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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1656752803484692499
There is no war in Ba Sing Se Ukraine

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Dr. Quarex
Apr 18, 2003

I'M A BIG DORK WHO POSTS TOO MUCH ABOUT CONVENTIONS LOOK AT THIS

TOVA TOVA TOVA
"The truth is, we fully retreated days ago. There are no troops to have been overrun"

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Grads are loving terrifying


This is the road east to Russia, at Novoazovske,



The rats are fleeing


https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/11/zelenskyy-vows-to-give-russia-an-unpleasant-surprise-in-ukrainian-counteroffensive

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

The ultimate punishment for traitors - living the rest of their lives in Russia

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
hee hee hee i have some cope from WarGonzo

WarGonzo posted:

How quickly the mood has changed in the Russian telegram segment over the past couple of hours!

From “Everything is lost, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have surrounded Bakhmut and are going to Belgorod!”, to “hee hee, the CIPSO offensive failed in the comments. The enemy suffered heavy losses."

Today's events cannot be taken seriously. The enemy has progress. Somewhere more, somewhere less, but it is, and will have an impact on the further development of events.

The offensive did not begin today or yesterday, the enemy is daily looking for our weak points and trying to hit them.

So it was with reconnaissance in battle in Zaporozhye, constant attempts to land on the island ridge near Kherson, undermining the railway track in our rear, the murder of Vladlen and the attempt on Prilepin.

All of these are pieces of the same puzzle. And where the last piece will fall is not yet clear.

Therefore, it is criminal to treat what is happening frivolously.

To panic is like death.

WarGonzo RU posted:

Как быстро поменялось настроение в русском сегменте телеграмма за последние пару часов!

От «Всё пропало, ВСУ окружили Бахмут и идут на Белгород!», до «хи-хи, наступление ЦИПСО в комментариях провалилось. Враг понёс большие потери».

События сегодняшнего дня нельзя не воспринимать всерьёз. Продвижение у противника есть. Где-то больше, где-то меньше, но оно есть, и будет оказывать влияние на дальнейшее развитие событий.

Наступление началось не сегодня и не вчера, враг ежедневно ищет наши слабые места и пытается бить в них.

Так было с разведкой боем на Запорожье, постоянными попытками высадиться на островной гряде под Херсоном, подрывами железнодорожного полотна в нашем тылу, убийством Владлена и покушением на Прилепина.

Всё это – куски одного пазла. И куда ляжет последний кусок пока не ясно.

Поэтому относиться к происходящему несерьёзно – преступно.

Поддаваться панике – смерти подобно.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Peg Leg Pegov coming up with one of the only sober assessments among the panicking Voenkor community is unexpected.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Can I really not even search that loving lovely Birdsite now without signing in or making an account? I want to read Russian tears

Jesus gently caress you Musk, you worthless baby Fash dipshit.

Looks like the copium is already starting though.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

TulliusCicero posted:

Can I really not even search that loving lovely Birdsite now without signing in or making an account? I want to read Russian tears

Jesus gently caress you Musk, you worthless baby Fash dipshit.

Looks like the copium is already starting though.

Most of the really good copium is gonna be mined from telegram, tbh.

Drone_Fragger
May 9, 2007


Putin would be making GBS threads his pants in fear right now of a full scale rout, if he hadn't already done that, several times, regardless.

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
Just speculation but if Ukraine actually does mount a serious, organized and prepared multi-front counter attack then Russia is probably going to fold faster than people expect.

Just driving until the bullets get too thick and camping doesn't really establish a series of fortified positions they can fall back to and defend with spare equipment and supplies they don't have. They grabbed a shitload of territory with a surprise massive attack and have spent 15 months suffering catastrophic losses trying and failing to hold onto all of it.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1656764381646974976
It's over.

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

Cheap rear end :bioware: flag

Drone_Fragger
May 9, 2007



lmao, literally using the cheapest polyester flags they could get. unreal.

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

Reminds me of the time I found a strung up confederate flag flown by one of my uncles, burned it, and then threw piss(yes, literal human piss) on it

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
Alibaba rear end flags

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



I'm reading unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops are mobilizing around Belgorod? Are they really going to cross border?

That seems like quite the escalation if that is true. I'm assuming it's just drone/ rocket strikes though.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Where are you reading these unconfirmed reports?

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

TulliusCicero posted:

I'm reading unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops are mobilizing around Belgorod? Are they really going to cross border?

That seems like quite the escalation if that is true. I'm assuming it's just drone/ rocket strikes though.

This is absolutely not happening.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

TulliusCicero posted:

I'm reading unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops are mobilizing around Belgorod? Are they really going to cross border?

That seems like quite the escalation if that is true. I'm assuming it's just drone/ rocket strikes though.

It's a feint to distract from the thunder run to Moscow

zone
Dec 6, 2016

TulliusCicero posted:

I'm reading unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops are mobilizing around Belgorod? Are they really going to cross border?

That seems like quite the escalation if that is true. I'm assuming it's just drone/ rocket strikes though.

Seems like voenkors saw equipment being moved and panicked. Don't expect Ukraine to jeopardize the flow of aid by invading Belgorod.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Perun made this point in his last video. It's in Ukraine's interest to sow as much confusion as possible. So expect to see a lot conflicting reports and straight-up bullshit.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

TulliusCicero posted:

I'm reading unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops are mobilizing around Belgorod? Are they really going to cross border?

The Russians aren't the only ones to use social media to sow and amplify confusion. And as to Russian confusion, it doesn't seem much like a high bar.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



beer_war posted:

Perun made this point in his last video. It's in Ukraine's interest to sow as much confusion as possible. So expect to see a lot conflicting reports and straight-up bullshit.

This makes the most sense

Ukranian military seems to be copying the D-Day misinformation strategy: make the enemy think you will strike anywhere, probe the lines to spook them, then hammer hard where you actually want to go.

Bakhmut/ Belgorod could very easily be a feint for actually hitting Crimea

deported to Canada
Jun 1, 2006

TulliusCicero posted:

I'm reading unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops are mobilizing around Belgorod? Are they really going to cross border?

That seems like quite the escalation if that is true. I'm assuming it's just drone/ rocket strikes though.

I'd love it if the counter offensive began with Ukrainian forces rushing the border and pulling out guns that when fired, had little flags with *BANG* written on them.

And yeah seconding other posters by saying that Ukrainian forces won't cross the border, but making the locals panic and assume they will has real value. Ukrainian command will want russian forces to think they are going to attack everywhere all at once and oh god there's no stopping them.

TulliusCicero posted:

This makes the most sense

Ukranian military seems to be copying the D-Day misinformation strategy: make the enemy think you will strike anywhere, probe the lines to spook them, then hammer hard where you actually want to go.

Bakhmut/ Belgorod could very easily be a feint for actually hitting Crimea

Absolutely, this happens all the time in war, see Operation Mincemeat: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mincemeat

Pot Smoke Phoenix
Aug 15, 2007



Smoke 'em if you gottem!
Dinosaur Gum
Ukraine should build a wall and make Russia pay for it after Russia gets the gently caress out of Ukraine

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1656756942805561369
Abandoon Tank!

mllaneza
Apr 28, 2007

Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952




mobby_6kl posted:

It's a feint to distract from the thunder run to Moscow

Google Maps says it's less than a 12-hour drive from Kharkiv to Moscow...

Like, not in an MBT/IFV but it's not THAT far and there's probably nothing near that route that could slow down a mechanized brigade.

I'll have a Baconator Combo with a root beer.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

beer_war posted:

Perun made this point in his last video. It's in Ukraine's interest to sow as much confusion as possible. So expect to see a lot conflicting reports and straight-up bullshit.

Russia was disinfo king but forgot the cardinal rule of confusion

Don’t get high on your supply

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

A statement from the Russian Defence Ministry tonight: "Claims spread by a shouty goblin man in Telegram channels about 'defences being broken through' on various parts of the contact line are not true"

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
^^^
"No I am not scared and neither should you be!"

deported to Canada posted:

I'd love it if the counter offensive began with Ukrainian forces rushing the border and pulling out guns that when fired, had little flags with *BANG* written on them.

And yeah seconding other posters by saying that Ukrainian forces won't cross the border, but making the locals panic and assume they will has real value. Ukrainian command will want russian forces to think they are going to attack everywhere all at once and oh god there's no stopping them.
Doesn't mean they won't cross, in fact, the plan has been worked out last year




mllaneza posted:

Google Maps says it's less than a 12-hour drive from Kharkiv to Moscow...

Like, not in an MBT/IFV but it's not THAT far and there's probably nothing near that route that could slow down a mechanized brigade.

I'll have a Baconator Combo with a root beer.

I mean they probably still have that T-34 in Moscow.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

the popes toes posted:

A statement from the Russian Defence Ministry tonight: "Claims spread by a shouty goblin man in Telegram channels about 'defences being broken through' on various parts of the contact line are not true"

Please do not put in the papers that the goblin was mad

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



mobby_6kl posted:

^^^
"No I am not scared and neither should you be!"

Doesn't mean they won't cross, in fact, the plan has been worked out last year



I mean they probably still have that T-34 in Moscow.

THE LONE DEFENDER OF MOSCOW

has anyone ever played Battletanx? It will be like that

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 23:02 on May 11, 2023

deported to Canada
Jun 1, 2006

mobby_6kl posted:


Doesn't mean they won't cross, in fact, the plan has been worked out last year


that's a big ooff.

For any russians reading this thread I would like to say that seems like the most likely route of advance for the counter attack.

Well, it's between that and Siberia.

poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

mobby_6kl posted:

It's a feint to distract from the thunder run to Moscow

Which is just a feint for the naval invasion of Vorkuta.

Private Cumshoe
Feb 15, 2019

AAAAAAAGAGHAAHGGAH
I don;t know about you but my tank is fight :colbert:

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

I really, really hope this is the beginning of the end of this war and Russia turns tail and runs the gently caress away and they do some kind of BS "we accomplished out goal" or whatever poo poo they wanna do and gently caress off out back to the 2014 borders

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

Toxic Mental posted:

I really, really hope this is the beginning of the end of this war and Russia turns tail and runs the gently caress away and they do some kind of BS "we accomplished out goal" or whatever poo poo they wanna do and gently caress off out back to the 2014 borders

:same: but we will see (again)

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually

beer_war posted:

Perun made this point in his last video. It's in Ukraine's interest to sow as much confusion as possible. So expect to see a lot conflicting reports and straight-up bullshit.
One of the first milhist books I ever read was The Longest Day, and one of the things I remember most vividly was how the author explained the way the Allies were able to keep the timing and destination of a 300,000 man landing force secret right up until it happened. Basically, they knew that they couldn't keep it totally secret so they flooded the Germans with false reports and made it impossible for them to pick out the actual invasion plan from all the plausible seeming reports that it was actually going to land at Calais, or the main effort would be in south of France, or they would invade Norway, or something else. The Germans actually had a pretty accurate report on the Normandy landing plan, it just got drowned out by all the other reports. And when the invasion happened, the Germans were paralyzed because they were sure it was feint to pull troops away from the real landing zone (which was Calais). After the war, many German generals still believe that the plan was always to make the main invasion at Calais, and that Normandy was a feint that was so successful that the Allies just skipped Calais and put those forces ashore at Normandy. Motivated reasoning, but a nice demonstration of how much the Allies had gotten in the heads of the Germans.

I assume Ukraine is doing the same thing - flood the zone with feints and probes and false reports, get the Russians all discombobulated and confused, so when the real attack occurs they don't pick up on it until it is too late to respond effectively. So yeah, we are in for an absolute torrent of confusing nonsense, most of which is being generated intentionally to mask where and when the actual counteroffensive is happening.

Which means we armchair general types have to be extra careful when it comes to reading too much into reports or breathlessly repeating the latest crumbs of news.

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
I loving love reading tankies talk about 2014 coup and just missing out all the key parts of it to suit w/e hosed up poo poo swirls around their brains. Technically it wasn't even really a coup since the government booted out the president for renegging on government voting yes for EU intergration.

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Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




beer_war posted:

Perun made this point in his last video. It's in Ukraine's interest to sow as much confusion as possible. So expect to see a lot conflicting reports and straight-up bullshit.

Look no further than the Kharkiv offensive. They were telegraphing the southern counter-assault for months. Then they punched in the north to everyone's surprise.

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