Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
(Thread IKs: Stereotype)
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Just a Moron posted:

Stop loving the tall grass

Don't blame him for chasing some bush. :shrug:

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Tungsten
Aug 10, 2004

Your Working Boy

Puppy Burner posted:

so's everything else. ain't nothing special in that

I have come too early. My time is not yet. This tremendous event is still on its way, still wandering; it has not yet reached the ears of men. Lightning and thunder require time; the light of the stars requires time; deeds, though done, still require time to be seen and heard. Things aren't that bad, yet.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Just a Moron posted:

Stop loving the tall grass
No.

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


cash crab posted:

i've been cracking and pinging pretty hard for like three days or so but i just want to say i miss bugs

I don't

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



Post apocalyptic fiction is American utopian fiction. It dreams of a world in which actions directly matter. No dumb boss, no banks, just be your own exceptional American.

The sad reality is all the bullshit is way more resilient than that. Gas will be $20/gal because a hurricane took out another Texas refinery, your boss will still be telling at you to come to work through the wildfire smoke, everyone will be sick all the time, and cops will be taking most of the tax money to keep homeless people away from gated communities and whole foods.

There's your fuckin apocalypse.

SniperWoreConverse
Mar 20, 2010



Gun Saliva

Nothus posted:

I remember my parent's car being plastered with bugs in the summers, so bad that they used to sell plexiglass deflectors you could bolt to your car to push the bugs up and over the windshield. I don't see anything like that these days.

Holy gently caress being reminded of those deflectors triggered a real old memory. Yeah it used to be like that and they even had various colors iirc

Our bugs have been replaced by weird ones, our birds by ones that sound like r2d2 & some red one

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004

MightyBigMinus posted:

you won't believe how boring it'll be to read news reports of all the heat wave deaths

title

Oglethorpe
Aug 8, 2005

Cold on a Cob posted:

if i still played games i'd play the gently caress out of a reboot of fallout centered around a climate apocalypse where the usa and china go nuts with crispr instead of atomic energy + weaponry

it needs a cool name

you could start out as a child in a compound where those rich fucks put bomb collars on security guards but now the facility is run by grown up failkids who know nothing but power

road potato
Dec 19, 2005
I teach at a school. Today a stunt pilot came in to talk to the students and to promote the upcoming airshow. Just thinking about someone flying a plane, every day, for hours and hours at a time trying to do sicker loops. Burning all that jet fuel.

I guess it's not worse than the 24/7 USAF surveillance flights in the desert between Yemen and Saudi, but...

gently caress.

Lux Anima
Apr 17, 2016


Dinosaur Gum
Copying and pasting a Wired article interviewing Gaya Herrington on climate collapse (bolding mine):

- - - -

WIRED posted:

The Planet Can’t Sustain Rapid Growth Much Longer

Economic data expert Gaya Herrington says overconsumption has brought the world to a dangerous tipping point, but there’s still time to act.
(MAY 22, 2023 1:37 PM)

HALF A CENTURY ago, a small group of esteemed thinkers that called itself the Club of Rome got together to chew over a thorny question: What would happen if humanity continued to consume the world’s finite resources as if they were limitless? Their efforts generated the now-famous 1972 paper “The Limits to Growth,” in which they modeled what might lie in wait for humanity.

It wasn’t a pretty picture. The world, they predicted, was on a trajectory to overshoot its capacity to support continued growth at some point in the first half of this century. Continuing with business as usual—burning through resources while polluting the environment and pumping out carbon—would result in a “sudden and uncontrollable decline” in food production, population, and industrial output by the end of the 21st century. Or put simply, global collapse.

Fast forward 50 years, and humanity is still in deep trouble. In 2020, econometrician Gaya Herrington revisited and updated the Club of Rome’s modeling to see whether we’ve shifted off this terrible trajectory and found that we’ve barely moved the needle. But while we’re still on this dire path, all hope is not lost. WIRED spoke to Herrington to find out what she thinks might happen, how humankind can safeguard its future, and how we have a chance to step up and not just survive, but thrive.

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

WIRED: How would you describe humanity’s chances right now of avoiding global collapse?

Gaya Herrington: Very succinctly, we are at a now-or-never moment. What we do in the next five to 10 years will determine the welfare levels of humanity for the rest of the century. There are so many tipping points approaching, in terms of climate, in terms of biodiversity. So—change our current paradigm, or our welfare must decline.

You cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet. We do not have the option to keep growing forever. It’s as simple as that.

When you revisited the Club of Rome’s work, you found that we haven’t changed course over the past 50 years. If we continue as we are, what’s next?

Everything is interconnected. We’re very interdependent, so our economy is 100 percent embedded in society, and our society is 100 percent embedded in nature. In a system, when it starts to break down, you can see it start to flicker. So you have social crises, crises in governance—rising populism and political violence, falling trust—and we have of course, the environmental crises now—the flooding and the droughts.

Those are warning signs, because the system is always trying to balance out, to maintain itself. But you don’t want to get to the tipping point. You want to heed the flickering.

Ignore them, and in general the world would be much less stable and pleasant, because things like clean air, clean water, and nutritious food will be harder to get. It’s hard to predict with precision for any location, because we have never experienced this situation before, but parts of the world would become uninhabitable and we’d experience more intense and frequent weather disasters and crop failures. Mass migrations would most likely grow in size and frequency.

And of course there will be large inequalities. It’s not the groups that have contributed to climate change and ecosystem breakdown the most that will feel it the most. The people who are clearly causing the most carbon emissions are not necessarily living in the regions that are most affected. Climate change will impact everybody, but we know that Asia is very vulnerable to rising sea levels; we know that Africa is going to have the most desertification.

In your work you analyze whether technology can help us avoid collapse. Is that plausible?

Yeah, so you’re talking about whether we could pursue a “comprehensive technology” scenario [where unprecedentedly high rates of tech innovation come to the rescue].

You hear these arguments a lot, but you don’t really see it in the data. Research clearly points toward a business-as-usual, climate-collapse scenario being what’s actually happening. Take our footprint, for example—we’ve been above Earth’s carrying capacity since the 1970s. And that’s taking in all of our ecological footprint—mining, fishing, farming, logging. Even if we just look at carbon emissions, which has been the focus [of innovation], even there, there’s no absolute decoupling [from the path toward collapse]. There’s a little bit—very tiny, not nearly enough—and we need absolute decoupling. That’s nowhere in the data.

And secondly, and I think this is arguably more important, we don’t want to be following the comprehensive technology scenario in the first place. It’s not the best-case scenario. I hear so often: “Oh, we can innovate ourselves out of this.” Even if we could do that—even if we could, for example, replace bees with robotic ones [to fix a potential future collapse in pollinators], why would we want to live in that world, if we could also use our innovation in a way that doesn’t have to resort to that?

We’ve had warnings about our actions for more than half a century. Why is humanity seemingly incapable of heeding them?

We have all been taught that the only way to alleviate poverty is through growth. And that is simply not true. Plenty of studies show we can have everybody’s needs met in a no-growth environment.

But you cannot alleviate people from poverty without growth if the 1 percent hold onto all of their wealth. So the alternative to growth is of course sharing more. But people are very loss-averse. Once there is already a lot of inequality, there will be very powerful resistance from those people at the top that have a large accumulated wealth and power.

But we cannot grow our wealth beyond a point. So either we choose our own limits, and then we maintain our welfare levels, or we have limits to growth forced upon us through climate change and ecosystem breakdown.


We need to stop kidding ourselves about unlimited growth, and about what technological advances can do for us. But how specifically do we change?

We have to really redefine who we are, how the world works, what world we want to see, and what our role is. A very important realization is that the current crisis, even the biodiversity crisis, is not just environmental or technological. If that were the case, it would have been solved by now. It’s also largely social and ultimately, also, spiritual. We should have a better vision.

Then of course, you need frameworks. Experts are already working on developing frameworks for well-being economics—the framework from Katherine Trebeck and others, or other frameworks, such as doughnut economics and post-growth economics. They’re not anti-growth; rather, they distinguish between good and bad growth: If it supports human and ecological wellbeing, let’s do it. Letting go of the pursuit of growth is not a capitulation to grim necessity—it’s an invitation to strive for something much better.

The shift is really toward meeting everyone’s needs. Human beings’ needs, but also for all life. And that would be a place where people are happier and where nature is thriving. And I think that would be a better world to live in.

Is such a big transformation actually possible?

Human history really is full of societies making drastic changes. It wouldn’t be the first time that a society bumps into limits and says we’re gonna do it differently. Of course, collapse is also not unprecedented. So that is no guarantee.

People ask me: “Can we make the shift, will we make the shift?” I don’t know if we will, because I don’t know the future. I do know for certain that we can. We have the technological capabilities. We have the knowledge, and I also truly think that we have the will.

Most of these measures that we talk about—post-growth economics, well-being economics—are wildly popular. The recent Beyond Growth conference in the European Parliament shows how much this kind of thinking is gaining momentum. Reducing inequalities—super popular. Doing more to conserve nature—people hate that biodiversity is dying out. They don’t like to hear the stories about another rhinoceros species dying, even though they probably had never seen one and they probably never would, but they deeply care about these things.

One thing I liked about the pandemic is that it gave a very good recent example of: This is what we can do—clearly if it’s necessary, we can do this.

How useful are the efforts that are already happening—things like the Convention on Biological Diversity, which is trying to fight back against biodiversity loss?

It’s a good question. It’s very important. We clearly undervalue nature. The challenges of falling biodiversity and environmental damage need to be tackled. They’re global challenges, they need to be tackled on a global scale. We need those international agreements.

The key with these things, always, is succeeding in actually following up on your commitments. This one [the latest iteration of the Convention on Biological Diversity, which first arrived in 1993 and has been updated with supplementary agreements] doesn’t go far enough. It goes a lot further than the last one. So that is good. If you look at the scientific papers, 30 by 30 [the pledge to make 30 percent of the world’s area protected by 2030] is probably not even enough. Work suggests we need 40 or 50 percent. At the same time, it’s already much more ambitious than the last framework, and that was not achieved.

So—I think it’s a good thing. I would have liked to see it go further. But absolutely it’s a step in the right direction.

Alongside conventions, how much change has to happen at the personal level?

It starts with the personal, but that is definitely not where it ends. It does not end with you recycling. These are systemic issues.

An update last year from the Club of Rome identified five leverage points in the system. Those are: energy transition, and food—we need to move to regenerative agriculture—and the other three are actually not environmental but social. Reduce inequalities between countries in the world, reduce inequalities within countries, and then gender equality is a massive leverage point system as well.

So those would be the five areas for you to work in: Find your specific point in the system to work on it with your capability. Because everything is interconnected, if you work in a system, anything you do matters. And next to that, be plugged in. You need to go out to vote. It’s not even about combating climate change or avoiding biodiversity loss or combating income inequality. It’s kind of a battle for humanity’s soul right now.

Finally, are you optimistic about the future?

I do genuinely believe that it’s possible that we’ll see a breakdown, and I just think that will involve a lot of unnecessary suffering. I’m afraid of the heartbreak that will cause. I’m a very privileged person. It will impact everybody, but it will not directly impact me the most. But I will have to see the suffering. That scares me.

But I do think there’s still hope, and I see so many people longing for a change. When I see the younger generation—but not only the younger generation—I see a lot of people who are really energized and working toward this vision of a well-being economy and a society that's actually thriving. I see this more and more.

I was quite surprised when my research went viral. I think it resonated with so many people because they already had kind of a sense, a sense like it’s not working. And I think it’s a very broadly carried sense: that, this current system, it can’t possibly be the best version.
TLDR: Inequality is in fact solvable in a system with limited resources but wealth hoarding.

Just a Moron
Nov 11, 2021

road potato posted:

I teach at a school. Today a stunt pilot came in to talk to the students and to promote the upcoming airshow. Just thinking about someone flying a plane, every day, for hours and hours at a time trying to do sicker loops. Burning all that jet fuel.

I guess it's not worse than the 24/7 USAF surveillance flights in the desert between Yemen and Saudi, but...

gently caress.

At the end of the day those types of exceptional uses of fuels for doing sick stunts are completely negligible compared to the day in day out commercial uses that the bulk of the population rely on.

Last time I checked commercial aviation fuel use is a smaller component of ghg emissions than you might imagine, ~2% iirc. The lion's share is still power generation and everybody hauling an extra 2 tons of steel with them to work and vacation.

I hope that makes you feel a little better about being entertained by sick loop-de-loops :shobon:

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Lux Anima posted:

Copying and pasting a Wired article interviewing Gaya Herrington on climate collapse (bolding mine):

- - - -

TLDR: Inequality is in fact solvable in a system with limited resources but wealth hoarding.

In my research, I've discovered that inequality is actually one of the strongest indicators of whether a given complex society collapses or not. It's also likely one of the most pressing issues today, and here's why:

When one damages the social contract to an unforgivable extent (well-being), you reduce the willingness of a citizenry to want to save and sustain said system.

You also reduce the ability of a given governance structure to respond or adapt to threats on a long-term basis, which means it become less resilient - in other words, able to pre-empt or "bounce back".

Just a Moron
Nov 11, 2021

Lux Anima posted:

Copying and pasting a Wired article interviewing Gaya Herrington on climate collapse (bolding mine):

- - - -

TLDR: Inequality is in fact solvable in a system with limited resources but wealth hoarding.

I agree with a lot of her points but when she says that the economy is embedded in society, instead of the reverse, it signals to me that she hasn't fully grasped how much inertia the economic system has compared to popular will. Plus her interpretation of how society handled covid is wildly detached from the reality of the situation. We didn't change poo poo, as soon as things got hard we jettisoned any notion of adjusting our lives to a new material reality.

Just a Moron has issued a correction as of 05:19 on May 24, 2023

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


lol this country is a loving joke and a half

Lux Anima
Apr 17, 2016


Dinosaur Gum
I thought the bit about humans becoming incredibly upset at just the concept of biodiversity loss was poignant

Like even the more childish bible-thumpers can appreciate loving up the state of Eden

Just a Moron
Nov 11, 2021

Yes and no, there's a tension there between God's creation being precious and caring about nature being pussy liberal poo poo. In some circles it's understood that environmentalists actually worship nature to the detriment of human well being.

There's been a lot of propaganda effort to get American Christians to dump environmental stewardship from their theology.

If they do end up caring about something it's highly compartmentalized

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Just a Moron posted:

I agree with a lot of her points but when she says that the economy is embedded in society, instead of the reverse, it signals to me that she hasn't fully grasped how much inertia the economic system has compared to popular will. Plus her interpretation of how society handled covid is wildly detached from the reality of the situation. We didn't change poo poo, as soon as things got hard we jettisoned any notion of adjusting our lives to a new material reality.
Yeah the Covid part stood out to me as well for the same reason. Covid feels like the warm-up test we utterly failed.

Raine
Apr 30, 2013

ACCELERATIONIST SUPERDOOMER



Stereotype posted:

there is no speed that is too fast for me. i think most people in this thread are the same. everything is actually happening a lot slower than i expected. poo poo should be so much worse by now

https://i.imgur.com/8iUcSjG.mp4

4d3d3d
Mar 17, 2017
Hey look another one

quote:

Global loss of wildlife is ‘significantly more alarming’ than previously thought, according to a new study

The global loss of wildlife is “significantly more alarming” than previously thought, according to a new study that found almost half the planet’s species are experiencing rapid population declines.

Humans have already wiped out huge numbers of species and pushed many more to the brink – with some scientists saying we are entering a “sixth mass extinction” event, this time driven by humans.

The main factor is the destruction of wild landscapes to make way for farms, towns, cities and roads, but climate change is also an important driver of species decline and is predicted to have an increasingly worse impact as the world warms.

The study’s authors analyzed more than 70,000 species across the globe – spanning mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish and insects – to determine whether their populations have been growing, shrinking or remaining steady over time.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/22/world/wildlife-crisis-biodiversity-scn-climate-intl/index.html

Gravid Topiary
Feb 16, 2012

cash crab posted:

i've been cracking and pinging pretty hard for like three days or so but i just want to say i miss bugs
i petted a bumblebee the day before yesterday, it was confused and buzzed away but wasn't very upset and came right back. just the tip of my pinkie finger on the little ruff on its shoulders

Lux Anima posted:

quote:

One thing I liked about the pandemic is that it gave a very good recent example of: This is what we can do—clearly if it’s necessary, we can do this.
:hmmyes: :nsa: :ohdear:

4d3d3d
Mar 17, 2017
https://newrepublic.com/post/171218/how-much-bnsf-paid-politicians-since-disaster-ohio

quote:

Here’s How Much the Largest U.S. Rail Company Has Paid Politicians Since East Palestine
BNSF is busy paying politicians, and meanwhile, another one of its trains just derailed in Washington.

On Thursday, a BNSF train derailed on the Swinomish reservation in Washington state, spilling some 5,000 gallons of diesel. No one appears hurt after the derailment. But it only adds to the over 1,000 derailments that happen every year in America—any of which could turn into the next East Palestine, as lax rules allow toxic trains to move sans regulation and corporations continue making trains longer and crews smaller.

Since the derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, a lot of focus over the last month has been on Norfolk Southern, the rail company responsible for the disaster. But Thursday’s news serves as a reminder that issues in the rail industry are not limited to one company. In the past month, BNSF, the largest rail company in the United States, has not been shy about its efforts to block the growing push for rail regulation.

As Sludge has reported, BNSF led the rail industry in contributions to state candidates last year with $6.8 million spent. It was also the leader in state lobbying, spending another $12.7 million since 2003.

Lux Anima
Apr 17, 2016


Dinosaur Gum

Gravid Topiary posted:

i petted a bumblebee the day before yesterday, it was confused and buzzed away but wasn't very upset and came right back. just the tip of my pinkie finger on the little ruff on its shoulders

:hmmyes: :nsa: :ohdear:

quote:

I do genuinely believe that it’s possible that we’ll see a breakdown, and I just think that will involve a lot of unnecessary suffering. I’m afraid of the heartbreak that will cause. I’m a very privileged person. It will impact everybody, but it will not directly impact me the most. But I will have to see the suffering. That scares me.

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
You don't have to wait for biosphere collapse to see unnecessary suffering; that's pretty much been the modus operandi for humanity since time immemorial. Even if the environment was still 100% tippity top we'd still have barbaric warlords going around displacing people, and so called civilised western states selling arms to said warlords. Biosphere collapse will just turn the numbers of suffering people from millions to billions, but the thing that'll really make the psychological difference (because the numbers sure won't) is that those suffering people are getting geographically closer

God Hole
Mar 2, 2016

4d3d3d posted:

*runs around in the streets yelling at increasingly distressed passers by* WHERE ARE THE BUGS WHERE ARE THEY

/

Egg Moron
Jul 21, 2003

the dreams of the delighting void

Everything is normal because if everything is like this it is normal

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy
I did my part by killing 25-30 wasp queens trying to nest in my gutters in early spring and now its peaceful outside

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/AlexCKaufman/status/1661350987561402368

Monument to man's hubris, etc.

Hexigrammus
May 22, 2006

Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

Koirhor posted:

I did my part by killing 25-30 wasp queens trying to nest in my gutters in early spring and now its peaceful outside

There were a lot of wasps around in the late 90s around the last serious el Nino, then the population crashed. No one cared. Not one single article of concern in the local media.

I killed one yesterday setting up her nest under one of my empty beehives. Probably should have engaged in some micro-environmental bollocks and transplanted her and her nest to the neighbour's property.

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
Good job heat waves don't threaten the electrical grid

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Hexigrammus posted:

There were a lot of wasps around in the late 90s around the last serious el Nino, then the population crashed. No one cared. Not one single article of concern in the local media.

Microplastics posted:

*a kindly orca surfaces near my boat*

Awwwww :)

*thousands of bees wasps suddenly erupt from its blowhole*

AAAHHHHHHHHH

cash crab
Apr 5, 2015

all the time i am eating from the trashcan. the name of this trashcan is ideology


the suffering is here. there's a willful lack of observation from most people as to how this is connected to shrinking resources, but it's true. someone upthread remarked deepening social inequities are what precede social collapse - any major city on earth is seeing obvious signs of decline and each one thinks they're unique, but they're not. my own city is getting a fun reputation for a very dangerous public transit system. there is nothing unique about us that creates a better environment for public violence (with the exception of an accidentally free above-ground transit system), it's just that it's really expensive here, and the suggestion is that we're experiencing a mental health crisis but no one is willing to posit why that is. it's because we're running out of poo poo. layoffs and rising food costs and rich people scrambling for resources is a canary in a coalmine and they're all part of capitalism spinning into entropy because things are starting to run out. i think most people can sense things aren't quite right, and they haven't been for a while, but since we've abandoned the pretense of giving a poo poo about COVID no one can just say "oh, COVID" in response to some dramatic shift in the availability of consumer goods or social resources.

media is pathologizing the vague sense of ennui we're all collectively feeling by circulating weird poo poo about how WFH degrades the "liminal space" between work and home, about quiet quitting and gen z being slightly more resistant to traditional aspirations. i've heard a staggering amount of people say things like, "but i did everything right," in response to their inability to achieve a life they were promised. all of this stuff is the same thing because people with huge amounts of power and money are cognizant of the shrinking pile of resources and they're consolidating before the plebs realize milk is suddenly $15 a gallon and we all start attacking each other because of an equal amount of desire to be comfortable coupled with an unequal opportunity to secure that. it's absolutely correct that mass death on the news is going to be boring. it already did get boring during COVID for most people. our society collectively proved that we can get used to anything in the name of pretending like everything is the same as it was in 2019.

Osv18
Jul 23, 2022

by vyelkin
the eternal now that devours the future.

Osv18 has issued a correction as of 17:27 on May 24, 2023

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003

the stanley cup will most likely be between florida and vegas lol

climate change cup!

cash crab
Apr 5, 2015

all the time i am eating from the trashcan. the name of this trashcan is ideology


the winner gets access to the powergrid

the loser will weep and moan in the mojave

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PYt0SDnrBE

Osv18
Jul 23, 2022

by vyelkin

it's a good thing we're not in an energy crisis and charging up an El Niño cycle. that would be bad!

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
it’s okay if the power goes out, the people can just go sit in their cars with the AC on

Bob Ross Nuke Test
Jul 12, 2016

by Games Forum
Putting my Tesla in puppy mode to avert my imminent death from heat stroke.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.
A multi-day blackout is extremely unlikely, given the area's abundant hydropower from the Colorado River.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.

cat botherer posted:

A multi-day blackout is extremely unlikely, given the area's abundant hydropower from the Colorado River.

*rushes on set and hands you a piece of paper*

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply