|
*focusing as hard as I can* Drippy Wasserhose-Chutes
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 16:13
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 07:43 |
|
|
saintonan posted:I guess posting 300hr GFS as a perfect prog isn't just a winter thing #LockItIn
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 16:33
|
|
|
1stGear posted:You must have hunted down a wild as hell model because every other forecast I can find has the state in low 90's/high 80's for the rest of the week. the pics are for june 14th and 16th
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 16:46
|
|
|
Skippy McPants posted:You could probably figure out something with air filters and an emergency oxygen supply. But, at least here in California, fire alerts and emergency services are good enough that you should have time to evacuate if'n you don't lollygag until the fire is on your front porch. No point in staying put when you can just hit da bricks. the excavation depth, construction, and industrial grade fire proof air filtration you'd need for even a family-sized fire bunker would run into the millions
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 17:45
|
|
|
AEMINAL posted:Are wildfire shelters a thing yet?
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 17:48
|
|
|
Hot? In Texas? In the summer?
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 18:00
|
|
|
you could move to one of the poles and not have to worry about burning to death for at least a few more years
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 18:41
|
|
|
a strange fowl posted:so many places in australia are like this. many have done nothing to improve their evacuation routes, even though back in 2009 we had a tragedy like paradise where people were caught on the way out. i wouldn't live anywhere that was enclosed on all sides by forest now. but i guess the alternative is like, cutting down all the forests to make more roads, which uh Most likely scenario for us is a southeasterly pushing a wildfire up the ridge and into our valley. The only road out is straight into the teeth of a southeaster, 6 kilometres to the highway and lined with dead cedars. The only positive is that I'd rather die in a wildfire than grow old and get dementia, so there's that. Time to review the evac checklist and maybe buy a couple of those personal wildfire shelters. And re-write the words of O Canada to reflect our new status of "On Fire".
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 19:27
|
|
|
Space Jam posted:you could move to one of the poles and not have to worry about burning to death for at least a few more years This guy forgot about the Arctic circle wildfires smh
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 20:13
|
|
|
very nice out today, cry more doomers. 
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2023 21:29
|
|
|
Where do you people pull all of these fancy model run images from anyway?
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2023 18:31
|
|
|
Wolfy posted:Where do you people pull all of these fancy model run images from anyway? it's wrong most of the time and more innaccurate the farther you go out https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2023 18:56
|
|
|
Oglethorpe posted:it's wrong most of the time and more innaccurate the farther you go out
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2023 19:20
|
|
|
the cool part is they could start getting even less accurate as the earth enters a new climate regime!
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2023 19:24
|
|
|
Skippy McPants posted:You could probably figure out something with air filters and an emergency oxygen supply. But, at least here in California, fire alerts and emergency services are good enough that you should have time to evacuate if'n you don't lollygag until the fire is on your front porch. No point in staying put when you can just hit da bricks. A couple of the people who died in the 2020 Labor Day fires were stuck because one of them had recently broken a hip or something and they couldn’t figure out how to safely transport her, really sad story, once the fire got to their doorstep they made the brutal but correct decision to abandon grandma and gtfo but then the teenager jumped out of the car to go back for her. Just absolutely terrifying. That story stuck with me
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2023 19:36
|
|
|
HashtagGirlboss posted:A couple of the people who died in the 2020 Labor Day fires were stuck because one of them had recently broken a hip or something and they couldn’t figure out how to safely transport her, really sad story, once the fire got to their doorstep they made the brutal but correct decision to abandon grandma and gtfo but then the teenager jumped out of the car to go back for her. Just absolutely terrifying. That story stuck with me  i remember they found the car with the bodies of the grandma and the kid and the kid's dog, who'd draped herself across him to try to protect him from the fire. loving awful.i did a module on wildfires at the local college. we are still relying on an ageing group of volunteer firefighters and people in high-risk zones are still totally complacent and thinking it won't happen to them
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2023 23:52
|
|
|
people's memories are so short. one of the small towns around here that got totally wiped off the map in 2009 had rebuilt and repopulated within like a year. it was popular with rich people and even the ruined bare blocks sold for like 100k. they were advertising it as a great place to stay and raise a family. i read a real estate listing of one that still had the burnt-out foundations of the previous house on it, which the agent described as "the property still contains some remnants of years gone by"
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 00:01
|
|
|
real estate language is loving wild
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 01:31
|
|
|
We're going to spend the next several decades at least subsidizing home insurance in fire-prone California and storm-vulnerable Florida. In Florida, if your house is so risky that no private company will touch it, you get government insurance that's cheaper than the private options cost for less risky houses: https://winknews.com/2023/03/03/why-floridas-insurer-of-last-resort-is-the-cheapest/ quote:For example, Citizens has nearly 1.2 million policyholders. Right now, they don’t have enough surplus money to cover all the claims if another Hurricane Ian came our way.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 01:42
|
|
|
TehSaurus posted:the cool part is they could start getting even less accurate as the earth enters a new climate regime! No, they won't. That's not how weather models work.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 05:39
|
|
|
i assumed that the models were mostly refined by our understanding and observation of the current climate but I’d be happy to update my mental model of models if that isn’t as reasonable fit for climate models!
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 19:39
|
|
|
Skippy McPants posted:You could probably figure out something with air filters and an emergency oxygen supply. But, at least here in California, fire alerts and emergency services are good enough that you should have time to evacuate if'n you don't lollygag until the fire is on your front porch. No point in staying put when you can just hit da bricks. My parent's plan when the evac order came was to wait until the fire was upon them, and then go park in a parking lot as close to the house as possible, and wait until they could go back. There was no plan, at least not one that didn't involve that house. They made no move to pack anything. Lucky for them CalFire was on it and the wind that day was mild. SirPablo posted:No, they won't. That's not how weather models work. I am curious about that. We seem to be entering a climate regime that's fundamentally different than what's come before. But then again, wouldn't a forecast model would just take the current gamestate and extrapolate that out? Regardless of how weird it is the jet stream is that far south or the polar vortex broke out again, it'll still be yeah, given these conditions you'll see these conditions later. skooma512 has issued a correction as of 20:03 on Jun 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 19:58
|
|
|
yeah iirc when heatdome '21 started taking shape part of what caused such a stir is that the models remained largely consistent in their output as we got closer to the predicted dates. the primary issue was that us humans couldn't wrap our heads around what the models were saying.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 20:48
|
|
|
uh its really hazy out, wtf?
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 21:52
|
|
|
RadiRoot posted:uh its really hazy out, wtf? Canada wildfire smoke
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 21:56
|
|
|
I had a string of rainy days in the first week of May, so I planted clover seeds in my front yard as I was working on shifting from a grass yard to a clover yard for the bees. I have not had a drop of rain since then. I think I am up to 27 days and counting. The seeds have all dried out. We have had multiple high 80s/low 90s days before June even started. My plants are all dying. It gets worse every summer. Last four or five years we go through the entirely of July-August-September with no rain. There is no rain forecast for the next two weeks. My yard is changing from sand and clay to a compacted hardpan mess. I was seeing bees, butterflies, and wasps in early May. Now...nothing. It's getting a bit scary.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 21:59
|
|
|
RadiRoot posted:uh its really hazy out, wtf? lol it was hazy out a few weeks ago and I took the dog outside and I was like "huh, smells like an electrical fire" so I checked my AC unit and stuff around the house and everything was normal. then I got a text from the county emergency line saying "don't go outside, the recycling plant is on fire" lmao
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:02
|
|
|
SKULL.GIF posted:Canada wildfire smoke never saw it this bad before 
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:02
|
|
|
SchrodingersCat posted:I had a string of rainy days in the first week of May, so I planted clover seeds in my front yard as I was working on shifting from a grass yard to a clover yard for the bees. a few years ago we used to get junebugs and fireflys and no we dont' which is uh.. concerning
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:03
|
|
|
RadiRoot posted:never saw it this bad before It was really bad yesterday up here in Green Bay and almost all cleared-up today, must've taken a little while to move further south/east.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:04
|
|
|
Pepe Silvia Browne posted:haha it's like we made the planet too hot to live on or something haha
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:09
|
|
|
Laterite posted:yeah iirc when heatdome '21 started taking shape part of what caused such a stir is that the models remained largely consistent in their output as we got closer to the predicted dates. the primary issue was that us humans couldn't wrap our heads around what the models were saying. Correct. It was very well forecasted by weather models at pretty extended ranges (10-14 days prior). Weather models take the current state of the atmosphere (and other things like soil moisture, ice cover, sea surface temperatures) and project forward using physics. Unless the basic underlying physics are changing, which would have tremendous implications for our universe, the state of the climate doesn't matter.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:18
|
|
|
leave us alone canada
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:49
|
|
|
sorry!
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:51
|
|
|
spacemang_spliff posted:a few years ago we used to get junebugs and fireflys and no we dont' which is uh.. concerning They are all down at my place, having a good time. I went out for a smoke couple nights ago, and the entire yard was pulsing with firefly's. I went down into the hollow in my front yard and man everything was glowing. I haven't seen them this thick in years.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 22:59
|
|
|
Sushi The Kid posted:They are all down at my place having a good time. They're all just out of frame, glowing too.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 23:09
|
|
|
Oglethorpe posted:leave us alone canada Sorry, eh?
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2023 23:13
|
|
|
SirPablo posted:Weather models take the current state of the atmosphere (and other things like soil moisture, ice cover, sea surface temperatures) and project forward using physics. Unless the basic underlying physics are changing, which would have tremendous implications for our universe, the state of the climate doesn't matter. This is helpful, thank you! I’ve been having a hard time squaring it up with the “faster than expected” meme, but I’m guessing I’m confusing climate models and weather models which really aren’t the same things?
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 02:39
|
|
|
TehSaurus posted:This is helpful, thank you! Correct, because weather and climate are not the same thing. Weather is the noise of the climate system. Climate models are also physics based, they respond to long term changes in radiative forcing from increasing GHG. Climate research (typically) is more interested in long-term trends because climate models are run at too low of a resolution to resolve weather (a lot of smoothing takes place).
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 04:23
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 07:43 |
|
|
im_sorry posted:Sorry, eh? Yer out with yer freinds one day and the skyies a bit hezzy but yer bestie is blowin major bong clouds and yeh cant tell if its de weed or de forres fires _______________________________________________________________________________________________/ 
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 04:31
|
|