(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Griefor posted:rear end in a top hat billionaires (oxymoron) Tautology
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Jun 8, 2023 18:23
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Failed Imagineer posted:Tautology Pleonasm.
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Jun 8, 2023 18:31
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quote:Dam flood water uprooting and dispersing mines, Red Cross warns i knew this was a a concern, but i had naively hoped that being submerged for several days would render uxo inert. apparently not
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Jun 8, 2023 19:18
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quote:The cooling pond at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine is in danger of collapse as a result of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the draining of its reservoir, according to a French nuclear safety organisation. continuing pressure on safe operation of the nuclear plant. the more introduced points of friction, the greater the chance of something going sideways
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Jun 8, 2023 19:40
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i knew this was a a concern, but i had naively hoped that being submerged for several days would render uxo inert. apparently not Not inert, no. Explosives that have lied in the bottom of a lake for decades can still be very dangerous. And traditionally mines are designed to survive long times in changing environments anyway. (Nowadays there are mines that stay primed for only a limited time, then kill themselves.) The triggering parts are going to be unpredictable though, and it's going to be a huge problem. Some might get jammed with water and clay, but not necessarily and in no way predictably. And normally there's an upright position for a mine that you place it in, and it's the position in which the mine will most likely trigger when stepped on. It might sound like good news that the mine doesn't trigger as well, but imagine that you are trying to clear mines by prodding them. You poke a spot, nothing happens. Is it clear? Mines could also get washed into a ditch, get covered by a metre of mud and years later someone comes digging. Boom. It's a loving mess.
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Jun 8, 2023 19:41
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Wait, hold up, Ukraine's nuclear agency has been named Ener Go Atom this entire time?
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Jun 8, 2023 19:43
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:continuing pressure on safe operation of the nuclear plant. the more introduced points of friction, the greater the chance of something going sideways Frig, I did not think about that. I was confident a way to extend lines to keep water pumping in could be found, but keeping the entire structure in place without the support of a lake's worth of water is a much bigger problem to solve Good job making a double historic environmental and humanitarian catastrophe Putin. How useful will the Black Sea be if the cooling pond of Europe's largest nuclear plant drains into it?
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Jun 8, 2023 19:45
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Doing magnet fishing is extremely inadvisable in Germany (if not illegal), same as going around with a metal detector. Mines are built to sit in the mud, they will happily stay active during floods.
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Jun 8, 2023 19:46
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Nenonen posted:Not inert, no. Explosives that have lied in the bottom of a lake for decades can still be very dangerous. Naval ordnance and sea mines still wash up on the North Carolina outer banks from WWII on occasion, and the Navy EOD people get to come out and deal with it. There’s no telling if the charges are still good or not (well, there’s one way  ) so they typically just detonate the things in place. 80+ years of saltwater exposure isn’t enough for anybody to think any washed up UXO is safe, freshwater doesn’t stand a chance.
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Jun 8, 2023 19:51
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Antigravitas posted:Doing magnet fishing is extremely inadvisable in Germany (if not illegal), same as going around with a metal detector. Yeah there's plenty of yt shorts/tiktoks of idiots magnet fishing out old grenades, mines, bombs, mortar shells, and other UXO, and almost universally are extremely irresponsible in the way they handle it too. They usually do call their local emergency services and a bomb squad comes out, but you can tell they're sick and tired of these clowns calling them out every few weeks with a new surprise
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Jun 8, 2023 20:28
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Here's an article I read recently about the UXO from WW2 wrecks and post war marine munition dumping that is kind of relevant here. It's more focused on the environmental impacts but as part of that it goes into how dangerous this stuff still is, 75+ years on, and how difficult it is to clear and more properly dispose of, especially when you don't know what you've got, where it is, and what condition it's in. With a nice aside about how bad actors could recover and re-use some of it too! On the environmental side, it's got a lot about how UXO leeches into the ecosystem, harming everything around it and, potentially, the humans at the other end of the foodchain. It's directly about fisheries but I have to imagine there are significant paralels between that and the amount of shells, mines, and ammunition being spread all over one of Europe's major agricultural regions.
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Jun 8, 2023 20:48
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Failed Imagineer posted:Tautology Groke posted:Pleonasm. Oh yeah, my bad, fixed it.
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Jun 8, 2023 20:50
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Just outside London in the Thames Estuary https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Richard_Montgomery
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Jun 8, 2023 20:58
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To be honest, between the seesaw battles waste and post-WW2 industrial waste, the fresh mines and other uxo in the area are chump change. It's the heavy metals from the former categories, now flushed from sediments, that will cause more immediate harm to fisheries. In the long run they will settle down again, but it will take a while. In the meantime the current shells will rust into a toxic slush, which is nice.
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Jun 8, 2023 20:59
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Counteroffensive has three fronts atm: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1666877259364302878
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Jun 8, 2023 21:04
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Humans are loving idiots.
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Jun 8, 2023 21:06
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https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1666884691234807817?s=20 Looks like that particular speculation can be put to rest.
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Jun 8, 2023 21:14
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When I was in the Peace Corps in Cambodia, depending on where in the country you got placed you were either going to be dealing with land mines or unexploded American bombs. I was in the part of the country that got plastered by the US Air Force and I think they dug up a half dozen bombs around my village just in the two years I was there. What I'm trying to say is that Ukraine is going to be dealing with UXO for generations and it sucks.
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Jun 8, 2023 21:17
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1666884691234807817?s=20 i did note this caveat, but still seems pretty strong evidence that this was an intentional act quote:There is still uncertainty. The seismic arrays can't locate the blast to closer than within 20-30 kilometers (12-19 miles) of the dam. But Oye says explosions in this particular part of Ukraine are rarely seen, and so a blast due to something else would be an unusual coincidence.
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Jun 8, 2023 21:18
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:continuing pressure on safe operation of the nuclear plant. the more introduced points of friction, the greater the chance of something going sideways When I hear about the state of the nuclear plants it's pretty amazing to me that basically even with a huge amount of malfeasance on behalf of an invading army the plant hasn't yet had something start leaking or gone critical. Really a statement to how over engineered these things are, and that basically it takes an act of god or intentional destruction of critical system to have something awful happen.
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Jun 8, 2023 21:22
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Interesting information about the construction of the dam. Apparently it was built specifically to withstand bombing https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1666803376015970304
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Jun 8, 2023 21:48
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1666884691234807817?s=20 I don't think there was ever any doubt there was an explosion (or, according to that chat that was posted earlier, a series of explosions starting at 2:20 local time). The question is whether the explosion/s were the result or the cause of the dam failure. If the turbine hall was still in operation and/or the dam had been rigged up with explosives by the Russians, that makes it quite a powder keg (almost literally). We've already seen satellite photos showing (quite huge) concrete structures being swept away the day before. These were adjacent to the hydro plant buildings. If the dam foundations had been eroded in that area (through water overtopping the sluice gates) the hydro plant buildings would have been one of the first things to go once there was a breach. As others have noted, the water level was significantly higher than it should have been. It's a pretty academic point however; the devastation this has caused is entirely the Russian's fault, and doesn't seem to give them any advantage whatsoever. There's no scenario which doesn't make them look terrible. Aertuun fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Jun 8, 2023 |
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Jun 8, 2023 22:41
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https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1666910606585200640 I find this thread pretty interesting. Zaluzhnyi hasn't spent much time in public recently while Syrskyi has had a few more appearances than usual. That dude really hates Syrskyi.
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Jun 8, 2023 22:46
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There's definitely footage of a Leopard 2 (non-tractor variants) in a staging area near Zaporizhzhia that have been hit by artillery, not sure about the progress of the other fronts, apparently 3 being developed atm, but the Western armour is being deployed
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Jun 8, 2023 23:32
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Surprisingly, not a Trent Telenko thread about tires, but apparently Russia got Chinese tires for various military vehicles, to predictable results... https://twitter.com/CovertGoat/status/1666939225252536325?s=20
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Jun 8, 2023 23:58
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Young Freud posted:Surprisingly, not a Trent Telenko thread about tires, but apparently Russia got Chinese tires for various military vehicles, to predictable results... I remember seeing this in news at the beginning of the war. Seems like they haven’t found better suppliers (if the tweet is to be believed). Also something is wrong with the truck’s suspension geometry because the tire hasn’t worn evenly.
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Jun 9, 2023 00:12
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a primate posted:I remember seeing this in news at the beginning of the war. Seems like they haven’t found better suppliers (if the tweet is to be believed). There’s a whole international supply chain for retreading heavy equipment tires. Probably cut off from that.
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Jun 9, 2023 00:19
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52km? That's not missing some zeroes? Edit: oh, 52k km. What.is this, Aurora?
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Jun 9, 2023 00:41
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OddObserver posted:52km? That's not missing some zeroes? Heavy vehicles on rough or unpaved roads. 52k km does seem low, but I'm sure even the best tires in the world get hosed up fast during wartime.
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Jun 9, 2023 00:43
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a primate posted:I remember seeing this in news at the beginning of the war. Seems like they haven’t found better suppliers (if the tweet is to be believed). Evidently they were getting tires from China with predictable results. I assume the Chinese military has similar issues as well.
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Jun 9, 2023 01:04
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Djarum posted:Evidently they were getting tires from China with predictable results. I assume the Chinese military has similar issues as well. I don’t know anything about military equipment. But in consumer products it often is the case that Chinese companies export shittier stuff than the things they make for the local market.
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Jun 9, 2023 06:49
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Djarum posted:Evidently they were getting tires from China with predictable results. I assume the Chinese military has similar issues as well. I don’t think Russian army uses Chinese tires, there’s a plenty of local tire production in Russia. I’d guess dry-rotted ten plus years old tires is a more likely reason of heavy wear
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Jun 9, 2023 06:55
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HDC posted:I don’t think Russian army uses Chinese tires, there’s a plenty of local tire production in Russia. I’d guess dry-rotted ten plus years old tires is a more likely reason of heavy wear I vaguely remember Twitter star for a day Trent Telenko saying a lot of those busted tires at the start of the war were cheap Chinese tyres. Seemed a lot of the corruption stories were Russia ordering X and getting cheap Chinese products at the end.
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Jun 9, 2023 07:07
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HDC posted:I don’t think Russian army uses Chinese tires, there’s a plenty of local tire production in Russia. I’d guess dry-rotted ten plus years old tires is a more likely reason of heavy wear Yeah, e.g. Nokia Tyres had a big factory there and they had to leave it to Russians. Chalks posted:Interesting information about the construction of the dam. Apparently it was built specifically to withstand bombing Look, the WTC was built to withstand jet fuel
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Jun 9, 2023 07:17
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HDC posted:I don’t think Russian army uses Chinese tires, there’s a plenty of local tire production in Russia. I’d guess dry-rotted ten plus years old tires is a more likely reason of heavy wear I seem to recall that was pointed out in some videos early in the war with people pointing out signs that tires were not just shoddily made but had clear signs of aging under poor conditions.
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Jun 9, 2023 07:25
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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1667088506932297731 Interesting for the SBU to release transcripts implying the dam destruction was a mistake. Makes the recording more believable, which is perhaps the point, but also reduces the culpability of Russia somewhat (although obviously not entirely since planting explosives in a dam and then blowing it up accidentally is still some incredible negligence)
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Jun 9, 2023 09:57
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1667088506932297731 Is there really less culpability if they just accidentally the whole thing while war criming and didn't intentionally the whole thing? That feels like a distinction without a difference.
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Jun 9, 2023 11:27
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Bel Shazar posted:Is there really less culpability if they just accidentally the whole thing while war criming and dodn't intentionally the whole thing? That feels like a distinction without a difference. I don't think in any meaningful way in terms of what the international response would be - the downing of the passenger airline was also probably accidental (in that they didn't realise it was civilian) but its still completely condemned. It does make some difference when it comes to anticipating future Russian tactics though I think. The action made no sense, so if Putin commanded the dam be blown up it could have implications about what other seemingly senseless and brutal acts he'd order. Perhaps any international action aimed at stopping him from doing this sort of thing again would be pointless if he didn't actually have anything to do with it. I guess this also extends the theoretical scope of Russian incompetence in the opposite way, so we'd better cross our fingers about that nuclear plant.
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Jun 9, 2023 11:33
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^^^^ dang!Bel Shazar posted:Is there really less culpability if they just accidentally the whole thing while war criming and didn't intentionally the whole thing? That feels like a distinction without a difference. There is the same sort of difference as between "Vladimir Putin authorized the transfer of a Buk M1 system to Ukraine, which then shot down MH-17" and "Vladimir Putin authorized shooting down MH-17". Anyway I wouldn't put give much value to a conversation between two Russian soldiers unless they were present. Soldiers love gossip and speculation.
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Jun 9, 2023 11:43
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1667088506932297731 While I lean towards Russia being behind it, that recording hardly proves that. It's just two Russians discussing the incident. The one who insists Russia did it, couldn't even recognise the Russia-appointed Kherson governor Saldo in the video where he tells everything is fine, and calls him a soldier. He also mentions seeing it on telegram, so chances are, this is just something he read on a random channel, like everyone else.
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Jun 9, 2023 11:56
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