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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.
I can only imagine what would happen if Ukraine got nukes again after this war finally stops

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weg
Jun 6, 2006

Reassisted Retrogression

CommieGIR posted:

Yeah China thinks they are acting like a leader pretending they are the cooler heads in all this and trying to save Russia's image in the background.

But in reality, this reeks of being unable to read the geopolitical room. Also: LOL That China might actually believe Russia's nuclear threats are legit.

I think it's more that China is just posturing to play both sides.

If Russia wins, it proves the west is in decline.
If Russia loses, Chinese money will be there to prop up the economy.
If the conflict becomes a decade long stalemate, China acts like the adult in the room for being the only large power to advocate peace.

Sitting on the fence and trying to appease all sides is the perfect strategy for China. They don't want Russia to nuke Ukraine just as much as they don't want Putin to fail and have the Russian federation collapse and possibly bring western friendly republics to their border.

RocketSurgeon
Mar 2, 2008

Dwesa posted:

From the article

What an unfortunate name for a diplomat thats on his way to russia.

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

I'm still surprised China isn't taking this opportunity to thaw relations with the West, move against Russia because lol Russia now, and be the unopposed leader of most of the that entire hemisphere if not the entire thing.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

quote:

Ukraine war: Russia destroys hospital in latest missile attack

At least two people have been killed and 23 injured in a missile strike on a medical clinic in the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro, the regional governor says.

Of the 23 injured, 21 are in hospital and three are in a serious condition.

Two boys aged three and six were also among the wounded, governor Serhiy Lysak said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65720853

It's cool, though, the hospital had far-right tattoos.

gently caress Russia

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

weg posted:

I think it's more that China is just posturing to play both sides.

If Russia wins, it proves the west is in decline.
If Russia loses, Chinese money will be there to prop up the economy.
If the conflict becomes a decade long stalemate, China acts like the adult in the room for being the only large power to advocate peace.

Sitting on the fence and trying to appease all sides is the perfect strategy for China. They don't want Russia to nuke Ukraine just as much as they don't want Putin to fail and have the Russian federation collapse and possibly bring western friendly republics to their border.

Sitting on the fence at this point is actually rather dense. China wants to pretend it can be a geopolitical leader to replace the US, and the reality is they are not there and this is an excellent example of why.

pro starcraft loser posted:

I'm still surprised China isn't taking this opportunity to thaw relations with the West, move against Russia because lol Russia now, and be the unopposed leader of most of the that entire hemisphere if not the entire thing.

This. China has to be beyond dense to believe that it can drag Ukraine to the negotiating table or make the EU see that it needs to happen when Russia is largely blundering backwards like a town drunk. An envoy like this would've made more sense a month after the war started, not nearly a year and a half into one of the worst military blunders in decades. Not to mention believing anybody is going to take Russian negotiations at face value given the last two attempts at such were promptly ripped up by Russia so they could gain an upper hand.

China either doesn't understand why this chilled reception was a given from the start or really doesn't grasp how unified the West is right now.

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 17:08 on May 26, 2023

Ralph Crammed In
May 11, 2007

Let's get clean and smart


I've been thinking, has anyone hosed up this hard geopolitically since WWII? Yeah America invaded Iraq and the USSR Afghanistan but those are "contributing factors" to decline, not full blown "get Finland to join NATO" moves.

Disco Pope
Dec 6, 2004

Top Class!

CommieGIR posted:

Yeah China thinks they are acting like a leader pretending they are the cooler heads in all this and trying to save Russia's image in the background.

But in reality, this reeks of being unable to read the geopolitical room. Also: LOL That China might actually believe Russia's nuclear threats are legit.

I'm not entirely convinced that they do, but it is a very easy thing to condemn and look like the adult in the room, as you say.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually

Ralph Crammed In posted:

I've been thinking, has anyone hosed up this hard geopolitically since WWII? Yeah America invaded Iraq and the USSR Afghanistan but those are "contributing factors" to decline, not full blown "get Finland to join NATO" moves.
The UK deciding to ragequit the continent-sized trading community that their economy was deeply integrated with is going to go down in history as a "They did WHAT?!?" moment

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

weg posted:

I think it's more that China is just posturing to play both sides.

If Russia wins, it proves the west is in decline.
If Russia loses, Chinese money will be there to prop up the economy.
If the conflict becomes a decade long stalemate, China acts like the adult in the room for being the only large power to advocate peace.

Sitting on the fence and trying to appease all sides is the perfect strategy for China. They don't want Russia to nuke Ukraine just as much as they don't want Putin to fail and have the Russian federation collapse and possibly bring western friendly republics to their border.

While this is certainly true, a lot of things seem to point that the idea that Chinese political circles genuinely do believe not just that Ukraine has no real agency in this, that the rest of NATO and the EU also do not, and are merely part of the US's buffer zone against eastern powers like Russia and China. In that picture of the war, Germany and Poland and all are only supporting it for the sake of the US to and can be persuaded to push back against their master.

Ralph Crammed In
May 11, 2007

Let's get clean and smart


FMguru posted:

The UK deciding to ragequit the continent-sized trading community that their economy was deeply integrated with is going to go down in history as a "They did WHAT?!?" moment

Yeah but no one got blown up, save a bunch of sex asses

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

Ralph Crammed In posted:

Yeah but no one got blown up, save a bunch of sex asses

Been a rough couple years for the sex arse

Disco Pope
Dec 6, 2004

Top Class!

Ralph Crammed In posted:

Yeah but no one got blown up, save a bunch of sex asses

Um, actually, those are quality silicone, NOT inflatable.

Molothecat
Jul 25, 2007

Wrath, hate, pain, and death!

China needs resources and fuel. Russia either has or helps with both. I can't imagine China cares about this war other than:

A) disrupting some ledger lines and
B) democracies banding together to aid another democracy is directly in opposition to their stated aims concerning a certain "rogue province"

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Killer robot posted:

While this is certainly true, a lot of things seem to point that the idea that Chinese political circles genuinely do believe not just that Ukraine has no real agency in this, that the rest of NATO and the EU also do not, and are merely part of the US's buffer zone against eastern powers like Russia and China. In that picture of the war, Germany and Poland and all are only supporting it for the sake of the US to and can be persuaded to push back against their master.

I'm about as far from being a pundit as you can get but the impression I get is that Chinese diplomats and foreign policy aren't playing 5D chess (like people kept saying about Putin for years) but that they've just been so compromised by domestic ideology and internal political exigencies (as has Russia) that they can't help but keep doing and saying pointlessly antagonistic, myopic things - due to a combination of needing to show some material gains and toe the line at home, buying (as you say) too deeply into this spheres of influence/regional vassalisation worldview, and just straight up not understanding or appreciating cultural or democratic nuances, which is apparently a common symptom of the nationalist disease

Scam Likely
Feb 19, 2021

Mainland Taiwan is probably pretty worried about all the direct and relevant experience the West is gaining in missile defense as this war drags on.

Molothecat
Jul 25, 2007

Wrath, hate, pain, and death!

Scam Likely posted:

Mainland Taiwan is probably pretty worried about all the direct and relevant experience the West is gaining in missile defense as this war drags on.

It's honestly a tailor-made case study for them. Large, authoritarian government with a populace partially running under megacapitalism with a larger percentage in pretty rough, rural conditions and a neighbor that "rightfully belongs to them."


edit: not to mention a love for big-dick military parades and a smattering of "unstoppable superweapons."

Samovar
Jun 4, 2011

When I want to relax, I read an essay by Engels. When I want something more serious, I read Corto Maltese.


Flavahbeast posted:

its nice to at least see some good things happening there, using prisoners as slave labor is hosed up

Alas, it is still codified in other places. Like the US. Would that it could meet a similar situation there (albeit not due to an absolutely pointless war).

And yeah, Brexit is certainly the peaceful equivalent of stupidest thing a country has ever done since WWII and likely several decades before it.

Samovar fucked around with this message at 17:48 on May 26, 2023

Bluemillion
Aug 18, 2008

I got your dispensers
right here

The sequel is way better:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6skqOouxuFs

Jagged Jim
Sep 26, 2013

I... I can only look though the window...

Flavahbeast posted:

its nice to at least see some good things happening there, using prisoners as slave labor is hosed up

While I don't disagree with you I don't think "We can't use prisoners as slave labor because we already killed them all in our imperialist war of aggression." is that much better.

tiaz
Jul 1, 2004

PICK UP THAT PRESENT.


Zelensky's Zealots

Samovar posted:

Alas, it is still codified in other places. Like the US. Would that it could meet a similar situation there (albeit not due to an absolutely pointless war).

And yeah, Brexit is certainly the peaceful equivalent of stupidest thing a country has ever done since WWII and likely several decades before it.

depends where in the US. Oregon recently forbade it, for example.

Deki
May 12, 2008

It's Hammer Time!

Randarkman posted:

You know they could probably actually do a fair bit about that second one if they actually put some pressure on Russia. That's really China's value in any potential peace talks, there's really no one who has could exert the same level of diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia as they can now. But they haven't really done anything with it, and all that talk of peace and Western governments supposedly being able to pressure Ukraine to settle counts infinitely more against China on the part of Russia I feel like, given who the aggressor in this thing is.

Yeah, but they haven't shown even a single bit of a hint that they're willing to do that or be a remotely fair negotiator or give even a sliver of a poo poo about the people of Ukraine. I wouldn't put any more stock in a guarantee by China that Russia won't just rearm and come back again than I would Russia claiming the same. Hell, China'd probably love to be the ones to re-arm them.


pro starcraft loser posted:

I'm still surprised China isn't taking this opportunity to thaw relations with the West, move against Russia because lol Russia now, and be the unopposed leader of most of the that entire hemisphere if not the entire thing.

Because Xi's a shortsighted authoritarian piece of poo poo as well? They could soothe over a lot of local tensions pretty quickly by stopping their SCS bullying and pulling back from the contested land they stole from India if they really wanted to consolidate their local soft power. But they don't.

I don't see why he has a reputation for being a savvy leader in a lot of places, What's china done since he's consolidated power beyond piss off trading partners and stomp the boot on HK?

Drone_Fragger
May 9, 2007


Chinas goal is to end the war with russia annexing a bunch of land and everyone agreeing to it so china can then have a free pass to attempt the same thing with taiwan and anywhere else they fancy.

If china was serious about ending the war they could force pre war boundary's woth economic threats and sanctions very easily but chose not to.

Also if i was china I'd be seriously cautious of dick waving as all their equipment is descended from the same junk soviet gear that russia is losing so I would expect its equally vulnerable with equally poor updates. Chinas graft isnt quite as bad as russias but its still real bad.

Dr. Quarex
Apr 18, 2003

I'M A BIG DORK WHO POSTS TOO MUCH ABOUT CONVENTIONS LOOK AT THIS

TOVA TOVA TOVA

Ralph Crammed In posted:

I've been thinking, has anyone hosed up this hard geopolitically since WWII? Yeah America invaded Iraq and the USSR Afghanistan but those are "contributing factors" to decline, not full blown "get Finland to join NATO" moves.
Brexit as FMGuru said was basically the peacetime equivalent of this, just absolutely destroying your economy because it will help you gain popularity among racists until they realize you absolutely destroyed your economy

I keep thinking about how astounding everything has been about the Russian invasion since it started. I remember reading the threads here in late February/early March and appreciating that even though obviously Ukraine was going to be overrun and seemingly nobody was going to help stop Russia, at least Russia was incompetent enough that they were losing a lot of military equipment in the process and definitively looking like idiots despite, of course, ultimately obtaining their goals despite themselves.

Here we are a year later and all the geopolitical sharks have spent so long smelling so much blood in the global waters that it is virtually a free-for-all supporting Ukraine to take Russia out of the conversation as a threat for decades to come, and most countries surely know this is an objectively good thing no matter what else happens as a result. I am not sure how long ago I went from "I am glad Ukraine can hold out for a while" to "wow Russia has absolutely no chance of 'winning'" but I am glad for the way things have gone.

weg
Jun 6, 2006

Reassisted Retrogression

Killer robot posted:

While this is certainly true, a lot of things seem to point that the idea that Chinese political circles genuinely do believe not just that Ukraine has no real agency in this, that the rest of NATO and the EU also do not, and are merely part of the US's buffer zone against eastern powers like Russia and China. In that picture of the war, Germany and Poland and all are only supporting it for the sake of the US to and can be persuaded to push back against their master.

I agree with this assessment, though if it's what they believe I think they are wrong about Europe only doing it for the sake of US interests. If they think former Soviet countries only care because the US does that's very naive lol.


CommieGIR posted:

Sitting on the fence at this point is actually rather dense. China wants to pretend it can be a geopolitical leader to replace the US, and the reality is they are not there and this is an excellent example of why.

China either doesn't understand why this chilled reception was a given from the start or really doesn't grasp how unified the West is right now.
It is dense but I think it's a practical approach. If US and Russian interests turn Europe into a mess China doesn't stand much to gain by backing either side. They would much rather use it as a distraction to expand their own sphere of influence in Asia, as well as continue to work on the exploitation of emerging African economies and raw materials. Then if Europe explodes into war again a neutral China can reap the benefits of economically and politically destroyed countries.

Drone_Fragger posted:

Chinas goal is to end the war with russia annexing a bunch of land and everyone agreeing to it so china can then have a free pass to attempt the same thing with taiwan and anywhere else they fancy.

If china was serious about ending the war they could force pre war boundary's woth economic threats and sanctions very easily but chose not to.

Also if i was china I'd be seriously cautious of dick waving as all their equipment is descended from the same junk soviet gear that russia is losing so I would expect its equally vulnerable with equally poor updates. Chinas graft isnt quite as bad as russias but its still real bad.
This is their preferred outcome for sure. Understanding that a lot of their military equipment wouldn't fair much better in an invasion of Taiwan than Russia's has in Ukraine, along with the fact that a sea invasion is a lot harder than a land one, I wonder how much they even see invading Taiwan as a real possibility anymore.

If Russia had steamrolled Ukraine and NATO just sat back and let them, I feel like we would already be seeing an invasion of Taiwan start to take shape.

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

The_Franz posted:

What's the purpose of going to Europe to push this? There's only one person who can bring about a cease-fire, and he'd be arrested if he set foot in Europe.

"War bad"

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

TulliusCicero posted:

It really is amazing how much Russian chuds are like 1/1 with American chuds in just like, completely batshit beliefs about christianity/ LGBTQ.

Is there a historical/ cultural event that happened that made the two so similar? I can't imagine just the Cold War did this to both nations' chud brains.

It's just standard reactionary poo poo


The loving sad music. As if look at what you made me do you harlot

Randarkman posted:

You know they could probably actually do a fair bit about that second one if they actually put some pressure on Russia. That's really China's value in any potential peace talks, there's really no one who has could exert the same level of diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia as they can now. But they haven't really done anything with it, and all that talk of peace and Western governments supposedly being able to pressure Ukraine to settle counts infinitely more against China on the part of Russia I feel like, given who the aggressor in this thing is.

China doesn't want America/the 'west' to win, that's the thing. They also don't want a large escalation or destabilization in that region. So they've got these contradictory desires as to what they want out of the whole conflict, but for the most part they are for Russia even if maybe they'd prefer if the whole thing just ended. As per usual what they want has little or nothing to do with anyone's welfare. Just pure realpolitik bullshit

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

I'm glad Russia de-nazified every structure in bakhmut. I mean my family wanted to go camping more and now we can live in a tent permanently!!!!

ZogrimAteMyHamster
Dec 8, 2015

Drone_Fragger posted:

Chinas graft isnt quite as bad as russias but its still real bad.

差不多!

Dick Bastardly
Aug 22, 2012

Muttley is SKYNET!!!

Groverpipe spotted

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




I like how China, Russia, all these other authoritarian shitheads always operate under the idea that Ukraine has zero agency, that this is all just one big nebulous doing of the perfidious West.

I suspect the United States would be in a much better position internally and globally if it really was the ultimate posting puppet master.

Samovar
Jun 4, 2011

When I want to relax, I read an essay by Engels. When I want something more serious, I read Corto Maltese.


tiaz posted:

depends where in the US. Oregon recently forbade it, for example.

Oh good.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1662169649771839520

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

Drone_Fragger posted:

Chinas goal is to end the war with russia annexing a bunch of land and everyone agreeing to it so china can then have a free pass to attempt the same thing with taiwan and anywhere else they fancy.

If china was serious about ending the war they could force pre war boundary's woth economic threats and sanctions very easily but chose not to.

Also if i was china I'd be seriously cautious of dick waving as all their equipment is descended from the same junk soviet gear that russia is losing so I would expect its equally vulnerable with equally poor updates. Chinas graft isnt quite as bad as russias but its still real bad.

Yeah it must be kinda lovely from their POV to see the West have their war goods dial at "5" and the US's at "3" and see what that actually produces.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Flavahbeast posted:

its nice to at least see some good things happening there, using prisoners as slave labor is hosed up

Samovar posted:

Alas, it is still codified in other places. Like the US. Would that it could meet a similar situation there (albeit not due to an absolutely pointless war).

And yeah, Brexit is certainly the peaceful equivalent of stupidest thing a country has ever done since WWII and likely several decades before it.

It's still codified in Russia, just to be clear. Prisoner labor is down in Russia because the prisoners that did the labor are dead in Ukraine. This is not better.


Oh man it is a Kirbykhanian attempt at trolling isn't it.

ZogrimAteMyHamster
Dec 8, 2015

pro starcraft loser posted:

Yeah it must be kinda lovely from their POV to see the West have their war goods dial at "5" and the US's at "3" and see what that actually produces.

China at "10":

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1662156703356399616
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1662184011836342286
It seems Russia got screwed over again courtesy of another missile strike, this time in Mariupol. Huge ammo depot near a barracks got hit, on the territory of the Azovstal plant, and took the barracks with it.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
I think some of the Chinese position is that they got the inside deets of the upcoming invasion, got high on Putin's (back of the pants) supply while watching some kick-rear end VDV music vids and bitching about THE WEST, and thought Russia would be able to Kiev in 3 days at which point they'd be able to say, oh war bad but whatcha gonna do?

But that didn't happen and they probably didn't think that the western world would react as strongly. They're stuck because they sold it to their people as unlimited friendship or whatever and dear leader can't backtrack at this point.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

I think some of the Chinese position is that they got the inside deets of the upcoming invasion, got high on Putin's (back of the pants) supply while watching some kick-rear end VDV music vids and bitching about THE WEST, and thought Russia would be able to Kiev in 3 days at which point they'd be able to say, oh war bad but whatcha gonna do?

But that didn't happen and they probably didn't think that the western world would react as strongly. They're stuck because they sold it to their people as unlimited friendship or whatever and dear leader can't backtrack at this point.

You can be sure Winnie the Pooh wanted to and had planned for invading Taiwan around the time of Russia's misadventure in Ukraine, but Pooh Bear didn't anticipate the strong western response to the invasion, nor Russia's own miserable failure, which rattled him and his inner circle. To make matters worse for him, the western world is now rearming themselves and setting up supply chains for arms, ammo, and equipment of all descriptions. And these supply chains aren't going to go dark after the war ends, because not only do armories need filling, anyone who formerly bought arms from Russia will be looking to replace their junk with something better if they can afford it, after it nearly all failed miserably at its roles on Ukrainian soil.

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spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008







This is incredibly concerning, because TASS has said something along the same lines only that Ukraine is planning it. Meaning that Russia is definitely up to something.

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