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Given how much emphasis Russia has seemingly placed on targeting it, and talking about it in their propaganda, Patriot has clear value over and above its military utility as a SAM system. It has political significance. Russia loves its tit-for-tat, and the psychological fantasy of believing they are "only just a close second" to the US, and "more military advanced" in many ways. They are smarting from the fact their military has been humiliated, and its much vaunted new weapon systems like the Armata and Su-57 are now a laughing stock. They REALLY want to be able to say that their new wunderwaffe missiles easily took out the best yankee defensive system, in order to give their propaganda some concrete material to work with - "See? We're still keeping up with the West!". Its also probably done with some vague long-term fantasy of exporting Kinzhal after the war. Ukraine can and should take maximum advantage of this. Set up fake Patriot decoy sites near where the real thing is. Encourage Russia to spend its time, treasure and limited supplies of missiles trying to take out Patriot, rather than hitting other valuable targets like missile storage, ammo sites, fuel dumps, command centres, schools/hospitals, etc.
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May 16, 2023 19:54
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Nenonen posted:Radars can be incredibly fickle and sensitive and it wouldn't surprise me if something was damaged even by a shot down missile falling to ground and exploding close enough. But that kind of damage would probably be easy to fix, even though in due time the battery would be out of order. I'm more saying that right now all we have is the Russians themselves claiming they blew up a Patriot, some random Telegram accounts posting video of flashes of light, and an anonymous US official who could work at the hot dog stand in the Pentagon courtyard for all we know saying "I'unno, maybe, ask the Ukrainians." I'm betting that actually nothing happened to the Patriot battery and this is just fog of war rumors.
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May 16, 2023 20:02
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Do Patriot decoys exist? I imagine you’d have to have something that can mimic it’s radar to be convincing
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May 16, 2023 20:24
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Some vague plane-shaped news,.though probably more relevant in terms of crossing the psychological barrier rather than action (the original source seems to have an extra "want" there, though my French is rusty)... https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1658544817096347649
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May 16, 2023 20:24
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Moon Slayer posted:I'm more saying that right now all we have is the Russians themselves claiming they blew up a Patriot, some random Telegram accounts posting video of flashes of light, and an anonymous US official who could work at the hot dog stand in the Pentagon courtyard for all we know saying "I'unno, maybe, ask the Ukrainians." I'm betting that actually nothing happened to the Patriot battery and this is just fog of war rumors. I have learned to not bet on anything because that is a sure way to guarantee that the opposite is true  It's likely that Russians really were targetting the Patriot battery but there's no way to confirm how it went. I'm only trying to think what a realistic interpretation of the media claims might be. It's really unlikely that for instance the entire battery was wiped out because they are scattered and they must camo the component vehicles well against spy satellites. So the radar is the most likely target because you can't hide an active radar from detection. But beyond that there's little firm ground to even speculate on.
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May 16, 2023 20:25
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There's nothing magical about Patriot, it's a really advanced SAM system but it can be hit if you throw enough missiles at it. Whether one was actually hit who knows but it doesn't seem that far fetched that it would happen at some point.
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May 16, 2023 20:32
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Tigey posted:Given how much emphasis Russia has seemingly placed on targeting it, and talking about it in their propaganda, Patriot has clear value over and above its military utility as a SAM system. It has political significance. I think this war is basically the best training and Intel gathering operation that both the US and Russia could ever get for a war against each other. Russia is probably targeting the hell out of the patriot battery in Kyiv because they want to find out just how well their newest missiles do against it. Likewise, I'm sure the US wants to see how well the patriot can shoot down the newest Russian missiles. And for the US a lot of the Intel they gather in this war can translate to fighting China too since they have a lot of similar weapons systems.
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May 16, 2023 20:35
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Do the Russians know the exact locations of each patriot battery or are they using the Kinzhal like a HARM missile? Is that even possible?Charliegrs posted:I think this war is basically the best training and Intel gathering operation that both the US and Russia could ever get for a war against each other. Russia is probably targeting the hell out of the patriot battery in Kyiv because they want to find out just how well their newest missiles do against it. Likewise, I'm sure the US wants to see how well the patriot can shoot down the newest Russian missiles. And for the US a lot of the Intel they gather in this war can translate to fighting China too since they have a lot of similar weapons systems. I hope I'm wrong but the Russia/Ukraine war feels like our century's version of the Spanish Civil War and all the implications that has.
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May 16, 2023 20:46
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Russia does not have the capacity to wage another large scale war during/after Ukraine, nor does it have strong enough willing allies to wage war on it's behalf. So no this is unlikely to be the per-cursor to WW3.
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May 16, 2023 20:50
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Popete posted:Russia does not have the capacity to wage another large scale war during/after Ukraine, nor does it have strong enough willing allies to wage war on it's behalf. So no this is unlikely to be the per-cursor to WW3. I'm not suggesting WW3 is going to begin necessarily nor am I suggesting Russia would instigate it. I meant that it could be a precursor to how a war with China could be fought over Taiwan. Or alternatively the Chinese could see how things play out and decide it isn't worth it and pursue a different strategy.
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May 16, 2023 20:52
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https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1658524595236794368 Sounds like Russia may have "hit" part of the Patriot battery with fragments of a destroyed missile
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May 16, 2023 21:03
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1658524595236794368 The dude he quoted was also wrong on many things before but there was indeed a lot of debris falling all over the place: https://twitter.com/juliasskr/status/1658380588284366848 ...I suspect we may find out shortly...
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May 16, 2023 21:12
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Nobody who actually knows the extent of damage if any is going to say anything at this point. A picture of a car with a busted rear end and a guy who "was right on Twitter previously" probably wasn't at the Patriot site to observe the damage and thus is guessing as much as the rest of us.
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May 16, 2023 21:16
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Kraftwerk posted:I hope I'm wrong but the Russia/Ukraine war feels like our century's version of the Spanish Civil War and all the implications that has. This is more akin to Italy's invasion of Greece if we want a WW2 comparison.
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May 16, 2023 21:24
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Nenonen posted:This is more akin to Italy's invasion of Greece if we want a WW2 comparison. No Uncle Hitler to bail them out though at least.
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May 16, 2023 21:32
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Charliegrs posted:I think this war is basically the best training and Intel gathering operation that both the US and Russia could ever get for a war against each other. Russia is probably targeting the hell out of the patriot battery in Kyiv because they want to find out just how well their newest missiles do against it. Likewise, I'm sure the US wants to see how well the patriot can shoot down the newest Russian missiles. And for the US a lot of the Intel they gather in this war can translate to fighting China too since they have a lot of similar weapons systems. It's certainly the best since the First Gulf War in 1990-1991. The lesson out of that was basically, "NATO would be annihilated the Warsaw Pact after 1982 or so."
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May 16, 2023 21:34
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The '99 air war against Serbia gets memory holed. IIRC Serbia was completely outmatched, but still managed to keep its air defense a threat in being.
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May 16, 2023 22:10
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Also, Russia says they killed one, so they 100% did loving not.
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May 16, 2023 22:12
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Hannibal Rex posted:The '99 air war against Serbia gets memory holed. IIRC Serbia was completely outmatched, but still managed to keep its air defense a threat in being. Tactically maybe. Strategically the Serbian air defenses weren't much use if they constantly had to keep the radars shut off just to keep them from being attacked. They spent the entire war hiding them from attack and thus they did not serve the purpose they were built for. Serbia had diaspora informing on when NATO bases in surrounding European countries were launching sorties giving time for them to hide whatever targets NATO was trying to hit. They also relied on stuff like decoys including trying to distract HARM missiles by stacking a whole bunch of microwave ovens in a field somewhere and running them to imitate radar signals. It's going to be interesting if the Patriots in Ukraine wind up being a missile magnet that saves a lot of the softer targets from harm in the coming months as Russia attempts to test/suppress Ukrainian air defense. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 22:19 on May 16, 2023 |
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May 16, 2023 22:17
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EasilyConfused posted:In theory the Soviet Communist Party was highly progressive on women's issues. In practice, it just meant women could work in addition to being solely responsible for raising children, cooking, cleaning, etc.. In 1920 the Soviet union became the first country in the world to legalize abortion, then banned it again, then relaxed those restrictions until it was fully legal again in 1955. Roe v Wade wasn't until 1973. Capitalist Russia has abortion laws similar to your average milquetoast red state (perhaps economic systems have powerful impacts on societal structures) In the USSR, women (pregnant and otherwise) were guaranteed medical care, vacation and parental leave, and were in active duty military roles as far back as WW2 where the many of the most accomplished snipers of the war were women. The first woman in space was cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova, who became a member of the communist party in 1963, rose to join the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet in 1966 and even became a member of the central committee in 1969. By contrast, the first female senator in the United States wasn't elected until 1992, after the fall of the Soviet union. Anyway, interesting topic to be sure. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 17, 2023 00:54
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Wonder what Tereshkova was up to lately? Oh, voting for this war. And did you ever check how many women cosmonauts followed her?
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May 17, 2023 01:00
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Lol at listing a member of United Russia as a member of the Communist Party as if it was an ideological choice I can think of another famous russian who that applies to
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May 17, 2023 01:04
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Lol at listing a member of United Russia as a member of the Communist Party as if it was an ideological choice Don't you know that all forner members of the Communist Party of Soviet Union are clearly dedicated to the cause of equality of all (see the link for a particularly obnoxious Ukrainian nationalist who may as well be on Kremlin payroll).
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May 17, 2023 01:11
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I listed her seats in the presidium and central committee as an example of a woman in a position of power, which is why i compared to the first woman senator in America. I don't know where you're getting this appeal to ideological purity as I have made none.
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May 17, 2023 01:37
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OddObserver posted:Wonder what Tereshkova was up to lately? Oh, voting for this war. And did you ever check how many women cosmonauts followed her? Yeah Tereshkova was absolutely chosen to fly so she could be the token woman in space. It's a shame the USSR didn't have a black pilot on hand, guarantee you they would have flown them too just to stick it in America's craw, and it would have been great
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May 17, 2023 01:50
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Update from the vague leaks department: https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1658599129780502530 Thus far overnight strikes have been mostly at the South of the country --- they haven't tried for Kyiv again, though the night is still young. Damage includes a grocery store.
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May 17, 2023 01:59
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OddObserver posted:Thus far overnight strikes have been mostly at the South of the country --- they haven't tried for Kyiv again, though the night is still young. Damage includes a grocery store. At this point I wonder what the point of these strikes are. They aren’t hitting valid military targets or anything of any significance. Even as a terror to cause the populace to break somehow doesn’t seem to have come to happen either. It just seems like they are wasting valuable and likely irreplaceable material just to do nothing. I mean at least they were using their fancy hypersonic missiles to attack a Patriot battery but so much of this stuff you see just hitting a random apartment building or a store.
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May 17, 2023 02:19
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Djarum posted:At this point I wonder what the point of these strikes are. They aren’t hitting valid military targets or anything of any significance. Even as a terror to cause the populace to break somehow doesn’t seem to have come to happen either. It just seems like they are wasting valuable and likely irreplaceable material just to do nothing. I guess I would keep in mind what the media environment. If the Russians are hitting valid targets, the Ukrainians definitely wouldn't call attention to it, so it's hard to draw conclusions. For example, even when we knew missiles went through the defense net, back when kinzhals had no counter, we didn't really know what they were targeted at. At least as far as I know, the targets were typically described as "civilian infrastructure." https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-used-rarely-seen-ballistic-missile-massive-attack-on-ukraine-2023-3 Also quite unclear if civilian damage is caused by objects after intercept or not. Not saying to give the Russians benefit of the doubt about deliberately targeting civilian targets (which we have a ton of evidence that they do), but that they might be attempting to do damage to military targets as well.
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May 17, 2023 02:48
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As far as Russia is concerned, we have a Shroedinger's Patriot Battery. The USA spokesperson muddying the water and the Ukrainian media liaison keeping silent makes it even more so. Either way with the IRL system, Russia must plan for both situations with near term missile launches (or continue drinking their kool-aid). If it really intercepted 24 whatever missiles in one night, that's an amazing feat and illustrates the need for a half dozen+ of these batteries over Ukrainian cities (yeah I know long shot). If these were going towards apartment blocks, we'd have had dozens of civilian casualties.
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May 17, 2023 03:26
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It’s worth keeping in mind that a PATRIOT battery can be spread out over many kilometers, so it’s quite possible for a direct hit to not be all that meaningful to operational effectiveness.
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May 17, 2023 03:41
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EasilyConfused posted:In theory the Soviet Communist Party was highly progressive on women's issues. In practice, it just meant women could work in addition to being solely responsible for raising children, cooking, cleaning, etc.. drat, sounds just like America in 2023! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 17, 2023 05:32
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Djarum posted:At this point I wonder what the point of these strikes are. They aren’t hitting valid military targets or anything of any significance. Even as a terror to cause the populace to break somehow doesn’t seem to have come to happen either. It just seems like they are wasting valuable and likely irreplaceable material just to do nothing. They nailed a Ukrainian ammo dump a few days back, so it's not all grocery stores and apartments. And in addition to what others have said about selection bias in what's mentioned from Ukrainian releases, there's going to be a fair amount of inaccuracy in the missiles, plus way more in the form of uncertainty about where Ukraine has assets. Remember how bad those maps of Ukraine recovered from dead/surrendered Russians were? Not to say I think Putin's shedding a tear when that big concrete block turns out to be a shopping center or orphanage instead of a bunker.
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May 17, 2023 06:22
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Akratic Method posted:They nailed a Ukrainian ammo dump a few days back Wasn't this an old fuel depot?
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May 17, 2023 11:59
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Gejnor posted:Wasn't this an old fuel depot? They nailed two depots that had decommissioned rockets and rocket fuel, but we don't know if there was anything else stored there. They also hit a red cross warehouse claiming they hit ammo.
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May 17, 2023 12:08
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Hannibal Rex posted:The '99 air war against Serbia gets memory holed. IIRC Serbia was completely outmatched, but still managed to keep its air defense a threat in being. They took out a nighthawk. That's nothing to sneer at.
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May 17, 2023 12:20
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:They took out a nighthawk. That's nothing to sneer at. F117 still gets more good movie than F35. * Steven Seagal goes down with the Hollywood Nighthawk*
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May 17, 2023 12:29
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If anyone is interested how is Belarus after 2 years away. 1. Airport sooks sad, even Kutaisi which is least important of Georgian 3 intl airports (for reference 3.5 million Georgia is operating 3 while 9 million Belarus has 1) I saw a bunch of Wizzair planes and 1 Belavia which I rode. Minsk airport, 2 Belavia planes not even single Aeroflot or Utair. 2. At passport control they study passports with looking glass. In all booths, it looks stupid as gently caress probably want to see if made on basic printer. 3. Customs. First time in my pretty extensive travel when I saw a queue in green corridor. Everyone was sent thro the scanner and everyone immediately waved through. They are just doing the motions, I had 2 huge suitcases with a PS5 inside and a tablet and laptop with also honestly ridiculous amount of wires and cables, they didnt give a gently caress. 3. The city itself looks kind of devoid of people. Even if 200000 left, it is still weirdly empty for a 2 million Minsk. 4. No cops to be seen anywhere. There were way more patrolling 2 years ago. Gone, no cops. It seems they chosen the strategy of not annoying generally people as much as possible and just precision strike at troublemakers. Overall first feeling is stasis. Could even call it stagnation. As if noone commits to anything (no big construction projects or transformation) as if waiting for something and than figure out next step based on what it is.
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May 17, 2023 13:01
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Stay safe.
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May 17, 2023 13:23
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Moon Slayer posted:Stay safe. Thank you
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May 17, 2023 13:28
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 13:45 |
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Sekenr posted:If anyone is interested how is Belarus after 2 years away. Any time you want to post about the tone or events in Belarus you should. There's a lot of speculation in these threads from outsiders about what Belarus is thinking, and more insider perspective would be great imo
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May 17, 2023 13:43
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