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fatherboxx)
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beer_war posted:
woo poo poo about GMOs aside, are we sure Reade is in Russia? as someone with enduring interest in the country and appreciation for some of the things it produces, NOBODY should be lauding the food
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Jun 4, 2023 16:50
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Young Freud posted:Russia getting a taste of their own "Little Green Men" tactic. They should have known that the West could do this much better than they could. I wouldn't call Russian and Polish irregular forces supported by Ukraine "The West". In fact, having Eastern Europeans do this is probably the most effective.
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Jun 4, 2023 17:00
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:woo poo poo about GMOs aside, are we sure Reade is in Russia? I mean, she did live in the US before, every country is a step up from that (food wise)
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Jun 4, 2023 17:08
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Young Freud posted:Russia getting a taste of their own "Little Green Men" tactic. They should have known that the West could do this much better than they could. How is this being done better than what Russia did in Crimea 10 years ago? They ended up with Crimea and there's no way in hell Ukraine ends up with Belgorod where no one there wants to join Ukraine and have their language banned from schools and all that jazz.
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Jun 4, 2023 17:19
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BabyFur Denny posted:I mean, she did live in the US before, every country is a step up from that (food wise) Ehhhhhhhh nah, this isn't true at all heh.
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Jun 4, 2023 17:20
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Young Freud posted:Russia getting a taste of their own "Little Green Men" tactic. They should have known that the West could do this much better than they could. Border in Belgorod is swiss cheese but I can't see RVC repeating Strelkov's success since their incursions are brief and they are not in the position to take over whole towns (especially with a very hostile population).
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Jun 4, 2023 17:33
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fatherboxx posted:Border in Belgorod is swiss cheese but I can't see RVC repeating Strelkov's success since their incursions are brief and they are not in the position to take over whole towns (especially with a very hostile population). I don't think they actually intend to hold much land for very long. Their purposes are to 1) show people that Putin actually can't protect them and 2) they don't have to put up with Putin if they don't want to. Those ideas aren't going to take root instantly, but will eventually. Russia will seem very solid and united until suddenly it isn't. It's going to be a while before it happens.
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Jun 4, 2023 17:42
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Deteriorata posted:I don't think they actually intend to hold much land for very long. Their purposes are to 1) show people that Putin actually can't protect them and 2) they don't have to put up with Putin if they don't want to. This has been a strategy for Russian army since february 2022, especially in Kharkiv - constant shelling and rolling around small unprotected towns in hope that people greet the liberators. How is that plan going? Why would that succeed with Russia?
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Jun 4, 2023 17:50
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fatherboxx posted:This has been a strategy for Russian army since february 2022, especially in Kharkiv - constant shelling and rolling around small unprotected towns in hope that people greet the liberators. I said it's not going to happen immediately. No one is expecting Belgorod Oblast to rise up tomorrow. Combined with the rising discontent in the country over conscription and war dead, and sanctions deprivations, it's going to add up until people have had enough. If Putin can figure out a way to release the pressure safely before it blows, more power to him.
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Jun 4, 2023 18:12
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There's no regional separatism in Belgorod to work on, so an Ukrainian deniable action would have to invoke armed opposition rather than armed separatism; so it is I wonder if anyone in Kyiv is thinking about how the West must be thinking how Moscow thinks, however. Is this carte blanche for opposition insurgents based in Poland to operate in Belarus or Russia? It's not like the border between Poland and Belarus is razor wire and watchtowers across its entire length either.
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Jun 4, 2023 18:21
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dr_rat posted:In Timor-Leste as well, while the Indonesian government is far from liked and it's military is very much disliked to put it mildly, generally people are fine with working and trading with Indonesian companies, and you have Indonesian living there and Indonesian companies still operating. The whole East Timor campaign, along with the protests against the Contras, was my entry into left politics. It was so wonderful they finally won.
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Jun 4, 2023 18:35
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ronya posted:There's no regional separatism in Belgorod to work on, so an Ukrainian deniable action would have to invoke armed opposition rather than armed separatism; so it is If he wants Putin can absolutely scaremonger about insurgents in every city to tighten his grip on power. Of course even that implies a level of "Normal" after this war that I don't think Russia is going to have
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Jun 4, 2023 18:36
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ronya posted:There's no regional separatism in Belgorod to work on, so an Ukrainian deniable action would have to invoke armed opposition rather than armed separatism; so it is Bel-gorod should be a part of Bel-arus  I would just avoid putting too much into the whole thing. In this massive war these incursions are hardly a side note, like some commando raid in Norway during WW2 which while annoying to Germans and great material for action comics writers, did nothing to stop Nazis from occupying the whole country until German capitulation.
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Jun 4, 2023 18:38
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Deteriorata posted:I don't think they actually intend to hold much land for very long. Their purposes are to 1) show people that Putin actually can't protect them and 2) they don't have to put up with Putin if they don't want to. While discrediting the Russian government is probably a big motivation especially for the Russian fighters, probably the main goal is to force Russia to defend an even longer front, drawing reserves out of Ukraine and opening the way for liberation of Ukrainian lands.
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Jun 4, 2023 18:42
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saratoga posted:While discrediting the Russian government is probably a big motivation especially for the Russian fighters, probably the main goal is to force Russia to defend an even longer front, drawing reserves out of Ukraine and opening the way for liberation of Ukrainian lands. yeah it's this. thinking that this could spark unrest and revolution in belgorod is embarrassing lol
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Jun 4, 2023 18:44
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Somewhat relevant to the current discussion: Meduza is a Russian oppositional publication, but even they have people in their reader base who support the war. They asked them to write in why: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/03/the-only-thing-worse-than-war-is-losing-one Imo, no big surprises here. A collection of the "greatest hits" of war supporters. I.e. "war bad", "russophobia", "I don't support the war but we need to win it now", "amerika did it", etc.
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Jun 4, 2023 18:44
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saratoga posted:While discrediting the Russian government is probably a big motivation especially for the Russian fighters, probably the main goal is to force Russia to defend an even longer front, drawing reserves out of Ukraine and opening the way for liberation of Ukrainian lands. Yeah, its 100% this and I find it a bit appalling that no-one considers that aspect, discrediting the Russian government, an important one. Their special operation is leaking and is no longer contained to just the enemy territory, you should be worried and should start to pay attention or ask questions.
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Jun 4, 2023 18:55
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the kicker on this NYT article from today can probably be extrapolated to lots of belgorod folks https://archive.ph/8r3yO quote:Ruslan, the English teacher, said that he was always opposed to the war, and that his position hasn’t changed with the destruction of his city. But his feelings toward Ukraine have.
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Jun 4, 2023 19:16
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It seems pretty clear that the use of Russian volunteers for strikes across the border can basically be summed up as "They're there, they're willing, it doesn't cost us much to use them like this, and it's an opportunity to poke Putin's eye." Grand hopes for weakening the foundations of Putin's regime via volunteers feels like releasing an ant colony onto a tree to soften it up and eventually topple it - yes, MAYBE, eventually, it might help and yes, maybe it might weaken the tree so that it's easier to cut down, but at the end of the day if you want that tree down in any reasonable timeframe you're going to need a big heavy axe and the ants are going to be a minor contribution at best and utterly irrelevant if the axe isn't there.
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Jun 4, 2023 19:33
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BabyFur Denny posted:I mean, she did live in the US before, every country is a step up from that (food wise) I've been seeing a lot of British Chinese food lately and I'm sorry to tell you that this is plainly not true
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Jun 4, 2023 19:35
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BabyFur Denny posted:I mean, she did live in the US before, every country is a step up from that (food wise) Continue the joke.
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Jun 4, 2023 19:37
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Tomn posted:It seems pretty clear that the use of Russian volunteers for strikes across the border can basically be summed up as "They're there, they're willing, it doesn't cost us much to use them like this, and it's an opportunity to poke Putin's eye." Grand hopes for weakening the foundations of Putin's regime via volunteers feels like releasing an ant colony onto a tree to soften it up and eventually topple it - yes, MAYBE, eventually, it might help and yes, maybe it might weaken the tree so that it's easier to cut down, but at the end of the day if you want that tree down in any reasonable timeframe you're going to need a big heavy axe and the ants are going to be a minor contribution at best and utterly irrelevant if the axe isn't there. Agreed. The notion that these volunteers are going to be decisive in any way is ridiculous. They're one means for Ukraine to cause messes that Russia needs to clean up, like drone attacks on Moscow or factory bombings. These 60 shitheads caused Russia to embarrassingly shell & bomb their own admin buildings in the confusion. A dozen lovely drones likely contributed to 6 embarrassing Russian air defense own-goals. Not decisive, but not nothing either.
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Jun 4, 2023 19:46
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the news seems to suggest coordinated artillery fire from within Ukraine, not some just riflemen and surplus vehicles - it's a higher level of commitment this doesn't necessarily change the interpretation of a principally diversionary attack to draw forces out of Ukrainian territory and back into Russian territory, of course the political cover does remain "notionally spontaneous Russian opposition, however implausible the concept", hence the parallel with LGM
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Jun 4, 2023 19:55
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HolHorsejob posted:These 60 shitheads caused Russia to embarrassingly shell & bomb their own admin buildings in the confusion. Do you have a source for that?
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Jun 4, 2023 19:55
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i say swears online posted:the kicker on this NYT article from today can probably be extrapolated to lots of belgorod folks The classic "I was fine with X people until they affected my way of life." Love that media keeps quoting morons like this. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 4, 2023 20:16
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 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 4, 2023 20:20
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fatherboxx posted:Do you have a source for that? That's what RVD claim, I think, while Russian officials say Ukraine is behind it. Not really possible to confirm it either way, but RVD obviously have an incentive to say the wildest poo poo no matter how unrealistic.
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Jun 4, 2023 20:32
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Paladinus posted:That's what RVD claim, I think, while Russian officials say Ukraine is behind it. Not really possible to confirm it either way, but RVD obviously have an incentive to say the wildest poo poo no matter how unrealistic. When there is a distinct possibility that opposing side of the war had the means and the will to do it, a claim that it was friendly fire or false flag needs some substance behind it.
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Jun 4, 2023 21:07
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spankmeister posted:Somewhat relevant to the current discussion:
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Jun 4, 2023 23:19
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Mr. Apollo posted:I liked all the “I’m from St. Petersburg and I say kill ‘em all!” replies from people who preface their reply by saying they’re against all war and bloodshed. Maybe they were just a fan of the Starship Troopers movie...
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Jun 4, 2023 23:32
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Prigozhin's media published a video with a captured Russian officer. Not an RVD guy, but, like, a regular RAF Russian officer, who Wagner claim was involved in an attack on them. Visibly shaken and with bruises on his face, he says he was drunk and decided to order to open fire on Wagner due to 'personal animosity'. Before that, Prigozhin also claimed that Russian army left mines on the roads Wagner were supposed to take leaving Bakhmut. As always, I'm sceptical it's not all an elaborate spectacle to keep up the illusion of 'a good Czar with bad boyars' to explain why Russian military is not overwhelmingly successful in Ukraine, but it's definitely a new plot development, so to speak.
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Jun 4, 2023 23:41
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ronya posted:the news seems to suggest coordinated artillery fire from within Ukraine, not some just riflemen and surplus vehicles - it's a higher level of commitment I would refer to the excellent geoconfirmed map where you can filter by date by using the white slider and see that Ukrainian artillery strikes have been ongoing in that area well before the volunteer forces started their PR videos. https://www.geoconfirmed.org There was shelling in September 2022 that took out a "factory" for instance. Won't link the video for gore. So I would say that the artillery fire in the area is not new and noteworthy, especially since it is still likely operated by regular Ukrainian forces in the area. But hey, Kadyrov is volunteering to reinforce Belgorod. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1665476257662869505?cxt=HHwWgoC9_aH1-pwuAAAA WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Jun 5, 2023 |
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Jun 4, 2023 23:52
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spankmeister posted:Somewhat relevant to the current discussion: Thought it was strange that all those people read Meduza, but then I remembered about idiots from libertarian or russian nationationalist circles that pop up here and there, hanging around opposition media because thats the only game in town really. They are just permanently pissed at being disrespected and everything not going their way, and write a loving revenge novel when a Ukrainian calls them "rusnya" on twitter. It is shameful that sunk cost mentality and general lack of empathy is widespread but it is at least positive that most pro-war people around (in real life not morons from the article) have come down from copium and are very well into cutting losses and bargaining stage, because the cavalry is not coming. Good to see them miserable. Paladinus posted:Prigozhin's media published a video with a captured Russian officer. Not an RVD guy, but, like, a regular RAF Russian officer, who Wagner claim was involved in an attack on them. Visibly shaken and with bruises on his face, he says he was drunk and decided to order to open fire on Wagner due to 'personal animosity'. Before that, Prigozhin also claimed that Russian army left mines on the roads Wagner were supposed to take leaving Bakhmut. As always, I'm sceptical it's not all an elaborate spectacle to keep up the illusion of 'a good Czar with bad boyars' to explain why Russian military is not overwhelmingly successful in Ukraine, but it's definitely a new plot development, so to speak. This new episode of idiot wagner show is beyond explanation fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Jun 5, 2023 |
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Jun 4, 2023 23:58
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A couple people on Twitter are making vague hints that the offensive has started. We'll see. Thomas Theiner implied that Ukraine may have ATACMS. Again, we'll see. Operational objectives can and will change, but I'll stake a prediction that the primary terrain objective will be Mariupol.
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Jun 5, 2023 03:03
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Paladinus posted:Prigozhin's media published a video with a captured Russian officer. Not an RVD guy, but, like, a regular RAF Russian officer, who Wagner claim was involved in an attack on them. Visibly shaken and with bruises on his face, he says he was drunk and decided to order to open fire on Wagner due to 'personal animosity'. Before that, Prigozhin also claimed that Russian army left mines on the roads Wagner were supposed to take leaving Bakhmut. As always, I'm sceptical it's not all an elaborate spectacle to keep up the illusion of 'a good Czar with bad boyars' to explain why Russian military is not overwhelmingly successful in Ukraine, but it's definitely a new plot development, so to speak. Who is writing this script??? Russian volunteers fighting inside Russia, Russian mercenaries capturing a Russian army Lieutenant Colonel... the latter is a huge claim regardless of if it's true. You just don't go and kidnap and torture a loving brigade commander during a war without consequences. If they can't defend even their commanding officers then what are they good for?
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Jun 5, 2023 03:51
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Ynglaur posted:A couple people on Twitter are making vague hints that the offensive has started. We'll see. https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1665493174633000961 Jose Andres has a lot of charity work on the ground so maybe he is gonna hear something early.
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Jun 5, 2023 04:28
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BBC reported a large Ukrainian forced being repelled, the source is the Russian defence ministry. Anyone else seeing more reliable sources mentioning anything about this? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65806152
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Jun 5, 2023 04:45
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Only that statement so far, from what ive seen
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Jun 5, 2023 05:03
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There's been a lot of geolocated combat footage from the Zaporozhye direction today, but mostly light vehicles. I think this footage is within the border of the Donetsk Oblast.  for combat footagehttps://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1665355615286317056 So evidence of fighting, and pro-Russian sources are posting footage, but mostly of light vehicles so hard to tell the scale.
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Jun 5, 2023 05:19
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A bit of a tangent, but the BitTorrent tracker RARBG shut down a few days ago and the war in Ukraine is cited as one of the reasons. quote:Hello guys,
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Jun 5, 2023 05:31
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