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Obviously I don't want the GOP to control the Senate, but holy poo poo would it be nice to never have to hear or think about Manchin again.
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May 31, 2023 19:07
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Obviously I'm pissing in the wind here but I hope if Manchin does lose that Sinema gets the loving message about trying to appease the "middle."
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May 31, 2023 19:09
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Robviously posted:Obviously I'm pissing in the wind here but I hope if Manchin does lose that Sinema gets the loving message about trying to appease the "middle." Sinema and Manchin are in the same class. If Manchin loses, Sinema has already lost, and probably by a lot more
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May 31, 2023 19:10
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Robviously posted:Obviously I'm pissing in the wind here but I hope if Manchin does lose that Sinema gets the loving message about trying to appease the "middle." Probably a little late for that because she has already left the party and there is a 0% chance she wins in a 3-way race.
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May 31, 2023 19:11
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Robviously posted:Obviously I'm pissing in the wind here but I hope if Manchin does lose that Sinema gets the loving message about trying to appease the "middle." e: Oh yeah like Leon said. She isn't even in the party anymore anyway. No primary to lose.
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May 31, 2023 19:11
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Mellow Seas posted:Sinema is up in the same election (next November) so it's likely she'll be on the sidelines already, watching Gallego run, after losing her primary. if she runs as an independent it may hand the seat to repubs
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May 31, 2023 19:16
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Mellow Seas posted:Trump got 77% in WV in 2016 and Cruz was second at 9% so those primary numbers look pretty right to me. I think Manchin survived for so long because as a conservative Democrat he could kind of ride that middle wave as long as he "did good" for WV, but as things continue to be more polarizing no one gives a poo poo about how middle of the road you are and it's you're with us or against us. Republicans aren't going to buy his deal anymore and want someone far more conservative/right wing, and Democrats are fed up with his song and dance and not falling in line with the rest of the party. While it used to be "this is the only way a Democrat could get elected in WV!" I suspect that has changed to "there's no way for a Democrat to get elected in WV" At least, certainly not by trying to middle ground court the conservative republican vote while assuming democrat voters will still fall in behind you OctaMurk posted:if she runs as an independent it may hand the seat to repubs I feel like there was some (obviously very early and preliminary) polling on this that suggested she might actually pull more from Republican voters than Democrat voters if she did that
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May 31, 2023 19:16
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tbf, the Dems have backed indy/GOP candidates before (Utah, e.g., or Maryland governor) but since Gallegos has announced a run the only way I can see Sinema getting Dem backing is if she announces an indy run & then most polls show her as a spoiler leading to a GOP win. And even then Dems would prolly back Gallegos over being neutral in the race or convincing her to run as a Dem.
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May 31, 2023 19:18
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Yeah, I totally blanked out on here being up for reelection at the same time. I honestly couldn't care less if she has an I next to her name but the point being I'd much rather an Ind like Sanders than a Dem like Manchin.
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May 31, 2023 19:19
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There's worries that Sinema may run as an independent and be a spoiler candidate. I'm not convinced that she wouldn't siphon votes from the Republican candidate though. There's a non-zero number of people who would vote for her just because she makes the other team angry and I know which party I'd put my chips on those people being in. edit: OctaMurk posted:if she runs as an independent it may hand the seat to repubs I just don't see it. Her campaign was on being a progressive then she immediately turned around, poo poo on everything and everyone related to that, and started her bonkers "I'm a maverick! Teehee!" schtick. Nobody likes her anymore. bird food bathtub fucked around with this message at 19:23 on May 31, 2023 |
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May 31, 2023 19:20
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Willa Rogers posted:tbf, the Dems have backed indy/GOP candidates before (Utah, e.g., or Maryland governor) but since Gallegos has announced a run the only way I can see Sinema getting Dem backing is if she announces an indy run & then most polls show her as a spoiler leading to a GOP win. I suspect that she has thoroughly burnt that bridge and it's exceedingly unlikely the Democratic Party is going to back her even if it looks like the Republicans might win bird food bathtub posted:There's worries that Sinema may run as an independent and be a spoiler candidate. I mean yeah didn't she say she was actively courting Republicans when she switched to being an Independent? She's still going to try to ride the middle and "be a Maverick" but I think she has pissed off enough Democratic voters and her numbers are in the toilet to the point that most would rather vote for someone else than vote for her as an I
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May 31, 2023 19:20
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I think that all throughout places that used to be dominated by conservative Democrats, there are people who are a zillion years old and not very into politics, who never even "found out" they were "supposed to be" voting for Republicans now. Manchin probably benefited from that, and those voters are rarer and rarer with each year that goes by.
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May 31, 2023 19:20
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OctaMurk posted:if she runs as an independent it may hand the seat to repubs Sounds like she doesn't give a poo poo
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May 31, 2023 19:21
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Willa Rogers posted:tbf, the Dems have backed indy/GOP candidates before (Utah, e.g.) but since Gallegos has announced a run the only way I can see Sinema getting Dem backing is if she announces an indy run & then most polls show her as a spoiler leading to a GOP win. The Arizona party already disowned her and she developed her own fundraising network and never got much money from the party. She's not getting any support from the party, but it also doesn't really impact her ability to run for office much on a practical level - besides the fact that she can't win a 3-way race. She's polling around 15%, so about 2/3 of her voters in previous elections have either been turned off by her or were just voting for her because she had a D next to her name and not because she was a feisty independent.
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May 31, 2023 19:22
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Levitate posted:I feel like there was some (obviously very early and preliminary) polling on this that suggested she might actually pull more from Republican voters than Democrat voters if she did that I've seen polling that showed Sinema as more popular among GOP voters in Arizona than Dems (as of a year or more ago), but nothing for her reelection, so if you can find a link for this please post it.
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May 31, 2023 19:22
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:She's not getting any support from the party, but it also doesn't really impact her ability to run for office much on a practical level - besides the fact that she can't win a 3-way race. She's polling around 15%, so about 2/3 of her voters in previous elections have either been turned off by her or were just voting for her because she had a D next to her name and not because she was a feisty independent. Sinema doesn't have a prayer of winning as an indy but she could (and probably will) serve as a spoiler. Do you have a link to the poll(s) you're referencing?
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May 31, 2023 19:24
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Willa Rogers posted:Sinema doesn't have a prayer of winning as an indy but she could (and probably will) serve as a spoiler.  https://blog.ohpredictive.com/press-releases/az-senate-gallego-leads-in-all-head-to-head-matchups
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May 31, 2023 19:25
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Levitate posted:I think Manchin survived for so long because as a conservative Democrat he could kind of ride that middle wave as long as he "did good" for WV, but as things continue to be more polarizing no one gives a poo poo about how middle of the road you are and it's you're with us or against us. Republicans aren't going to buy his deal anymore and want someone far more conservative/right wing, and Democrats are fed up with his song and dance and not falling in line with the rest of the party. WV was also one of the last strongholds of outright conservative voters still registered as Democrats, which is how as recently as 2016 a lot of Dem primary voters said they were going Trump no wonder who won their primary. Them dying off or switching registrations steadily bled away the benefits of running as "one of the good Dems" there.
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May 31, 2023 19:25
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Willa Rogers posted:I've seen polling that showed Sinema as more popular among GOP voters in Arizona than Dems (as of a year or more ago), but nothing for her reelection, so if you can find a link for this please post it. Nah I'm probably remembering what you are saying there and not polling specifically for re-election, thanks for the clarification. It'd be weird to me for Democrats to turn out in significant numbers for her all things considered but if the Republicans put up a decently strong candidate that got the vast majority of their votes and there were still enough Dems deciding she's OK, then yeah could impact a close election.
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May 31, 2023 19:25
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haveblue posted:Sinema and Manchin are in the same class. If Manchin loses, Sinema has already lost, and probably by a lot more Not really, they're in very different positions. As others have said, Manchin's base are legacy voters who have been voting for him for a long time and are either willing to keep voting for him because they voted for him before, or they haven't realized the political landscape has changed, or they think he's "One of the Good Ones," or whatever else. At some point, probably soon, there won't be enough of those people left to keep him in office. Sinema by contrast doesn't really have a constituency at all; she ran as a progressive and then nuked her base to hell and now *nobody* likes her except people who sell tickets to wine caves. She's going to lose her next election even if it's just a race for dog-catcher.
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May 31, 2023 19:31
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Kevin McCarthy is going all out to try and win back the confidence of the House Republicans that wanted major spending cuts. He's now reversed his claim that House Republicans didn't want to cut Social Security and Medicare and is now blaming Biden's unseriousness about the budget and irrational anti-negotiation position for why they weren't part of the debt ceiling deal. He's promising to start a House commission to generate a new plan to find cuts to Medicare and Social Security that will produce large spending cuts/debt reduction. McCarthy says that talking about cuts is "going to make some people uncomfortable," but it needs to be done now to prevent them from going completely bankrupt* in the future. (Note: This is obviously untrue. Social Security is not projected to ever go completely bankrupt. The worst projection is that it would cut benefits by about 28% for about 40 years with no changes to population or current law.) https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1663935439873404929 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:35 on May 31, 2023 |
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May 31, 2023 19:32
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Not really, they're in very different positions. Or to put it another way, a lot of Sinema's critical demographics are mad at what she kept the Democrats from doing and a lot of Manchin's voters are mad at what he didn't keep the Democrats from doing. Even when they voted the same.
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May 31, 2023 19:35
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The really crazy Manchin thing would be him running as a presidential candidate for the No Labels Party.
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May 31, 2023 19:36
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Not really, they're in very different positions. You're right, I hadn't considered a lot of that, just pointing out that Sinema won't even have an opportunity to learn from Manchin because their campaigns will be contemporaneous and they will learn their outcome within hours of each other
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May 31, 2023 19:38
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Willa Rogers posted:Sinema doesn't have a prayer of winning as an indy but she could (and probably will) serve as a spoiler. It seems quite likely to me that her leaving the party and going independent was a less-than-subtle threat to the party to not run anyone against her or she'd torpedo the whole deal. It seems equally likely to me that she grossly overestimated the amount of leverage she brings to that particular dispute, as well as her own popularity and ability to pull Democratic voters to her side of things.
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May 31, 2023 19:39
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I mean Manchin could still win if Republicans nominate two candidates, both of whom are Roy Moore, and split the vote. That wouldn't be enough for Sinema to win because she would also need Democratic voters to vote for her instead of Ruben Gallego.
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May 31, 2023 19:49
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Kevin McCarthy is going all out to try and win back the confidence of the House Republicans that wanted major spending cuts. That's some Got Dam good leadership there! That's the kind of spine you need to succeed as a leader!
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May 31, 2023 19:57
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In McCarthy's defense, it looks like there is an actual reason he is doing this. He may not be able to provide the 2/3s of his caucus that he promised for the vote and Democrats are saying they will demand amendment votes in exchange for supplying more of their votes. McCarthy is trying to shore up his caucus to get them on board so he doesn't have to make more concessions. He's got to take an "extreme" public stance and promise to deliver something to get their confidence back, but I don't know why any of them would trust McCarthy at this point. Also, commissions are pretty famously where ideas are sent to die in Congress. So, if I were a conservative who wanted major deep spending cuts, I have no idea why I would stake my reputation on Kevin McCarthy promising a commission. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/31/mccarthy-drags-debt-deal-towards-floor-vote-00099410 quote:House Dems discuss demands in exchange for advancing debt bill quote:McCarthy declined to discuss the whip count on Wednesday, or if he’ll need Democratic help to avert the procedural roadblock, but downplayed signs of divisions within his own ranks. quote:Democrats aren’t formally whipping against the procedural vote but expect many to hold out against it, according to three people familiar with the situation. Instead, they’re waiting to see how short Republicans might come up and want to extract something in exchange if the majority party needs the help, the people said. quote:And McCarthy offered another carrot to potential holdouts on Wednesday morning, telling reporters that he would establish a “bipartisan commission” to look into the nation’s spending and debt that would be “looking long-term to solve this problem once and for all.” quote:“If you think I failed you, I’m sorry,” McCarthy told Republicans. “But if you think I failed, I think you’re wrong.”
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May 31, 2023 20:04
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How does he outsmart the Republicans when he's so dumb?
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May 31, 2023 20:15
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I moved to Arizona this year specifically to vote against Sinema.
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May 31, 2023 20:26
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Jesus III posted:How does he outsmart the Republicans when he's so dumb? He does not outsmart anybody. They all want him to be speaker precisely because he is the dumbest.
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May 31, 2023 20:37
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McCarthy is doing an excellent job of reminding Boehner what a great idea it was to gently caress off from the house forever and become a paid stan for decriminalized pot. And that's actually a legitimately serious political assessment, it's not sarcastic
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May 31, 2023 20:43
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
take the top row, allocate the 23% "undecided" ding dong trolls 20/10/70 % to D/I/R accordingly and it ends up 37/19/43 with the R winning. gently caress off forever, Sinema 
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May 31, 2023 20:55
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Keyser_Soze posted:take the top row, allocate the 23% "undecided" ding dong trolls 20/10/70 % to D/I/R accordingly and it ends up 37/19/43 with the R winning. Uh, even if you allocated the independents 30/70, D still wouldn't win so I'm not sure what your point is here.
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May 31, 2023 20:58
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Staluigi posted:McCarthy is doing an excellent job of reminding Boehner what a great idea it was to gently caress off from the house forever and become a paid stan for decriminalized pot. And that's actually a legitimately serious political assessment, it's not sarcastic I wish he would get green-pilled and start lobbying for expunging records of people convicted for weed possession/dealing etc, but lmao
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May 31, 2023 21:01
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DarkCrawler posted:Yeah, and I don't care. Zero sympathy. Hey, man, I figured this post was worth ten of my dollars over to say that, in the spirit of this person's posts, perhaps this website should consider severing their relationship with this poster. Okay, thanks, have a blessed day. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 31, 2023 21:06
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Clarste posted:Uh, even if you allocated the independents 30/70, D still wouldn't win so I'm not sure what your point is here. The point is that Sinema is worthy of contempt because she will spoil the race for the Democrats and lead to another Republican senator in what should otherwise be a winnable state.
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May 31, 2023 21:10
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Probably Magic posted:Hey, man, I figured this post was worth ten of my dollars over to say that, in the spirit of this person's posts, perhaps this website should consider severing their relationship with this poster. Okay, thanks, have a blessed day. we miss you, PM (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 31, 2023 21:10
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E: Disregard this, it was a vote on a rules package, not the actual Debt Ceiling bill. Per the CBS live stream of the Debt Ceiling vote: Votes are still trickling in for both sides, but this doesn't look good.  https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/456/text/rh?overview=closed&format=xml https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmq_6isL-7c E: Wait, no Dems voted in favor? Is Res 456 not the Debt Ceiling increase? Or is this just a vote on an amendment? Velocity Raptor fucked around with this message at 21:23 on May 31, 2023 |
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May 31, 2023 21:17
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Probably Magic posted:Hey, man, I figured this post was worth ten of my dollars over to say that, in the spirit of this person's posts, perhaps this website should consider severing their relationship with this poster. Okay, thanks, have a blessed day. I agree with PM. It’s laughable DarkCrawler got only a sixer with an obfuscated probe reason for “I don’t care if she was raped” and doubling down on it. That should be  at the least. And I’ll eat the probe for posting obvious truths where they don’t belong.(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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