(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Funding and equipping a notionally independent but not really anti-government militia in a close neighbour so that they can cause havoc while you shrug your shoulders sounds awfully familiar 
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May 22, 2023 13:27
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steinrokkan posted:Are they the same guys who went on a field trip to a Russian town some months ago? That was the Russian Volunteer Corps who are Nazis. Freedom of Russia Legion is (supposedly) russian defectors to Ukraine and not Nazis.
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May 22, 2023 13:28
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1660615468128796672 The fact that this incursion is lead by a former member of the Russian government gives it a lot more credibility than the 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russia which is kinda funny. Still very much sponsored by Ukraine and a stunt to pull Russian forces away from the front but I love how Ukraine can do this better than Russia did.
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May 22, 2023 13:30
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NTRabbit posted:Funding and equipping a notionally independent but not really anti-government militia in a close neighbour so that they can cause havoc while you shrug your shoulders sounds awfully familiar This is making my brain hurt.
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May 22, 2023 13:35
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1660615468128796672 There is no "fact", both RVC and Freedom Legion has been a social media psyop and welfare program for russian emigres and unless proven otherwise, its best to treat these statements as a very bad cover for Ukrainian raid. It is not Ponomaryov in the video, Thomas is a moron. Thats "Caesar", another media face of the Legion, a russian nationalist. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 13:39 on May 22, 2023 |
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May 22, 2023 13:35
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fatherboxx posted:There is no "fact", both RVC and Freedom Legion has been a social media psyop and welfare program for russian emigres and unless proven otherwise, its best to treat these statements as a very bad cover for Ukrainian raid. How is this different from the other Ukranian raids? From what I've read it's not the first time they've raided into Belgorod
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May 22, 2023 13:38
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fatherboxx posted:There is no "fact", both RVC and Freedom Legion has been a social media psyop and welfare program for russian emigres and unless proven otherwise, its best to treat these statements as a very bad cover for Ukrainian raid. Totally agree, that's what I mean when I say it's a stunt sponsored by Ukraine. I'm just saying Ukraine has put more effort into making this credible than Russia did with their own incursions in 2014. It's still not going to go anywhere and it's just an orchestrated distraction from the real front line. Edit fatherboxx posted:It is not Ponomaryov in the video, Thomas is a moron. Thats "Caesar", another media face of the Legion, a russian nationalist. Ah, well, never mind then 
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May 22, 2023 13:40
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Willo567 posted:How is this different from the other Ukranian raids? From what I've read it's not the first time they've raided into Belgorod Well, previous incursion in Bryansk was RVC, but there was no real fighting, they just made some photos and ran back. Crazy helicopter raid last year was short and most likely was Ukrainians, which they, of course, have not taken credit of. Every time something blows up in Russia proper (i.e. internationally recognized border), the legend that UA officials state, agressively winking, is "fighting between Russian groups"
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May 22, 2023 13:44
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Dick Ripple posted:Recon in force or advance until contact is unfortunately a neccessity. I would assume this is the intent of whomever is ordering such assaults, whether the Russians are doing so according to their doctrine is another question. This. Occasionally you'll see ground footage as well as drone footage, and there is usually a lot more going on than the drone let's on. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/13nch25/side_by_side_drone_and_infantry_povs_from_the/ If you just watch the drone footage there are a couple tanks that explode in an empty field seemingly unsupported. If you watch the GoPro from the trenches, there's continuous rifle fire, incoming shells, etc from the units supporting those tanks, who obviously don't stand out in the open field.
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May 22, 2023 13:53
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I have not been following war news for a while so I will uncritically believe the next three things said about it
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May 22, 2023 13:59
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Staluigi posted:I have not been following war news for a while so I will uncritically believe the next three things said about it Ukraine is winning the war. Russia is winning the war. Neither Ukraine nor Russia is winning the war.
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May 22, 2023 14:16
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Staluigi posted:I have not been following war news for a while so I will uncritically believe the next three things said about it Putin shits his pants pretty much daily and drinks horse cum by the gallon. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 22, 2023 14:16
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https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1660261077026762753 Truly excellent thread on the potential and practical uses of F-16s by Ukraine. It's a fast read, but I'll try a brief summary. Please read the original thread if you find this sub-topic interesting, though! Brynn knows this stuff very well, and I'm just parroting her.
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May 22, 2023 14:50
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Ynglaur posted:From another couple Twitter threads, getting good, clean airfields for the F-16s is going to be a challenge. Everyone knows this, but it is a big deal. (tl;dr Russian aircraft are designed to take off from runways with more debris.) It's not just debris, it's also the quality of the landing strip. F-16 was heavily optimized to be the best in the air, and mass in the landing gear doesn't help you with that goal. It's also the reason for this funny comparison: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRgF4XjcVww Most of the planes the Ukrainian pilots are currently flying can land more like the F-18 in that video. They will have to change a lot about how they do things to be able to safely operate the F-16. Runways will need to be longer, cleaner, and in better shape. In peacetime, this would not be a problem, but when you are constantly operating off random straight bits of road, it can present somewhat of an issue. Tuna-Fish fucked around with this message at 15:17 on May 22, 2023 |
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May 22, 2023 15:14
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Yeah, I don't know why the focus is on F-16s when giving them legacy Hornets would probably be way better. Of course, all the -18C/Ds have a whole heap of hours on the airframes.
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May 22, 2023 15:22
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Yeah, I don't know why the focus is on F-16s when giving them legacy Hornets would probably be way better. I think it was mostly because there are tons around and some are unused. Though supposedly Australia has some unused F-18s, dunno what version?
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May 22, 2023 15:23
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The MIC is also currently winding down F-18 production while opening up new F-16 production. They might also be thinking more long term for parts and support as lots of countries will be buying Falcons for the foreseeable future.
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May 22, 2023 15:48
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Yeah, I don't know why the focus is on F-16s when giving them legacy Hornets would probably be way better. Yeah the Navy and Marines basically have flown all of the F-18s available to beyond their lifetimes. There was a report commissioned several years ago that basically said "Hey maybe using the expensive airframe for every mission was a bad idea." since they were used to fly simple bombing sorties that could have been done with something cheaper and slower for much of the campaign in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Navy in particular are incredibly lucky that they didn't start having catastrophic failures already. I have seen pictures of the structural cracks and it is scary. F-18s would be a better option but the legacy Hornets are all basically unflyable now and Rhinos aren't available in any numbers. The big plus of the F-16, which that Twitter thread didn't go over is it is relatively easy comparatively to upgrade the F-16. There are a ton of vendors out there that can do it and it is relatively cheap. I don't for a second believe that anyone is going to supply Ukraine with standard Block 20/25 F-16s since you have to remember a lot of this war is advertisement for Military Systems Contractors. No one is going to want to see NATO systems get outclassed by Russian alternatives. The dark horse that no one is talking about is the F-15C. The USAF has been relatively quietly replacing them in National Guard units with F-15EX. Them getting 8 F-15Cs along with 20-30 F-16s would be a pretty significant upgrade in terms of capabilities.
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May 22, 2023 15:55
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1660665662250041347 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660665054071599104 Seems like they're planning on making Russia respond in force and push them back out rather than a hit and run raid like last time.
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May 22, 2023 16:16
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So is it actually possible that the separists actually take Belgorod and have it be independent from Russia? Stuff like this has me wonder what Ukraine's goal is with this https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1660651199945748485
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May 22, 2023 16:17
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Willo567 posted:So is it actually possible that the separists actually take Belgorod and have it be independent from Russia? Stuff like this has me wonder what Ukraine's goal is with this Not even remotely possible, no. It's either a NAFO joke or someone completely delusional. It reads more like a joke, equivalent to Russia's "proposal" for what should happen to Ukraine that they put forward in mid-Feb 2022. E: The Twitter-er states like three comment replies down that it's an ironic joke.
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May 22, 2023 16:20
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Willo567 posted:So is it actually possible that the separists actually take Belgorod and have it be independent from Russia? Stuff like this has me wonder what Ukraine's goal is with this No, these are just memes. I'm sure when Russia turns up with enough force these troops will retreat - the big question is where they'll get that force from and if it will compromise their defences in a more important part of the front
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May 22, 2023 16:20
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It's a tongue in cheek way to present a military op with the same level of bullshit that russia was doing while creating the abominations of DNR/LNR and the other failed bandit republics
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May 22, 2023 16:25
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Willo567 posted:So is it actually possible that the separists actually take Belgorod and have it be independent from Russia? Stuff like this has me wonder what Ukraine's goal is with this No. At best the cross-border fuckery up North is an effort to force Russia to actually dedicate some troops to defend its borders by pulling them out of Ukraine. It's basically just meant to embarrass Moscow - who skeletonized the border with what they insist is an aggressive Nazi state. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 16:54 on May 22, 2023 |
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May 22, 2023 16:51
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Willo567 posted:So is it actually possible that the separists actually take Belgorod and have it be independent from Russia? Stuff like this has me wonder what Ukraine's goal is with this No. Stop taking random idiots on twitter as serious policy proposals by regional actors. e: regarding F-15s, that would seriously own, the F-15 is cool as hell. When the Soviets rolled out the MiG-25 the West took the specs they published for it at face value and went "oh crap this says that thing will chew us up, we'd better field something to match it" and proceeded to develop arguably the best air superiority fighter until the F-22. Then some defector stole a MiG-25 and flew it to Japan and when the West finally got a real look at it it turned out to be a piece of poo poo. Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 17:00 on May 22, 2023 |
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May 22, 2023 16:51
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Looks like there’s some top-tier trolling going on right now, with the proclamation of the “Belgorod Peoples’ Republic.” edit, I’m sorry, “Belhorod.” Sucrose fucked around with this message at 17:04 on May 22, 2023 |
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May 22, 2023 17:00
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Tuna-Fish posted:It's not just debris, it's also the quality of the landing strip. F-16 was heavily optimized to be the best in the air, and mass in the landing gear doesn't help you with that goal. It's also the reason for this funny comparison: All I see are two jets landing and I have no idea which is the F-16 and which is the F-18. Offhand I also don’t know which branch uses which aircraft so maybe you could tell us what we’re suppose to look for in the video? To me it looks like the 2nd jet was designed to land on an aircraft carrier so I’m going to assume that’s the navy aircraft but idk.
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May 22, 2023 17:00
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Boris Galerkin posted:All I see are two jets landing and I have no idea which is the F-16 and which is the F-18. Offhand I also don’t know which branch uses which aircraft so maybe you could tell us what we’re suppose to look for in the video? To me it looks like the 2nd jet was designed to land on an aircraft carrier so I’m going to assume that’s the navy aircraft but idk. The first is F-16 and second F-18. Notice how nice and floatly and smooth the F-16 landing was vs the F-18 which basically slams onto the run way. F-18 needs to do that because thats how they have to land on an aircraft carrier but that kind of force requests substantially more robust undercarriage.
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May 22, 2023 17:04
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They aren’t separatists in any case. There aren’t separatist movements in Russia with any legs outside of North Caucasus.
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May 22, 2023 17:05
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You don't "land" on an aircraft carrier, you crash into it and hope it grabs you before you sail off the front.
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May 22, 2023 17:07
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Djarum posted:The big plus of the F-16, which that Twitter thread didn't go over is it is relatively easy comparatively to upgrade the F-16. There are a ton of vendors out there that can do it and it is relatively cheap. I don't for a second believe that anyone is going to supply Ukraine with standard Block 20/25 F-16s since you have to remember a lot of this war is advertisement for Military Systems Contractors. No one is going to want to see NATO systems get outclassed by Russian alternatives. Yeah I agree with this, I imagine a big part of the conversation in the coming days will be defining a configuration and how to supply the upgrade kits. The important stuff being all internal electronics should mean a relatively simple process - swapping out cables and mounting brackets should be designed to be relatively simple and this process has been done before so all the designs and processes are understood. The only way this would be hard is if the frame had to be enlarged in later blocks but that's like absolute last resort sort of stuff during the design process so its very unlikely. I think Brynn's mention of contract maintainers being an interesting one, that implies foreign contractors being hired and deployed in Ukrainian soil. I feel like earlier iterations of this thread have decided that to be not happening even though my assumption was that it probably already is to some capacity. Ground vehicles you can always ship to a depot in Poland so maybe the need is reduced, but I wonder if there already are maintenance guys signed up to work in Ukraine, especially with more sophisticated things like Leopards and Abrams. One experienced crew chief makes a big difference.
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May 22, 2023 17:08
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:They aren’t separatists in any case. There aren’t separatist movements in Russia with any legs outside of North Caucasus. Good point, they're anti-Putin and anti-Russian invasion, but not anti-Russian.
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May 22, 2023 17:09
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:They aren’t separatists in any case. There aren’t separatist movements in Russia with any legs outside of North Caucasus. I don't think the ones in North Caucasus have legs either, but that's just because Kadyrov's torturers amputated them.
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May 22, 2023 17:17
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OddObserver posted:I think it was mostly because there are tons around and some are unused. Though supposedly Australia has some unused F-18s, dunno what version? Originally 57 -A and 18 -B, last updated about 10 years ago, refurbed the air frames to keep them alive when the F-35 delays blew out, and I wouldn't call them unused as they were in service in the 80s. We sold the remaining ones them to some defense contractor in the US to use as trainers, who haven't paid for them or collected them yet, have folded and rebranded at least once, and seem to have pretended the agreement never happened. There have been calls locally to transfer them to Ukraine, but it's never that easy.
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May 22, 2023 17:19
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1660665662250041347 Also of note, Grayvoron is something like 10-20km from the Belgorod-22 tactical nuclear weapons depot.
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May 22, 2023 17:29
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This incursion is a big flashy distraction that Russia has to respond to with troops / resources, and it also has the nice side effect of making the regime look weak internally. My guess is they wait for the tanks to show up and then duck back into Ukraine. Russia has correctly determined that Ukraine won’t invade them but it looks like Ukraine has found a way to still force Russia to babysit the border. Also no one’s gonna rise up and take cities over this but it may encourage further small scale sabotage and resistance.
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May 22, 2023 17:45
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Young Freud posted:Also of note, Grayvoron is something like 10-20km from the Belgorod-22 tactical nuclear weapons depot. I think Russia knows better than to keep operating tactical nukes warehouse in artillery range
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May 22, 2023 17:50
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Do they, though?
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May 22, 2023 17:52
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Young Freud posted:Also of note, Grayvoron is something like 10-20km from the Belgorod-22 tactical nuclear weapons depot. Why does that matter? Do you think they'll try to destroy or capture the nukes for themselves?
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May 22, 2023 17:57
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Willo567 posted:Why does that matter? Do you think they'll try to destroy or capture the nukes for themselves? They've already been removed, but it does increase the danger of Russia allowing this to go unchecked from a political perspective. Even without any missiles, capturing or even just damaging a nuclear weapons base would be a massive humiliation for Russia compared to just a few border villages. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1660675186826305536
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May 22, 2023 18:05
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