FirstnameLastname posted:

not saying it's good

it just makes sense it'd happen, coming up with a plan where you still lose in the end just makes you sound like a bad planner unless the ppl looking at it are also expecting failure bc "the other guy's plan has the same things happen except in that plan we still win youre fired loser"

Frosted Flake posted:

lol

See what I mean about everyone forgetting we got leaks about the state of Ukrainian Air Defences?

Mr Teatime posted:

Okay guys be honest with me here, is this a weird response to you or is it supposed to be some quirky c-spam poo poo that I’m just not hip enough to get?

supersnowman posted:

What? Russia already announced storm shadows were used in successful strike on Azovstal for example. They don't claim 100% interception rate.

hot date tonight! posted:

You're right, I was seeing some sketchier sources now that I'm rechecking them. They do still claim to intercept a pretty high number of them though, way beyond what seems reasonable.

Mr Teatime posted:

I think it’s a perfectly reasonable response to take Ukrainian air defence success numbers with a grain of salt, it is however astonishingly naive to believe that Russia is carefully targeting all these strikes at military installations to minimise civilian casualties. A charitable explanation is that Russia is attempting to do that but is too incompetent and incapable to manage it but frankly if you’re hurling missiles at cities and you know you can’t precision target worth a poo poo then that’s pretty much just as bad as doing it indiscriminately.

Frosted Flake posted:

"They have so much new, advanced equipment that it's actually bad" is ... like... what do you even call the tone we describe China in?

This seems bad (for us),



but what I mean about tone is that it contrasts China, (where nearly everything is made), with industrialized countries (where we know industries were moved to China).

You can say it's just linguistics and better than "orient/occident", "first/third world", "civilized/(insert derogatory term here)" but for artillery doctrine specifically, which do you think has the industrial base to produce more guns and ammunition? Which do you think - you can argue about timeframe and scale - is overmatched?

crepeface posted:

remember when ukrainian anti-air missiles killed two farmers in poland or when they admitted that their own anti-air took out an apartment building before they quickly retracted the statement and arestovych stepped down?

Frosted Flake posted:

"They have so much new, advanced equipment that it's actually bad" is ... like... what do you even call the tone we describe China in?

This seems bad (for us),



but what I mean about tone is that it contrasts China, (where nearly everything is made), with industrialized countries (where we know industries were moved to China).

You can say it's just linguistics and better than "orient/occident", "first/third world", "civilized/(insert derogatory term here)" but for artillery doctrine specifically, which do you think has the industrial base to produce more guns and ammunition? Which do you think - you can argue about timeframe and scale - is overmatched?

quote:

This is a great question and is very close to my heart/ego.

To go back a bit, this thing began as a doctrine document, not an intelligence one. As I proceeded through writing it, I discovered that no one had written on any of this since...1984. And the IC got VERY interested once word got out what we were developing.

Fast forward to editing and staffing, our leadership gave us two orders: 1) it had to fully comply with IC positions on everything, and 2) it had to be fully unclass (not even CUI). This made editing quite a chore, as I had to make sure every statement in the book was either validated by or not commented on by the IC. The compliance part was fairly simple: I just had to get the thumbs up from every corner of the IC. Making it fully unclass was harder, and it meant that I had to be judicious in what was included and omit some things that were of definite interest to the training audience.

Your question about the moving target is a good one also -- there isn't really any speculation in the ATP that isn't backed by proper intel, but the PLA is sort of obsessed with change and that makes doctrine (which is usually on a much longer timeline) hard to maintain. A good axiom -- relevant to what is happening in Ukraine right now -- is "doctrine doesn't change with the news." That said, we're anticipating a new major doctrine revision from the PLA in the next 18-24 months (the first in 15 years) and that will likely drive changes in the ATP.

Frosted Flake posted:

Sure, but every discussion starts like this,



While the latest publication on PLA Army tactics presents a modern, appropriately organized, and well equipped, force.

and I'm not saying your bosses want to see one or another, just that nobody reads Chinese, there's not much in translation, we don't have observers at their exercises or visiting their military very much at all... so... we're just kind of assuming that every positive assessment must be taken with a grain of salt, while their not loving around in the dessert for 20 years in unquestionably a weakness.

Slavvy posted:

What's reasonable? The only way to gauge that is to know how many sams the Russians have concentrated in those areas and then do some basic arithmetic using the likely interception rate of the s300. We have that info for Ukraine, which is why their claims are wildly out of proportion with what's possible at all. We can't say the same for the Russian claims atm because we have no way of knowing how many batteries they have concentrated in a given area.

Cuttlefush posted:

stormshadows are relatively slow (~mach 1) and have a range of like 500km if air-launched. if they have awacs up or other means of monitoring aircraft they will have pretty early warning of incoming cruise missiles. and they're fairly slow anyway so intercepting them is just not going to be too difficult.

hot date tonight! posted:

We really don't have that info for Ukraine in any realistic way, it's not like they're actually telling us accurately how many systems they have and where they've place them. That would be very silly of them.

Any claims above like 60% start to strain credibility to me, but if they had a concentrated force somewhere it should have higher success rates and it's hard to know.

There's more to a successful interception that just long range detection, you may be able to detect something before you can actually lock and intercept. The storm shadow claims some stealth capability intended to reduce locking range but as far as I know we don't have much data on how effective it is. Either way I don't think it's that simple.

hot date tonight! posted:

We really don't have that info for Ukraine in any realistic way, it's not like they're actually telling us accurately how many systems they have and where they've place them. That would be very silly of them.

Any claims above like 60% start to strain credibility to me, but if they had a concentrated force somewhere it should have higher success rates and it's hard to know.

There's more to a successful interception that just long range detection, you may be able to detect something before you can actually lock and intercept. The storm shadow claims some stealth capability intended to reduce locking range but as far as I know we don't have much data on how effective it is. Either way I don't think it's that simple.

Slavvy posted:

We literally do have accurate SAM information from the leaks

Cuttlefush posted:

pretty sure they don't have any actual stealth features and that's just media articles calling them "stealthy" for some reason. they might have pen-aids but that kind of thing is usually not on the export models.

Cuttlefush posted:

i think that was literally written by a /r/credibledefense reddit guy? here's his claimed motivation for it: https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/wdgwle/please_join_us_for_a_discussion_of_the_us_army/iikg3iq/

that's kind of unbelieveable but also would explain some things

yeah reading his account posts... that's gotta be real. so yeah the us army doctrine document writer guys are literally just the reddit war guys

hot date tonight! posted:

Assuming that information was accurate, I think it's pretty unlikely they didn't move those systems around after the leaks happened

Information is totally messed up by the media hype on this one so I'm not totally sure

hot date tonight! posted:

Assuming that information was accurate, I think it's pretty unlikely they didn't move those systems around after the leaks happened

Information is totally messed up by the media hype on this one so I'm not totally sure

Slavvy posted:

You didn't look at the leaks did you

Mr Teatime posted:

I think it’s a perfectly reasonable response to take Ukrainian air defence success numbers with a grain of salt, it is however astonishingly naive to believe that Russia is carefully targeting all these strikes at military installations to minimise civilian casualties. A charitable explanation is that Russia is attempting to do that but is too incompetent and incapable to manage it but frankly if you’re hurling missiles at cities and you know you can’t precision target worth a poo poo then that’s pretty much just as bad as doing it indiscriminately.

Slavvy posted:

You didn't look at the leaks did you

AnimeIsTrash posted:

she slava on my ukraini till i bandera

Frosted Flake posted:

This is a bigger problem than people realize as, for example, I had a recent presentation on International Relations that was premised on Russia being defeated, American hegemony maintained and “so-called ‘multipolarity’” being a Chinese fantasy that may lead them to making the same strategic mistake and being defeated in Taiwan. The conclusion being that both countries need to be reintegrated into the Rules Based International Order graciously.

Now I’m not at the heights of policy or anything lol but you can see how Ukraine being defeated is unacceptable - beyond you know, being embarrassed.

How many other things are premised on the narrative that’s not only been built up but officially absorbed? How many organizations have built that into their planning? Probably at least some important ones. Probably some decisions vis a vis Taiwan have been made under the belief that Russia has been set back to 2007, if not 1991-89, by Ukraine.

e: For example, whatever version of F-16 Taiwan wants to buy was mentioned as likely being decisive to deterring or defeating a Chinese PRC cross strait invasion because of the expectation of how much damage Ukraine will do when they get their F-16s. Again, this is people loving around in out little bubble away from the levers of power, but you can see how each one of those conjectures are spoken of as fact pretty much anywhere a reasonable person would go to be informed.

Slavvy posted:

We literally do have accurate SAM information from the leaks

Horizon Burning posted:

i recently sat in on something about "gender, peace, and security" and it was about building "gender-inclusive ways to deliver peace and security globally." drone bombing weddings in the middle east but wokishly, i guess

FirstnameLastname posted:

saving this post for the inevitable bill maher kanye interview where this actually happens

FirstnameLastname posted:

https://www.the-sun.com/entertainment/8236728/fans-concerned-kanye-west-police-shirt-new-photos/ we're getting closer already

gradenko_2000 posted:

quote:

Added “Black Clouds Cover Over the Ruins”, "Cossacks Were Riding", “Ked my pryishla karta (This is the Map)”, "Long Live, Free Ukraine", "Oh, Grow You Dry Oak“, “Oh, On the Mountain the Reapers are Harvesting”, “Oi, vydno selo (Oh, You Can See the Village)”, "There's a Willow in the Field" for Ukraine.

quote:

Russia’s defence ministry said that Ukraine attacked Moscow with eight drones but all were either shot down or suppressed using electronic warfare systems that had caused them to navigate away from their targets.

The rare attack on the Russian capital caused “minor” damage to buildings and no casualties, the city’s mayor said.

euphronius posted:

more USA students died from guns than USA troops last year

Slavvy posted:

We literally do have accurate SAM information from the leaks

OhFunny posted:

Russian defence ministry says 8 drones involved in Moscow attack

Retaliatory drone strikes on Moscow this morning.

Mr Teatime posted:

I think it’s a perfectly reasonable response to take Ukrainian air defence success numbers with a grain of salt, it is however astonishingly naive to believe that Russia is carefully targeting all these strikes at military installations to minimise civilian casualties. A charitable explanation is that Russia is attempting to do that but is too incompetent and incapable to manage it but frankly if you’re hurling missiles at cities and you know you can’t precision target worth a poo poo then that’s pretty much just as bad as doing it indiscriminately.