(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
As far as I can tell Russian authorities have decidedly not managed to spin this into something beneficial for them. Far from it. Like what are they gonna say that doesn't involve an admittance of criminal incompetence and recklessness?
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 18:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 18:40 |
|
|
i can't speak to what positive or negative impacts it might have on the overall war effort, but surely it must have been personally satisfying to say "ah, this is a home grown uprising we had nothing to do with. oh, where did the partisans with nato gear and ukrainian markings come from? clearly just russians citizens returning from vacation"
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 18:55
|
|
|
I think one of the trickier parts of the "push for peace" question is that in theory the West has a lot of leverage over Ukraine - Ukraine might keep fighting even if completely abandoned, but far less effectively. In an ironic twist, when people who are more sympathetic to Russia (important caveat: not saying that's why the question was raised here in the first place!) say the West should be pushing for peace, they're sort of suggesting treating Ukraine as a puppet or proxy that can be brought to heel by threatening to cut off support. I understand not buying America's rhetoric about respecting national sovereignty and autonomy, especially since it's often applied selectively where those autonomous decisions happen to align with America's interests, but pushing for America to lean more into that tendency to end a war in favor of the invader doesn't seem like a very cohesive position.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 19:04
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I have a hard time believing the Ukrainian government didn't greenlight the raid into Belgorod and I can't see what the upside of it was. Like it feeds into every bullshit narrative Russia has been spewing since this war started and what exactly did it accomplish military? 1) It gets some...problematic yet mutually-aligned people out of Ukraine B) It gives Putin and Russia a bad black eye domestically and on the international stage iii) Given that the defenses there consist of "2 guys and a BTR" it forces Russia to pull precious BTGs from the front to the rearguard. This can create openings for AFU to put pressure on and possibly break four) It has a real chance at disrupting and possibly destroying materiel stockpiles and distribution. This also helps the counteroffensive (assuming its imminent) ε) It's funny and a satisfying "turnabout is fair play" move
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 19:23
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I have a hard time believing the Ukrainian government didn't greenlight the raid into Belgorod and I can't see what the upside of it was. Like it feeds into every bullshit narrative Russia has been spewing since this war started and what exactly did it accomplish military? It's effectively tripled the line of contact that Russia has to defend and be able to respond quickly to should Ukraine try to test their defences again. That means any one spot is going to be far weaker when they actually make a serious push to retake some territory.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 19:26
|
|
|
This whole event forces Russia to take one of three options 1. Institute a major mobilization (AGAIN) to shore up on the amount of men needed to keep the borders well guarded and who cannot be used on offensive operations while still taking up supplies and infrastructure purely by existing. 2. Pull back troops from offensive/defensive operations planned to take place in Ukraine itself to strengthen the border, thus weakening forces in Ukraine proper which is only to the betterment of the UAF. 3. Completely ignore it and allow Ukraine to continue to do opportunistic raids into Russia which has the risk of them targeting military installations/continue to make Russia look really incompetent on both the world stage but also cause chaos and fear in Russia itself, especially along the border. All of these options have considerable costs and downsides that make it tougher for Russia to actually make progress in Ukraine or hold onto occupied territory.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 19:36
|
|
|
Russian soldiers are filming and publishing themselves executing POWs, impaling heads on stakes, beheading prisoners and using skull goblets as party props. That's what they are are showing us. Imagine what they are too ashamed to show. I don't see why anyone would think Ukraine would stop fighting if support stopped. Surrendering isn't an option unless you think people should just stop resisting and voluntarily walk their family into the torture dungeon.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 19:41
|
|
|
OAquinas posted:1) It gets some...problematic yet mutually-aligned people out of Ukraine Yeah the real value is forcing Russia to redistribute their forces, and possibly cut off supply lines. If Russia can't move enough forces to stop these raids they could do a lot of infrastructure damage. If the Free Russian Legion commander is to be believed his mission did not involve reaching Belgorod, which implies he wasn't just given some men and jeeps and told to blow up whatever. He was told where to go and what to attack. On the clancy-er side of things, this is a serious test of Russia's red lines. Which is useful as long as the actual line (if it exists) is not crossed, it shows the West that they don't have to be as concerned about waking up to some canned sunshine for supplying more and better arms.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 19:43
|
|
|
If Russian backed “separatists” came across the US / Mexico border and captured a few American towns and crowed about starting the reconquista it would be embarrassing as gently caress for any US President so I’m not sure how the Russian equivalent could be spun positively domestically.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 19:50
|
|
|
Some news I haven't seen posted here: Russia blocks bridge to Crimea -Russia claims the bridge has to remain closed due to "exercises", but no details. The bridge so far remains closed. -The governor of Belogorod claims that now, after the recent incursion, Russia had to fight of multiple drone attacks, but every drone was defeated. (citation needed) Another attack probing the defenses in the region, maybe? No idea though why Russia has the bridge over Kerch blocked. Maybe they expect a missile or drone strike on the bridge? Edit: I scrolled down the liveblog some more, apparently the Russian warship Iwan Churs fought and destroyed three unmanned Ukrainian drone ships in the Black Sea. Though the article points out there are no sources confirming any of this has actually happened, so take this Russian claim with a grain of salt. Edit 2.0: It just dawned on my that maybe in the context of the claimed drone attack on the Iwan Churs, Russia is maybe thinking there are more drone ships lurking around, possibly targeting the Kerch-bridge? Libluini fucked around with this message at 19:57 on May 24, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 19:52
|
|
|
Could you fill a drone boat with so much explosive that its a threat for a bridge pylon? Probably not but...
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 20:55
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:Russian soldiers are filming and publishing themselves executing POWs, impaling heads on stakes, beheading prisoners and using skull goblets as party props. That's what they are are showing us. Imagine what they are too ashamed to show.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:01
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:Russian soldiers are filming and publishing themselves executing POWs, impaling heads on stakes, beheading prisoners and using skull goblets as party props. That's what they are are showing us. Imagine what they are too ashamed to show. Kinda hard to keep fighting if your supply of weapons gets cut off. Which is a very real possibility if Trump or Desantis gets elected. Especially if we are in the midst of a massive recession from defaulting on the debt ceiling.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:15
|
|
|
Have there been any documented successful boat drone attacks? Where a boat drone actually succeeded in damaging a ship? Because I feel like every single time I hear about an unmanned naval drone attack, it's a failure. I wonder if the fact that naval drones only have 2 dimensions to move around in rather than 3 makes them easier to spot and kill than UAVs.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:19
|
|
|
Cantorsdust posted:Have there been any documented successful boat drone attacks? Where a boat drone actually succeeded in damaging a ship? Because I feel like every single time I hear about an unmanned naval drone attack, it's a failure. What makes them easier to spot and kill is that water in thermal looks like this  Unmanned boats try to keep as little above the surface as possible for this reason, but they aren't submarines.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:23
|
|
|
Cantorsdust posted:Have there been any documented successful boat drone attacks? Where a boat drone actually succeeded in damaging a ship? Because I feel like every single time I hear about an unmanned naval drone attack, it's a failure. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeqszwkqhSo
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:24
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:Kinda hard to keep fighting if your supply of weapons gets cut off. Which is a very real possibility if Trump or Desantis gets elected. Especially if we are in the midst of a massive recession from defaulting on the debt ceiling. Europe, countries like Pakistan, Egypt, South Korea, as well as Ukrainian producers could probably sustain the war if the will exists. It would be bad, but it wouldn't necessarily be the end of anything.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:26
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:Kinda hard to keep fighting if your supply of weapons gets cut off. Which is a very real possibility if Trump or Desantis gets elected. Especially if we are in the midst of a massive recession from defaulting on the debt ceiling.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:26
|
|
|
Storkrasch posted:Europe, countries like Pakistan, Egypt, South Korea, as well as Ukrainian producers could probably sustain the war if the will exists. It would be bad, but it wouldn't necessarily be the end of anything. the theoretical soonest-possible-timeline for something like that to happen is also like, 19 months from now, longer than the entire war to date (much less the practical timeline, where even if the POTUS would like to do something, congressional appropriations and military bureaucracy constrain their ability to do so immediately)
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:36
|
|
|
My take on drone boats being used to directly attack surface vessels by ramming them is that they don't offer anything a torpedo or missile doesn't already do, except that it does it worse and probably doesn't cost meaningfully less. If someone came to me and said, "I'd like to build a torpedo, but it only goes on the surface" or "I'd like to build a cruise missile, but it stays at one elevation and only goes 80kph", I'd never buy it. I'm sure there are great use cases out there for drone boats--minesweeping; distributed sensors (radar; sonar); distributed, attritable launch platforms; distributed electronic warfare (EW) platforms--but "ram this surface vessel and blow it up" is not among them.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:36
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:Not even a little bit joking, precisely this happens a lot every time someone is rounding up undesirables. It's the reason there were so many innocents in US torture prisons in GWOT. It's the reason the purges in USSR spiraled so far out of control. The worst part is that the point someone starts collecting lists, people understand that it's a race to get the people you hate on the list before they do it to you. Salem witch trials too. Also I gotta tip my hat to OP's post/av combo. 
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 21:55
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:My take on drone boats being used to directly attack surface vessels by ramming them is that they don't offer anything a torpedo or missile doesn't already do, except that it does it worse and probably doesn't cost meaningfully less. It feels like we're still in the biplane stage of this technology. Right now, it's Ukraine cobbling together Mad Max maritime VBIEDs. As you said yourself, I can definitely imagine a cheap drone boat that carries a single conventional torpedo and launches it remotely.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 22:15
|
|
|
Drone swarms are something that is considered a threat to naval vessels, cheap threats that occupy CIWS and radars / cameras making it easier for an anti-ship missile to make it through.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 22:33
|
|
|
Cantorsdust posted:Have there been any documented successful boat drone attacks? According to Russian sources one such operation closed the Kerch bridge, which is a success!  Really, it's the best the Ukrainian navy can do with what they have. Support the ground offensive by interdicting Russian supply lines as much as possible and keeping Russian vessels on the defensive.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 22:34
|
|
|
Djarum posted:Well in warfare generally you are holding points on a map. Like 90% of the territory Russia controls in Ukraine there isn't a member of the Russian forces anywhere near them. A good 70% are at various points at the front lines and the other 30% are at various places in the rear; depots, HQ, staging areas along with small garrisons in larger population centers. Now there is a legitimate concern that supply lines can get cut off in which troops at the front need to retreat. This is why Ukraine has been targeting things like supply hubs, ammo dumps, supply depots and command centers. It's a lot easier to cut off the supplies to an enemy to defeat them than to engage them directly. Exactly, this is my whole point. Ukraine could still have a big offensive but it won't be some kind of major frontal assault.
|
|
#
?
May 24, 2023 22:44
|
|
|
DTurtle posted:I didn't know that the US President also dictated foreign policy for the EU and all its individual member states. Lol if you think Ukraine can sustain this war with only EU weapon contributions. The EU can barely arm itself.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 05:23
|
|
|
ChaseSP posted:This whole event forces Russia to take one of three options 1. Russia already mass mobilized in non-ethnic Russian areas. If they start another major wave, Russian kids who parents have the ability to complain will start being called up. 2. Russia seemingly responded well in pushing the force out or neutralizing it. But yes, letting a small mechanized force strole through your border with a country your at war with is kind of a no no. But properly defending their border with Ukraine is not going to cause any severe strains on their manpower. 3. This obviously will not happen. It is unlikely we see more of these type of raids anytime soon, for the reasons you stated.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 05:28
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Bolding mine. They are not ashamed; they are bragging. It's a completely different mindset. That is what Ukraine is fighting against. Eh there's still a lot of stuff Russia does that it never admits, eg targeting hospitals.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 06:23
|
|
|
Dick Ripple posted:3. This obviously will not happen. It is unlikely we see more of these type of raids anytime soon, for the reasons you stated. I disagree - this was a test and it’s going to be happen again. It doubles the length they need to defend north of sea and it’s harder to move units back and forth. I suspect it will be fine all over the border in a week or three when the big push starts.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 07:00
|
|
|
Dick Ripple posted:2. Russia seemingly responded well in pushing the force out or neutralizing it. Really? By what measure? The attackers penetrated fairly deeply and it took the Russian authorities over a day to muster even a half assed response using riot police and other non-army troops. They lost a chopper full of troops and had to blow up their own bridge ffs.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 07:13
|
|
|
Dick Ripple posted:1. Russia already mass mobilized in non-ethnic Russian areas. If they start another major wave, Russian kids who parents have the ability to complain will start being called up. This gets repeated constantly but data does not support this https://istories.media/stories/2022/10/05/kakie-regioni-otdali-bolshe-vsego-muzhchin-na-voinu/ Highest percentage mobilized is Krasnoyarsk , Dagestan is an outlier out of other Caucasus regions. Buryatia and Tyva are known, sure, but overall data points that regions hit the hardest by mobilization are the poorer ones, with little regard to ethnic composition.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 07:23
|
|
|
Comstar posted:I disagree - this was a test and it’s going to be happen again. It doubles the length they need to defend north of sea and it’s harder to move units back and forth. It was definitely a test. If the Ukrainians are smart they will use it when it really matters during their counter offensive. But like I said, I do not see more of these happening soon until the actual counter offensive starts. spankmeister posted:Really? By what measure? The attackers penetrated fairly deeply and it took the Russian authorities over a day to muster even a half assed response using riot police and other non-army troops. They lost a chopper full of troops and had to blow up their own bridge ffs. We do not know the objectives of said raid, but it was basically over the day it started. Have the Russians or Ukrainians released numbers on what the believe was destroyed/captured for either side? My assessment was that the Russians simply responded quickly (not exactly effectively), based off video evidence of them having mechanized forces and CAS strikes in the area. That however does not mean the raid was a failure, and the lack of any further info or discussion on the raid from both sides could be a sign that neither really came out looking good. fatherboxx posted:This gets repeated constantly but data does not support this The article mentions they do not have complete data, and though not always the case, minority areas = poor areas. ISW had a publication from September covering recruitment/mobilization somewhat . https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25 And while they do not give exact numbers, it does show where new units are being/have been mobilized and that these new 'volunteer' units from what are most likely non ethnic Russians tend to be performing poorly. Most likely none of us have seen good intel on Russian mobilization numbers and most likely will not until this war is over, but if I had to choose between the Russian government being fair about recruitment/mobilizing throughout their populace vs basically press ganging their minority/poor/undesirable populations first, I will bet on the latter. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 08:08 on May 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 07:52
|
|
|
Dick Ripple posted:ISW had a publication from September covering recruitment/mobilization somewhat . https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25 What is your point here? You claim about mass mobilization and post an article operating on pre mobilization data, talking about volunteer recruiting efforts prior to September 2022. quote:Most likely none of us have seen good intel on Russian mobilization numbers and most likely will not until this war is over, but if I had to choose between the Russian government being fair about recruitment/mobilizing throughout their populace vs basically press ganging their minority/poor/undesirable populations first, I will bet on the latter. So your source is vibes?
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 08:15
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:What is your point here? You claim about mass mobilization and post an article operating on pre mobilization data, talking about volunteer recruiting efforts prior to September 2022. We can extrapolate ISW's assessment/data/sources and use that to make an educated guess/vibe on that the Russians are continuing to heavily use the manpower in those areas. Outside of classified material, no one has factual data on what sort of numbers the Russians are pulling out, and instead I believe it is safe to assume they are still concentrating efforts in minority/poor regions. My original statement was Russia will not use the raid as a pretext to further mass mobilize, because that would anger those that Putins power base depends on, and instead continue to focus 'recruitment' efforts outside ethnically Russian regions. This is a guess, because unfortunately no one in the Kremlin has stated that this is what they are or will be doing. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 09:16 on May 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 08:51
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:Lol if you think Ukraine can sustain this war with only EU weapon contributions. The EU can barely arm itself. What is that based on? European countries have issues with stockpiles, not necessarily production. Europe has quite robust production lines for things like 155mm shells, ATGM (NLAW, AT-4, Matador, Carl Gustaf are all produced primarily in Europe), SPGs, 5.56mm ammunition, etc. It is also a decent source for newly produced Soviet-style kit in e.g. Bulgaria and Romania. From what I've seen, it's more a question of will, more than anything else. Certain items (tanks and jet fighters for instance) will be harder to ramp up, but overall I think Europe has a decent production capacity for ammunition, if it wants to use it. Russia has been burning up their stockpiles, so their expenditure will necessarily go down as they have to rely on newly produced stuff. I think Europe can quite easily keep up with Russian production rates for most types of ammunition.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 09:03
|
|
|
Dick Ripple posted:My original statement was Russia will not use the raid as a pretext to further mass mobilize, because that would anger those that Putins power base depends on, and instead continue to focus 'recruitment' efforts outside ethnically Russian regions. This is a guess, because unfortunately no one in the Kremlin has stated that this is what they are or will be doing. Ethnically Russian regions provided the most mobilized, there is no evidence that the government is focused on minorities out of order or out of fear of angering Russians (if anything, it is people in the Caucasus republics that actively react to federal enforcement - they did during Covid and they did during mobilization) Of course Kremlin is not going to order another 300 000 to respond to a brief raid of 70 guys of humvees. It is an issue of rational response, not concerns about internal mood or ethnic tensions. There are enough regular, non-mobilized conscripts from draft (and thousands of Rosguard troops) to do duties inside the country.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 09:37
|
|
|
Storkrasch posted:What is that based on? Aside from political will to throw money at the problem it also depends on practical constraints like factory setup and supply chains. A factory and supply chain set up to for economic efficiency is not necessarily able to cope with expanded production beyond peacetime rates if the production line, factory layout and storage etc is not explicitly made for spare capacity and/or rapid expansion to wartime rates. Since the Soviet union fell western Europe has in general been keen on dismantling such spare capacity as a part of the peace dividend. If the factories of Russia and its ammo suppliers has a better spare capacity in their plants than those in Europe then Europe will be even slower to ramp up production in comparison, possibly too slow, even if their output after a couple of years time will be really high. Zudgemud fucked around with this message at 10:05 on May 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 10:02
|
|
|
Zudgemud posted:Aside from political will to throw money at the problem it also depends on practical constraints like factory setup and supply chains. A factory and supply chain set up to for economic efficiency is not necessarily able to cope with expanded production beyond peacetime rates if the production line, factory layout and storage etc is not explicitly made for spare capacity and/or rapid expansion to wartime rates. Since the Soviet union fell western Europe has in general been keen on dismantling such spare capacity as a part of the peace dividend. If the factories of Russia and its ammo suppliers has a better spare capacity in their plants than those in Europe then Europe will be even slower to ramp up production in comparison, possibly too slow, even if their output after a couple of years time will be really high. Right, but the EU alone (not counting the UK or Turkey) produces something like 20% of world arms exports. Maybe they produce one 155mm shell every five years and sell it for $30 billion, but I'd think it's more likely that there probably is substantial capacity for production. Even if Trump steps in with dictatorial powers in a year and a half, and also decides to dedicate all his political power to gutting American arms exports, Europe could sustain a whole lot. That's not counting Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Egypt, Australia and loads of other countries with arms industries and a willingness to ship arms to Ukraine in exchange for money. The EU is aiming at producing one million 155mm shells a year within 12 months, which would let Ukraine fire thousands of shells per day, indefinitely, from only the EU, without affecting stockpiles. It's not going to mean that the war is over tomorrow, but it's hardly "lol the eu can't even arm itself". poor waif fucked around with this message at 11:26 on May 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 10:53
|
|
|
RVC claim they are back in Russia already. There are videos, but impossible to tell if they are from today.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 10:56
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 18:40 |
|
|
Storkrasch posted:Maybe they produce one 155mm shell every five years and sell it for $30 billion, Broke: Biden mint the Platinum Coin Woke: Von der Leyen produce the Platinum Shell (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2023 11:35
|
|
