(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Popete posted:This is completely tangential to the discussion but from your posts I gather you were a tanker in an Abrams previously? Just curious, back in ~2014 I was working at company that developed embedded systems for primarily the U.S. military and one of the software bugs I was working on was for an audio driver that was clipping and as part of the debug process I was given from the customer a bunch of sample audio clips from if I remember correctly an Abrams tanks where it was a female voice warning system. Some that I vaguely remember where lines like "oil temperature high", "radiation fallout detected" and "ballistics solution calculated". Does any of that ring a bell, was there an automated voice warning system to the crew? I just remember spending a few days listening to those same clips over and over well working on a fix and I'm curious if those were things a tanker would hear. I was a tank platoon leader and an armored cavalry scout platoon leader from 2001-2003. I had M1A1 "heavies" in Korea, M1A2s in the US, and M3A2 ODS Bradley's in the US and in Iraq. I'm very familiar with the tanks and IFVs Ukraine is getting from the US. We didn't have audio voice warnings when I was in.
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Jun 3, 2023 12:41
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With the drone attack on Moscow and flashy incursions by RVC, not a lot is being said about the town of Shebekino in Belgorod region. For the past couple of weeks it's been under increasingly intensive shelling. There were occasional strikes before, but now they happen almost daily. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-bryansk-governor-says-border-village-shelled-ukraine-2023-06-02/ According to BBC Russia, there's no electricity, water, or mobile service in the town, and a lot of buildings are badly damaged. Russian officials have only now started evacuating people, but all public discontent seems to be aimed solely at Ukrainians with appeals to Putin and regional government to help.
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Jun 3, 2023 12:46
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For what it's worth, the cit team doesn't believe that the border incursions will drive deployment changes. https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jun-1-2 quote:As we reported in our previous sitrep, a new attempt to break through into the territory of the Belgorod region by the Russian Volunteer Corps took place on Jun. 1. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, around 4:00 a.m., an artillery shelling of the Shebekino border checkpoint began, which lasted for an hour. After that, an attempt was made to penetrate the Russian territory by a sabotage and reconnaissance group consisting of three armored combat vehicles and four pickups. In response, Russian forces opened retaliatory artillery fire, allegedly preventing the sabotage and reconnaissance group from infiltrating Russian territory and disposing of all attackers. At 6:00 a.m., a second attempt was made, reportedly involving five tanks, four armored vehicles, seven pickups, and one KAMAZ truck, but it was also suppressed. I think if the incursions continue to be at the scale of a few groups of men in cars, there's no real risk of them being able to hold ground in the region which limits the scale of the response necessary.
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Jun 3, 2023 12:52
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It seems a bit more serious than a border incursion now, it's a city of 40k people
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Jun 3, 2023 12:53
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There have been a lot of unrealistic peace plans proposed, but have any involved Russia paying reparations? The pro-Russia plans tend to be "Give East Ukraine to Russia", and the pro-Ukraine plans tend to be "Russia GTFO". I guess I'm surprised Zelensky isn't asking for more than he thinks he'd get, but maybe that talk would just be a waste of time so he doesn't talk about a peace plan much.
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Jun 3, 2023 15:09
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I don't think Zelensky is saying that Russia getting out is all they want from a negotiated end to the war, just that it's a precondition for Ukraine to even be willing to sit down for peace talks. Whether Russia gets out voluntarily or gets shown the door by the Ukrainian military doesn't matter for that.
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Jun 3, 2023 15:50
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Aertuun posted:Is this one of those questions where we accidentally leak classified info. lol I hope not, I was not in a high level position just a fresh college grad so I doubt they were letting me see/hear anything that interesting. Ynglaur posted:I was a tank platoon leader and an armored cavalry scout platoon leader from 2001-2003. Ah ok, I could be misremembering what it was for exactly or perhaps it was something they added later on.
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Jun 3, 2023 15:52
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StumblyWumbly posted:There have been a lot of unrealistic peace plans proposed, but have any involved Russia paying reparations? That’s probably less realistic than Russia just giving back Crimea, short of some very specific definition of reparation like calling it a reparation to return some of the kids Russia resettled and refuses to return to their families. I doubt whatever eventual managed settlement arises includes reparations.
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Jun 3, 2023 15:53
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There's little point in making some kind of Yalta declaration, Ukraine has only leverage against Russia as far as they can throw them i.e. they won't be conquering Moscow in two years. Ukraine's allies could set conditions for lifting sanctions, such as reparations and war crime investigations, but they also are unlikely to go anywhere unless there is a complete regime change in Russia.
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Jun 3, 2023 15:58
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StumblyWumbly posted:There have been a lot of unrealistic peace plans proposed, but have any involved Russia paying reparations? There have been threats to keep the several hundred billion in Russian assets the western powers froze if Russia continues it's war. These would essentially be reparations, although they're aimed more at bringing Russia to the table, so it's not clear how serious they are.
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Jun 3, 2023 16:15
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I wouldn't judge the future of armor based on its use by Russian Forces in this war. From day one, I've seen so much footage of single tanks driving alone through open terrain and contested cities. I'm only a former Abrams gunner and now an engineer with experience working on AFVs, but I cannot imagine an American officer ordering these kinds of missions without getting severe punishment in turn. Tanks are a powerful force when coordinated, but can be absolutely useless when alone.Antigravitas posted:When people talk about infantry screens for tanks, they typically mean infantry that is hundreds of meters away from the tank in question. The modern battlefield is sparse and displaced. There's a lot in this post that I like. For infantry screens, yes. Let's not forget that tanks can deliver accurate fire over the range of several kilometers. Thermal optics (proper cooled ones that are standard on modern tanks at least) can spot heat signatures from kilometers away. Tanks shouldn't be running blind, completely unaware of forces armed to the teeth with all manners of handheld or deployable anti-tank munitions. Infantry and tanks do not and should not need to be bunched up as the popular imagination pictures it, or working alone as we've observed in Ukraine. Agreed also when it comes to basic coordination and safety. Also good point on anti-tank weaponry. One thing that gets lost in these discussions is that these modern ATGM systems are heavy, and you can't carry much ammunition for them. If armor and infantry are working together and are able to spot and engage anti-tank elements, then being able to engage them puts them in a bad position. An AT crew under fire with lots of heavy, difficult-to-reload equipment and only a handful of missiles is going to have a difficult time easily engaging you if they're under fire. This has been true since WW2, where AT cannon crews were extremely useful up until the situation became untenable, whereby they'd just abandon their guns and run away. The same would go for a Stugna/Kornet/TOW crew. There are also peculiarities when it comes to Ukraine in terms of just how much anti-tank weaponry was distributed and how we don't really talk about how well Ukraine acted as opposed to how poorly Russia performed that allowed Ukrainian infantry to cause such destruction as we saw in the defense of Kyiv.
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Jun 3, 2023 16:34
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"A Case Study in Failure" is a pretty good thread title
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Jun 3, 2023 17:35
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Vaginaface posted:"A Case Study in Failure" is a pretty good thread title It'd be a nice ban me honeypot
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Jun 3, 2023 17:45
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“2nd best army in Ukraine” is a pretty great low key burn.
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Jun 3, 2023 18:11
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I don't know if I would have Indonesia chairing a "so you've been invaded by your massive neighbor" solutions committee.
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Jun 3, 2023 18:11
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Meanwhile in Russia... https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1664959992225493001
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Jun 3, 2023 18:29
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Look, she's a very real person and should be taken seriously and is absolutely not in the pocket of russia and doing their mindless bidding. Hope she enjoys her Lada.
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Jun 3, 2023 18:55
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:There are also peculiarities when it comes to Ukraine in terms of just how much anti-tank weaponry was distributed I wouldn't exactly say the heavy distribution of AT weapons was peculiar. Remember that Ukraine basically just got a chunk of hand-me-downs from existing NATO stockpiles - just a fraction of the man portable AT munitions kicking around in case NATO actually had to fight Russia. There were certainly times Ukrainian infantry was pictured hauling around unusually large numbers of those weapons, but that's not unheard of for situations where infantry is expecting to encounter a lot of armor. Admittedly not a thing most militaries on the planet can pull off, though. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Jun 3, 2023 |
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Jun 3, 2023 19:07
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mlmp08 posted:That’s probably less realistic than Russia just giving back Crimea, short of some very specific definition of reparation like calling it a reparation to return some of the kids Russia resettled and refuses to return to their families. I doubt whatever eventual managed settlement arises includes reparations. I actually think Russia returning Crimea is less realistic than Russia writing a check just because it would be such an obvious loss I don't think Putin would accept it. saratoga posted:There have been threats to keep the several hundred billion in Russian assets the western powers froze if Russia continues it's war. These would essentially be reparations, although they're aimed more at bringing Russia to the table, so it's not clear how serious they are.
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Jun 3, 2023 19:24
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Meanwhile in Russia... Shortly after that clip: quote:KELLY: I understand that's your perspective. It's only part of the story, obviously, of what's happening in Ukraine, as children are dying by the thousands and the tapes are absolutely, deeply disturbing and there are very good reasons to see Putin in a very different way, as a villain, as the aggressor and his actions as entirely unjustified. That's not the purpose of our debate today, okay, so I don't... I cannot wait for Tara Reade to tell us the truth about Vladimir Putin. Later she talks about prison conditions in the US, as related to her by Maria Butina. quote:KELLY: I mean, no one would defend that. I got a feeling it's not much better in Russia. [chuckles] They're not exactly known for their human rights championship over there, Tara, I hate to tell you. You may have jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire. quote:READE: The food is really good. And you know what's remarkable about the food is, it really shocked me because no one really talks about this, but, it tastes like it does... food tasted when I was a kid and I was like, what is that? So I asked around and what it is, is they don't allow GMOs. They don't allow hormones, they don't allow any of that Monsanto... anything. beer_war fucked around with this message at 20:25 on Jun 3, 2023 |
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Jun 3, 2023 19:49
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ronya posted:i.e., Ukraine accepts current war borders plus UN peacekeeper deployment and UN administered referendum. A UN referendum is one of those things that sounds nice but is not actually reasonable at this stage. So many people have fled the occupied areas (or died) that the remaining population is totally unrepresentative. For example Mariupol has gone from 425,000 people pre-war to less than 100,000 now. Bakhmut is down from 70,000 to only a few thousand. Pro-Ukrainian residents would have been disproportionately motivated to get out. Meanwhile large numbers of Russians have been moved into occupied Crimea since 2014. There's no practical way to get back the prewar demographics to have a fair vote, even if it were possible to conduct one under Russian occupation.
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Jun 3, 2023 20:30
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Belteshazzar posted:A UN referendum is one of those things that sounds nice but is not actually reasonable at this stage. So many people have fled the occupied areas (or died) that the remaining population is totally unrepresentative. For example Mariupol has gone from 425,000 people pre-war to less than 100,000 now. Bakhmut is down from 70,000 to only a few thousand. Pro-Ukrainian residents would have been disproportionately motivated to get out. Meanwhile large numbers of Russians have been moved into occupied Crimea since 2014. There's no practical way to get back the prewar demographics to have a fair vote, even if it were possible to conduct one under Russian occupation. There's also the really small thing of any too Pro-Russia referendum being immediately vetoed by the US, and any too Pro-Ukraine referendum being immediately vetoed by Russia, so the idea of any referendum happening any day soon is pretty 
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Jun 3, 2023 20:32
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It really makes me wonder if Russia would even take that deal if Ukraine agreed to it. Could they sell that as a win if they can't keep Ukraine out of NATO and the EU?
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Jun 3, 2023 20:38
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:Also good point on anti-tank weaponry. One thing that gets lost in these discussions is that these modern ATGM systems are heavy, and you can't carry much ammunition for them. If armor and infantry are working together and are able to spot and engage anti-tank elements, then being able to engage them puts them in a bad position. An AT crew under fire with lots of heavy, difficult-to-reload equipment and only a handful of missiles is going to have a difficult time easily engaging you if they're under fire. This has been true since WW2, where AT cannon crews were extremely useful up until the situation became untenable, whereby they'd just abandon their guns and run away. The same would go for a Stugna/Kornet/TOW crew. There are also peculiarities when it comes to Ukraine in terms of just how much anti-tank weaponry was distributed and how we don't really talk about how well Ukraine acted as opposed to how poorly Russia performed that allowed Ukrainian infantry to cause such destruction as we saw in the defense of Kyiv. In addition I would like to mention that anti-tank defence was back in the day, and is today, designed to be multi-layered and interleaving for this reason. We have long, medium and short range weapons which vary in mobility according to range, and optimally a tank is receiving fire simultaneously from multiple directions and ranges which makes it harder to react. Blind spots should be covered with indirect fire, mines and obstacles. The heaviest missile launchers should be far enough behind couple of layers of defenses that they can move out of the way if the line doesn't hold. In actual operations compromises will have to be made especially if you are running out of weapons, but that's the basic idea.
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Jun 3, 2023 20:56
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Belteshazzar posted:A UN referendum is one of those things that sounds nice but is not actually reasonable at this stage. So many people have fled the occupied areas (or died) that the remaining population is totally unrepresentative. For example Mariupol has gone from 425,000 people pre-war to less than 100,000 now. Bakhmut is down from 70,000 to only a few thousand. Pro-Ukrainian residents would have been disproportionately motivated to get out. Meanwhile large numbers of Russians have been moved into occupied Crimea since 2014. There's no practical way to get back the prewar demographics to have a fair vote, even if it were possible to conduct one under Russian occupation. Indonesia is hardly a participant so mainly it's an insight into what a large and not particularly Russia/China-aligned country might be thinking, rather than a serious proposition. Prabowo is also running for president so it's a domestic gesture rather than a serious FP one... he certainly did not involve the Indonesian foreign ministry to liaise with Ukraine before cheerfully sharing his pet peace plan in Singapore
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Jun 3, 2023 22:06
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Nenonen posted:In addition I would like to mention that anti-tank defence was back in the day, and is today, designed to be multi-layered and interleaving for this reason. We have long, medium and short range weapons which vary in mobility according to range, and optimally a tank is receiving fire simultaneously from multiple directions and ranges which makes it harder to react. Blind spots should be covered with indirect fire, mines and obstacles. The heaviest missile launchers should be far enough behind couple of layers of defenses that they can move out of the way if the line doesn't hold. In actual operations compromises will have to be made especially if you are running out of weapons, but that's the basic idea. Bolding mine. Doctrinally, this isn't correct. All indirect fires should be observed, and all obstacles should be observed. Now I happen to disagree with this doctrine. I had a very tactically adept company commander in Korea who had the attitude that you should put obstacles everywhere, constantly. He made me a fan of the random single-strand of concertina wire. Tracked vehicles can go over it, but the crew will spend an hour getting it out of the tracks later. It's not fun work. During a training exercise in the US I learned I had held up my opponent's right wing by like an hour just because we'd tossed a single bit of concertina across a cross-roads where two trails met. My opponent was convinced it must be observed because "doctrine", didn't want to run over it because gently caress that extra work, but didn't trust the terrain to either side. The biggest thing unobserved obstacles do for you is they introduce friction in your opponent. Have enough points of friction, and their attack breaks down. Getting past this friction takes practice. That's just one of the many, many things in front of Ukraine right now.
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Jun 3, 2023 22:58
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:There are also peculiarities when it comes to Ukraine in terms of just how much anti-tank weaponry was distributed and how we don't really talk about how well Ukraine acted as opposed to how poorly Russia performed that allowed Ukrainian infantry to cause such destruction as we saw in the defense of Kyiv. I remember pictures coming out of Ukrainian infantry squads in spring/summer 2022 and people with military experience going "huh, usually a Western squad would have one person carrying an ATM system not ... everybody carrying two or three."
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Jun 3, 2023 23:47
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Moon Slayer posted:I remember pictures coming out of Ukrainian infantry squads in spring/summer 2022 and people with military experience going "huh, usually a Western squad would have one person carrying an ATM system not ... everybody carrying two or three." I'll bet the Ukrainian troops trained in peacetime with similar doctrinal standards. The key here is wartime realities often require adaptation. If the enemy is throwing lots of poorly supported armor at your light infantry (and you can't just bomb them into oblivion or overwhelm them with your own armor) you'd better hope your leadership is capable of the minor mental leap to distribute more AT weapons to that infantry (whom you have probably already trained to use them in a Western styled professional military). You can just look at the ersatz tank hunter teams evident in pretty much every past conflict where that has happened.
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Jun 4, 2023 00:22
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Moon Slayer posted:I remember pictures coming out of Ukrainian infantry squads in spring/summer 2022 and people with military experience going "huh, usually a Western squad would have one person carrying an ATM system not ... everybody carrying two or three." I'm honestly not sure what U.S. doctrine is these days on that. Back when I had knees and was light infantry, we had one AT-4 per fire team and one Javelin per squad. This was 2003-2006. Can't remember what we had when I was mechanized infantry (2007-2009) but we relied on the Bradleys to carry a lot of our poo poo too.
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Jun 4, 2023 01:04
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I’m assuming every military is paying attention and keeping copious notes. The US was intensely watching Donbas in 14, so no way they aren’t keeping track of how their fancy toys are working in practice.
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Jun 4, 2023 02:31
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I'm surprised we don't have military observers, at least publicly.
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Jun 4, 2023 02:53
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The thermal camouflage being actually effective is a big concern for the new tanks in the coming offensive I imagine
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Jun 4, 2023 03:43
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Warbadger posted:I'll bet the Ukrainian troops trained in peacetime with similar doctrinal standards. The key here is wartime realities often require adaptation. If the enemy is throwing lots of poorly supported armor at your light infantry (and you can't just bomb them into oblivion or overwhelm them with your own armor) you'd better hope your leadership is capable of the minor mental leap to distribute more AT weapons to that infantry (whom you have probably already trained to use them in a Western styled professional military). I was listening to a US Army expert in urban warfare talk about the Battle of Kyiv, and I think the Ukrainian forces' accomplishments have been massively undersold. Russia didn't necessarily got funneled down and bunched up because they were incompetent/corrupt (though that did play into it), they got thrown into that meat grinder because Ukraine was able to not only successfully mobilize a defense force and blow destroy plenty of bridges, but they also had dam operators flooding rivers and towns. The dam operators were in constant contact with the army and were raising and lowering water levels to give themselves the best advantage. Meanwhile, Ukrainian junior officers were able to utilize the civilian population in aiding the defense, which is not anywhere near easy to coordinate. Dandywalken posted:The thermal camouflage being actually effective is a big concern for the new tanks in the coming offensive I imagine Yeah, that's one of the big ones. If a tank with thermal camouflage is invisible to you and they have the ability to detect your heat signature from miles away, you lose.
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Jun 4, 2023 04:37
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Grape posted:I don't know if I would have Indonesia chairing a "so you've been invaded by your massive neighbor" solutions committee.
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Jun 4, 2023 10:50
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Tigey posted:General Subianto is a deeply unpleasant right-wing nationalist who has a nasty history of abducting, torturing and disappearing democracy activists, leading reprisal campaigns against civilian villages in East Papua, and using irregular (almost "little green men" like) forces to try to crush the East Timorese independence movement. Yeah, the person who'd never allow a plebiscite in West Papua now wanting one in Ukraine.. uh huh.
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Jun 4, 2023 11:20
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https://t.me/astrapress/28718quote:"RDK" published a video allegedly showing Russian prisoners of war in the Belgorod region. The raids may have not achieved any strategic results but ongoing media pressure is sure something
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Jun 4, 2023 13:42
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Well, this is unexpected https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1665361197623803911
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Jun 4, 2023 15:39
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Panzeh posted:Yeah, the person who'd never allow a plebiscite in West Papua now wanting one in Ukraine.. uh huh. A bit of a tangent here, but: a plebiscite was allowed in East Timor; the problem is that Indonesian nationalists thought they would win rompingly because they had bought into their own propaganda that the independence movement had been successfully quashed decades ago and now only remained some loud troublemakers rejected by the silent majority. It was not appreciated that the early 1990s liberalizations had substantially revived Timorese nationalism. When this illusion suddenly evaporated they sunk into either denial or violent retaliation. They were wrong also, afterward, that losing East Timor would lead to a cascading disintegration of Indonesia backed by foreign powers. The main driver of armed intervention was that the Labor government in Australia had initially the same conclusions as the nationalists and thought it could settle a prickly international legitimacy problem where only Australia and Indonesia recognized Indonesia's claim to East Timor - and then got pinned between its left flank and its international commitments when the referendum unexpectedly went the other way. It was not appreciated in Jakarta that the Australian dynamic was that a Labor faction indulged a longtime belief that Timor was a Cuba in waiting specifically* and would not be backing a rollback of West Papua or earlier components of the Indonesian federation as well (remember, Indonesia had annexed East Timor as a US ally, but it had annexed West Papua and crushed the Darul Islam rebellion as a Soviet ally). There would hardly be a John Pilger documentary on the evil of Soviet armed support to Jakarta in annexing West Papua or putting down Aceh. Whilst there was some residual grumbling about Indonesian human rights abuses, none of it would amount to a new status quo of Australian liberal interventionism (instead the next period of Indonesia-Australia relations would heavily feature refugee boats; so much for the concern for Indonesian human rights abuses). So there was not going to be a cascading disintegration. * instead post-independence Timor-Leste has been deferentially pro-Australian, because why wouldn't it be: even after independence it's still next to a 270m strong brooding giant. It will cling to whatever support it can get. Since then Indonesian nationalists have revised their narrative into exit-with-dignity with some sour grapes mixed in, hence the ease with which Prabowo talks up UN referendums. Irredentism over Timor-Leste is remarkably weak. Although it would certainly be hilarious if there is a UN-mediated referendum in eastern Ukraine, backed by Russia, that unexpectedly goes Ukraine's way. ronya fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Jun 4, 2023 |
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Jun 4, 2023 16:05
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fatherboxx posted:Well, this is unexpected Russia getting a taste of their own "Little Green Men" tactic. They should have known that the West could do this much better than they could.
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Jun 4, 2023 16:36
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In Timor-Leste as well, while the Indonesian government is far from liked and it's military is very much disliked to put it mildly, generally people are fine with working and trading with Indonesian companies, and you have Indonesian living there and Indonesian companies still operating. So yeah at the moment you see stuff like this: "thediplomat.com posted:The two countries signed off on several agreements to expand economic cooperation and improve technical cooperation in industry and higher education. They also reaffirmed their existing collaboration in the banking, energy, and telecommunications sectors. Importantly, Jokowi announced that Indonesia was in the process of drawing up a “full road map” for Timor-Leste’s admission as ASEAN’s 11th member state. Most people I've talked to there are far more concerned with just re-building the country and making the sure the next generation has it better than they did rather than keeping up any open hostilities with Indonesia, so they just view the Timor government having these ties to Indonesia very practically. This has been going back to before 2008 as well so it's not new. Harder to see Ukrainian as quickly regaining any sort of political ties with Russia. As much as Ukraine will need resources to rebuild after the war, for as long as Putin in charge hard to see any sort of reconciliation happening.
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Jun 4, 2023 16:37
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