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Akratic Method
Mar 9, 2013

It's going to pay off eventually--I'm sure of it.

Any day now.

HonorableTB posted:

Here's some more information:



If you follow any of the telegram channels, especially the voenkors, you can tell when something went badly for them because you can see Rybar and the other propagandists talking about the massive density attacks, but they are absolutely butt-clenchingly silent while all of the Ukrainian channels light up with memes laughing about how good their air defense is

You can see it here - this is an example of the voenkor side getting geared up to crow about the strikes as soon as they get word from the "big" voenkors (think, Rybar/WarGonzo/etc) to post about it on their smaller channels. That cycle gets interrupted and just leaves with cliffhanger posts like this where they just never follow up and everyone memory holes the whole thing to avoid admitting the attacks were a failure:



It's really weird that they don't just announce that they destroyed it anyway. Like, weren't they announcing destroying HIMARS systems at a rate that exceeded the total ever sent to Ukraine? So obviously they have no problem just saying "hell yeah we blew up their stuff" regardless of reality.

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GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

Victis posted:

Not magically at first, no

But western ordinance means SEAD and possible progress towards actual air superiority

Which means some strike capability and the potential for CAS beyond lobbing dumb-fires

(rubs hands)

So when do those MiG-31s start turning into shooting stars

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006

It’s probably not a good idea to take claims from either side at face value.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

"F-16 and other western jets" doesn't make any sense. Neither nation uses them.

I assume it's basic pilot training.

SlowBloke
Aug 14, 2017

Antigravitas posted:

"F-16 and other western jets" doesn't make any sense. Neither nation uses them.

I assume it's basic pilot training.

Other NATO countries nearby do use them, it wouldn’t be impossible to bring a few F16 trainers from EPAF countries to show them the ropes.

vuk83
Oct 9, 2012

Antigravitas posted:

"F-16 and other western jets" doesn't make any sense. Neither nation uses them.

I assume it's basic pilot training.

Why basic pilot training? Presumably the Ukrainian air force has a lot of trained pilots, and it would be more of a type conversion

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

Hyperlynx posted:

Last I heard, the UA airforce was having to operate from very low, though that info could well be out of date. Have things changed? Does Russia no longer have SA-10s and the like in range of the battlefield?

Also, the thought has just occurred: what's the UA airforce currently got in terms of strike aircraft? Because the F-16 can still do strikes while down in the dirt...

e: but, baiting the Russian airforce into fighting away from SAMs and then pwning them would make sense to me. If you could get them to commit.

If the Ukrainians want to be anywhere near the front they need to be low. However one of the big reasons to get more planes is to ease the strain on the SAM network by providing coverage against aircraft, and for that they don't need to go right up to the front and want to be high anyway to get the most mileage out of their missiles.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

BaconAndBullets posted:

It is going to be interesting to see how we, and the rest of the world, downscales procurement after this. We probably won't because "the big one" could happen any day now and by golly, we have to be stocked up enough to not run out of our fun toys during that.

The MIC isn't dumb, though, which is why they actually haven't scaled up production. The government is placing one-off orders, rather than providing long-term contracts. The manufacturers are worried about investing a bunch of money in increased capacity that won't be used for more than a year or two. It's also an issue in other NATO countries.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

vuk83 posted:

Why basic pilot training? Presumably the Ukrainian air force has a lot of trained pilots, and it would be more of a type conversion

They need more pilots, period.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
The intern screwed up the press release, it should say F-16 pilots will receive basic Ukrainian training.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice
What's stopping Ukranian airframes from basing out of nearby countries? Distance? Diplomatic concerns? It would seem to be a pretty perfect solution. Go ahead Russia, attack a NATO air field because it has Ukranian jets there, see how that works out.

Mzuri
Jun 5, 2004

Who's the boss?
Dudes is lost.
Don't think coz I'm iced out,
I'm cooled off.

bird food bathtub posted:

What's stopping Ukranian airframes from basing out of nearby countries? Distance? Diplomatic concerns? It would seem to be a pretty perfect solution. Go ahead Russia, attack a NATO air field because it has Ukranian jets there, see how that works out.

Yes. That is exactly what's stopping it.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

bird food bathtub posted:

What's stopping Ukranian airframes from basing out of nearby countries? Distance? Diplomatic concerns? It would seem to be a pretty perfect solution. Go ahead Russia, attack a NATO air field because it has Ukranian jets there, see how that works out.

Make a list of nations currently at war with Russia.

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Scrungus posted:

I think they got the patriot (at least part of it) tonight bois 😔

Vid wasnt particularly revealing either way. Cant see if it was hit

PurpleXVI
Oct 30, 2011

Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1658368346612547584

French version of the Storm Shadow being supplied to Ukraine. If it's coming straight from French stocks, it would almost certainly be the full-range version, right?

Only registered members can see post attachments!

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

bird food bathtub posted:

What's stopping Ukranian airframes from basing out of nearby countries? Distance? Diplomatic concerns? It would seem to be a pretty perfect solution. Go ahead Russia, attack a NATO air field because it has Ukranian jets there, see how that works out.

It would be an act of war, same as it was with Russian aircraft based out of Belarus (but it wasn't in Ukraine's interest to call them on it).

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

EasilyConfused posted:

It would be an act of war, same as it was with Russian aircraft based out of Belarus (but it wasn't in Ukraine's interest to call them on it).

Is it an act of war? I was under the impression other countries are doing things like staging materials right on the border already. How would a plane taking off and landing be any different from things like railcars and truck convoys moving in fleets of tanks, missiles, IFVs and so on? They would be Ukranian planes so nobody is gonna bat a diplomatic eye if they get splashed while in the air, but the facilities and landing strips would be a point of vulnerability removed from play.

Wickerman
Feb 26, 2007

Boom, mothafucka!
Launching an attack from sovereign territory is different than moving ordinance.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

Wickerman posted:

Launching an attack from sovereign territory is different than moving ordinance.

Guess you're right. The reality of it not happening is pretty strong evidence. Seems like weird distinctions to make but welp, lots of stuff I don't understand.

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



Wickerman posted:

Launching an attack from sovereign territory is different than moving ordinance.

Adding on to this: any base they launched from becomes a valid target, regardless of who actually owns the place. It’s a good way to get a few cruise missiles lobbed your way.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

bird food bathtub posted:

Guess you're right. The reality of it not happening is pretty strong evidence. Seems like weird distinctions to make but welp, lots of stuff I don't understand.

Might be easier to understand the distinction if you think of airplanes as long-range artillery. If Ukraine stuck a howitzer in Mongolia (or whatever) and started firing across the border, the Russians are justified in firing back.

Slashrat
Jun 6, 2011

YOSPOS

bird food bathtub posted:

Guess you're right. The reality of it not happening is pretty strong evidence. Seems like weird distinctions to make but welp, lots of stuff I don't understand.

Basically every nation on Earth have an unwritten agreement that transporting goods into a nation that is at war, is not by itself an act of war against the party that country is at war with, because absolutely nobody is interested in global trade grinding to a halt the moment a war breaks out anywhere while everyone scrambles to figure out who they are committing acts of war against (most likely all sides involved).

Letting another nation's military launch combat missions from your territory is much simpler. You're letting them do so, and you're responsible for everything they do.

Hyperlynx
Sep 13, 2015

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

If the Ukrainians want to be anywhere near the front they need to be low. However one of the big reasons to get more planes is to ease the strain on the SAM network by providing coverage against aircraft, and for that they don't need to go right up to the front and want to be high anyway to get the most mileage out of their missiles.

That makes sense to me!

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

PurpleXVI posted:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1658368346612547584

French version of the Storm Shadow being supplied to Ukraine. If it's coming straight from French stocks, it would almost certainly be the full-range version, right?


Don't want to be first, don't want to be left behind. Should mean a reasonable supply on top of whatever stockpiles we have. My guess is they will want to match what we can supply .

It's seems unlikely that Stormshadow will be completely impervious to Russian defences, even in the best case scenario some will be stopped short. It's s going to be interesting to see how it plays out and if Russia can show much credible evidence of intercepted Stormshadows.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Dandywalken posted:

Vid wasnt particularly revealing either way. Cant see if it was hit

that's an understatement, it shows exactly jack poo poo

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014
Gonna need a lot of Air Defenses along the Kerch Bridge.

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014



Supposedly a Patriot PAC-3 CRI that malfunctioned

Dandywalken fucked around with this message at 14:32 on May 16, 2023

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Dandywalken posted:



Supposedly a Patriot PAC-3 CRI that malfunctioned

Looks like one, yeah.

Kith
Sep 17, 2009

You never learn anything
by doing it right.


Dandywalken posted:



Supposedly a Patriot PAC-3 CRI that malfunctioned

He's tired, let him have his nap

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Kith posted:

He's tired, let him have his nap

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popeye_(missile)

This?

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Are China's hypersonic missiles similar in design to Russia's? And if so, are they currently rethinking their Taiwan invasion strategy?

Arrath
Apr 14, 2011


There's video on reddit from an apartment looking towards the launcher(s) as they flush their racks in about two minutes, firing off interceptor after interceptor. Cool yet terrifying stuff.

Nick Soapdish
Apr 27, 2008


https://twitter.com/br4s1d4s/status/1658170431118139393?t=56SppsonIbM12YWbayaQwQ&s=19

:sickos:

Wasabi the J
Jan 23, 2008

MOM WAS RIGHT

Doesn't the F-16 have a dial-a-plane function to imitate other planes in training?

MonkeyLibFront
Feb 26, 2003
Where's the cake?

Arrath posted:

There's video on reddit from an apartment looking towards the launcher(s) as they flush their racks in about two minutes, firing off interceptor after interceptor. Cool yet terrifying stuff.

Any chance of a steer towards it?

CoffeeQaddaffi
Mar 20, 2009

MonkeyLibFront posted:

Any chance of a steer towards it?

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1658288927235616769

Arrath
Apr 14, 2011


That's the one.

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

Maybe I missed it, but I see lots of missile launches but nothing in the way of evidence of a launcher being hit?

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Fearless
Sep 3, 2003

DRINK MORE MOXIE


A cursory glance at the Twitter threads seems to suggest that OSINTdefender is not the best regarded of sources.

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