been fired under seal so we don't know what they are yet. But we have an idea! https://twitter.com/SeamusHughes/status/1656052130090819585?s=20
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May 9, 2023 22:46
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Fister Roboto posted:Ok but thats still an attempt at price gouging. It still worked out for them in the short term because they could hide behind the narrative of inflation forcing them to raise prices, as well as inelastic demand (people still gotta eat). My post was in response to the claim that companies raise their prices to counteract inflation, but its clearly more than just that. Well, my point is that price gouging doesn't usually work. Consumers will respond to price increases by changing their buying behavior, and competitors will respond by taking the opportunity to undercut the gouger. For price gouging to be effective, there has to be some force preventing those two things from happening, such as massive supply shortages or drastic demand spikes. That's why price gouging is generally brought up in the context of disasters. And that's why writing off a price spike as "corporate greed" or "price gouging" is meaningless. Corporations are always* greedy and always* want to make as much money as they can, so unusual price increases have to have some extra cause beyond those two things. * In a spherical frictionless market that behaves exactly like an economics textbook, anyway. But given that the incentive structures of capitalism generally favor that behavior, and that this discussion is generally focused on that behavior, I think it's fine to operate under that assumption for the purposes of this discussion.
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May 9, 2023 22:50
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Main Paineframe posted:Well, my point is that price gouging doesn't usually work. Consumers will respond to price increases by changing their buying behavior, and competitors will respond by taking the opportunity to undercut the gouger. Are you just ignoring the existence of cartels and price-fixing?
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May 9, 2023 22:55
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