Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
(Thread IKs: Stereotype)
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Soggy Muffin
Jul 29, 2003
https://twitter.com/edgarrmcgregor/status/1663778671809925122?s=20

Lmao, good knowing ya guys

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Complications
Jun 19, 2014

I wonder what those State Farm actuaries think they know, and which markets they'll be abandoning next.

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Complications posted:

I wonder what those State Farm actuaries think they know, and which markets they'll be abandoning next.
Florida and Texas definitely

probably also some places in the gulf coast as they get destroyed by hurricanes over and over, probably alabama after.

depending on how bad fires get in pacnw, not inconceivable parts of WA/OR get dropped

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry
the state farm thing is kinda weird though because they're like the cheapest in the state and like 99% of their liabilities are pre-existing and they didn't announce raising premiums on those, which are by far the biggest risk. also most populace in the state isn't in forested areas and la/sf/sj/sac/etc etc isn't really at fire risk; only a fairly small % live in sierra/foothills/nor-norcal/la-hills. which, to be fair, are definitely extremely high risk but as a percentage of populace/housing stock, it's really small. it would seem more profitable to a) raise premiums a lot, b) zone out segments of the state as non-insurable than a blanket exit on new-insurance only.

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry
anyways I believe everyone ITT knows this but there was some discussion a month back about decreased emission leading to rising temperature. a paper came out during increased warming with falling emissions during the pandemic resulting in decreased solar dimming

quote:

Impacts of clouds and natural aerosol variability

Clouds and natural aerosol variability affect the quantification of solar dimming. We used clear sky observations to avoid the impact of clouds. Pyranometer observations at MCOH were cloud screened as detailed in Supplementary Note 3. We had sufficient cloud-free pyranometer data samples for significance study (nMCOH = 34 for 2020 and nMCOH = 71 for 2018 & 2019). The uncertainty in the cloud-screened pyranometer surface forcing estimated at MCOH is ±1.1 W m−2 (2.8%).

The CERES science team provides clear sky TOA fluxes. We used the level 3 (1°x 1° gridded) CERES product SYNoptic radiative fluxes and clouds, SYN1deg Ed4A version. ED4 A version is susceptible to least cloud contamination and the TOA clear-sky SW global flux anomaly is within +1 W m−2 53. The details of CERES cloud screening are available elsewhere51,53,54,55.

Importantly, we had sufficient cloud-free CERES data samples for significance study. (nSA = 57 for 2020 and nSA = 123 for 2018 & 2019, nIGP = 56 for 2020 and nIGP = 108 for 2018 & 2019 and nMCOH = 34 for 2020 and nMCOH = 71 for 2018 & 2019; nSA, nIGP, and nMCOH are the number of cloud-free CERES data samples for SA, IGP, and Maldives Climate Observatory Hanimaadhoo). The uncertainty in the TOA clear sky shortwave flux estimated for SA, IGP, and Maldives Climate Observatory Hanimaadhoo are ±0.77 W m−2 (1.3%), ±4.5 W m−2 (6.1%), ±1.8 W m−2 (4.2%), respectively.

The natural variability of aerosols (dust and sea salt) plays a vital role in aerosol radiative forcing over SA. Recent studies24,39,56 report the dominance of natural aerosols during the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown and the decline of anthropogenic emissions. Other studies, attribute this reduction in anthropogenic emissions primarily due to a reduction in fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector22,36. Interestingly, no major dust events or amplification of dust transport is reported over SA during MAM-2020. We consider 2020 a normal year for natural aerosols compared to the reference period. However, the surface brightening reported in this study during MAM 2020 is the net effect of demasking of anthropogenic and natural aerosols during the lockdown.

quote:

shows that the concentrations of polluting short-lived air particles decreased significantly, while the concentrations of longer-lived greenhouse gases were barely affected in the air mass over South Asia. The cooling effect of the aerosols comes from the fact that they reflect incoming solar radiation back into space. With a lower aerosol content, there is less cooling, and thus less "masking" of the warming effect of the significantly longer-lived climate gases. Measurements taken at the same time over the northern Indian Ocean revealed a seven percent increase in solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface, thus increasing temperatures.

The results show that a complete phasing out of fossil fuel combustion in favor of renewable energy sources with zero emissions could result in rapid "unmasking" of aerosols, while greenhouse gases linger.

"During a couple of decades, emission reductions risk leading to net climate warming due to the 'masking' effect of air particles, before the temperature reduction from reduced greenhouse gas emissions takes over. But despite an initial climate warming effect, we obviously still urgently need a powerful emission reduction," says Örjan Gustafsson.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
my dog died today and I’m sad about it, so I came to this thread to cheer myself up

Just a Moron
Nov 11, 2021


I don't know how to tell you this Edgar, but no one gives a gently caress about 0.4 degrees F lmao

BrotherJayne
Nov 28, 2019

Stereotype posted:

my dog died today and I’m sad about it, so I came to this thread to cheer myself up

Sorry to hear that bud, the price of friendship is pain

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
Condolences. It's a good feeling at least to know that you gave another being a nice life, especially in a world where most animals are lucky to even survive

Cold on a Cob
Feb 6, 2006

i've seen so much, i'm going blind
and i'm brain dead virtually

College Slice

Stereotype posted:

my dog died today and I’m sad about it, so I came to this thread to cheer myself up

sorry about your dog stereotype

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Stereotype posted:

my dog died today and I’m sad about it, so I came to this thread to cheer myself up

that sucks homie. sorry for your loss. it is so hard every time

MLK Ultra
Mar 9, 2021


Stereotype posted:

my dog died today and I’m sad about it, so I came to this thread to cheer myself up

i'm sorry about your pupper. my dad had a sudden and very terminal cardiac arrest at the start of the month. that isn't one-upping: only really lovely people 1-up-man grief. just saying i've had a pretty lovely month too and i'm sorry your month went lovely in the same way.

also i love your profile picture. at one point i went from bizdev for... some really lovely people over to print media and i used to say, "i used to steal chickens. now i'm a newspaper man" a lot. i hope the rest of this weeks sucks less for you, posting friend.

Communist Thoughts
Jan 7, 2008

Our war against free speech cannot end until we silence this bronze beast!


Just a Moron posted:

I don't know how to tell you this Edgar, but no one gives a gently caress about 0.4 degrees F lmao

Yeah seriously lol

Imagine the mass panic if we let slip that things were getting warmer

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006


lmao my mom sent me this article because she is trying to convince me there is hope for the future. like the barriers to decarbonization aren’t even technological. this would be irrelevant even if it was real

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Xaris posted:

anyways I believe everyone ITT knows this but there was some discussion a month back about decreased emission leading to rising temperature. a paper came out during increased warming with falling emissions during the pandemic resulting in decreased solar dimming



https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6

Thank you for posting this.

From the introduction:

quote:

Based on the collective understanding of the relative role of GHGs and aerosols on the radiative forcing of climate change, the IPCC report1 summarizes that the change in the radiative forcing from pre-industrial period to the present following the increase of all greenhouse gases is +4.1 W m−2 (±0.8 W m−2) with CO2 forcing contributing 2.1 W m−2 and non-CO2 forcing 2.0 W m−2.The estimated forcing due to the increase in aerosols is −1.4 W m−2 and spans a much wider range in uncertainty (0 to −2.8 W m−2)1,2. Direct observational data on this aerosol masking effect is lacking.
...

From the discussion:

quote:

...
The second implication concerns the science of aerosol radiative forcing. The 18% decrease in the columnar aerosol loading, revealed by the large-scale geophysical perturbation experiment resulting from the COVID-19 shutdown, led to an increase in radiative forcing by 1.4 W m−2 when averaged over SA for the springtime (Table 1). This is about three-fourths of the CO2 induced radiative forcing of 1.8 W m−2 2. If this were to happen over wide scales, as we would expect from a 100% switchover from fossil fuels to zero-emission renewables, the net radiative heating would increase drastically.
Looks like the IPCC was right.

Also the pollution aerosol effects are huge. A ~7% reduction in surface brightness, and a change in radiative forcing rate canceling two-thirds the effect from cumulative man-made carbon emissions.

Nocturtle has issued a correction as of 11:12 on Jun 1, 2023

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
thanks guys :unsmith: your nice posts mean a lot to me, we are all in this together.

MLK sorry about your dad :/ death and grief are hard

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
imagine how sad it’ll be when every living thing on earth dies when the biosphere collapse really starts to accelerate and we turn the planet into Venus. way sadder

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
Yeah but things aren't that bad, yet

Chin up!

500excf type r
Mar 7, 2013

I'm as annoying as the high-pitched whine of my motorcycle, desperately compensating for the lack of substance in my life.

Microplastics posted:

Yeah but things aren't that bad, yet

Chin up!

Yeah have you heard about this new carbon capture facility...

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
I heard Stereotype sequestered some carbon today so that's something.

Goa Tse-tung
Feb 11, 2008

;3

Yams Fan

Microplastics posted:

I heard Stereotype sequestered some carbon today so that's something.
fucl you get out

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
Hey I already offered condolences I thought he'd appreciate a joke

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

DynamicSloth posted:

https://twitter.com/CBCbrief/status/1663938546837917697
And I will subtitle my article "I was motivated by the climate crisis facing our world"

lol electric cars are not usable unless you own a private home with a garage or driveway, which excludes something like 40% of the North American population

they're a toy for rich people

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
sequester yourself beeeach

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

smoobles posted:

lol electric cars are not usable unless you own a private home with a garage or driveway, which excludes something like 40% of the North American population

they're a toy for rich people

all cars are toys for rich people

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

MightyBigMinus posted:

all cars are toys for rich people

well not exactly, they also gatekeep the economy/survival for 90% of americans lmao!

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

Nocturtle posted:

Thank you for posting this.

From the introduction:

From the discussion:

Looks like the IPCC was right.

Also the pollution aerosol effects are huge. A ~7% reduction in surface brightness, and a change in radiative forcing rate canceling two-thirds the effect from cumulative man-made carbon emissions.

hence why everyone had to go back to work asap, poo poo would of spiraled out of control too fast if the planet treated the pandemic properly

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe

0.4 degrees is a massive increase in energy for such a tremendous volume of water

lol, lmao

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

hell yeah sounds like beach weather to me

Griz
May 21, 2001


smoobles posted:

lol electric cars are not usable unless you own a private home with a garage or driveway, which excludes something like 40% of the North American population

they're a toy for rich people

you also have to pay an electrician to set up a 240v dedicated circuit if you want reasonable charging times. using a regular outlet takes 2 days to go from 0 to 80%

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Microplastics posted:

I heard Stereotype sequestered some carbon today so that's something.

I laughed but also goddamn you

Stereotype posted:

imagine how sad it’ll be when every living thing on earth dies when the biosphere collapse really starts to accelerate and we turn the planet into Venus. way sadder

will it, though? sadness is an emotion experienced by living things. if everything capable of grief is gone, then there is no suffering and isn’t that a good thing!?

Gravid Topiary
Feb 16, 2012

Stereotype posted:

my dog died today and I’m sad about it, so I came to this thread to cheer myself up

sorry about your dog stereotype :(

this looks pretty bad actually:

Cold on a Cob
Feb 6, 2006

i've seen so much, i'm going blind
and i'm brain dead virtually

College Slice

Griz posted:

you also have to pay an electrician to set up a 240v dedicated circuit if you want reasonable charging times. using a regular outlet takes 2 days to go from 0 to 80%

a friend of mine that's gung ho on EVs said there's no way most cities can even have half the people have those installed in their houses because the local grids are not set up for it. like not impossible but on top of the thousands the homeowner has to spend to set them up the utilities would also have to upgrade a lot of things at significant cost.

idk how true that is but he's really sad about it and says he did his homework on this, so i believe him

e: he did say something about the new low range commuter cars being a good compromise tho and not requiring the 240V circuit. i'm parroting what he said though, my dream is to move somewhere with decent transit again and just park my car for most of the time

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

https://twitter.com/Whateverdude77/status/1664147493175840768

Engorged Pedipalps
Apr 21, 2023

Cup Runneth Over posted:

quote:

I looked forward to driving a car that did not emit pollution or run on fossil fuel

Maybe stop driving altogether binch. How's that for a lifestyle decision

This sentiment drives me crazy

Electric cars still ultimately generate emissions and burn fossil fuels. Moving your emissions further up the chain does not eliminate them! You're just offloading the cost onto the infrastructure

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.



drat, never thought of that

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


Engorged Pedipalps posted:

This sentiment drives me crazy

Electric cars still ultimately generate emissions and burn fossil fuels. Moving your emissions further up the chain does not eliminate them! You're just offloading the cost onto the infrastructure

see: offshoring industrial production

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Nocturtle posted:

Thank you for posting this.

From the introduction:

From the discussion:

Looks like the IPCC was right.

Also the pollution aerosol effects are huge. A ~7% reduction in surface brightness, and a change in radiative forcing rate canceling two-thirds the effect from cumulative man-made carbon emissions.

And


Both tie back to this tweet from March: https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1633566568528375811

The removal of sulphur emissions from ships and drop in associated aerosol masking in 2020 is having massive unconsidered effects on ocean warming. The scrubbed emissions are being dumped below the waterline to directly acidify the ocean instead, so a great 1-2 punch from industrial civilization. :thumbsup:

Engorged Pedipalps
Apr 21, 2023

Xaris posted:

anyways I believe everyone ITT knows this but there was some discussion a month back about decreased emission leading to rising temperature. a paper came out during increased warming with falling emissions during the pandemic resulting in decreased solar dimming



https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6

Uhh so what does this mean? This seems contrary to what we're trying to accomplish with emissions reduction and seems counterintuitive if emissions are the cause of global temperature rising

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Maed
Aug 23, 2006


Cold on a Cob posted:

a friend of mine that's gung ho on EVs said there's no way most cities can even have half the people have those installed in their houses because the local grids are not set up for it. like not impossible but on top of the thousands the homeowner has to spend to set them up the utilities would also have to upgrade a lot of things at significant cost.

idk how true that is but he's really sad about it and says he did his homework on this, so i believe him

e: he did say something about the new low range commuter cars being a good compromise tho and not requiring the 240V circuit. i'm parroting what he said though, my dream is to move somewhere with decent transit again and just park my car for most of the time

the problem with cars is that they’re cars and extremely resource intensive yet extremely low capacity, doesn’t matter what drives them. the only solution is transit but *gestures at the us*

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply