(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
Nothingtoseehere posted:We don't know if Ukraine was threatening an attack here - they've kept their cards very close. And no western leader has made any statements about one particular dam, and compared to the war crimes Russia has and is committing right now it's a relatively minor thing. https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1665971118354710529 It really isn't minor, potentially drowning thousands of civilians through an intentional disaster is far in excess of anything Russia has done so far. Maybe not in body count but in the scale of a single action? What even comes close?
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 10:20 |
|
|
Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1665971118354710529 I don't think it's useful to draft the Buzzfeed list of Russian warcrimes, but to date they've abducted thousands of children, raped and murdered their way through dozens of villages etc etc, the whole thing 'is close'
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:03
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:both russia and ukraine are saying the dam was blown up. currently the 'it just had an accident' is the purely speculative explanation
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:03
|
|
|
CSM posted:Of course they are, that doesn't mean it still couldn't be an accident. i'm waiting for there to be even a single piece of evidence that it was an accident
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:08
|
|
|
CSM posted:Of course they are, that doesn't mean it still couldn't be an accident. There are also reports of an explosion so big it broke windows up to 80km away in the early morning. That doesn't sound like an accident.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:08
|
|
|
Paracausal posted:I don't think it's useful to draft the Buzzfeed list of Russian warcrimes, but to date they've abducted thousands of children, raped and murdered their way through dozens of villages etc etc, the whole thing 'is close' The systematic abduction of children for which Putin earned his arrest warrant is of a similar scale, sure. My point is, this is not a minor thing, the audacity of this act is difficult to believe. That's why we've got so many people saying maybe it was an accident. We also have Russian soldiers boasting about having done it, evidence of a massive detonation and the fact that the Russians raised the water levels as high as possible in advance so I don't think there's much point entertaining that idea.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:11
|
|
|
Paracausal posted:I don't think it's useful to draft the Buzzfeed list of Russian warcrimes, but to date they've abducted thousands of children, raped and murdered their way through dozens of villages etc etc, the whole thing 'is close' Basically this. I'm not saying it isn't one, it's just in line with the "background level" of Russian war crimes.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:11
|
|
|
It could also have been aliens, or the mole people.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:11
|
|
|
The messaging from Russia is kind of weird. The only official line is that Ukrainians did it, I guess, but not a lot is said about how and why. Meanwhile, apparently just a week ago Putin signed a law on 'Procedure for regulating relations in the sphere of industrial safety of hazardous production facilities and safety of hydraulic structures in the DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions'. That law, among other things, suspends all technical investigations.Press release posted:Until 1 January 2028, technical investigations of accidents at HPFs and accidents at hydraulic structures as a result of combat operations, subversion and terrorist acts are not carried out Paladinus fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:14
|
|
|
It's become the standard of the Ukranian conflict for lots of people to make incorrect arguments predicated on assumptions of bare minimum competence on russia's part. That just because something was clearly not a great or morally defensible idea for russia (either in the immediate term or in terms of long-term ramifications) in a way we could easily observe, russia didn't do it/isn't going to do it, clearly. Including most notably them turning out to be invading in the first place. By now my thought process is that if an even partially unexplained event is something that would be stupid and bad for either ukraine or russia to have done, (1) russia is pretty much constantly going to turn out to have done it and (2) somewhat constantly going to turn out to have done it on purpose and (3) 100% constantly will result in a noisy burst of comments by russia apologists that weirdly entangles mismatched messages of "russia plainly did not it" with an evolution to "the USA forced russia to do it" with bonus guest star "the USA did it, actually" so it's going to be outside of the trend if anything is the case besides russia blowing that dam on purpose
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:15
|
|
|
Zelensky warned back in October last year that the Russians had mined the dam and might blow it up, but I guess it's just an accident. Zelensky posted:Russia is deliberately creating the grounds for a large-scale disaster in the south of Ukraine. We have information that Russian terrorists mined the dam and aggregates of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. This is one of the large power facilities. The dam of this hydroelectric power plant holds about 18 million cubic meters of water. If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds, hundreds of thousands of people may be affected. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/rosijskij-teror-maye-prograti-ukrayina-j-usya-yevropa-mayut-78613
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:17
|
|
|
TescoBag posted:There are also reports of an explosion so big it broke windows up to 80km away in the early morning. That doesn't sound like an accident. (some kinds of) Hydroelectric turbines tend to blow up big when they do go. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayano-Shushenskaya_power_station_accident Zelensky himself is saying the explosion came from the hydroelectric building, and the footage we've seen supports that. In any case, whether the Russians meant to or not, they are responsible. Unless for some reason Ukraine decided to blow up their own dam, which makes no sense whatsoever. My understanding is that this is a long way from where the offensive actions are happening, but maybe Ukraine was planning an amphibious assault we don't know about. Aertuun fucked around with this message at 11:24 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:21
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:The messaging from Russia is kind of weird. The only official line is that Ukrainians did it, I guess, but not a lot is said about how and why. Meanwhile, apparently just a week ago Putin signed a law on 'Procedure for regulating relations in the sphere of industrial safety of hazardous production facilities and safety of hydraulic structures in the DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions'. That law, among other things, suspends all technical investigations. There's no way Russia would admit to this, they don't even admit to buying Iranian drones. It does perhaps shed some light on the Russian leadership and their opinion on where this war is heading. When they annexed Kherson they evidently thought they would keep it. This act is only something you'd do if you have lost all hope.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:22
|
|
|
One explanation from the Ukrainian side that I've seen is that Russians tried to let out just the right amount of water to spook Ukrainians away from some of the small islands on Dnipro that Ukraine controls now, fearing that those can be used later for artillery support, but something's gone wrong and the dam is hosed now. No official line, as I said, from Russia, but some Z-milbloggers theorise that Ukraine's plan with his is to make it so Russia needs to quickly relocate a lot of soldiers they committed to the area ahead of the counteroffensive, and that can potentially create an opening for Ukrainian to advance, somehow.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:23
|
|
|
This graph of water in the Kahovka reservoir is getting cited as the evidence that Russia deliberately upped the volume - can anyone with some knowledge explain the sudden uptick from April? It is clearly above the seasonal level. https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/L_kakhovka?lang=en
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:37
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:One explanation from the Ukrainian side that I've seen is that Russians tried to let out just the right amount of water to spook Ukrainians away from some of the small islands on Dnipro that Ukraine controls now, fearing that those can be used later for artillery support, but something's gone wrong and the dam is hosed now. There are widespread reports of a large explosion at the dam that shattered windows on people's houses. There's no way to open the water flow so badly that this happens. Also an entire section of the hydropower facility itself is missing so the dam failed breached at it's thickest point. The only real question is did Russia intentionally detonate explosives in the dam, or did they detonate them by accident. Looking at the timing of both the counteroffensive and they raising of water levels immediately before, I'm not sure an accidentally detonation is very believable. Chalks fucked around with this message at 11:50 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:47
|
|
|
I should have linked this in my earlier post. https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665933276647772160?s=20 Shows part of the road collapsing between May 28th and June 5th. On the far left is are the areas of road missing that were presumably destroyed by Russians during their retreat from Kherson.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:50
|
|
|
IIRC that's the bend in the road that was hit by much Ukrainian HIMARS strikes, I don't remember if Russia finished it off, though. It's also a separate mini-bridge on the side, not part of the damm structure.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 11:54
|
|
|
A timeline of Russian messages about the dam might indicate that they hosed up and didn't realise the impact this would have https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1666015265971118082 This does make some sense given the severity of this act and the consequences to both sides.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:02
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:This graph of water in the Kahovka reservoir is getting cited as the evidence that Russia deliberately upped the volume - can anyone with some knowledge explain the sudden uptick from April? It is clearly above the seasonal level. I'm not familiar with the European weather datasets nor have time to. I do deal with reservoirs a lot. I can tell the Ukrainians aren't as razor sharp on water predictions, but regardless, they were maintaining a winter and summer pool prior to capture. That dip in water level in early Winter looks like a large, controlled release. I associate such a release with anticipated gate maintenance. The sudden rise and amount of rise this Spring shows a clear holding back of late Winter/Spring rain water. Most reservoirs in this type of climate top off to the safest maximum elevation in Spring for the Summer (Summer pool), so peaks around this time of year prior to capture are likely that safe point. I'd definitely say they went well past what was safe. My reaction: "That's some really sketchy gate operation." Edit: I remember there were rumors that RU put explosives on the dam for this purpose after losing Kherson. They were rumors and personally thought that made little strategic sense considering they could have just kept the river high over a longer period of time with an operational dam. It'd have stymied any pontoon bridge assault by Ukraine. Plus, it's a huge water resource for the Russian occupied regions. If this was an explosive breach, that'd be incredibly stupid. I'd like to see a satellite image of the breach before saying anything more. Edit2: Had some dribble leftover from another post removed. RockWhisperer fucked around with this message at 12:16 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:04
|
|
|
Chalks posted:A timeline of Russian messages about the dam might indicate that they hosed up and didn't realise the impact this would have To add some context for anyone unfamiliar with the specific dam and body of water involved: Red arrow is roughly the dam. That entire body of water upstream is what was just unleashed downstream. idk what would even be a good comparison, but it's not like some small dam holding back a minor river was destroyed. It's an absolutely immense release of water. It was the second largest body of water in Ukraine. 
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:09
|
|
|
If they blew it up on purpose without calculating the impact, that would be an act of historical incompetence, a whole new level of gently caress up. If they just neglected it until it failed on its own, it would be merely an act of baseline incompetence expected of the Russian.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:19
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/Janet04745625/status/1665893010825945090?t=L9np3SQtrbMAIU6u6jtzbA&s=19 This was the earliest video I saw about the dam, but I didn't repost it last night because it wasn't clear what was going on. Does someone versed in Russian telegram know if a) it's genuinely from last night and b) can translate what the guy says?
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:23
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:IIRC that's the bend in the road that was hit by much Ukrainian HIMARS strikes, I don't remember if Russia finished it off, though. It's also a separate mini-bridge on the side, not part of the damm structure. This person is claiming that bit of road was swept away over the past few days: https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665969541871017984?s=20 The water level was so high during early May people are claiming it was "over-topping" the dam i.e. flowing over the tops of the sluice gates. Which apparently is Very Bad depending on how a dam is designed?
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:26
|
|
|
Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/Janet04745625/status/1665893010825945090?t=L9np3SQtrbMAIU6u6jtzbA&s=19 The guy in the video is not necessarily a soldier, he just says 'you need to get away from here, lads, the dam is gone'. This photo was also posted by a Russian tg channel, saying the soldiers now have to relocate for the sixth time this year. The photo doesn't come up in any image searches, but no real way to confirm if it's actually from today. 
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:29
|
|
|
CSM posted:Of course they are, that doesn't mean it still couldn't be an accident. Maybe a Russian soldier was smoking a cigarette too close to the large pile of sabotage explosives planted inside the dam.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:30
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:To add some context for anyone unfamiliar with the specific dam and body of water involved: Kamianske (a little up river from Dnipro). In fact there's dams all along the Dnieper It's certainly a gently caress ton of water though. Cable Guy fucked around with this message at 12:43 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:40
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666045155743260672
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:44
|
|
|
Cable Guy posted:Not entirely accurate... There's a dam at Zaporizhzhia and another at Those are significantly farther upriver, though I guess I did word that imprecisely, by 'entire body of water' I'm referring to the obvious, large body of water upstream of the dam, not the entire river system itself. I used a map of the entirety of Ukraine to show the scale of it relative to the entire country. added marks for zaporizhzhia and kamianske for clarity though 
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 12:53 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 12:46
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665959437981429762?t=GXrL5wM9pdupHMR_Jeb3Gg&s=19 This is a good thread by a NPR science reporter about the deteriorating situation at the dam even before last night. Also, the story about windows being shattered X km away is bunk.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 13:01
|
|
|
Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665959437981429762?t=GXrL5wM9pdupHMR_Jeb3Gg&s=19 As in, you're disputing the literal state of some windows or are you denying the explosion happened? Because there's a bunch of evidence of that https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1666031403471982592
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 13:06
|
|
|
Chalks posted:As in, you're disputing the literal state of some windows or are you denying the explosion happened? Because there's a bunch of evidence of that https://twitter.com/EerikMatero/status/1666017134135193601?t=5u9mvE_P2m1BqO8TOa60lw&s=19 Based on that thread. Keep in mind, the sound of the dam breaking could sound like an explosion to people primed to expect getting shelled.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 13:22
|
|
|
I wouldn't put too much faith in a claim that windows shattered 80km away from an explosion.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 13:36
|
|
|
Yeah 80km is about 50mi.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 13:40
|
|
|
If Russia had not invaded, the Dam would be there. If Russia had not damaged it, the Dam would be there. If Russia had maintained it, the Dam would be there. It does not matter if they blew it up to stop the Ukrainian counter offensive that is kicking off (!), or complete incompetence. Russia is responsible.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 13:41
|
|
|
Here's a clip from a security camera showing the moment of the explosion. edit - Nevermind, it's an old video. Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 14:09 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 13:58
|
|
|
Mr. Apollo posted:Here's a clip from a security camera showing the moment of the explosion. That video was posted 6 months ago.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:00
|
|
|
Mr. Apollo posted:Here's a clip from a security camera showing the moment of the explosion. That was uploaded 6 months ago?
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:00
|
|
|
Mr. Apollo posted:Here's a clip from a security camera showing the moment of the explosion. Six months ago. e: snap Aertuun fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 10:20 |
|
|
Mr. Apollo posted:Here's a clip from a security camera showing the moment of the explosion. Please check the date of video, it took me 5 seconds to click Meanwhile, https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1666065790741762049?t=jJVYI3noND9ehPOjhjyiMA&s=19
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:01
|
|