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Kanos posted:Mike Pence might be one of the most confusing people in modern politics. He spent four years being the most spineless rear end-licking doormat he could possibly be, then threw all of that rear end-licking out in one go when he suddenly grew a spine on January 6th, and has spent every moment since trying to pretend that he never grew the spine in the first place. He's now running one of the most perplexing campaigns I've ever seen or read about - he's running against a man who fingered him as a traitor and tried to have him killed but refuses to say a single harsh word about that man. As far as the Republican base goes, he's the singular figure responsible for the dethroning of their god king. They wanted to hang him. How on earth does he think he can appeal to them? Imagine going to bat for the guy whose most ardent supporters were chanting “hang [you]” and then deciding to run against him
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May 16, 2023 17:49
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Florida's on the verge of collapse?
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May 16, 2023 17:50
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Eric Cantonese posted:Florida's on the verge of collapse?
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May 16, 2023 17:52
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Eric Cantonese posted:Florida's on the verge of collapse? Once the water table goes salt, it won't be great
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May 16, 2023 17:54
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Well, those all seem like someone else's problem and not DeSantis' problem.
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May 16, 2023 17:59
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Eric Cantonese posted:Florida's on the verge of collapse? Not in the sense that it's going to sink into the ocean next week and descend into anarchy, but Disney has reached the point where they're getting annoyed and litigious specifically because of DeSantis poking them constantly for political points. I'm assuming DeSantis intended for that to be his successor's problem.
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May 16, 2023 18:01
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Charliegrs posted:Yes but that was a government shutdown. Not a debt default. The vast majority of people weren't affected by the shutdown and it's not like it resulted in a massive recession and major job losses like a default would. So basically the only people that were even aware of it were those people who are at least a little plugged into politics news, hence why the blame was correctly placed on the Republicans. But average folks probably didn't even know there was a government shutdown. If you want to compare a default and it's resulting economic impact to anything, the great recession is probably the best example. Obama will always get the blame for it because a lot of people lost their jobs and homes while he was president. Nevermind the fact that it started when Bush was in office and the worst of it happened when Obama was brand new and couldn't really do much to stop it. People don't know that. They just think "Bad thing happened to me. President X is in office. It's his fault." It's really that simple. Keep in mind I'm talking about the type of people who's main priority in life is watching American idol and Sunday sportsball. Not goons on the internet. You are posting from some weird alternative history timeline. Republicans have gotten the public blame for almost every shutdown, and the time they hosed up our credit score via debt ceiling standoff. Also the only people who blame Obama for the economic implosion of '08 are the same one's asking why Obama wasn't in the Oval Office on 9/11 or didn't do anything about Katrina. Everyone else in the entire country blames either G.W. Bush or the inscrutable actions of that dastardly Invisible Free Hand of Capitalism. Are there people who have no idea about absolutely anything having to do with politics and blame everything on the President? Sure, but as hilarious as those late night talk show "man on the street" interviewee turned voter's beliefs are, they make up an astonishingly small portion of actual voters. Most people who have such a simplistic view of politics also either know they don't know anything about politics, and thus don't vote or just don't even know when to vote in the first place. The incredibly reductive and simplistic views of the actually voting low information voter tend more along the vein of believing that the political parties don't throw temper tantrums and hold their breath until the other party accepts their screaming cries of "NOOOOOOOO!". That our system isn't incredibly broken and creaking along via near pure inertia and pealing duct tape. The resulting belief is that it's good to have split government, because then the system will totally work towards reasonable compromise. When these people see one party publicly stating that they'd love nothing more than to see these hostages' grey matter, they blame that party for the situation. Especially since the hostage taking party is fundamentally incapable of not throwing in unrelated and weird demands. If we actually default, and the economy yells at Black Tuesday to, "Hold My Beer", people will be pissed. Biden will almost definitely see political backlash. However it won't be because America holds him responsible for the default, and the Republicans certainly won't be getting any support. Biden would be hurt because he's a guy that nobody wants to run again who also hasn't magically fixed things via presidenting. However, that misplaced anger will not immediately show up, it'll take a while and depend largely on how good his public performance of looking like he's trying to do something is. A world where we default is also probably a world where McCarthy and the House GOP continue to channel the fusion energy of The Keystone Cops and The Judge in Caddyshack. Which is completely ignoring that how a default will actually work will end up placing almost all the blame in the hands of the Supreme Court. If McCarthy and Biden both refuse to blink, then Biden will invoke the 14th and we'll see it settled by the Supreme Court. It won't be a public perception that Biden just wouldn't compromise. It will be that Republicans caused the default, and then when Biden tried to fix it the Supreme Court came through and gave another decision that everyone hates. Though, honestly, as long as Biden actually refuses to stop printing money while pleading the 14th, I doubt the Supreme Court over rules. Our court is very publicly bought by billionaires, and those guys don't want the entire financial system to be caught in the event horizon of a black hole any more than you or I.
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May 16, 2023 18:16
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Kanos posted:Not in the sense that it's going to sink into the ocean next week and descend into anarchy, but Disney has reached the point where they're getting annoyed and litigious specifically because of DeSantis poking them constantly for political points. Not only because he's poking them constantly, but also repeatedly stating "I am doing this explicitly to punish Disney for what they said about my bill". Which... uh... is blatantly against the first amendment. And then he keeps doubling down after they sued.
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May 16, 2023 18:16
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Randalor posted:Not only because he's poking them constantly, but also repeatedly stating "I am doing this explicitly to punish Disney for what they said about my bill". Which... uh... is blatantly against the first amendment. And then he keeps doubling down after they sued. He's got that much of the fascist mechanic down. You don't impress the brownshirts by backing down from a challenge. Part of Trumps charm is that he never apologizes or admits fault, at all, ever.
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May 16, 2023 18:18
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Gyges posted:You are posting from some weird alternative history timeline. For real, 98% of the people who would go ôté for Biden are going regardless for “not republican.” The independent voter who sees “economy bad why Biden pull lever” is dead
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May 16, 2023 18:20
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In regards to Florida, there's also the question of what the long-term consequences will be for all of the culture war bills he's signed into law. I'm curious how many people other than the most politically tuned in are even aware of the details of those laws. I've talked to some people here in WA and while they know who DeSantis is they don't know anything about all the laws he's been passing. But maybe that's just because WA is literally on the opposite side of the country from FL. I'd imagine after DeSantis officially starts his campaign his opponents will start putting a lot more energy into attacking his record, the response from Democrats in particular seems pretty muted so far.
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May 16, 2023 18:39
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the dems may be hoping that DeSantis and Trump duke it out while they wait on the sidelines, but the dems are also morons, so who knows
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May 16, 2023 18:40
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how did this even happen
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May 16, 2023 18:40
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The DNC has rightly abandoned my hellstate
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May 16, 2023 18:40
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Mustang posted:In regards to Florida, there's also the question of what the long-term consequences will be for all of the culture war bills he's signed into law. He's currently getting bodied in all the polls and isn't even actually running yet. There's not much bandwidth to push a narrative on the terrible history of DeSantis until he actually does something that affects the rest of the nation. Until then, he's Florida Political Man doing Florida Political Man poo poo. Also he's terrible in a way that makes everyone except the Republican Base feel bad about him. "Fascist who helped oversee torture, and salivates at the death and misery of them" is the type of thing that only helps him for the next year or so.
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May 16, 2023 18:48
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Any good soundbites from the AI hearings in the house yet? I've come to realize the only real takeaway from when the house invites any kind of tech company CEO to testify is the pure comedy value of boomer rear end representatives asking hilariously bad questions like "DOES TIKTOK USE WIFI??"
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May 16, 2023 18:50
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DeSantis was obviously hoping Trump disappeared somehow -- and to his credit, had that happened a few months ago, he would've been in a pretty good position to take over his base and possibly cruise to the presidency. (Not that he's a really strong candidate, but neither is Biden.) It wasn't the worst plan. But by refusing to just go away, Trump has the GOP hostage, and anyone else who tries to step up is gonna get crucified.Kanos posted:Mike Pence might be one of the most confusing people in modern politics. He spent four years being the most spineless rear end-licking doormat he could possibly be, then threw all of that rear end-licking out in one go when he suddenly grew a spine on January 6th, and has spent every moment since trying to pretend that he never grew the spine in the first place. I'd argue it was all pretty consistent with not having a spine. Going along with Trump while he was president didn't really require any specific action on his part. Going along with Trump on January 6 would've been an entirely different matter.
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May 16, 2023 18:52
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Gort posted:Still seems nuts to a non-American that you guys all have to file your own taxes instead of that burden being on your employers, but I guess not being gouged for the right to do the busywork is a step forward oh they file it too, the IRS just isn't allowed to send you a "hey this is what we think you made last year and this is what we think you owe, if you object to either of those things then file to amend it" based on the W-2 from your employer and other information they already have
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May 16, 2023 19:11
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The tax prep industry is such a great example of the inefficiencies of capitalism. The IRS knows how much you owe them, but you need to figure out how much that is, and if you get it wrong they'll get your rear end (more likely the less money you have). And you can do this by yourself, but wouldn't it be easier if you just gave Intuit $60 to take care of it for you? Pay no attention to the fact this is all thanks to Intuit lobbying to prevent the process from being simplified. Literally creating inefficiencies out of thin air to profit off of them. And of course, most Americans are primed to see the IRS as the bad guys, and not tax prep companies like Intuit.
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May 16, 2023 19:47
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most americans have no idea how taxes actually work, much less how they work in civilized, first-world countries. if i get a raise that'll put me into the next tax bracket and i'll have to pay more so please don't give me more money 
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May 16, 2023 20:01
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The big tax prep services will file your federal return for free under certain conditions. They will gouge you for your state return to make up for it and start adding fees for anything more complicated than the form 1040 such as schedules and additional forms. What really pisses me off is they give people the option to pay the preparer fees out of the refund, which goes to the preparer's bank first for them to take out their fees and bank transfer fees of twenty or thirty dollars. And god forbid there's an issue with getting that refund to you if you closed the personal bank account or flubbed the numbers on it.
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May 16, 2023 20:04
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:For real, 98% of the people who would go ôté for Biden are going regardless for “not republican.” The independent voter who sees “economy bad why Biden pull lever” is dead My sympathies for Ken Bone's family...
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May 16, 2023 20:07
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Star Man posted:The big tax prep services will file your federal return for free under certain conditions. They will gouge you for your state return to make up for it and start adding fees for anything more complicated than the form 1040 such as schedules and additional forms. They actually got sued for this by the Obama administration and all 50 state attorneys general in 2016 and the case finally just fully resolved last year. Intuit had to stop charging for filing state returns in 2019 and had to refund everyone who qualified for a free filing, but paid to file their state returns from 2016 through 2018 last year. I got a check for $90 last summer from the settlement. Star Man posted:start adding fees for anything more complicated than the form 1040 such as schedules and additional forms. They still do this, though.
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May 16, 2023 20:09
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Star Man posted:The big tax prep services will file your federal return for free under certain conditions. They will gouge you for your state return to make up for it and start adding fees for anything more complicated than the form 1040 such as schedules and additional forms. Taking fees out of the refund is just one of many tricks they like to pull; Intuit/TurboTax also loves to push you to "get your return faster!!!!" by getting a debit card from them, instead, and of course it is loaded with additional fees and conditions. Rent-seeking to the extreme
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May 16, 2023 20:12
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Main Paineframe posted:Credible threat? The Green Party has never won a single electoral vote, and the largest portion of the popular vote it ever got was 2.7%, which happened more than two decades ago. They currently have zero presence above the level of local politics, and only rarely even make an impact on state politics, let alone federal. And you're not seeing the contradiction here? Both parties constantly change the rules to make sure that anyone saying what they don't want to hear can't get anywhere near a ballot, and will change the rules on the fly if they start getting too close (First example off the top of my head is suing to keep the Greens off the ballot in 2020 despite them gathering all of the necessary signatures and then some) But then you say they can't be credible because they never manage to gain any traction on the greased incline. How do you expect them to be electable when you're literally not allowed to vote for them? But it's ok because it's disenfranchising a third party and the other two parties say they don't count because reasons. Let the republicans pull this poo poo in a blue county, and it would suddenly be a problem that needs be addressed.
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May 16, 2023 20:21
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Zamujasa posted:most americans have no idea how taxes actually work, much less how they work in civilized, first-world countries. if i get a raise that'll put me into the next tax bracket and i'll have to pay more so please don't give me more money The best one I've heard is people actually think that you can get a raise and it won't be worth it because then you'll be put into a higher tax bracket and you'll end up making LESS than you were before the raise. Like it doesn't work that way...
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May 16, 2023 20:29
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To be fair to Americans, marginal tax rates are not unique to America and a large portion of people everywhere seem to have trouble wrapping their head around it. The "it's not worth it to make more because you lose even more in the next bracket!" misunderstanding is everywhere.
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May 16, 2023 20:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They actually got sued for this by the Obama administration and all 50 state attorneys general in 2016 and the case finally just fully resolved last year. Intuit had to stop charging for filing state returns in 2019 and had to refund everyone who qualified for a free filing, but paid to file their state returns from 2016 through 2018 last year. I got a check for $90 last summer from the settlement. I didn't know this. FreeTaxUSA still does this, ask me know I know. 
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May 16, 2023 20:36
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They actually got sued for this by the Obama administration and all 50 state attorneys general in 2016 and the case finally just fully resolved last year. Intuit had to stop charging for filing state returns in 2019 and had to refund everyone who qualified for a free filing, but paid to file their state returns from 2016 through 2018 last year. I got a check for $90 last summer from the settlement. TaxAct wanted to charge me $100 to file my return, and my return is strictly my form 1040 and state return. I finally jumped to FreeTaxUSA and only paid fifteen dollars. I seem to remember being charged a bit of money for filing my federal return with them when I still lived in Wyoming, where there is no state income tax. It's ridiculous.
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May 16, 2023 20:40
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shimmy shimmy posted:I didn't know this. FreeTaxUSA still does this, ask me know I know. They technically only have to offer a completely free state and federal return if you make under a certain amount. I'm guessing you made more than ~$50k last year. I believe everything has to be free if you made less than ~$50k and federal + some state returns (depends on the state) are free if you make under $73k. Anything above that and you won't qualify for free file for federal or state returns. Intuit was sued because they were charging everyone to file state taxes, even if they qualified for free filing.
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May 16, 2023 20:45
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It was more egregious than that- Intuit did have a free file service, but they made it almost impossible to find. It was hidden from search engines and the path from the normal front page to the free file page was long and obscure if it even existed at all. For all intents and purposes the Intuit free file page was part of the dark web
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May 16, 2023 20:46
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What's also hilarious about Intuit is that they now advertise human CPA services for things their tax software is unclear on, for extra fee, of course, which is a heck of a misaligned incentive when it comes to the quality of the software itself.
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May 16, 2023 20:54
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Elon Musk has had a weird meltdown and is going full crazy anti-Semite/white supremacist conspiracy theorist in the last 24 hours. These are not even all of the tweets. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1658291808592629761 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1658294821679951872 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1658300157170188291 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1658300528504487939 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1658334514462982144 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1658531953329463303 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1658284264738226179
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May 16, 2023 21:00
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Nobody’s going to make him un-rich or take his companies away. This is just the new waterline, he’s showing you he has power and there’s nothing you can do about it because the system, by putting him where he is in it, is working as intended. You can’t use DEI to boot a guy out who never bought into or was subservient to those structures. What’s the fix for Musk that leaves every other part of the status quo that boosted him to where he is in place? Doesn’t exist, imo. He’s like Trump that way; the system is functioning as intended and you’re going to feel the way you feel right now, forever, until a different system is in place. These are the new type of guys, and we’re not going to get less of them, we’re going to see endless variations of them until we either are defeated by them, or we defeat the system that props them up. You can’t let all the money pile up and expect the dragon at the top of the pile of gold to suddenly respect the peasants he got fattened up on.
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May 16, 2023 21:07
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Elon Musk has had a weird meltdown and is going full crazy anti-Semite/white supremacist conspiracy theorist in the last 24 hours. Don't you have to get on Twitter to find these? It seems like this is a good time to never go back.
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May 16, 2023 21:16
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Those tax preparers are a good example of why economic activity is not always a positive thing. If they were shut down and replaced by automatic filing that would be a reduction in GDP and loss of jobs and everyone* would be better off regardless. *Except the parasites
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May 16, 2023 21:18
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Elon Musk has had a weird meltdown and is going full crazy anti-Semite/white supremacist conspiracy theorist in the last 24 hours. It's less weird when you realize that Soros divested himself of 132k Tesla shares in Q1. https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1658306297144516610
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May 16, 2023 21:25
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Adenoid Dan posted:Those tax preparers are a good example of why economic activity is not always a positive thing. If they were shut down and replaced by automatic filing that would be a reduction in GDP and loss of jobs and everyone* would be better off regardless. It would be better for society, but it might not be a reduction in GDP. Assuming that money would be spent on other goods and services and not just locked in a vault forever or ritualistically burned. It would depend on the employment situation of the Intuit staff and a bunch of other things, but if Intuit just folded it might not actually impact GDP at all or very slightly boost it in the medium-term. Short-term, it would have a small negative impact as their staff transitioned to different jobs and likely were unemployed for a bit.
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May 16, 2023 21:29
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It would be better for society, but it might not be a reduction in GDP. Assuming that money would be spent on other goods and services and not just locked in a vault forever or ritualistically burned. That's a fair point.
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May 16, 2023 21:30
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the_steve posted:And you're not seeing the contradiction here? If Howie Hawkins had 40 million people nationwide ready to vote for him, being removed from a handful of states wouldn't have prevented him from managing to get even a single electoral vote across the thirty ballots he was on in 2020. If he had 80 million people ready to vote for him, then keeping the Greens off the ballot via procedural challenges would become effectively untenable - even if it worked once, it certainly wouldn't be so easy to repeat next time around. Instead, he barely broke 400,000 votes nationwide, despite being on the ballot in 29 states and DC, and available as a write-in in almost all the other states. Nobody is ever going to give a poo poo about the woes of a party that gets just 0.26% of the popular vote. The best he did in any state he was on the ballot in was a whopping 1% of the popular vote. You can't blame that on ballot access restrictions. Hell, the Dems weren't the only ones contributing to his ballot access woes; Hawkins was so weak that two state Green Parties refused to list him on the ballot on their states. Outsider political movements (whether they're third-parties or insurgent factions within a party) don't really need votes. It might be closer to say that they need money, but that's not quite right either. What they need is the support of the people, in all its forms. As long as they have that support, they can turn it into votes or into money or into ballot access or into big street protests or into whatever the gently caress they need for whatever political tactics they want to try out. If the Greens want to move up from city councils and school boards with their current level of support, they should be targeting state legislatures or House seats, instead of wasting everyone's time on presidential runs.
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May 16, 2023 21:40
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