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After seven long years of waiting, we are once again witnesses to one of the most entertaining and depressing spectacles in American politics: a (potentially) competitive Republican Primary. All across the country, men and women with spectacularly lovely opinions are looking in the mirror and saying to themselves “Yes, I could be President!” But only one will win the primary, and for the rest, their hopes, dreams, and those six long and grueling months of pretending to like Iowans will all come to naught. This thread is dedicated towards following their trials and tribulations, but mostly laughing at how most of these morons think they actually have a chance in hell of winning anything, much less the White House. Let's meet the hopefuls, starting with those polling in double digits who might actually have a chance: Donald Trump Polling Average: 53.7%* Age: 76 Credentials: Former President of the United States, Real Estate magnate, huckster Back and shitter than ever, Trump is the current frontrunner, by far, of the Republican primary. In spite of the growing frustration of what's left of the Republican establishment, the terrible performances of his chosen candidates in 2022, and the looming possibility he might be watching the election results from inside a jail cell, Trump still remains a dominant figure in Republican politics. He is the man to beat, but retains the advantage that everyone else is afraid to take a swing—lest they alienate Trump's legion of followers, most of whom are more loyal to Trump personally than to the Republican party. What may be more likely is that Trump is finally brought down by the mountain of indictments against him. But he's managed to dodge consequences his entire life, and there's no guarantee that's going to stop now. But hey, maybe we'll get lucky, his age will finally catch up with him, and the bastard will simply drop dead. Which would certainly benefit our next candidate! Ron DeSantis Polling Average: 21.3% Age: 44 Credentials: Governor of Florida, Former Member of the US House of Representatives from Florida, Lt. Commander US Navy (Ret) Long before he announced, everyone knew DeSantis was running. For those disillusioned with Trump, he was the great Republican hope: The man who'd won a crushing reelection victory in a swing state, who'd carefully cultivated a tough image of fighting libs and Getting Things Done (TM), the mythical competent fascist who could accomplish all kinds of awful things with the power that Trump had so foolishly squandered. And then his campaign actually began, and it turned out the “competent” part may have been overstated. Despite entering the year with strong support and polling well against the disgraced ex-president, DeSantis has managed to squander most of his advantages thanks to a string of exceptionally poor decisions and overall bad strategy, and is currently a distant second behind Trump. There's always a chance he may come back, and stands a strong chance of becoming the frontrunner if Trump is taken out of the race. But unless something major changes, DeSantis' campaign is clearly going to fail. Polling in whole numbers: Mike Pence Polling Average: 5.4% Age: 64 Credentials: Former Vice President of the United States, Former Governor of Indiana, Former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Indiana, Rush Limbaugh knockoff. Despite a not-insignificant of the Republican Primary electorate having called for him to be hanged a little over two years ago, Mike Pence has decided to throw his own hat in the ring. Though hated by the Trump die-hards for failing to help Trump's coup, Pence allegedly thinks that his old-style conservative rhetoric and hardcore evangelicalism will win him votes in Iowa. Good luck with that, Mike. Nikki Haley Polling Average: 4.5% Age: 51 Credentials: Former US Ambassador to the United Nations, Former Governor of South Carolina, Former Member of the South Carolina House of Representatives Though one of the earliest candidates to file, Haley hasn't made much headway so far, and has done little to set herself apart from her fellow “Not-Trump” candidates. Though spectacularly unlikely to come out on top, expect to see her as a top VP candidate once the primary has concluded. Vivek Ramaswamy Polling Average: 3.4% Age: 37 Credentials: $630 million net worth, Biotech CEO, got Don Lemon fired This cycle's version of the candidate with too much money and not enough sense. Vivek has spent the last few years crying about how woke everything is as a cable news guest, and has since decided to springboard that experience into a longshot campaign. His campaign platform is a delightfully insane document, filled with policies like “raise the voting age to 25” and “Make all federal employees retire after 8 years,” along with less funny proposals like banning gender-affirming care for minors and supporting a 6 week abortion ban. Tim Scott Polling Average: 2.2% Age: 57 Credentials: United States Senator from South Carolina, Former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from South Carolina, Former Member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, Former Member of the Charleston County Council Scott's decision to run threw many political analysts for a loop. An unremarkable Republican Senator in terms of policy and rhetoric, Scott currently holds a safe role in the Republican Senate leadership and didn't seem the type to embark upon a long-shot Presidential run. Some (me) have speculated he's angling to raise his profile to be picked as Trump's VP nominee. Asa Hutchinson Age: 57 Credentials: Former Governor of Arkansas, Former Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Border and Transportation Security, Former Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration, Former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Arkansas, Former Chair of the Arkansas Republican Party, Former United States Attorney To give Hutchinson the proper respect he deserves, I will describe his campaign using the number of characters corresponding to the percentage that he's currently polling at, as of the time of time I write this: F Other declared or about to declare candidates to be added once 538 bothers to include them in its polling averages: Chris Christie Larry Elder Doug Burgum Still deciding how much they like Iowans: John Bolton Will Hurd Rick Perry Kristi Noem Glenn Youngkin Declined to get involved in this shitshow: Greg Abbott Marsha Blackburn Tucker Carlson Liz Cheney Tom Cotton Dan Crenshaw, Ted Cruz Joni Ernst Josh Hawley Larry Hogan Brian Kemp Adam Kinzinger, Dan Patrick Rand Paul Mike Pompeo Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Paul Ryan Rick Scott Chris Sununu Donald Trump Jr Ivanka Trump Scott Walker *Polling averages taken from 538, current as of June 6th, 2023
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# ? Jun 7, 2023 01:55 |
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# ? May 10, 2024 01:41 |
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MAJOR DATES: Thu, Aug 10, 2023 – Sun, Aug 20, 2023: Iowa State Fair, along with the Iowa Straw Poll Wednesday, August 23rd: First Republican Primary Debate Monday, October 16th, 2023: Nevada caucus filing deadline Monday, January 8th: Iowa Caucus. Other dates to be added when I get around to it. Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 06:40 on Jun 7, 2023 |
# ? Jun 7, 2023 01:55 |
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Scott is all the more perplexing because he has a really solid power structure in South Carolina, having built a machine that combines transactional paleoconservative business interests and the backing of the state megachurches, particularly Seacoast, which has major outlets and financial holdings in every major city in the state. Scott has tempered his position by taking a moderate (for Republican red state standards) position on police reform, which isn't going to help him at the national level. He's not a very charismatic speaker, but he's good at conventional politics, which has made his entry all the stranger- he's horribly bobbled abortion policy questions, despite their being an obvious sticking point for him. One possibility is that Scott is being encouraged by the least chuddy, most money-focused elements of the evangelical christianity industry. edit: since it's relevant to this candidate, here's a slightly revised post about the business model of Seacoast and its scale of influence that I made a few years back: quote:The below is the result of some googling I did in 2018 when someone asked me to try to identify who was backing confederate apologist groups in SC. Less consolidation has occurred than I expected in the years since I wrote that post, probably due to covid. Nonetheless, commercial development has continued and Seacoast now has a separate office complex there to run its network. With all this said, Seacoast is a politically powerful entity in South Carolina. It gives Scott no real leverage nationally. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jun 7, 2023 |
# ? Jun 7, 2023 03:39 |
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Discendo Vox posted:Less consolidation has occurred than I expected in the years since I wrote that post, probably due to covid. Nonetheless, commercial development has continued and Seacoast now has a separate office complex there to run its network. With all this said, Seacoast is a politically powerful entity in South Carolina. It gives Scott no real leverage nationally. Hopeless candidates run all the time to raise their profile on a national level, especially under the GOP where spectacle is everything. It's a good way to get appointed Secretary of Something or Other by the winner
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# ? Jun 7, 2023 04:11 |
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DarklyDreaming posted:Hopeless candidates run all the time to raise their profile on a national level, especially under the GOP where spectacle is everything. It's a good way to get appointed Secretary of Something or Other by the winner Scott isn't someone who's ever pursued that, and he decided that his current term would be his last one back in 2019. He's got no specific background or positioning for any particular cabinet position, either- and he's unlikely to get anything under Trump, who he's very publicly clashed with.
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# ? Jun 7, 2023 04:28 |
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e: Quote is not edit! For an actual post: Scott is definitely a weird candidate to be running for President. Obviously, we've all heard the phrase "Every Senator looks in the mirror and sees a future President," but Scott's never shown that kind of ambition — hell, he didn't even run for his own Senate seat in the first place, he was appointed by Nikki Haley back in 2010. His campaign also hasn't shown any kind of unique edge to it, it's all pretty bog-standard Republican policies wrapped in a veil of "respectable" conservatism. It's a very weird campaign for these times. Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 06:45 on Jun 7, 2023 |
# ? Jun 7, 2023 06:40 |
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Hell yes I’m so ready for this
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# ? Jun 7, 2023 06:44 |
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Another fun fact about Scott: he's never married or publicly dated and is thus as a part of his expressed Christian beliefs, avowedly celibate. Somehow (probably because he pisses off far fewer people in SC politics) I've never heard the sort of rumormongering around him that constantly swarms around Lindsey Graham, the other SC senator. I have to imagine that if Scott starts showing any promise, his personal life's going to go under a microscope in that regard.
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# ? Jun 7, 2023 07:05 |
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Serious question here. Why when famous men live such a lifestyle is the assumption always that they’re gay, rather than bad with women?
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# ? Jun 7, 2023 07:27 |
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pencilhands posted:Serious question here. Why when famous men live such a lifestyle is the assumption always that they’re gay, rather than bad with women? Because no matter how bad you are, if you''re famous and/or powerful somebody is going to gently caress you.
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# ? Jun 7, 2023 12:08 |
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pencilhands posted:Serious question here. Why when famous men live such a lifestyle is the assumption always that they’re gay, rather than bad with women? I think because it can be easier to believe that someone is gay and trying to hide it (especially if they've got that R next to their name) than capable enough to become a senator without ever managing even a short term relationship. I mean another possibility is that the person falls somewhere else in the sexuality world, maybe just asexual and having no interest in a love life at all. There should be no problem with any of those, but politics gonna be stupid (because people are stupid) about it.
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# ? Jun 7, 2023 15:22 |
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fwiw, a newsnation/decisiondeskHQ 1,000 rv poll showed Pence (15%) Scott (13%), and Haley (12%) as the most popular choices to be Trump's 2024 running mate. (https://www.newsnationnow.com/polls/newsnation-poll-economy-schools/) 538 has a 32.5 point national average disadvantage for DeSantis (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/), and interestingly I think this is because your average rural non-college white Trump voter wants a candidate who agrees with their views rather than a candidate who is more electable. Ironically, this was the case in 2016 and Trump ended up winning in one of the biggest political upsets in history. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-primary-electability/)
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# ? Jun 9, 2023 05:31 |
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Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas.
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# ? Jun 9, 2023 16:10 |
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Timmy Age 6 posted:Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas. Mike Pence Mayo, because aioli is too
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# ? Jun 9, 2023 20:31 |
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Timmy Age 6 posted:Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas. Big soft serve custard vibes
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# ? Jun 9, 2023 21:30 |
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I mean, I assume that vibe is what Pence supporters are wanting Also, is he really trying or is this a pilgrimage on his knees to getting his old job back?
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# ? Jun 9, 2023 22:50 |
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Old Surly posted:Big soft serve custard vibes my man selling necco wafers next to an organ grinder
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# ? Jun 9, 2023 23:38 |
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I like that you started this thread, Acebuckeye13, and it will be fun to watch these morons try to out patriot each other. But the fact that there are so many GOP candidates (already), IMO, basically hands the nom to Trump. Whether he's indicted or not. There's not going to be much suspense here is what I'm saying. It's like a Rocky movie at this point.
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# ? Jun 10, 2023 00:05 |
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Timmy Age 6 posted:Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas. Looks like a petroleum corporation to me
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# ? Jun 10, 2023 00:24 |
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Timmy Age 6 posted:Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas. it's like i can feel 1988
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# ? Jun 10, 2023 09:58 |
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I hope we get a debate between Trump and Christie and it's just 30 minutes of fat jokes.
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# ? Jun 11, 2023 00:53 |
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trump can tailor his set to the audience with the aplomb of a grizzled standup comic
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# ? Jun 11, 2023 01:02 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I hope we get a debate between Trump and Christie and it's just 30 minutes of fat jokes. I'm mostly stoked for Christie to just go full bloodsports on someone again like he did to Rubio in 2015. It didn't help his campaign at all, but watching him just strangle Rubio's presidential dreams to death on stage is perhaps my fondest memory of that whole poo poo show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqshYG4qvT4 Caros fucked around with this message at 01:12 on Jun 11, 2023 |
# ? Jun 11, 2023 01:09 |
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Caros posted:I'm mostly stoked for Christie to just go full bloodsports on someone again like he did to Rubio in 2015. Rubio isn’t even running now, right?
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# ? Jun 11, 2023 03:29 |
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lilljonas posted:Rubio isn’t even running now, right? Let's dispense with this idea that Marco Rubio knows if he is running for president. He knows exactly what he is doing. Rubio had one (1) cycle where he could credibly run for president, and Fat Reek torpedo'd it in glorious fashion.
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# ? Jun 11, 2023 10:57 |
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Reek Reek, it rhymes with (rear end) cheek.
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# ? Jun 11, 2023 12:42 |
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1667938913086853121?s=20
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# ? Jun 11, 2023 21:02 |
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Makes sense, that 27% not considering DeSantis has consistently been Trump’s floor.
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# ? Jun 12, 2023 01:01 |
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It will be a wonderful freakshow. I am surprised anyone would try to have a go when Trump is running.
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# ? Jun 12, 2023 23:27 |
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Budzilla posted:It will be a wonderful freakshow. I am surprised anyone would try to have a go when Trump is running. Second, if Trump has to drop out, then this primary could get wild. I mean, it could also be the more boring path of everyone falling behind DeSantis, but it’s hard to say. But Trump has a lot of factors that could kneecap him: there’s the obvious indictments that keep piling up, there’s his age, and remember back in November his groupies were showing signs of wavering loyalty thanks to him being obnoxious about DeSantis and NFTs. I mean, in 2015 a lot of people had Trump pegged as a doomed primary candidate. Lots of unexpected poo poo happens during an election.
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# ? Jun 13, 2023 02:14 |
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On top of all that Pants Donkey said, I wouldn't be surprised if several of the people running are actually setting up for 2028, in a climate where Trump is more likely to be dead and/or disgraced and the Democrats are either running Harris or someone new to the national stage. They'll run for a bit, do everything they can to be non-confrontational with Trump (because they'll want his supporters behind him in four years), and 'gracefully withdraw' after achieving the high of a second or third place result in a few states to prove they have appeal to future bankrollers. The GOP has been pretty supportive of also-rans later getting the nom (McCain from 2000 into 2008; Romney from 2008 into 2012). This is one of the places where DeSantis is hosed, because he's the annointed "not Trump", and so he's both in a confrontational role, and the expectations around him are much higher. Tim Scott can gently caress around, withdraw before New Hampshire, and still look viable for 2028. If DeSantis doesn't win at least a few states through Super Tuesday, he won't look viable in 2028 at all, and DeSantis is not on a trajectory to win any states. Edit: Honestly, now that I think about it, DeSantis' clearly doomed candidacy might be pulling more people into the race than would happen otherwise, because no one else has to risk being the "major contender" and actually run a viable campaign skeleton warrior fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Jun 13, 2023 |
# ? Jun 13, 2023 15:56 |
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In "Candidates With No Shot" news, here's a recap of Chris Christie's town hall if anyone cares https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/12/politics/chris-christie-cnn-town-hall-takeaways/index.html H'e not Trump, but he agrees with Trump. He is cool with abortion laws but thinks they should be up to the states and who knows? And he won't say if Trump is worse than Biden but he himself is good and should be president, basically. Kind of hosed up when he's the most reaspnable Reupblican right now but, well.
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# ? Jun 13, 2023 22:50 |
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Imo Christie has the best chance at challenging trump cuz he has an actual personality and could be considered "likeable" by some. Which is to say, he has a .0001% chance as opposed to pudding fingers desantis flat 0%.
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# ? Jun 13, 2023 23:08 |
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Bourgeois entertainment and all that, but also a solid burn https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2023/jun/12/denee-benton-ron-desantis-klan-grand-wizard-tony-awards-broadway quote:Prominent Broadway actor Denée Benton likened Florida’s rightwing governor Ron DeSantis to a Ku Klux Klan grand wizard at Sunday night’s Tony awards ceremony, drawing applause and roars of approval from the audience.
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# ? Jun 14, 2023 18:01 |
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Discendo Vox posted:Another fun fact about Scott: he's never married or publicly dated and is thus as a part of his expressed Christian beliefs, avowedly celibate. Somehow (probably because he pisses off far fewer people in SC politics) I've never heard the sort of rumormongering around him that constantly swarms around Lindsey Graham, the other SC senator. I have to imagine that if Scott starts showing any promise, his personal life's going to go under a microscope in that regard. https://twitter.com/bterris/status/1660620180890742790 I think he's said elsewhere he's not a virgin? Boy he does not like talking about it
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# ? Jun 14, 2023 23:21 |
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The millions of Americans who have been asking "Will Francis Suarez enter the presidential race?" can finally breathe a sigh of relief: https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1669094421416034304
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# ? Jun 14, 2023 23:23 |
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Gonna go ahead and say the Disney thing doesn't seem to be working out too well for Ron https://twitter.com/NavigatorSurvey/status/1669359093860175877
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# ? Jun 15, 2023 18:24 |
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Usually things work out better for the weasel when they chase a mouse.
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# ? Jun 16, 2023 02:27 |
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What? No favorability bump for DeSantis after snagging the coveted Kevin Stitt endorsement?
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# ? Jun 16, 2023 02:38 |
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# ? May 10, 2024 01:41 |
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The support he lost from the combined Suarez and Burgum announcements canceled it out
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# ? Jun 16, 2023 02:44 |