Cuttlefush posted:

ironically basically all the various academic/gov buildings where the earthquake people work would pancake and kill them all. at least the seismologists since they don't go outside.

skooma512 posted:

I'm up for anything so long as it doesn't involve high level math.

Microplastics posted:

Please update ticket IPCC-369 (Fix climate change) to "In Progress" and assign it to you, thanks

Taima posted:

Working on this sorry

Stereotype posted:

trees are cool and there should be way more of them. we should replace all roads with trees

Bob Ross Nuke Test posted:

Bob Ross Nuke Test posted:

4d3d3d posted:

https://twitter.com/ProfBillMcGuire/status/1659585905777049600

RadiRoot posted:

4d3d3d posted:

Pretty much this

Also

https://twitter.com/ProfBillMcGuire/status/1659585905777049600

err posted:

am i safe in a house during that, like an old wooden house built in the 40s in seattle

Trabisnikof posted:

paying?

Trabisnikof posted:

4d3d3d posted:

Pretty much this

Also

https://twitter.com/ProfBillMcGuire/status/1659585905777049600

paying?

4d3d3d posted:

Pretty much this

Also

https://twitter.com/ProfBillMcGuire/status/1659585905777049600

actionjackson posted:

from nyt

WHAT A BUNCH OF DOOMERS

quote:

There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed that,

Taima posted:

Anyways this means a couple of broad things for the thread if everything continues on this current trajectory:

1) A strong, canonically East Based +ENSO overtakes the east pacific, destroying the upwelling system of ocean currents that nurture the normally abundant sea life of the coastal EPAC. This will decimate the ability of fishing boats to bring in a normal haul to feed citizens in EPAC countries and beyond

2) Displacement of jet stream southward (possibly extremely so) and intensity greatly increased, causing flooding in regions associated with the jet's canonical new position such as the southern USA. Relative drought in the areas that are normally fed by the jet (Pacific NW etc).

3) Indian Monsoon drastically weakened resulting in presumably exceptional drought characteristics in India. This would massively destabilize the region if pronounced enough.

4) Most areas that are normally wet due to jet-related precipitation will experience some form of decline worldwide. El Nino is the source of some of the greatest droughts in human history and some of the biggest floods. This will strongly stress food supplies, as typical agricultural areas receive far less rain and more typically arid locations receive way too much, causing crops to die in both cases.

5) Strong El Nino is absolutely devastating for coral reef populations.

6) Rocketship-fast acceleration of global warming. People in power will act super surprised about this, but it's been obvious for a long time. The triple dip La Nina we just had massively hid the scale and upswing of global warming. Going from 3 years of La Nina, to a super El Nino, is going to be harsh, and people won't want to believe it. It will hasten already mostly-destroyed political ties as both parties refuse to acknowledge the situation.

Longer term:

Under this scenario, climate migration northward becomes heavily incentivized over the next few years as it sinks in that we're deeper in the poo poo than anyone in power was willing to admit. This will only further erode the trust between civilians and government (which is saying a lot considering it's already dead).

Many areas that have seen very strong immigration in the USA recently are located in the southern part of the country and oh man are they hosed long term. Arizona, Florida, Texas. It's loving insane that we even allowed these population movements to happen in the first place, they should have been at least warned years ago. Maybe they were? Who knows. Basically no one cares about global warming enough to even understand what it is and how it works, so the idea that we could get these people moving south to not move there based on things like science and basic critical thinking is loving laughable.

Long term one would expect a lowering in valuation of homes in climatologically at risk drought areas, and correspondingly strong upswings in valuations in areas that are fantastic under a climate change scenario (this includes the rust belt, long term investment in property there would be rewarded). Other areas would be fine like the far PNW but housing expense is a huge factor there. People who put off moving to a climate-change positive location will often find themselves unable to afford shelter and other resources there.

To me a huge X Factor looking way ahead is how regular (destitute) American citizens will react to climate pressures. They would not be able to compete for housing in the areas less effected by climate change. This would result in a climate surge northward without any kind of resource network. It would be almost indistinguishable from the climate migrations from the third world, and people might finally understand that American underclass is literally third world in structure. That will be a fun realization.

I might answer questions if anyone has. If I ever effort post this hard again, it'll be because poo poo is going down. This could be the first "full fat" El Nino- you know, that good poo poo, that china white, since 97, and the world has massively changed and become so destabilized so this all could be a nothingburger or maybe it'll send us straight to the cool zone..

Relevant Tangent posted:

did he get ticketed or were the local police too corrupt?

4d3d3d posted:

Pretty much this

Also

https://twitter.com/ProfBillMcGuire/status/1659585905777049600

Taima posted:

Honestly I don't have a ton of resources now that I think about it; my knowledge has been pieced together from high level sources and conversations with professionals for decades. I'll bet someone has a better answer than me.

I will throw you one bone which is that Stormsurf does a weekly Youtube video that goes over a lot of El Nino stuff - it's for surfers, but I assume it would be very valuable for people learning too. Good luck:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEFpe8smuAI

I'm going to effort post about this El Nino ok, I might do like 1-2 more over the next 8 months if it warrants. I focus a little on the USA because I live there, sorry:

When we entered a new climatological system at the end of the 97-98 El Nino, the canonical effects we had been associated with +ENSO seem to have gotten rather slippery. I wouldn't take this as gospel, but I am of the opinion that the 97-98 El Nino was so powerful it basically flipped the pacific into some kind of -PDO (or otherwise multi decadal) suppression regime and caused a significant weakening of the raw effects associated with El Nino. Those effects have largely persisted until today, though that might change this winter for reasons we go over below.

(The PDO is still a rather debated topic in itself by the way, in terms of if it exists, and how it functions)

We got back to back La Nina events of the last 3 winters, which in itself is extremely anomalous. It's one of the primary reasons I am scared about this El Nino; the background support for it is huge. You have years of La Nina predisposing the system to strongly oscillate positively. You have the climatological participation of the southern hemi in this El Nino which has very much not been the consistent case recently. The southern Hemi has been fighting El Ninos for quite some time on average. But now we see strong canonical, basically textbook east-based +ENSO presentation with full ocean participation.

It also looks like there may be a minor -IOD (indian ocean dipole) signal but that's less clear. The indian ocean has been fighting against El Nino; been quite warm, in fact the Indian Ocean has been on fire for many, many years. This has cemented the NE indian ocean (Indonesia et al) as the premier surf destination in the world but also is just indicative of the power the indian ocean has been wielding. Everything in the atmosphere has a cost- if one area is experiencing greater than normal convective events, other areas are suppressed. This concept - that climate changes in one area presage corresponding and often opposite changes in another area, is absolutely key for understanding atmospheric systems. Strong IO storm signal depressed Pacific storm signal in general while the negative IOD signal buttresses the pressure events that catalyze El Nino and ultimately result in the ocean-atmospheric coupling that drives the system through winter.

My point being that for a long time there have been numerous headwinds against a canonical, strong EP-based +ENSO presentation for many years. Those headwinds seem to be abating, and this El Nino could herald the re-emergence of Pacific ocean convective dominance denoted by +PDO and other indicators. We'll have to see on that though.

The MJO is an atmospheric event where a "packet" of convective enhancement loops around the equatorial globe, with a corresponding area of convective tightening as well. The MJO looks like it's about to become quasi-stationary in the WPAC and give way to low frequency, near-constant uplift in the West Pacific, which is an El Nino-suggestive pattern and sets up the cross-pacific circulation necessary for El Nino to manifest many of its impacts. Longer term over the year, the El Nino ocean/air coupling essentially supercedes the SOI and an often strong, extremely low frequency convective enhancement occurs in the Pacific. That is a telltale +ENSO signal and represents a firm and difficult to displace coupling of ocean and air.

The pressure pressure oscillations that occur between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti provides a rough index of ocean/atmospheric coupling; therefore we index it, in the form of the Southern Oscillation Index. Consistent negative SOI, free from the seesaw effects of the MJO, is a characterization of El Nino because it denotes a reversal of normal pressure differentials which greatly strengthen and couple the system.

Anyways this means a couple of broad things for the thread if everything continues on this current trajectory:

1) A strong, canonically East Based +ENSO overtakes the east pacific, destroying the upwelling system of ocean currents that nurture the normally abundant sea life of the coastal EPAC. This will decimate the ability of fishing boats to bring in a normal haul to feed citizens in EPAC countries and beyond

2) Displacement of jet stream southward (possibly extremely so) and intensity greatly increased, causing flooding in regions associated with the jet's canonical new position such as the southern USA. Relative drought in the areas that are normally fed by the jet (Pacific NW etc).

3) Indian Monsoon drastically weakened resulting in presumably exceptional drought characteristics in India. This would massively destabilize the region if pronounced enough.

4) Most areas that are normally wet due to jet-related precipitation will experience some form of decline worldwide. El Nino is the source of some of the greatest droughts in human history and some of the biggest floods. This will strongly stress food supplies, as typical agricultural areas receive far less rain and more typically arid locations receive way too much, causing crops to die in both cases.

5) Strong El Nino is absolutely devastating for coral reef populations.

6) Rocketship-fast acceleration of global warming. People in power will act super surprised about this, but it's been obvious for a long time. The triple dip La Nina we just had massively hid the scale and upswing of global warming. Going from 3 years of La Nina, to a super El Nino, is going to be harsh, and people won't want to believe it. It will hasten already mostly-destroyed political ties as both parties refuse to acknowledge the situation.

Longer term:

Under this scenario, climate migration northward becomes heavily incentivized over the next few years as it sinks in that we're deeper in the poo poo than anyone in power was willing to admit. This will only further erode the trust between civilians and government (which is saying a lot considering it's already dead).

Many areas that have seen very strong immigration in the USA recently are located in the southern part of the country and oh man are they hosed long term. Arizona, Florida, Texas. It's loving insane that we even allowed these population movements to happen in the first place, they should have been at least warned years ago. Maybe they were? Who knows. Basically no one cares about global warming enough to even understand what it is and how it works, so the idea that we could get these people moving south to not move there based on things like science and basic critical thinking is loving laughable.

Long term one would expect a lowering in valuation of homes in climatologically at risk drought areas, and correspondingly strong upswings in valuations in areas that are fantastic under a climate change scenario (this includes the rust belt, long term investment in property there would be rewarded). Other areas would be fine like the far PNW but housing expense is a huge factor there. People who put off moving to a climate-change positive location will often find themselves unable to afford shelter and other resources there.

To me a huge X Factor looking way ahead is how regular (destitute) American citizens will react to climate pressures. They would not be able to compete for housing in the areas less effected by climate change. This would result in a climate surge northward without any kind of resource network. It would be almost indistinguishable from the climate migrations from the third world, and people might finally understand that American underclass is literally third world in structure. That will be a fun realization.

I might answer questions if anyone has. If I ever effort post this hard again, it'll be because poo poo is going down. This could be the first "full fat" El Nino- you know, that good poo poo, that china white, since 97, and the world has massively changed and become so destabilized so this all could be a nothingburger or maybe it'll send us straight to the cool zone.

Sheeeiiit bro you trying to activate my PTSD? Well, if so congratulations because I'm triggered

Luckily Engineering took me off of Jira somehow and just never put me back on, and I never asked to be re-added. It's made my life so much better.

Taima posted:

*effortpost*

FistEnergy posted:

for real though, it feels like the northern hemisphere is gonna go buck wild this summer

Just a Moron posted:

https://twitter.com/WillRinehart/status/1659577200478224384?s=20

༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ Orcas take my energy ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

Stereotype posted:

we could have been doing lots of things. I love to imagine the things we could have done to distract from the things we did do and are continuing to do and will continue to do.

Stereotype posted:

we could have been doing lots of things. I love to imagine the things we could have done to distract from the things we did do and are continuing to do and will continue to do.

biceps crimes posted:

well great, now they're going to start slaughtering orcas directly instead of merely indirectly

biceps crimes posted:

reading this post on my big screen oled as i sit in an air conditioned house in a hot and humid climate while im eating chips out of three separate chip bags

mmhmmm

Hubbert posted:

what kind of chips

Zodium posted:

i like building a precise model of this grotesque, duplicitous world

FistEnergy posted:

do not doom. do not doom.