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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)
 
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TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

MightyBigMinus posted:

the curve for the impact of methane is measureable in months. the curve for the impact of co2 is that about 80% of its effect occurs in the first 2 -3 years, 90+% of it by the 5th year, and then it tapers out and takes 10 years to get to 100%. that does mean that we have a cascade of baked in warming always folllowing behind us, but its only about 5 years worth.

in any given year you can marginally increase or decrease the number of dead indians/africans in 5 years.

Thanks for this post. I didn’t know this!

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two-time fee
Jan 13, 2022

MightyBigMinus posted:

you can marginally increase or decrease the number of dead indians/africans in 5 years.

Thread title

cash crab
Apr 5, 2015

all the time i am eating from the trashcan. the name of this trashcan is ideology


MightyBigMinus posted:

this is completely wrong.

this is a failure both to understand the science of ghg induced warming, and a failure to empathize with the global south that will feel the impact of our sucess or failure in REAL TIME. year by year. every year. the marginal tens of thousands of people that die or dont will be because of the marginal gigatons we emitted over the course of the previous ~3 - 5.

this is what being ignorant and overly catastrophizing is for. as an excuse to not just do nothing, but to loudly and ignorantly shout at people that might as a way to self-sooth. please stfu.

the curve for the impact of methane is measureable in months. the curve for the impact of co2 is that about 80% of its effect occurs in the first 2 -3 years, 90+% of it by the 5th year, and then it tapers out and takes 10 years to get to 100%. that does mean that we have a cascade of baked in warming always folllowing behind us, but its only about 5 years worth.

in any given year you can marginally increase or decrease the number of dead indians/africans in 5 years.

we wont, but its a social problem not a physics problem. dont ever pretend the science is whats loving us.


edit: a visual


i'm not sure exactly where you got the impression that i have no empathy for the global south since when i say "we" i do mean people in general. like, all of them. i'm cognizant of the fact that they will suffer first and more than people in westernized countries. i do think that people dying by the millions because of the consequences of the climate we have right now at this very loving second is sad and awful, even if we abate that in five years, which i don't feel confident that we will. that being said, the assumption that i was "shouting loudly and ignorantly" at anyone seems more like a projection on your part. i'm not clear on where i claimed that this was exclusively a science or physics problem.

i don't see how i'm being ignorant by assuming that despite the fact that the environment is rapidly eroding around us in a very noticeable way, that some people are still going to fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo, particularly in the western world. like. yes. it's a social problem. a big one. the big one, really, that i do not see changing rapidly and intensely enough any time soon to make a huge difference since on an individual level, i personally do not have the power to change what massive corporations are doing nor does anyone around me. what does "do something" mean in this context?

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe

Just a Moron posted:

To help grasp the scale of this, using 4.18 J/g*C heat capacity and 1.35*1018 metric tons of ocean, this works out to about 1.25*1024 J or 300 teratons of TNT or about 6 million Tsar Bomba detonations.

that's fine. everything is fine

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

two-time fee posted:

I just want more Hubbert bdelloid pics, as long as the energy used in their production is esg compliant.

:sigh:



edit: the bdelloids give me photoshop practice, which I appreciate.

Hubbert has issued a correction as of 21:14 on Jun 1, 2023

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

cash crab posted:

i'm not sure exactly where you got the impression that i have no empathy for the global south since when i say "we" i do mean people in general. like, all of them. i'm cognizant of the fact that they will suffer first and more than people in westernized countries. i do think that people dying by the millions because of the consequences of the climate we have right now at this very loving second is sad and awful, even if we abate that in five years, which i don't feel confident that we will. that being said, the assumption that i was "shouting loudly and ignorantly" at anyone seems more like a projection on your part. i'm not clear on where i claimed that this was exclusively a science or physics problem.

i don't see how i'm being ignorant by assuming that despite the fact that the environment is rapidly eroding around us in a very noticeable way, that some people are still going to fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo, particularly in the western world. like. yes. it's a social problem. a big one. the big one, really, that i do not see changing rapidly and intensely enough any time soon to make a huge difference since on an individual level, i personally do not have the power to change what massive corporations are doing nor does anyone around me. what does "do something" mean in this context?

243 words to avoid acknowledging that 5 != 100

hey where'd you get that 100 btw? could it have been straight from your rear end in a top hat? i bet it waaaaass.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
Calm down, everyone.

Things aren't that bad yet.

Fozzy The Bear
Dec 11, 1999

Nothing much, watching the game, drinking a bud
https://twitter.com/MkBlyth/status/1664346534920462367

quote:

Earth has pushed past seven out of eight scientifically established safety limits and into “the danger zone,” not just for an overheating planet that’s losing its natural areas, but for the well-being of people living on it, according to a new study.

cash crab
Apr 5, 2015

all the time i am eating from the trashcan. the name of this trashcan is ideology


MightyBigMinus posted:

243 words to avoid acknowledging that 5 != 100

hey where'd you get that 100 btw? could it have been straight from your rear end in a top hat? i bet it waaaaass.

uh, okay

cash crab
Apr 5, 2015

all the time i am eating from the trashcan. the name of this trashcan is ideology



oh, sick, but not dead. that's fine

Bob Ross Nuke Test
Jul 12, 2016

by Games Forum

TehSaurus posted:

Thanks for this post. I didn’t know this!

Nah, that whole post is grossly incorrect and conveniently ignores recent papers on the subject such as Hansens "Warming in the Pipeline".

IIRC, MBM is an aggressive electric vehicle and "green" hydrogen stan so it's not surprising they are also grasping at straws in regards to GHG warming impacts.

Raine
Apr 30, 2013

ACCELERATIONIST SUPERDOOMER




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yK0P1Bk8Cx4

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008



Just a Moron posted:

To help grasp the scale of this, using 4.18 J/g*C heat capacity and 1.35*1018 metric tons of ocean, this works out to about 1.25*1024 J or 300 teratons of TNT or about 6 million Tsar Bomba detonations.

hell fuckin yeah

Soggy Muffin
Jul 29, 2003
https://twitter.com/DielFactor/status/1663939243817746432?s=20

It’s always some shithead real estate agent from Florida… can’t wait for +2C when half that state is underwater

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


florida must be made an example of

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Bob Ross Nuke Test posted:

Nah, that whole post is grossly incorrect

aww man :(

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

MightyBigMinus posted:

this is completely wrong.

this is a failure both to understand the science of ghg induced warming, and a failure to empathize with the global south that will feel the impact of our sucess or failure in REAL TIME. year by year. every year. the marginal tens of thousands of people that die or dont will be because of the marginal gigatons we emitted over the course of the previous ~3 - 5.

this is what being ignorant and overly catastrophizing is for. as an excuse to not just do nothing, but to loudly and ignorantly shout at people that might as a way to self-sooth. please stfu.

the curve for the impact of methane is measureable in months. the curve for the impact of co2 is that about 80% of its effect occurs in the first 2 -3 years, 90+% of it by the 5th year, and then it tapers out and takes 10 years to get to 100%. that does mean that we have a cascade of baked in warming always folllowing behind us, but its only about 5 years worth.

in any given year you can marginally increase or decrease the number of dead indians/africans in 5 years.

we wont, but its a social problem not a physics problem. dont ever pretend the science is whats loving us.


edit: a visual

So I see you continue to be scientifically illiterate. You are not understanding the plot you posted. The Y-axis is in units of temperature/(mass of CO2/methane), and the X-axis is in units of time. In other words, it is a plot of the effects of an instantaneous pulse of greenhouse gas over time, after it is injected. The greatest temperature occurs a few years after release, and most of the increase in temperature occurs within 3 years. However, that's the change (increase) in temperature, not the temperature. You are conflating the fact that most of the eventual temperature occurs in 3 years with an erroneous belief that most of the "effect" occurs in 3 years. I can see how understanding the difference is hard for you. The change in temperature plateaus after that, reaching a steady-state of increased temperature only slightly less than the maximum temperature attained. That steady-state continues for a long time, a long time measured in many lifetimes, not a few years.

Now that we've got that sorted, do you want to go into how you think electric cars are a good idea, or how nuclear power is a bad idea again? If I may speak for everyone ITT, we'd love to hear your insights!

Brendan Rodgers
Jun 11, 2014




Children could read that graph. I honestly don't think MightyBigMinus is too stupid to read that graph, I think they are blinded by some kind of bias.

Brendan Rodgers
Jun 11, 2014




Denial, Anger, Bargaining, many options.

Brendan Rodgers
Jun 11, 2014




Also it doesn't take into account all the different types of GHG, some of them are much longer term than others.

a strange fowl
Oct 27, 2022

i'm sorry about your dog, stereotype :h: pain is the flip side of love, and you gave them a really good life at a time when those are hard to come by

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003

rip dog good dog

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

condolences for the loss of your friend

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

we are totally going to snowpiercer ourselves

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Wheeee posted:

we are totally going to snowpiercer ourselves
No, we absolutely will not have any cool trains.

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

well no not the cool parts, just the bad parts

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Wheeee posted:

well no not the cool parts, just the bad parts
All the bugs, none of the trains.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

don't forget the small children as literal cogs in the machine

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

MightyBigMinus posted:

this is completely wrong.

this is a failure both to understand the science of ghg induced warming, and a failure to empathize with the global south that will feel the impact of our sucess or failure in REAL TIME. year by year. every year. the marginal tens of thousands of people that die or dont will be because of the marginal gigatons we emitted over the course of the previous ~3 - 5.

this is what being ignorant and overly catastrophizing is for. as an excuse to not just do nothing, but to loudly and ignorantly shout at people that might as a way to self-sooth. please stfu.

the curve for the impact of methane is measureable in months. the curve for the impact of co2 is that about 80% of its effect occurs in the first 2 -3 years, 90+% of it by the 5th year, and then it tapers out and takes 10 years to get to 100%. that does mean that we have a cascade of baked in warming always folllowing behind us, but its only about 5 years worth.

in any given year you can marginally increase or decrease the number of dead indians/africans in 5 years.

we wont, but its a social problem not a physics problem. dont ever pretend the science is whats loving us.


edit: a visual


this is wrong for reasons already posted but I'm curious how constructive you think it is to update a few hundred million tombstones with more accurate information stating that people did it instead of physics

Also temperature doesn't equal the climate. It's a variable you are wrong about in a complex system that is already breaking down. Even if you were right that carbon somehow stops affecting the atmosphere after a few years it doesn't really matter when crops don't grow. You can't convince seeds to germinate by telling them they just need to wait 2 more years for carbon to stop working.

Edit: poo poo, nobody give the government this dumb idea. Instead of measuring the carbon content of the atmosphere they would just measure how much carbon had been emitted in the past 3 years and claim everything that existed before that is graded on a curve as only 20% carbon. They could sell it as the largest emission reduction in human history. We'd be at 100ppm.

Rectal Death Adept has issued a correction as of 00:52 on Jun 2, 2023

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Buy your (grandfathered) Phoenix, Arizona dream house NOW: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/06/01/us/arizona-phoenix-groundwater-limits-development-climate/index.html

:downs:

Don't worry, though. Big industry is exempt! :capitalism:

BIG HEADLINE has issued a correction as of 00:53 on Jun 2, 2023

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Buy your (grandfathered) Phoenix, Arizona dream house NOW: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/06/01/us/arizona-phoenix-groundwater-limits-development-climate/index.html

:downs:

Don't worry, though. Big industry is exempt! :capitalism:

well sort of, they have to show they can supply water through a method other than groundwater

starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"
Ethical controlled degrowth is so politically difficult I'd guess it's actually impossible at the scale needed.

We're just going to get savage uncontrolled degrowth instead.

Hexigrammus
May 22, 2006

Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

Stereotype posted:

my dog died today and I’m sad about it, so I came to this thread to cheer myself up

Ah, man. We're taking care of the neighbour's dog as well as our two for the next few days. I'll give the pack an extra hug. Especially the old girl who'll be walking that path herself far too soon.


Microplastics posted:

I heard Stereotype sequestered some carbon today so that's something.

This confirms my suspicion that this thread is turning some of us into ecological palliative care nurses, complete with the sense of humour.

We've been on this property long enough that there are a lot of little graves in the orchard now. The next time I find myself trudging up the hill shovel in hand I will think about this post and smile.

Jerk. :)

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

starkebn posted:

Ethical controlled degrowth is so politically difficult I'd guess it's actually impossible at the scale needed.

We're just going to get savage uncontrolled degrowth instead.
It is perhaps possible in a world that has overthrown capitalism and shaken off all of it's social and cultural structures, but that sure as poo poo ain't happening on the timescale required here so savage uncontrolled degrowth it shall be

The Demilich
Apr 9, 2020

The First Rites of Men Were Mortuary, the First Altars Tombs.



Brendan Rodgers posted:

Children could read that graph. I honestly don't think MightyBigMinus is too stupid to read that graph, I think they are blinded by some kind of bias.

What? No way, if that were true they'd be flying off the handle like an illiterate dumba-

MightyBigMinus posted:

243 words to avoid acknowledging that 5 != 100

hey where'd you get that 100 btw? could it have been straight from your rear end in a top hat? i bet it waaaaass.

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
i get the urge to really want to hold humanity accountable and not just blame inescapable science for our problems but nobody suggested that is the case and it wouldn't matter anyway

People are saying the global problem is in motion in such a way that no mitigations now to the emitting we have already done will change the next 10-20+ years of impacts from those emissions in any meaningful way. If anyone reads into that and sees "Science is the problem not us, kick back and roll coal boys" then that's probably projection.

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

it wouldn't be a climate thread without an aggressively stupid and condescending epic EV guy

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

starkebn posted:

Ethical controlled degrowth is so politically difficult I'd guess it's actually impossible at the scale needed.

We're just going to get savage uncontrolled degrowth instead.

bedpan posted:

this is Malthusianism. this is genocide. this is doomerism.

Laterite
Mar 14, 2007

It's Gutfest '89
Grimey Drawer

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Buy your (grandfathered) Phoenix, Arizona dream house NOW: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/06/01/us/arizona-phoenix-groundwater-limits-development-climate/index.html

:downs:

Don't worry, though. Big industry is exempt! :capitalism:

quote:

"State officials said the announcement wouldn’t impact developments that have already been approved. However, developers that are seeking to build new construction will have to demonstrate they can provide an “assured water supply” for 100 years using water from a source that is not local groundwater."
...

quote:

"Porter said the change won’t necessarily curtail development in the booming Phoenix metro area, but it could push it towards bigger and older cities like Tempe and Scottsdale. Nor is it expected to curtail water use for industry and manufacturing – an important distinction given Arizona is quickly becoming a hub for advanced manufacturing of technology, including semi-conductor chips."
...

quote:

"Besides conserving water and projects recycling water, Arizona elected officials – including Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat – have advocated for creating new water supply through desalination, where ocean water is treated to remove the salt."

...

quote:

"Desalination is used in some water-scarce countries, but it’s been criticized for being expensive and energy-intensive."

this is just going to mean increased sprawl and an endless run of water delivery trucks

lols and lmaos all around

Laterite has issued a correction as of 02:07 on Jun 2, 2023

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The337th
Mar 30, 2011


MightyBigMinus posted:

a failure to empathize with the global south that will feel the impact of our sucess or failure in REAL TIME. year by year. every year. the marginal tens of thousands of people that die or dont will be because of the marginal gigatons we emitted over the course of the previous ~3 - 5.



how many times itt are you gonna end up telling on your own sense of material comfort and insulation from these effects, while assuming anyone feeling more negativity than your dreams of fleets of EVs saving the world or whatever is also being silly, because they presumably face no suffering like you seem to feel is only coming for some outside population

tons of lives will be destroyed everywhere, even in the US, for everyone who isn't far enough out of the reach of poverty and disaster to avoid getting dragged down when already tough conditions get worse

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