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fatherboxx)
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if it was ukraine, hard to believe they're planning on a follow-up amphibious assault. wasn't the road on the dam one of the only remaining connections across the river, is ukraine supposed to be planning on flipping the battle to recapture kherson only starting with worse logistics? seems more likely someone is trying to cover a flank
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Jun 6, 2023 03:36
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theres a lot of blame being tossed around right now, but the sheer scale of the destruction on a large, concrete structure makes me think it was demolished rather than attacked.
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Jun 6, 2023 03:36
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From what I can tell it's not just the source for the Crimea Canal, it's also the coolant source for one of the regional nuclear plants. It sounds like both sides have reasons not to want to blow it up. Though apparently not enough to outweigh the reasons for it.
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Jun 6, 2023 03:52
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Deteriorata posted:So Russia just destroyed the water supply for Crimea. That's not something you do if you intend to keep it. If Ukraine recaptured the dam or any part of the canal the water was going to be cut anyhow. Crimea does have its own potable water, the canal was cut off 2014-2022, so it's not like they just cut off their drinking water supply--the canal is just for large scale industry & agriculture.
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Jun 6, 2023 03:58
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the holy poopacy posted:If Ukraine recaptured the dam or any part of the canal the water was going to be cut anyhow. Crimea does have its own potable water, the canal was cut off 2014-2022, so it's not like they just cut off their drinking water supply--the canal is just for large scale industry & agriculture. I'm aware of that. My point was that cutting it off is not something you do if you're confident you're going to hold off the Ukrainian offensive and stay there for a long time. The intent of this is to wreak maximum havoc that will be Ukraine's problem to clean up.
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Jun 6, 2023 04:05
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Deteriorata posted:I'm aware of that. My point was that cutting it off is not something you do if you're confident you're going to hold off the Ukrainian offensive and stay there for a long time. The intent of this is to wreak maximum havoc that will be Ukraine's problem to clean up. My bad, I read "if you intend to keep it" as "if you intend to keep Crimea", not "if you intend to keep the water supply they just blew up." I agree on Russia's motives, this seems to be half desperation delaying tactic and half terror retaliation.
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Jun 6, 2023 04:27
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https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/5/25/damage-to-russian-occupied-dam-floods-ukrainian-island-community This is from very recently. Seems there's a good chance this was simply an accident, which would certainly be less psychologically damaging than either side deliberately causing a humanitarian crisis. The Russians blew the sluice gates, Ukrainians shelled it causing further damage, now there is a bunch of spring melt water that can't exit the dam normally (sluice gates are blown) so it's been cresting over the top of a damaged dam. That and the flow of the whole chain of dams aren't really being managed properly.
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Jun 6, 2023 04:27
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I think the larger issue is that this could cause a meltdown since the reactor needs to be actively cooled. Ukraine doesn't want a meltdown and I'm sure they'd prefer to keep their hydro dam in place, so...it's almost certainly russia. Or maybe just stress-induced failure. Either way...
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Jun 6, 2023 04:28
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OAquinas posted:I think the larger issue is that this could cause a meltdown since the reactor needs to be actively cooled. Ukraine doesn't want a meltdown and I'm sure they'd prefer to keep their hydro dam in place, so...it's almost certainly russia. Or maybe just stress-induced failure. Either way... The reactor is supposedly in cold shutdown, which IIRC means there's far less danger of a meltdown related to interruption of coolant.
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Jun 6, 2023 04:32
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1665921747525283841 https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1665925391729532928
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Jun 6, 2023 04:42
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stir up trouble posted:https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/5/25/damage-to-russian-occupied-dam-floods-ukrainian-island-community odds this was an accident are approximately 0.00%
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Jun 6, 2023 04:44
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Herstory Begins Now posted:odds this was an accident are approximately 0.00% Well, not being an accident and not being intentional are not the same things....
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Jun 6, 2023 04:47
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Even if it was an accident, it's too good a propaganda event to ignore. Both sides will absolutely pitch this as a demonstration of the lack of compassion shown by the other (but for my money it was 1000% Russia).
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Jun 6, 2023 04:51
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OddObserver posted:Well, not being an accident and not being intentional are not the same things.... i'd put odds that it wasn't intentional at the same level. if the dam was indeed gradually getting close to failure (something for which there is exactly zero evidence) you'd expect to see regional authorities issuing warnings, evacuations, trying to fix it etc.. Dams having issues is certainly not unheard of, but overnight spontaneous catastrophic failures is not really how modern dams fail. it's also an absolutely monumental level of mismanagement if you somehow can't tell your dam is on the verge of complete catastrophic failure Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 05:00 on Jun 6, 2023 |
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Jun 6, 2023 04:53
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What "regional authorities"? Some evil clown Russians found at the local natzbol convention?
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Jun 6, 2023 05:12
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OddObserver posted:What "regional authorities"? Some evil clown Russians found at the local natzbol convention?  then  this isn't how an administration trying to proactively manage a massive disaster reacts Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Jun 6, 2023 |
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Jun 6, 2023 05:19
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madeintaipei posted:USMC is part of the USN, but yeah. C/D Hornets, not the Super Hornet, which is a substantially different airplane. Australia flew A/Bs.
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Jun 6, 2023 05:35
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Herstory Begins Now posted:
Yes, this is how someone who no one bothers to notify of anything important reacts.
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Jun 6, 2023 05:35
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Herstory Begins Now posted:
2.5 meters?! we're gonna need a bigger boat! Amazing for them to try to claim no big deal to that.
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Jun 6, 2023 05:36
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OddObserver posted:Yes, this is how someone who no one bothers to notify of anything important reacts. yeah I don't doubt that part
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Jun 6, 2023 05:41
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:if it was ukraine, hard to believe they're planning on a follow-up amphibious assault. wasn't the road on the dam one of the only remaining connections across the river, is ukraine supposed to be planning on flipping the battle to recapture kherson only starting with worse logistics? seems more likely someone is trying to cover a flank Actually, there can be some interesting results from this both downstream and upstream from the dam that could make crossing easier. But these are unpredictable, and flooding causes both erosion and accumulation of silt in places, so any amphibious crossing plans need to be updated. At any rate, the dam was going to be unusable for attack precisely because it was one of the last remaining connections. When there is only one road across it's a no brainer to block it, mine it, zero every howitzer on it and so on. Good luck trying to clear and repair a narrow causeway while under heavy fire.
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Jun 6, 2023 05:42
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Herstory Begins Now posted:yeah I don't doubt that part Ahhh, the our disagreement is that you think there was someone better informed around and I don't.
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Jun 6, 2023 05:53
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Are there still civilians living downstream of the dam, or had they already been “evacuated” by the Russians? How fast will the water rise?
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Jun 6, 2023 06:09
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Sucrose posted:Are there still civilians living downstream of the dam, or had they already been “evacuated” by the Russians? How fast will the water rise?
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Jun 6, 2023 06:28
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Sucrose posted:Are there still civilians living downstream of the dam, or had they already been “evacuated” by the Russians? How fast will the water rise? Moon Slayer posted:https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1665921747525283841
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Jun 6, 2023 06:32
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https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1665956258317496323?t=6x6gf6FoIJFuZC-Dhs3cpw&s=19
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Jun 6, 2023 07:06
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There's some people claiming that satellite photos from May show water overtopping the majority of the sluice gates on the dam. I have no experience of analysing satellite photos of dams to know if they're right or not, or whether this would be a Very Bad Thing to be happening. However the breach occurred, it looks to my untrained eye as if the escaping water has gouged a huge hole and torn away the dam foundations. This may have caused the surrounding structures to collapse into it. It's possible this could have been caused by one, relatively small, failure. However the largest dams I've ever built have been on a beach, so it would be interesting to hear from someone with actual qualifications/experience. https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1665905255509291008?s=20 https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1665923803149479941?s=20
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Jun 6, 2023 08:03
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Russian milblogger scum seem happy https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1665965984560164865?t=MurFc9LAOlD5Ufd3R5BiGQ&s=19
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Jun 6, 2023 08:05
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after thinking on it a bit; while it still seems unlikely to me that it was a dam failure, the coincidence of timing isn't so far fetched as to be implausible. It's holding back the spring rains that was really putting pressure on the dam. Even if you assume the dam could've failed in a 3 month period, that's still like 3-5 days out of 90 where the timing would be suspicious. Weirder things happen every day. It's also possible that a relatively minor attack exacerbated existing damage, causing a breach wildly out of proportion to the explosives used. As posters have said though, it's still wild - in the case of it being an accident - that apparently noone was monitoring the integrity of the dam. It's not like the topic of the dam failing has been ignored; the potential of the dams breach or even just dumping water at maximum rate has been brought up repeatedly during the war.
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Jun 6, 2023 08:12
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Herstory Begins Now posted:odds this was an accident are approximately 0.00%
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Jun 6, 2023 09:24
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https://zeitschrift-osteuropa.de/hefte/2023/1-2/der-kachovka-stausee/englishquote:Unfortunately, there is reason to believe that Russia's occupation forces deliberately lowered the water level of the Kakhovka reservoir in the first months of 2023 in order to blow up the dam in the event of certain developments in the war. It is to be feared that this moment would have come when Russia would be forced to completely withdraw its troops from the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. The floodwaters in the areas on the left bank of the Dnipro River, which may not have been completely cleared at the time of the blast, would be less devastating with the current water level than in the event of the dam being destroyed when the lake is at full level. However, the consequences for the people of southeastern Ukraine and the entire Ukrainian economy would be catastrophic. Three power plants, which accounted for 30 percent of Ukraine's electricity production before Russia's invasion, could no longer operate. The existing system of supplying drinking water to some 400,000 people in the Ukrainian coastal area of the Sea of Azov, including the cities of Melitopol' and Berdjan'sk, would be destroyed. In addition, irrigated agriculture, which has been established for decades, could no longer continue. This would destroy the livelihoods of 280,000 to 420,000 people in the agricultural areas of southeastern Ukraine. Crimea would also return to the water emergency of 2014-2022. Welp, let's just leave 400k people without drinking water.
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Jun 6, 2023 10:26
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:after thinking on it a bit; It's blowing my mind that anyone is even remotely clinging to the idea that a major dam on the front line that failed catastrophically right as a major offensive gets underway could be an accident. It's not an accident. The dam was blown, period.
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Jun 6, 2023 10:26
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Double post, oops
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Jun 6, 2023 10:26
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https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1665997969672347650 (Economist foreign correspondent, saw this because it was retweeted by Def Mon) e: https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1666012554349404163 Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 10:30 on Jun 6, 2023 |
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Jun 6, 2023 10:28
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This unbelievably stupid move shows the desperation of the Russians. There was little chance of an attack here but to counter it they've lost the water supply to all of Crimea and destroyed their controlled territory. The western response will be significant, too. We actually enforce red lines, so there will be consequences to this.
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Jun 6, 2023 10:43
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We don't know if Ukraine was threatening an attack here - they've kept their cards very close. And no western leader has made any statements about one particular dam, and compared to the war crimes Russia has and is committing right now it's a relatively minor thing.
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Jun 6, 2023 10:49
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https://www.bt.dk/udland/svensk-ekspert-stod-bag-worst-case-model-om-ukrainsk-daemning-det-ser-meget-vaerrequote:Back in October 2022, the Swedish civil engineer Henrik Ölander-Hjalmarsson handed over a model to UNICEF.
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Jun 6, 2023 10:54
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Vox Nihili posted:It's blowing my mind that anyone is even remotely clinging to the idea that a major dam on the front line that failed catastrophically right as a major offensive gets underway could be an accident. It's not an accident. The dam was blown, period. Some people like to wait for evidence before jumping to conclusions. It's certainly very plausible that someone blew up the dam, but plausible doesn't mean proven. We'll see what evidence emerges. There was a hydroelectric power plant attached/on the dam itself, which now appears to have exploded/has water running through it? I've not read anything conclusive yet as to who benefits from blowing up the dam, other than to cause chaos and a major disaster. If people wanted to flood downstream, couldn't they simply open all the sluice gates? edit: The BBC is reporting that Zelensky is accusing Russia of, "blowing up the Kakhovka hydropower dam structures "from inside" at around 02:50 local time". Aertuun fucked around with this message at 10:59 on Jun 6, 2023 |
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Jun 6, 2023 10:55
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Aertuun posted:Some people like to wait for evidence before jumping to conclusions. It's certainly very plausible that someone blew up the dam, but plausible doesn't mean proven. We'll see what evidence emerges. both russia and ukraine are saying the dam was blown up. currently the 'it just had an accident' is the purely speculative explanation
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Jun 6, 2023 10:57
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Who was in control of the dam before the release? I thought it was essentially no-mans land after the Russians retreated South.
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Jun 6, 2023 10:59
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