Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Gumball Gumption
Jan 7, 2012

Main Paineframe posted:

Is it actually at historic levels? I didn't see that in the article. I'm not finding any stats on subway track pushings, but I'm also not finding any reporting about a rash of NYC track-pushings. I just see one other one in January, someone arrested in NYC for a track-pushing in Baltimore, and a bunch of articles complaining about homeless people hanging out on or near the tracks.

I'm inclined to be wary here, because our perceptions of extremely rare problems like this are very heavily influenced by media coverage. And not only does the NYC media have an outsized presence in our national media industry, but it also absolutely loving loves crime reporting that portrays public spaces as far more unsafe than they actually are.

And this story clearly falls right into that category. Just look at that tweet. It frames the attack as "embod[ying] New Yorkers' persistent fear of such violence underground" - implying not only that New Yorkers are widely terrified of subway attackers, but also that they're right to be so afraid.

On top of that, even though that NYT story is about subway shovings in general, it's noticeably selective about the cases it chooses. They chose to focus exclusively on cases of women being pushed by non-white homeless men. There aren't even any mentions of cases of men being pushed by homeless men, let alone cases where men got into fights that ended up with one of them on the tracks.

It almost looks to me like the NYT (along with right-wing media like the NY Post) is encouraging readers to fear homeless people on the subway. It's portraying them as dangerous and prone to sudden unprovoked assaults on the vulnerable, and portraying the subway as a dangerous place where New Yorkers ought to live in constant fear of random attacks. And in my opinion, that's a really loving irresponsible thing to be doing less than a month after non-white homeless man Jordan Neely was murdered on the subway for being loud and unruly.

There seems to be no proof it's at historical levels and the closest thing we can look at, crime rates in the subway system, are not at their historical highs of the 70's and 80's. Violent crime on the subway system also is not near any of it's historical highs. If we isolate it down to just murders than you did see a real jump in 22 with I believe 7 but I can't find a lot of historical data on specifically subway murders during the high point of NYC crime.

I think a sane country would look at this problem and make it harder to be pushed into the subway hole. Instead we're doing this.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Uncle Boogeyman posted:

As I mentioned earlier, the trains in Boston are nowhere near reliable enough to commit murder by pushing someone in front of them.

They will, however, drag you to a horrible death if you get caught in the door by accident.

A few years ago a similar incident was only prevented by a passenger pulling the emergency brake...

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013
Probation
Can't post for 18 hours!
Crossposting from SAL:

Enfys posted:

NOAA is trying to get this area designated as a marine sanctuary to protect it, and public comments are allowed (and encouraged) in case anyone wants to get involved in some small way.

quote:

You have through June 2, 2023, to add your voice on the proposed Pacific Remote Islands National Marine Sanctuary!

U.S. waters surrounding Kingman Reef and Palmyra Atoll are home to some of the most pristine marine ecosystems on Earth and the region was recently proposed to become a national marine sanctuary. As E/V Nautilus explores the deep sea and ancient seamounts within the proposed sanctuary area, our audiences have the unique opportunity to get involved and share their comments with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on the proposed Pacific Remote Islands National Marine Sanctuary.

While recent expeditions have increased our baseline knowledge of the Pacific Remote Islands Region, large areas remain completely unexplored. Ocean Exploration Trust aims to provide a rich foundation of publicly-accessible data to enable follow-on exploration, research, and management activities. Exploration of the deep sea here is urgently needed to address management and science needs, including a better understanding of the natural and cultural resources, biogeographic patterns of species distributions, and the geological context of the region.



About The Proposal

In April, NOAA launched the designation process to consider a new sanctuary in waters around the U.S. Pacific Remote Islands, which include Palmyra, Kingman, Baker, Howland, Jarvis, Johnston, and Wake. The proposed national marine sanctuary would include the marine areas within the existing Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument, as well as those currently unprotected submerged lands and waters to the full extent of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, an area totaling about 770,000 square miles.

The atolls, shoals, seamounts, banks, and reefs surrounding the U.S. Pacific Remote Islands are home to some of the most diverse and remarkable tropical marine ecosystems on the planet, but are becoming increasingly vulnerable to impacts from climate change, invasive species, and marine debris.

The proposed sanctuary would not only protect a rich and unique marine biodiversity, but also honor the ancestral, historical, and cultural connections of this remote region. Native Hawaiian, Samoan, Chamorro, Carolinian, and many other Pacific Island Indigenous Peoples, have voyaged across this vast expanse of the Central and Western Pacific Ocean over thousands of years.

How to Get Involved

Public input is a key part of the national marine sanctuary designation process. The public is invited to comment on the proposed sanctuary designation through June 2, 2023, through the Federal eRulemaking Portal, https://www.regulations.gov by searching for docket number NOAA-NOS-2023-0052, and click the "Comment Now!" icon.

The process to designate a new sanctuary is highly public and participatory, with steps including scoping and public input, sanctuary proposal development with environmental impact statements and draft management plan development, further public review, and finally NOAA decision on designation based on the process which will outline protections and regulations for Congressional review.

Through this public comment, NOAA will gather input on the proposed Sanctuary as described in the Notice of Intent published in the Federal Register, including on boundaries, compatible uses, threats, science, and education initiatives, among others. Public comments that are received will assist the agency with drafting designation documents, including formulating potential alternatives and an environmental impact statement.

NOAA will consider and respond to novel or substantive comments on this matter, so it's worth taking the time to do so.

Federal Register notice:
https://www.federalregister.gov/doc...atement-for-the

There have also been a number of public meetings on the subject, with a couple virtual ones open for registration toward the bottom of this page:
https://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/pacific-remote-islands/

Direct link to the commenting interface (click the blue "comment" button):
https://www.regulations.gov/document/NOAA-NOS-2023-0052-0001

SpeakSlow
May 17, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Pardon the rewind, and I have only skimmed the article, but did Rhodes name his kids after pickup trucks?

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Discendo Vox posted:

Crossposting from SAL:



NOAA will consider and respond to novel or substantive comments on this matter, so it's worth taking the time to do so.

Federal Register notice:
https://www.federalregister.gov/doc...atement-for-the

There have also been a number of public meetings on the subject, with a couple virtual ones open for registration toward the bottom of this page:
https://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/pacific-remote-islands/

Direct link to the commenting interface (click the blue "comment" button):
https://www.regulations.gov/document/NOAA-NOS-2023-0052-0001

Most people haven’t been to remote islands in the Pacific. What I would say is that there is a remarkable difference between protected and unprotected. It’s been twenty years since I’ve seen places like these. The inhabited islands I went to had visible coral bleaching even then. Even damaged they were remarkable.

Undamaged they are places God will not forgive us for failing to protect.

VorpalBunny
May 1, 2009

Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog
Did Lauren Boebert really talk at a House panel about birth control, and said she couldn't afford birth control so she went ahead and had another kid?

Yes, she did.
https://people.com/lauren-boebert-having-kid-cheaper-birth-control-aoc-responds-7503362

I also heard something heartbreaking about a 911 tape where her son called the cops on his father? And Boebert told the cops he was lying?

Yes, she did.
https://krdo.com/news/2023/05/25/he-doesnt-need-help-rep-lauren-boebert-tells-deputies-not-to-come-after-son-calls-911-for-help/

It is enraging these dipshits keep putting these kids in harms way, saying these things in public and dismissing their very real concerns. I hope these kids make it out of their childhood ok.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



She's also a 30 something grandma who is in the middle of a divorce with some rumors swirling around of an affair with some maga country star dude.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
in case any of you are wondering what rahm emanual is up to as our ambassador to japan, rest assured he's using his time wisely

quote:

Rahm Emanuel, the US Ambassador to Japan, took the unusual step of getting involved to make the case for the US, as a counterbalance to the Sunak effort. The former mayor of Chicago, who also worked in the White House and in investment banking, met with Son and his lieutenants more than a dozen times, according to the people. Emanuel repeatedly relayed the view that Arm would be “penalized, not rewarded” for a joint listing on LSE.

He worked with [Nasdaq Inc. Chief Executive Officer Adena] Friedman and Nasdaq staff on research to show that dual-listed stocks tend to underperform their peers over time. The report analyzed a group of more than 550 companies with valuations between $10 billion and $50 billion, drawing comparisons between stocks listed solely in the US, US ADRs with a foreign listing and US ADRs with a London listing. It concluded that stocks listed only in the US had 2.5 times greater trading volumes, about three times more liquidity and two times higher median price-to-equity valuation.

“US-listed peers have tighter spreads, higher valuation and greater liquidity than US American Depository Receipts with a foreign listing,” read the report produced for SoftBank, which was reviewed by Bloomberg. Plus, “there are additional costs to consider,” such as producing financial statements under US and UK standards, stated the document.

somehow putting together pitchdecks for the listing of private companies is even more craven and mercenary than i had expected

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



cr0y posted:

She's also a 30 something grandma who is in the middle of a divorce with some rumors swirling around of an affair with some maga country star dude.

Don't worry, if/when this gets published, she'll be sure to complain incessantly about that being her private life. Hypocrisy seems to be a requirement to be a politician these days.

Nameless Pete
May 8, 2007

Get a load of those...

Uncle Boogeyman posted:

As I mentioned earlier, the trains in Boston are nowhere near reliable enough to commit murder by pushing someone in front of them.

They will, however, drag you to a horrible death if you get caught in the door by accident.

My cousin got dragged for two blocks by a San Francisco MUNI train that closed its doors on his front sweatshirt pocket. He now has asymmetrical butt cheeks from where the pavement ground off part of his rear end.

Liquid Communism
Mar 9, 2004

коммунизм хранится в яичках

small butter posted:

It's actually way more insidious than any polling can show you.

For example, even though I can afford it, I was thinking about not going to a follow-up with my ENT because it would cost like $300. It should not even be a consideration - the ENT thought I should follow up, so I should. Everyone is affected by the fact that we have deductibles, copays, etc., and obviously those without any healthcare have it the worst.

There's also how much insurance companies are practicing medicine without a license. It's common statistically, and anecdotally hit me recently with my insurer deciding not to cover the medication my doctor feels is correct due to not wanting to pay for something that isn't generic.

I make good money, but can't exactly swing $400 a month out of pocket, so have to deal with less effective medication with worse side effects.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Nameless Pete posted:

My cousin got dragged for two blocks by a San Francisco MUNI train that closed its doors on his front sweatshirt pocket. He now has asymmetrical butt cheeks from where the pavement ground off part of his rear end.

On the other hand, that's some really durable stitching for a sweatshirt pocket

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Liquid Communism posted:

There's also how much insurance companies are practicing medicine without a license. It's common statistically, and anecdotally hit me recently with my insurer deciding not to cover the medication my doctor feels is correct due to not wanting to pay for something that isn't generic.

I make good money, but can't exactly swing $400 a month out of pocket, so have to deal with less effective medication with worse side effects.

Congress is starting to get involved with this, at least. I think we've seen a few other posts here, but hopefully it will go somewhere.

Liquid Communism
Mar 9, 2004

коммунизм хранится в яичках

Shooting Blanks posted:

Congress is starting to get involved with this, at least. I think we've seen a few other posts here, but hopefully it will go somewhere.

God, I hope so, I'm pretty sure it'd be easy to bust out the actuarial tables and determine just how many person-centuries insurance companies burn off people's lives a year to make their insane profits.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Neo Rasa posted:

Yeah it pisses me off because it should be news that this happened, but the idea that there's a people getting shoved in front of trains wave in NYC or that "New Yorkers" in general are terrified of the subway is some real horseshit.

And this is why, the weather's getting nicer so, sorry folks, you have to see more homeless people around later into the evening. And you'll see this little extra encouragement in the news every year about NYC as we go from spring to summer.

The LA Metro isn't perfect, but every single article about it and it's expansion is full of commenters who are all scared white people who don't ride the trains talking about the unwashed hordes and filth they put up with the 1 time they rode the train 3 years ago and asking why we don't have the LAPD have an armed firing squad at every station to execute the indigent.

The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

We have the PBS here, so at least it's the government deciding if a given drug is worth it.
(If a drug is on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme list then the end-user pays maximum $20 per refill, any difference between $20 and the actual-price is paid from the PBS. In return they use this purchasing power to negotiate with pharma companies about whether their product will be on the PBS and how much they have to reduce the price by in order for it to be added)

pencilhands
Aug 20, 2022

Willa Rogers posted:

So an ACA exchange like every other state? I'm trying to suss out what makes it more left-leaning than other states, as intimated by the post to which I was replying. Maybe I misunderstood that post.

I don’t know if this is different than other states, but in mass up to like $35-40k in income you can buy into the state health insurance which is maybe a couple hundo a month in premiums at the highest tier and then you have no other costs (no deductible, no copays, nothing)except like $4 for prescriptions which caps at a few hundred bucks a year.

Much of the state is unlivable at that income level but it’s something I guess.

pencilhands fucked around with this message at 08:34 on May 26, 2023

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Yeah, there are places that eliminate the coinsurance, deductibles, premiums, etc. But, most single-payer systems have some cost-sharing.

For example, here's the current cost-sharing info for Medicare Part B:

Premium: $164.90
Deductible: $226
Co-Pays: Generally none, but there are a few very specific circumstances.
Co-Insurance: 20% of cost after meeting deductible as co-insurance.
Prescription Drugs: Not included in part B and costs are variable depending on your Medicare Part D plan, type of drug, and pharmacy.

Other:

- Premium is based partially on your income, so higher-income individuals will pay a higher Medicare premium.

- Low-income Medicare beneficiaries can become "dual eligible" and qualify for both Medicaid and Medicare. In this scenario, Medicaid will pay for your Medicare premiums and co-insurance costs.

https://www.medicare.gov/basics/get-started-with-medicare/medicare-basics/what-does-medicare-cost

Here's some for France's national health insurance plan (which generally has the lowest cost-sharing in healthcare among major countries)

Premium: None
Deductible: None
Co-Pays: Minimum 1 euro + co-insurance.
Co-Insurance: 20% for inpatient stays, 30% for outpatient doctor and dentist visits.
Prescription Drugs: Variable rate for drugs, but a minimum of 15% co-insurance for drugs on the national formulary list and 100% coinsurance for drugs not covered under the national formulary list.

Other:

- There are means-tested exemptions to coinsurance based on income. Roughly 9% of France qualifies for the coinsurance exemption.

- 95% of French citizens have supplemental private insurance that covers the co-insurance of the national healthcare plan and elective procedures not covered by the national healthcare plan.

https://www.commonwealthfund.org/international-health-policy-center/countries/france

Deductibles are a McKinsey invention stemming from the late 80s iirc. In any proper society, they should be banned.

Coinsurance and copays in a sane nation like France are actually pretty reasonable. I know ppl that had major medical issues there as tourist's visiting there and they managed to pay like 85 bucks for everything

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

A lot of things like this are explicable by suicide cluster mechanics. Dramatic violent event hits the news, gets covered, inspires copycats.

One good way to stop school shootings would probably be to stop news coverage of school shootings.

Nyc has 2.4 million people using the subway everyday. Posts yelling about the homeless (which with city halls policies shutting down shelters is the only plavlce they can exist) is part of a misinformation campaign to justify our abhorrent treatment of them.

karthun
Nov 16, 2006

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Shageletic posted:

Deductibles are a McKinsey invention stemming from the late 80s iirc. In any proper society, they should be banned.

Coinsurance and copays in a sane nation like France are actually pretty reasonable. I know ppl that had major medical issues there as tourist's visiting there and they managed to pay like 85 bucks for everything

Medicare had a deductible when it was created in 1965.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

karthun posted:

Medicare had a deductible when it was created in 1965.

Shot that off the hip too quick. I was thinking of the RAND study that today is still used to justify deductibles despite well grounded cries about its methods and result

https://www.researchgate.net/public...ealth_Insurance

Deductibles were introduced by Blue Cross in the 1950s and we have more than a half century of studies showing it leads to less health visits and worse health outcomes. And we had a golden moment in the late seventies where politics were aligning on veering it away before the aforementioned RAND study, then the Healthcare industry, and conservative politicos on both aisles batted it down

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Changing the subject briefly:

That guy who won $5MM from Mike Lindell over the voting data has a short writeup in Politico about what he found.

It's short, sweet, and a nice reminder that once in awhile, good things do happen.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
If this is accurate, then we might escape the debt limit fiasco with just about the best possible deal. The House Freedom Caucus and Progressive Caucus may have actually somehow saved us from the worst version. The House Freedom caucus has pledged to not support any deal with fewer cuts than the House bill they already passed. They have 35 votes. The House Progressive caucus has about 101 votes and said they would not support a deal with work requirements for Medicaid or major spending cuts.

The White House said it would only agree to a deal that at least 100 House Democrats (about 50% of the caucus) would support.

As a result, McCarthy is trying to thread the needle on something that would let him declare victory, but also either get 100% of Republicans on board or be something that a chunk of the progressive caucus would vote for.

I actually find it really hard to believe that this is the final outcome, so I am just assuming that this will get tanked by the end of today and will be pleasantly surprised if it does not.

In a sane world, none of this should be happening over the debt limit and would be happening during budget negotiations. But, if they do adopt the provision that makes it so they don't have to do any budget negotiations with Republicans for FY24 or FY25, then they prevent the Republicans from coming back and trying another hostage situation with a government shutdown and Biden can keep his rhetorical pledge that "we negotiated over the budget and not the credit of the U.S."

The highlights:

- Extends the debt ceiling into 2025.

- Military and veteran's spending will go through at the level requested by Biden's budget (no cuts, but about 20% lower than Republicans wanted to raise it).

- All other spending will be frozen for 1 year, but at FY23 levels (which is basically no cuts) and then increase by only 1% for 1 year.

- They will cut $10 billion from the $80 billion in additional IRS funding that was authorized by the IRA and use that $10 billion to make up the funds to other discretionary spending that was supposed to rise by more than 1% in FY25.

- No work requirements for Medicaid.

- Rescind unused Covid money and count that towards deficit reduction/spending cuts.

- Locks in these changes for the FY24 and FY25 budget, so there are no more budget negotiations with Republicans until after the 2024 election.

That means that there is effectively only $10 billion in cut spending (and it is all coming from a one-time increase in spending anyway and not the normal budget) over 2 years. It's not clear where the $10 billion in IRS funding would come from or what impact it would have. They would likely end up cutting down the number of new permanent customer service jobs.

Needless to say, the House Freedom Caucus thinks going from 10-year caps and $3.5 trillion in cut spending to 1-year cap + 1-year increase of 1% and $10 billion in cut spending is not acceptable.

quote:

As negotiators inched closer to a deal, hard-right Republicans on Thursday were becoming increasingly anxious that Mr. McCarthy would sign off on a compromise they viewed as insufficiently conservative. Several right-wing Republicans have already vowed to oppose any compromise that retreats from cuts that were part of their debt-limit bill.

“Republicans should not cut a bad deal,” Representative Chip Roy of Texas, an influential conservative, wrote on Twitter on Thursday morning, shortly after telling a local radio station that he was “going to have to go have some blunt conversations with my colleagues and the leadership team” because he did not like “the direction they are headed.”

Representative Ralph Norman, Republican of South Carolina, said he was reserving judgment on how he would vote on a compromise until he saw the bill, but added: “What I’ve seen now is not good.”


Major Undecided Issues:

- Still negotiating about work requirements for SNAP and additional work requirements for TANF. House Dems and White House are very against it for SNAP, but willing to do something on TANF because TANF already has work requirements and hasn't received new funding since 1996, so it is essentially just "tightening up" existing work requirements for a mostly abandoned program. Republicans want some work requirements for SNAP if they are giving up on work requirements for Medicaid.

- Specific details of permitting reform: Permitting reform would apply to both green energy projects and oil and gas projects. It would ease requirements and include "maximum time limits" that the federal government could spend holding or reviewing permits before having to make a decision. Which specific building requirements, how long the time limits, and how to enforce the time limits are still undecided.

https://twitter.com/jimtankersley/status/1661878466705276928

quote:

White House and G.O.P. Close In on Deal to Raise Debt Limit and Cut Spending

The details were not finalized, but negotiators were discussing a compromise that would allow Republicans to point to spending reductions and Democrats to say they had prevented large cuts.

Top White House officials and Republican lawmakers were closing in Thursday on a deal that would raise the debt limit for two years while imposing strict caps on discretionary spending not related to the military or veterans for the same period. Officials were racing to cement an agreement in time to avert a federal default that is projected in just one week.

The deal taking shape would allow Republicans to say that they were reducing some federal spending — even as spending on the military and veterans’ programs would continue to grow — and allow Democrats to say they had spared most domestic programs from significant cuts.

Negotiators from both sides were talking into the evening and beginning to draft legislative text, though some details remained in flux.

“We’ve been talking to the White House all day, we’ve been going back and forth, and it’s not easy,” Speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters as he left the Capitol on Thursday evening, declining to divulge what was under discussion. “It takes a while to make it happen, and we are working hard to make it happen.”

The compromise, if it can be agreed upon and enacted, would raise the government’s borrowing limit for two years, past the 2024 election, according to three people familiar with it who insisted on anonymity to discuss a plan that was still being hammered out.

The United States hit the legal limit, currently $31.4 trillion, in January and has been relying on accounting measures to avoid defaulting since then. The Treasury Department has projected it will exhaust its ability to pay bills on time as early as June 1.

In exchange for lifting the debt limit, the deal would meet Republicans’ demand to cut some federal spending, albeit with the help of accounting maneuvers that would give both sides political cover for an agreement likely to be unpopular with large swaths of their base voters.

It would impose caps on discretionary spending for two years, though those caps would apply differently to spending on the military than to nondefense discretionary spending. Spending on the military would grow next year, as would spending on some veterans’ care that falls under nondefense discretionary spending. The rest of nondefense discretionary spending would fall slightly — or roughly stay flat — compared with this year’s levels.

The deal would also roll back $10 billion of the $80 billion Congress approved last year for an I.R.S. crackdown on high earners and corporations that evade taxes, though that provision was still under discussion. Democrats have championed the initiative, and nonpartisan scorekeepers have said the funding would reduce the budget deficit by helping the government collect more of the tax revenue it is owed. But Republicans have denounced it, claiming falsely that the money would be used to fund an army of auditors to go after working people.

“The president and his negotiating team are fighting hard for his agenda, including for I.R.S. funding so it can provide better customer service to taxpayers and crack down on wealthy tax cheats,” a White House spokesman, Michael Kikukawa, said in an email on Thursday in response to a question about the provision.

As the deal stood on Thursday, the I.R.S. money would essentially shift to nondefense discretionary spending, allowing Democrats to avoid further cuts in programs like education and environmental protection, according to people familiar with the pending agreement.

The plan had yet to be finalized, and the bargainers continued to haggle over crucial details that could make or break any deal.

“Nothing is done until you actually have a complete deal,” said Representative Patrick T. McHenry of North Carolina, one of the lead G.O.P. negotiators, who also declined to discuss the specifics of the negotiations. “Nothing’s resolved.”

The cuts contained in the package were all but certain to be too modest to win the votes of hard-line fiscal conservatives in the House. Liberal groups were already complaining on Thursday about the reported deal to reduce the I.R.S. funding increase.

But people familiar with the developing deal said that negotiators had agreed to fund military and veterans’ programs at the levels envisioned by President Biden in his budget for next year. They would reduce nondefense discretionary spending below this year’s levels — but much of that cut would be covered by the shift in the I.R.S. funding and other budgetary maneuvers. White House officials have contended those shifts would functionally make nondefense discretionary spending the same next year as it was this year.

All discretionary spending would then grow at 1 percent in 2025, after which the caps would lift.

Mr. McCarthy had nodded on Thursday to the idea that a compromise to avert a default would most likely draw detractors from both parties.

“I don’t think everybody is going to be happy at the end of the day,” he said. “That’s not how this system works.”

Another provision of the deal seeks to avert a government shutdown later in the year, and would attempt to take away Republicans’ ability to seek deeper cuts to government programs and agencies through the appropriations process later in the year.

The exact details on how such a measure would work remained unclear on Thursday evening. But it was based on a penalty of sorts, which would adjust the spending caps in the event that Congress failed to pass all 12 stand-alone spending bills that fund the government by the end of the calendar year.

Negotiators were still at loggerheads over work requirements for social safety net programs and a permitting overhaul for domestic energy and gas projects.

“We have legislative work to do, policy work to do,” Mr. McHenry said. “The details of all that stuff really are consequential to us being able to get this thing through.”

As negotiators inched closer to a deal, hard-right Republicans on Thursday were becoming increasingly anxious that Mr. McCarthy would sign off on a compromise they viewed as insufficiently conservative. Several right-wing Republicans have already vowed to oppose any compromise that retreats from cuts that were part of their debt-limit bill.

“Republicans should not cut a bad deal,” Representative Chip Roy of Texas, an influential conservative, wrote on Twitter on Thursday morning, shortly after telling a local radio station that he was “going to have to go have some blunt conversations with my colleagues and the leadership team” because he did not like “the direction they are headed.”

Representative Ralph Norman, Republican of South Carolina, said he was reserving judgment on how he would vote on a compromise until he saw the bill, but added: “What I’ve seen now is not good.”

Former President Donald J. Trump, who has said Republicans should force a default if they do not get what they want in the negotiations, also was weighing in. Mr. McCarthy told reporters he had spoken with Mr. Trump briefly about the negotiations — “it came up just for a second,” the speaker said. “He was talking about, ‘Make sure you get a good agreement.’”

After playing a tee shot on his golf course outside Washington, Mr. Trump approached a reporter for The New York Times, iPhone in hand, and showed a call with Mr. McCarthy.

“It’s going to be an interesting thing — it’s not going to be that easy,” said Mr. Trump, who described his call with the speaker as “a little, quick talk.”

“They’ve spent three years wasting money on nonsense,” he added, saying, “Republicans don’t want to see that, so I understand where they’re at.”

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:22 on May 26, 2023

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Are the "strict spending caps" even relevant at all? Like... isn't that just preemptive budget negotiation? No spending was going to pass without McCarthy putting it on the floor anyway. It really feels like the $10 billion in IRS funding is the entire concession, with the rest just a fig leaf for McCarthy to claim he got real cuts.

Are there automatic increases that were already legislated for '24-'25 that are now not going to happen? If so, how much money does that represent?

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Sounds like enough megadonors got through to McCarthy finally. I'd also be willing to believe that there are enough moderate Republicans pissed at the Freedom Caucus for holding the whole process hostage that they're willing to suck it up for a deal that like less - as long as it means a deal is done.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Shooting Blanks posted:

Congress is starting to get involved with this, at least. I think we've seen a few other posts here, but hopefully it will go somewhere.

I'm delighted to hear that Congress is starting to take action against insurance denials-by-algorithm; I haven't heard of anything up to now, and the ProPublica piece & a follow-up only mention a congressional hearing & a DoL official expressing "concern."

But I haven't heard of any legislation introduced at the federal level to rein in private insurers; do you know of any?

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
If that is the final deal I have to imagine that McCarthy's speakership is over.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Shooting Blanks posted:

Sounds like enough megadonors got through to McCarthy finally. I'd also be willing to believe that there are enough moderate Republicans pissed at the Freedom Caucus for holding the whole process hostage that they're willing to suck it up for a deal that like less - as long as it means a deal is done.

I don't know.

Conservatives are already flipping out over it.

https://twitter.com/russvought/status/1662060353348411394
https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1661911052374663170

Mellow Seas posted:

Are the "strict spending caps" even relevant at all? Like... isn't that just preemptive budget negotiation? No spending was going to pass without McCarthy putting it on the floor anyway. It really feels like the $10 billion in IRS funding is the entire concession, with the rest just a fig leaf for McCarthy to claim he got real cuts.

Are there automatic increases that were already legislated for '24-'25 that are now not going to happen? If so, how much money does that represent?

Pretty much, which is exactly why I am not super optimistic that this survives. This is basically what a normal budget negotiation would look like where the Republicans controlled one House of Congress, but only got some minor concessions as part of the deal.

Krugman pretty much sums up the fundamental issue:

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1662095880961286149

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:28 on May 26, 2023

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Willa Rogers posted:

I'm delighted to hear that Congress is starting to take action against insurance denials-by-algorithm; I haven't heard of anything up to now, and the ProPublica piece & a follow-up only mention a congressional hearing & a DoL official expressing "concern."

But I haven't heard of any legislation introduced at the federal level to rein in private insurers; do you know of any?

No legislation as of yet - but private insurers denying people healthcare seems like it would have pretty broad bipartisan support. Mom/Grandma/Kids getting denied necessary treatment by algorithm is a pretty surefire way to piss off everyone.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Shageletic posted:

Deductibles are a McKinsey invention stemming from the late 80s iirc. In any proper society, they should be banned.

Coinsurance and copays in a sane nation like France are actually pretty reasonable. I know ppl that had major medical issues there as tourist's visiting there and they managed to pay like 85 bucks for everything

Leon also didn't mention that Part A Medicare covers hospitalization (and subsequent rehab, in most cases) in the U.S. with absolutely no costs for up to 90 days per year, and there's no premium to carry.

Regulatory capture & donor-driven politics have allowed Medicare pricing to recipients to climb over the past couple decades--especially while incentivizing & subsidizing "Medicare" "Advantage" at insurers' behest--but it's hands-down still a bargain compare to any employer-provided or ACA exchange insurance.

I pay a total of around $3200/year (the standard for everyone + a gap plan) and aside from that puny deductible everything is 100 percent covered for any provider for any state in the country who accepts Medicare (about 98 percent of them, including places like Mayo & MD Anderson).

I doubt there's a comparable policy for comparable prices for anyone under 65.

Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

Mellow Seas posted:

If that is the final deal I have to imagine that McCarthy's speakership is over.

:pray:

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005


Who would you rather see as speaker? McCarthy seems pretty mild for a GOP leader these days.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Willa Rogers posted:

Leon also didn't mention that Part A Medicare covers hospitalization (and subsequent rehab, in most cases) in the U.S. with absolutely no costs for up to 90 days per year, and there's no premium to carry.

Regulatory capture & donor-driven politics have allowed Medicare pricing to recipients to climb over the past couple decades--especially while incentivizing & subsidizing "Medicare" "Advantage" at insurers' behest--but it's hands-down still a bargain compare to any employer-provided or ACA exchange insurance.

I pay a total of around $3200/year (the standard for everyone + a gap plan) and aside from that puny deductible everything is 100 percent covered for any provider for any state in the country who accepts Medicare (about 98 percent of them, including places like Mayo & MD Anderson).

I doubt there's a comparable policy for comparable prices for anyone under 65.

Part A does have a premium, but you get exempt from it if you have 10 years of employment where you pay at least $X in FICA taxes.

There are definitely better plans than Medicare out there for people, they are just very rare.

Medicaid is explicitly better than Medicare from a cost-sharing perspective. Tricare also has lower cost-sharing requirements than Medicare. There are some very generous employer Cadillac plans, but they are generally reserved for highly compensated/non-profit/local government/collective bargaining agreement positions. When I worked for a major union, I had a healthcare plan with a $250 deductible and my premium was only $41 per month. If you worked there for 30 years, then you could keep your healthcare benefits after you retire and they would cover everything that Medicare didn't.

So, not accurate to say better than "any" other plan. But, for the average person, it is usually going to be better than plans you have access to under 65.

And many other countries have similar single-payer systems with lower cost-sharing than Medicare as well. But, that is sort of a different scope.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Willa Rogers posted:

Who would you rather see as speaker? McCarthy seems pretty mild for a GOP leader these days.

:chaostrump:

Barrel Cactaur
Oct 6, 2021

Gumball Gumption posted:

There seems to be no proof it's at historical levels and the closest thing we can look at, crime rates in the subway system, are not at their historical highs of the 70's and 80's. Violent crime on the subway system also is not near any of it's historical highs. If we isolate it down to just murders than you did see a real jump in 22 with I believe 7 but I can't find a lot of historical data on specifically subway murders during the high point of NYC crime.

I think a sane country would look at this problem and make it harder to be pushed into the subway hole. Instead we're doing this.

subway shoving is only a problem because legacy mass transit systems have been extremely slow to install modern automated or semi automated gate and barrier systems to prevent riders from entering the hazardous areas. Open platforms are a literal deathtrap.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Willa Rogers posted:

Who would you rather see as speaker? McCarthy seems pretty mild for a GOP leader these days.
Whoever the speaker is, they're going to be answering to the same people in the Freedom Caucus. And if the debt ceiling is taken off the table and they've already struck a budget deal for '24 and '25 then there's not much the next speaker can really do to gently caress stuff up, right? It's not like any Republican legislation is passing.

Meanwhile you get "Republicans in disarray" narratives, which aren't likely to help them in '24, and if they don't have any other candidate for speaker who can half-please both factions like McCarthy kind of did, then who knows what happens.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Part A does have a premium, but you get exempt from it if you have 10 years of employment where you pay at least $X amount in FICA taxes.

There are definitely better plans than Medicare out there for people, they are just very rare.

Medicaid is explicitly better than Medicare from a cost-sharing perspective. Tricare also has lower cost-sharing requirements than Medicare. There are some very generous employer Cadillac plans, but they are generally reserved for highly compensated/non-profit/local government/collective bargaining agreement positions. When I worked for a major union, I had a healthcare plan with a $250 deductible and my premium was only $41 per month. If you worked there for 30 years, then you could keep your healthcare benefits after you retire and they would cover everything that Medicare didn't.

So, not accurate to say better than "any" other plan. But, for the average person, it is usually going to be better than plans you have access to under 65.

And many other countries have similar single-payer systems with lower cost-sharing than Medicare as well. But, that is sort of a different scope.

Medicaid is now almost all managed care that buckets you into a narrow network. It's also useless for care outside the coverage area (usually county lines) unless it's emergency care. You cannot simply call up a specialist & see them directly, as you can under Medicare.

I had a friend who was diagnosed with multiple myeloma & had to fight to see specialists outside of her Medicaid managed plan. She was finally able to get Medicare (after being on disability for a year while in her 50s) and only then was she able to get a stem-cell transplant and other top-notch treatment.

Medicare as secondary insurer for a retiree plan is virtually the same as comprehensive Medicare coverage with the employer subsidizing the premiums, but now that most public-sector unions are bucketing retirees into "Advantage" plans (which, granted, are better than the "Advantage" plans for individuals, yet still not as good as traditional Medicare) those secondary-insurer plans for retirees are disappearing.

Last I heard about Tricare was that recipients outside of those using the V.A. were also being bucketed into managed-care plans, but I'm not as up to date on that as other social programs; maybe some vets could weigh in.

Gumball Gumption
Jan 7, 2012

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Why are New Yorkers suddenly pushing people into the subway tracks at historic levels in the past year?

This particular person who shoved her was a homeless man and likely mentally ill, but there have been almost a dozen other cases of this happening and most of them were not mentally ill or homeless.

This is America. You're supposed to use guns for your senseless public violence (there was a mass shooting in the NYC subway not too long ago, so I guess they have that covered).

And why aren't any other cities throwing people onto the tracks besides New York?

A quick google says that nobody has been killed by being pushed into the subway by another person in Boston, LA, or Atlanta in the last year.

It's still less than a dozen people, but going from 0 for decades to multiple in a year (and it not happening anywhere else in the country) is weird.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1661780448706535424

Ok but seriously why did you add a bunch of wrong data to this that isn't even in the article? You can find NYC subway attacks going back decades. There was a push in Boston a few months ago. It's happened in the past year in Chicago. Portland had a case last year where a woman pushed a 3 year old into tracks.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Gumball Gumption posted:

Ok but seriously why did you add a bunch of wrong data to this that isn't even in the article? You can find NYC subway attacks going back decades. There was a push in Boston a few months ago. It's happened in the past year in Chicago. Portland had a case last year where a woman pushed a 3 year old into tracks.

I can't find anyone actually being injured/killed in Boston by being pushed into a train in the last year via google. What case are you using?

The only one I can find in the past year is one with no injuries.

quote:

In the first incident, Perry-Marshall, a 23-year-old, is suspected of kicking a person into the train pit at State Street Station about 2 p.m., according to MBTA Transit Police, who arrested Perry-Marshall Wednesday afternoon. The victim wasn't hurt.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/attempted-murder-charge-for-mbta-subway-kick-suspect/3009975/

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I can't find anyone actually being injured/killed in Boston by being pushed into a train in the last year via google. What case are you using?

The only one I can find in the past year is one with no injuries.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/attempted-murder-charge-for-mbta-subway-kick-suspect/3009975/

Kind of an odd thing to question... there's that one, and this one. I don't think anyone has died in recent memory? But also, like the way the MBTA is set up, there aren't a lot of stations where someone can be killed by pushing someone onto the tracks, it'd take very deliberate and careful timing because the trains go at like 2 mph

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/02...ed-police-said/

BRAKE FOR MOOSE fucked around with this message at 16:24 on May 26, 2023

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply