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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

That story also says that there wasn't a train there when it happened and that nobody was injured...

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Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
I was told that the crazies in the house, the boeberts, greens, etc, can just stop all legislative activity by simply asking for the speaker to be replaced. Is this possible for them to do and if they do it are all those words above re: debt negotiations all hosed?

Twincityhacker
Feb 18, 2011

Subway pushes accounted for 25 deaths in Neq York City in 2022. Pedesteian deaths was 25 that year.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Boris Galerkin posted:

I was told that the crazies in the house, the boeberts, greens, etc, can just stop all legislative activity by simply asking for the speaker to be replaced. Is this possible for them to do and if they do it are all those words above re: debt negotiations all hosed?

They can't stop all legislative activity, but they can call a vote with just 1 person. Someone other than McCarthy would have to get the most votes and that new speaker could theoretically decide not to put any legislation up for a vote. But, they can't just pause all legislative activity with one person. Individuals in the House have very little procedural power, unlike the Senate.

Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

Mellow Seas posted:

Whoever the speaker is, they're going to be answering to the same people in the Freedom Caucus. And if the debt ceiling is taken off the table and they've already struck a budget deal for '24 and '25 then there's not much the next speaker can really do to gently caress stuff up, right? It's not like any Republican legislation is passing.

Meanwhile you get "Republicans in disarray" narratives, which aren't likely to help them in '24, and if they don't have any other candidate for speaker who can half-please both factions like McCarthy kind of did, then who knows what happens.

This. Plus I want to watch McCarthy's dream fall apart on national television.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Blue Footed Booby posted:

This. Plus I want to watch McCarthy's dream fall apart on national television.

Again

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

Blue Footed Booby posted:

This. Plus I want to watch McCarthy's dream fall apart on national television.

The last "young gun" suffering the most prolonged and hilarious humiliation

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


If McCarthy makes the GOP blink and saves the country, I'll give him a pass and let him live out his miserable, pointless term. We want to encourage more McCarthy's and fewer McConnell's.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

They can't stop all legislative activity, but they can call a vote with just 1 person. Someone other than McCarthy would have to get the most votes and that new speaker could theoretically decide not to put any legislation up for a vote. But, they can't just pause all legislative activity with one person. Individuals in the House have very little procedural power, unlike the Senate.

So they can't call for a new speaker and then effectively pause the negotiations by making a circus show of the speaker vote? I'm thinking like repeatedly call for a vote, having McCarthy win after a long long debate and delay, only for the next idiot to call for another vote, repeat forever until McCarthy agrees to drop the deal?

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Boris Galerkin posted:

So they can't call for a new speaker and then effectively pause the negotiations by making a circus show of the speaker vote? I'm thinking like repeatedly call for a vote, having McCarthy win after a long long debate and delay, only for the next idiot to call for another vote, repeat forever until McCarthy agrees to drop the deal?

They can do it over and over, but it doesn't trigger a vote right away and force them to drop everything. It would be referred to committee and there would be some procedural votes before the final vote. It would dramatically slow things down, but they couldn't literally stop any vote from ever happening.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:

Kind of an odd thing to question... there's that one, and this one. I don't think anyone has died in recent memory? But also, like the way the MBTA is set up, there aren't a lot of stations where someone can be killed by pushing someone onto the tracks, it'd take very deliberate and careful timing because the trains go at like 2 mph

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/02...ed-police-said/

And again, nyc has the highest subway ridership in the country by far. Leon is playing up something like 2 dozen incidents in a system that literally handles millions of riders per a day.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Not sure how significant or consequential the slowdown could possibly be, but it should be noted that if there was any concern that McCarthy losing his position would interfere with the Dems getting a good deal, they can easily keep him in the speakership for as long as they want, by having the necessary number of Dems vote for him, instead of Jefferies, that puts him over 218.

Distasteful, yes, but materially inconsequential. Once we have the deal in hand, though, there's no reason to do that.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs
Technically, the Dems could keep McCarthy as speaker too. Especially if it's to get a favorable debt deal through.

Efb

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME
Laughing at the idea of McCarthy striking this deal relying on dems to keep him in power in exchange for not shooting the hostage

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Shageletic posted:

And again, nyc has the highest subway ridership in the country by far. Leon is playing up something like 2 dozen incidents in a system that literally handles millions of riders per a day.

It's just weird that they have a 1:1 ratio of subway pushing deaths vs. pedestrian deaths compared to other major cities with either 0 or 1:40 ratios. It's not a normal thing in NYC either. It's just a weird stat and change the NYT article was explaining. Nobody is saying that everyone is being constantly pushed into trains in NYC, but the ratio difference to previous years and other cities is pretty wild. For most cities, it is literally an infinity percent difference because it's 0.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs
NYC has usable subways, for one thing. I live in a different major US city and take more NYC subway rides on average just from the few times I visit throughout the year

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




There are a couple of other thing going on with NYC subway stuff. It’s specific lines. Some lines have ridership way down (which makes folks feel unsafe). Some companies are forcing WFH now. There are gender issues involved (it’s often women not feeling safe).

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

koolkal posted:

NYC has usable subways, for one thing.

Maybe if you live in NYC and have become familiar with it. As a visitor, it was far and away the most byzantine subway system I've ever used. In Paris, London, Boston, and Washington (the others I am familiar with) it's just "these are the lines, they go in two directions," and that's it. With NYC you have all the weird express trains with no schedule posted anywhere so if you get on the wrong one you'll wind up missing the stop you need. Plus other subways are built like a network to get you around the city, all the NYC subway does is funnel you in or out of Manhattan.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Twincityhacker posted:

Subway pushes accounted for 25 deaths in Neq York City in 2022. Pedesteian deaths was 25 that year.

Are you counting pushes versus deaths right? Because I thought the same thing until I looked (and gently caress it's hard to do for this since there are do many Manhattan Institute and NY Post articles making GBS threads things up and trying to gin up fear) and the only thing I can find is this daily mail article that says 25 people were pushed but only 2 died in 2022 so far (this was published in Oct 2022): https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11357789/amp/TWENTY-FIVE-victims-shoved-NYC-subway-cars-far-year.html

There are more people found dead on tracks (like 88 from 1 dubious source) but those are likely suicides and people trying to cross the tracks/live on them

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

There are a couple of other thing going on with NYC subway stuff. It’s specific lines. Some lines have ridership way down (which makes folks feel unsafe). Some companies are forcing WFH now. There are gender issues involved (it’s often women not feeling safe).
Good news, the gender and safety problems of public transit have now been solved!



(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Edge & Christian
May 20, 2001

Earth-1145 is truly the best!
A world of singing, magic frogs,
high adventure, no shitposters

Twincityhacker posted:

Subway pushes accounted for 25 deaths in Neq York City in 2022. Pedesteian deaths was 25 that year.
Where are you pulling these numbers from? I see a Daily Mail article citing NYPD statements saying 25 people were shoved onto subway tracks, killing two. That tracks with the actual documented cases of people dying from being pushed onto the tracks:

January 15, 2022: Michelle Go is shoved onto the tracks in an apparent hate crime
October 17, 2022: Heriberto Quintana jostles a man who drops his phone onto the tracks. In the ensuing argument, Quintana is punched and shoved onto the tracks and dies.

So that's two, admittedly there were way more than 2 (or 25) deaths on the subway tracks -- the MTA reported 88 in 2022 -- but the vast majority of those were people on the tracks for shelter/work/graffiti/trying to ride on the outside of the train and falling.

Meanwhile, there were 118 pedestrian deaths in NYC in 2022, not including people who died while on bicycles or in vehicles, just to clarify it from the "traffic deaths" number for 2022, which was 225.

And to what was mentioned above, any sort of internet search for these numbers turns up basically ten articles from the New York Post, Manhattan Institute, Daily Mail, Daily Caller, Breitbart, etc. for everyone one DOT/MTA/Vision Zero press release, and very little coverage outside of that, except maybe citing the numbers when reporting on a distinct incident, which again is extremely more common for people being run down in the street by cars than getting pushed in front of trains, and both of which happen pretty rarely.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

It's just weird that they have a 1:1 ratio of subway pushing deaths vs. pedestrian deaths compared to other major cities with either 0 or 1:40 ratios. It's not a normal thing in NYC either. It's just a weird stat and change the NYT article was explaining. Nobody is saying that everyone is being constantly pushed into trains in NYC, but the ratio difference to previous years and other cities is pretty wild. For most cities, it is literally an infinity percent difference because it's 0.
So it's not a 1:1 ratio, it's actually a 1:59 ratio.

Edge & Christian fucked around with this message at 17:47 on May 26, 2023

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

So did Newt Gingrich originate debt ceiling hostage taking as part of his total war vision of congressional politics?

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Zwabu posted:

So did Newt Gingrich originate debt ceiling hostage taking as part of his total war vision of congressional politics?

I believe 2011 was the first instance of a debt ceiling crisis.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Zwabu posted:

So did Newt Gingrich originate debt ceiling hostage taking as part of his total war vision of congressional politics?

This is an Obama era creation from the Republican Party knowing that most American's have no understanding of the federal budget.

plogo
Jan 20, 2009
Here's a video from during the eisenhower years with Wright Patman (the guy that held Louie Gohmert's seat) complaining about how the debt ceiling is dumb.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHdh55w9xt4&t=267s

plogo fucked around with this message at 17:56 on May 26, 2023

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


plogo posted:

Here's a video from during the eisenhower years with Wright Patman (the guy that held Louie Gohmert's seat) complaining about how the debt ceiling is dumb.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHdh55w9xt4&t=267s

It's so loving weird to watch a politician sit and just talk about textbook monetary policy without either grandstanding or getting into a Jerry Springer style argument with someone.

Liquid Communism
Mar 9, 2004

коммунизм хранится в яичках

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

In a sane world, none of this should be happening over the debt limit and would be happening during budget negotiations. But, if they do adopt the provision that makes it so they don't have to do any budget negotiations with Republicans for FY24 or FY25, then they prevent the Republicans from coming back and trying another hostage situation with a government shutdown and Biden can keep his rhetorical pledge that "we negotiated over the budget and not the credit of the U.S."

In a sane world the 'debt limit' isn't even a question because Congress has a constitutional duty to make good on the country's debts.

Which includes paying the military and government employees what they're owed, which stops every time they pull this bullshit.

Liquid Communism fucked around with this message at 18:16 on May 26, 2023

IPlayVideoGames
Nov 28, 2004

I unironically like Anders as a character.

Zwabu posted:

So did Newt Gingrich originate debt ceiling hostage taking as part of his total war vision of congressional politics?

Newt Gingrich shut the government down because he was mad about where he got seated on an airplane.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

KillHour posted:

It's so loving weird to watch a politician sit and just talk about textbook monetary policy without either grandstanding or getting into a Jerry Springer style argument with someone.

Listen man, we got advertisers to chase.

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Judgy Fucker posted:

Maybe if you live in NYC and have become familiar with it. As a visitor, it was far and away the most byzantine subway system I've ever used. In Paris, London, Boston, and Washington (the others I am familiar with) it's just "these are the lines, they go in two directions," and that's it. With NYC you have all the weird express trains with no schedule posted anywhere so if you get on the wrong one you'll wind up missing the stop you need. Plus other subways are built like a network to get you around the city, all the NYC subway does is funnel you in or out of Manhattan.

I suppose I am biased but lmao at thinking the NYC subway is worse than fuckin Paris. God bless and keep RATP far away from me

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

IPlayVideoGames posted:

Newt Gingrich shut the government down because he was mad about where he got seated on an airplane.

Oh that's right, government shutdown. But still it seems like this was the original version of congressional hostage taking. It just seems like government shutdown is pointing a shotgun at your family, debt default is moving up to putting a nuclear bomb in the center of the city.

Is Mitch responsible for the default version of hostage taking?

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Zwabu posted:

Oh that's right, government shutdown. But still it seems like this was the original version of congressional hostage taking. It just seems like government shutdown is pointing a shotgun at your family, debt default is moving up to putting a nuclear bomb in the center of the city.

Is Mitch responsible for the default version of hostage taking?

According to wikipedia:

quote:

The U.S. Treasury nearly hit the debt ceiling in fall 1953, plus the Senate refused to raise it until summer 1954, but the federal government managed to avoid reaching it through using various measures, such as monetizing leftover gold.
Prior to the Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, the debt ceiling played an important role since Congress had few opportunities to hold hearings and debates on the budget.[10] James Surowiecki argued that the debt ceiling lost its usefulness after these reforms to the budget process.[11]

In 1979, noting the potential problems of hitting a default, Dick Gephardt (Rep, D-MO) imposed the "Gephardt Rule," a parliamentary rule that deemed the debt ceiling raised when a budget was passed. This resolved the contradiction in voting for appropriations but not voting to fund them. The rule stood until it was repealed by Congress in 1995.[12]
And guess who held Congress in 1995? Our ol' buddy Newt.

quote:

Following the increase in the debt ceiling to $16.394 trillion in 2011,[19] the United States again reached the debt ceiling on December 31, 2012 and the Treasury began taking extraordinary measures. The fiscal cliff was resolved with the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (ATRA), but no action was taken on the debt ceiling. With the ATRA tax cuts, the government indicated that the debt ceiling needed to raise by $700 billion for it to continue financing operations for the rest of the 2013 fiscal year[20] and that extraordinary measures were expected to be exhausted by February 15.[21] Treasury has said it is not set up to prioritize payments, and it's not clear that it would be legal to do so. Given this situation, Treasury would simply delay payments if funds could not be raised through extraordinary measures and the debt ceiling had not been raised. This would put a freeze on 7% of the nation's GDP, a contraction greater than the Great Recession. The economic damage would worsen as recipients of social security benefits, government contracts, and other government payments cut back on spending in response to having the freeze in their revenue.[22]

The No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013 suspended the debt ceiling from February 4, 2013 until May 19, 2013. On May 19, the debt ceiling was formally raised to approximately $16.699 trillion to accommodate the borrowing done during the suspension period. However, after the end of the suspension, the ceiling was raised only to the actual debt at that time, and Treasury needed to activate extraordinary measures to avoid a default. With the impacts of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 tax increases on those who make $400,000 per year, the 2013 sequester, and a $60 billion payment from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that reached the Treasury on June 28, 2013, the extraordinary measures were predicted to last until October 17 by the Treasury,[23] but financial firms suggested funds might have lasted a little longer. Jefferies Group said extraordinary measures might have lasted until the end of October while Credit Suisse estimated mid-November.[24]

Members of the Republican Party in Congress opposed raising the debt ceiling, which had been routinely raised previously on a bipartisan basis without conditions, without additional spending cuts. They refused to raise the debt ceiling unless President Obama would have defunded the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), his signature legislative achievement.[citation needed] The US Treasury began taking extraordinary measures to enable payments, and stated that it would delay payments if funds could not be raised through extraordinary measures, and the debt ceiling was not raised. During the crisis, approval ratings for the Republican Party declined.[25] The crisis ended on October 17, 2013 with the passing of the Continuing Appropriations Act, 2014, although debate continues about the appropriate level of government spending, and the use of the debt ceiling in such negotiations.The 1995 request for a debt ceiling increase led to debate in Congress on reduction of the size of the federal government, which led to the non-passage of the federal budget, and the United States federal government shutdown of 1995–96. The ceiling was eventually increased and the government shutdown resolved.[15][16]

In 2011, Republicans in Congress used the debt ceiling as leverage for deficit reduction because of the lack of Congressional normal order for fiscal year budget votes on the chamber floors and subsequent conference reconciliations between the House and the Senate for final budgets. The credit downgrade and debt ceiling debacle contributed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2,000 points in late July and August. Following the downgrade itself, the DJIA had one of its worst days in history and fell 635 points on August 8.[17] The GAO estimated that the delay in raising the debt ceiling raised borrowing costs for the government by $1.3 billion in 2011 and noted that the delay would also raise costs in later years. The Bipartisan Policy Center extended the GAO's estimates and found that the delay raised borrowing costs by $18.9 billion over ten years.[18]

Twincityhacker
Feb 18, 2011

My bad on the sources, sorry.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

I suppose I am biased but lmao at thinking the NYC subway is worse than fuckin Paris. God bless and keep RATP far away from me

London is better than NYC and NYC is better than Paris.

All 3 are very straightforward to navigate if you have access to Google Maps and can recognize basic numbers, letters, shapes, and colours.

Some other cities are way better though (Lisbon, Barcelona, Shanghai)

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”
Why did the Democrats not put the Gephardt rule back into place?

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Mustang posted:

Why did the Democrats not put the Gephardt rule back into place?

Probably because it would've only hamstrung them, since the GOP would've just rescinded it again once they took control like they did in 1995.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Mustang posted:

Why did the Democrats not put the Gephardt rule back into place?

It's a parliamentary rule that is determined by whoever controls the House. People stopped using it after it was repealed because budget votes became more partisan, so Republicans will lift the debt ceiling with their budget when they control congress, but not when Democrats do. Democrats just lifted the debt ceiling as part of their budgets when they controlled it. Congress also stopped passing full budgets for a long time, instead passing constant continuing resolutions, which made it moot. The main point of the Gephardt rule was that if the Senate amended the budget, then they didn't have to vote on the debt ceiling again if it already passed the house with the budget.

Here's a good history on it:

https://www.congressionalinstitute....t%20resolution.

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

I suppose I am biased but lmao at thinking the NYC subway is worse than fuckin Paris. God bless and keep RATP far away from me

The Paris metro has stops every 1500 feet throughout the city. If you earnestly think the NYC subway is better than the Paris metro you are a loving idiot

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Oracle posted:

According to wikipedia:

And guess who held Congress in 1995? Our ol' buddy Newt.

Did Clinton sign that repeal bill or did Congress override his veto?

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Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

So Leon are you going to address that your whole narrative and concern re subway pushing in nyc seems to be built on dubious statistics and right wing fearmongering or not?

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