(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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If Ukrainian forces make it to the Sea Of Azov at any location during this offensive it's going to be quite a game changer.
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Jun 10, 2023 18:34
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Nenonen posted:Gentlegoons, you can't fight here! This is the war room! What is the opposite of a war room? A peace plain? Just Another Lurker posted:If Ukrainian forces make it to the Sea Of Azov at any location during this offensive it's going to be quite a game changer. That's a tall order. I think they'd consider the offense an outstanding success if they made it even to Tokmak. Ukraine doesn't need to win the war with this push. The big thing they need to prove is the ability to utilize all that military aid to regain territory and capture objectives. Skippy McPants fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Jun 10, 2023 |
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Jun 10, 2023 18:35
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Xiahou Dun posted:That's not evidence. That's you just saying poo poo. The southern axis is very well fortified and the Russians have had a long time to plan the defence of this obvious weak point. The Kharkiv counter offensive was remarkable, made possible by a complete failure of Russian planning catching them by surprise. That is not the case here.
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Jun 10, 2023 18:38
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Skippy McPants posted:What is the opposite of a war room? A peace plain? A rumpus room.
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Jun 10, 2023 18:40
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Chalks posted:The southern axis is very well fortified and the Russians have had a long time to plan the defence of this obvious weak point. The Kharkiv counter offensive was remarkable, made possible by a complete failure of Russian planning catching them by surprise. That is not the case here. Sure, that's a short but fair summary of some of the difficulties the counter-offensive is and will be facing. It also has gently caress all support for MikeC's empty speculation because he just authoritatively said some poo poo like your drunk uncle, which is what he always does.
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Jun 10, 2023 18:40
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Trudeau made a surprise visit to Kyiv today. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-ukraine-visit-counteroffensive-russia-1.6871411 quote:Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met Saturday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, where he committed $500 million in new funding for military assistance. He also announced new sanctions as the country's war with Russia continues. quote:The prime minister offered no details on how the new funding would be spent. However, he indicated Canada would also extend its military training mission — known as Operation Unifier — until 2026 and offered to help train Ukrainian pilots, along with other countries, on the F-16 fighter aircraft. quote:Also on Saturday, Canada committed $10 million in humanitarian aid and promised to redirect another previously announced $37 million toward helping Ukraine manage and recover from the effects of the breach.
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Jun 10, 2023 18:42
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According to this the Ukrainian POWs from Transcarpathia that were brought to Hungary "with the help of the Russian orthodox church" are going to do a press conference where they will tell how they have been forcibly conscripted, were forced to fight in terrible conditions and the Hungarian government and the Russian orthodox church saved them and gave them back their freedom (from Ukraine). The moment this info came out, the Deputy Prime Minister of Hungary started praising the Russian Orthodox church and saying this is their gesture of good will towards Hungary. gently caress my country 
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Jun 10, 2023 18:51
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Chalks posted:The southern axis is very well fortified and the Russians have had a long time to plan the defence of this obvious weak point. The Kharkiv counter offensive was remarkable, made possible by a complete failure of Russian planning catching them by surprise. That is not the case here. Yeah, Kharkiv was the outlier, not the norm. Even the Ukrainian army was surprised at how successful it was, let alone allied observers, and they had higher expectations to begin with. Saying that the new offensive is probably going to be more like Kherson than Kharkiv is a pretty safe bet, even if it's still a little early to say 100% certainly.
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Jun 10, 2023 18:53
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Xiahou Dun posted:Sure, that's a short but fair summary of some of the difficulties the counter-offensive is and will be facing. Lol, I am glad I live rent free in your head. Going back to the start of the war, I haven't made a ton of predictions, but most them have been accurate. This is a pretty safe one too and in line with what guys like Kofman have been saying. The vitriol on display pretty funny though.
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Jun 10, 2023 18:56
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MikeC is MikeCorrect imo
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Jun 10, 2023 18:58
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Dandywalken posted:MikeC is MikeCorrect imo  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 10, 2023 19:05
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Skippy McPants posted:... That's me thinking optimistically for sure, time will tell.
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Jun 10, 2023 19:08
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MikeC posted:Lol, I am glad I live rent free in your head. Going back to the start of the war, I haven't made a ton of predictions, but most them have been accurate. This is a pretty safe one too and in line with what guys like Kofman have been saying. Weren't you pushing mearsheimer and RUSSIA HAS SECURITY CONCERNS I went to double-check if you are that guy and yes you are, and you should reread your posts too for your wildly inaccurate predictions and understanding of the situation, your memory is failing you "Look pal, I might've said that the west is not going to support Ukraine because they'll freeze to death in the winter without russian gas so Ukraine needs to negotiate a deal with Russia... But I also said that counter attacking for Ukraine is going to be hard, so I got something right" Somaen fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Jun 10, 2023 |
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Jun 10, 2023 19:11
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Unless someone here is another Jack Teixeira, seems obvious to me we're all just saying poo poo. Nobody's going to be able to give definitive evidence for anything big picture.
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Jun 10, 2023 19:14
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Please dont shittalk fellow goons. If you think they are full of poo poo bring evidence of the opposite. I'd also like to remind everyone that it is likely you dont have acces to classified/on the ground info and if your main measure is telegram whinage... Lets say you need to improve your methodology.
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Jun 10, 2023 19:26
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fatherboxx posted:I'd also like to remind everyone that it is likely you dont have acces to classified/on the ground info and if your main measure is telegram whinage... Lets say you need to improve your methodology. tbf to MikeC (whoah) that's the same thing as on the June 9 ISW report on the start of the offensive as well, where in the absence of much else to go on they kind of just conclude that this is looking to be proceeding not unlike the Kherson salient in last year's operations, slow and grinding and uncertain, and that the abscence of outright disorder on the Russian telegram scene might indicate that their lines and battleplans are mostly working as intended. Regardless of that, thinking that any of us, removed as we are from what's actually is going on, can divine and provide much insight0 on what is going on from a thousand pictures and recording of the same IFV column running into mines is the height of folly. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Jun 10, 2023 |
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Jun 10, 2023 19:30
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I get all my best info from the Mar a Lago Discord (In the WoT channel). Seriously though, sit back and wait. Anything that comes out is heavily curated and intentionally released. It will take a long time for an accurate picture to form. Everything until then is reading tea leaves. I do think it's good to have heavily tempered expectations though. As mentioned all the time, attacking into prepared positions is hard and costly.
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Jun 10, 2023 19:32
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fatherboxx posted:I'd also like to remind everyone that it is likely you dont have acces to classified/on the ground info and if your main measure is telegram whinage... Lets say you need to improve your methodology. I agree and have said as much in the past (no one has classified knowledge here) but the lack of Russian whinge on telegram is pretty strong circumstantial evidence unless the Russians have fixed their issues on this file. The stuff coming out of the Kharkiv fight and the subsequent Kherson were pretty decent indicators of how bad things were or were not going. Even the Ukrainians were leaking the pace of their advance by social media images. So far, pretty quiet on both ends.
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Jun 10, 2023 20:13
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with a rebel yell she QQd posted:According to this the Ukrainian POWs from Transcarpathia that were brought to Hungary "with the help of the Russian orthodox church" are going to do a press conference where they will tell how they have been forcibly conscripted, were forced to fight in terrible conditions and the Hungarian government and the Russian orthodox church saved them and gave them back their freedom (from Ukraine). thanks for the update, this seems like it's shaping up to be a wild episode. one gets the sense that orban wouldn't terribly mind if russia had just easily set the precedent that you can invade your neighbors over fever dream irredentists histories
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Jun 10, 2023 20:17
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MikeC posted:I agree and have said as much in the past (no one has classified knowledge here) but the lack of Russian whinge on telegram is pretty strong circumstantial evidence unless the Russians have fixed their issues on this file. IIRC there wasn't really a lot of Russian grumbling or whining on telegram about Kherson just a couple days after that offensive started, which grinded along for a long time before things got bleak for the Russians and they eventually withdrew. Hell, one of the first things I remember hearing coming out of that was that it had been going on for some days or (a week or more) and that the Ukrainians were meeting stiff resistance and taking heavy casualties from Russian artillery and that people here and on twitter were fretting about (or gloating) in the same way as now.
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Jun 10, 2023 20:18
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MikeC posted:I agree and have said as much in the past (no one has classified knowledge here) but the lack of Russian whinge on telegram is pretty strong circumstantial evidence unless the Russians have fixed their issues on this file. This is called a spurious correlation. And your sample size is 1. Two things happened at the same time, and now you're arguing that because 1 isn't happening the other can't be. That's just not how evidence works. Saying "X indicates Y" does not mean it does, and even if it did your premises don't follow each other.
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Jun 10, 2023 20:19
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Just a sample of the accurate predictions and extremely good grasp of the situationMikeC posted:Unless the Ukrainians end the war before November, this behaviour will probably continue as Putin will play the energy card to max and the EU will have to make decisions as to whether it will allow its citizens to suffer rolling blackouts and possibly freezing this winter vs coming to some sort of understanding with Putin to get the LNG following again. France earlier hit electricity prices of over 1000 Euros per megawatt hour from 70 Euros a year ago. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/german-power-rises-to-record-800-euros-in-latest-inflation-boost German companies are already halting production because electricity costs are too high https://www.ft.com/content/d0d46712-6234-4d24-bbed-924a00dd0ca9. Europe will likely have to collectively face a choice - continued support for Ukraine or a major economic downturn due to inflation and an energy crisis that may bring economic production to its knees. Edit: I don't think being wrong is bad, none of us can predict the future, but it's hilarious that someone calling themselves a Realist is just consistently wrong on predicting reality Somaen fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Jun 10, 2023 |
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Jun 10, 2023 20:29
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I'm in Germany and I can confirm I froze to death in the dark last February. RIP me.
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Jun 10, 2023 20:41
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Somaen posted:Just a sample of the accurate predictions and extremely good grasp of the situation I believe mr Mearsheimer also claimed that Ukraine has suffered 3x as many casualties as Russia in the Bakhmut campaign.
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Jun 10, 2023 20:51
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beer_war posted:I'm in Germany and I can confirm I froze to death in the dark last February. RIP me. All our accounts have been taken over by CIA sock-puppets to cover up the fact that we are dead because Europe is now a corpse-strewn wasteland ruled by pestilence and perpetual winter E: oops, i wasnt supposed to say that
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Jun 10, 2023 20:55
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Skippy McPants posted:What is the opposite of a war room? A peace plain?
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Jun 10, 2023 20:57
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Xiahou Dun posted:This is called a spurious correlation. And your sample size is 1. Two things happened at the same time, and now you're arguing that because 1 isn't happening the other can't be. Where did I say something "can't be"? It's your obsession with me clouding your reading comprehension again. I said signs point to another Kherson in terms rather than a Kharkiv. And yes the lack of Russian panic / Ukrainian boasting on social media points to this 48 hours into the Kharkiv, everybody knew something big was going down. As is the fact that Kharkiv occurred under extraordinary circumstances where conditions were perfect and will not be the same here. Randarkman posted:IIRC there wasn't really a lot of Russian grumbling or whining on telegram about Kherson just a couple days after that offensive started, which grinded along for a long time before things got bleak for the Russians and they eventually withdrew. Hell, one of the first things I remember hearing coming out of that was that it had been going on for some days or (a week or more) and that the Ukrainians were meeting stiff resistance and taking heavy casualties from Russian artillery and that people here and on twitter were fretting about (or gloating) in the same way as now. Correct. Russian social media was fairly positive on the Kherson front but was overshadowed by the collapse of the Donbas conscripts up north with the Ukrainians boosting how they had fooled the Russians with "the feint". After a month, with the Ukrainians hitting supply sites and crossings the stuff changed to how they had no supplies and complaining about the lack of suppoet whenever local attacks by the Ukrainians made headway. Right now, Russian bloggers like Rybar are only talking about heavy Ukrainian pressure. Somaen posted:Just a sample of the accurate predictions and extremely good grasp of the situation I also corrected advised against over exuberance in expecting the encirclement of Russians north of Kyiv when many goons where expecting a mass surrender, that the Russians would have a summer offensive in '22 when numerous goons thought the Russians were finished. Many goons thought that the collapse of Kherson would follow with cross Dnipro ops and I said that was fantasy and to expect months of attritional do nothing. Which is not really anything other than reading and repeating what credible analysts have said all along. And credible analysts are saying to expect more of a Kherson slog than a Kharkiv blitz.
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Jun 10, 2023 21:16
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MikeC posted:I also corrected advised against over exuberance in expecting the encirclement of Russians north of Kyiv when many goons where expecting a mass surrender, that the Russians would have a summer offensive in '22 when numerous goons thought the Russians were finished. Many goons thought that the collapse of Kherson would follow with cross Dnipro ops and I said that was fantasy and to expect months of attritional do nothing. Yes, reading credible analysts and averaging out their opinions to something with the most likelihood is what people do that produces reasonably good predictions. When you were writing walls of text based on mearsheimer and realism on the other hand
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Jun 10, 2023 21:33
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I was wrong about this, but some (not all) other goons were wrong in the other direction, so on balance I was right.
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Jun 10, 2023 21:34
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What's going on? All the people on my ignore list seem to be arguing with each other.
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Jun 10, 2023 22:39
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Some details about the progress on the south eastern Velyka Novosilka axis https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667648741740892161 https://twitter.com/BarracudaVol1/status/1667651225905422339
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Jun 10, 2023 23:09
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if true i guess we'll see how well the defense in depth has actually been constructed
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Jun 10, 2023 23:13
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EasilyConfused posted:The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: That's not evidence. That's you just saying poo poo.
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Jun 10, 2023 23:53
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:if true i guess we'll see how well the defense in depth has actually been constructed We know the defense in depth fortifications are extremely extensive based on satellite imagery and analysis, at least in terms of what has been constructed, dug out, etc. There is no doubt that Russia has correctly anticipated that the offensive would come on this axis. What remains to be confirmed is whether Russia can properly man and continuously outfit and reinforce those fortifications during the course of this offensive.
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Jun 11, 2023 00:15
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Can we move on from comparing prognostication abilities in the Ukraine thread? (And this has nothing to do with the probability that I would do poorly on a prediction contest of any kind)
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Jun 11, 2023 01:11
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Vox Nihili posted:We know the defense in depth fortifications are extremely extensive based on satellite imagery and analysis, at least in terms of what has been constructed, dug out, etc. There is no doubt that Russia has correctly anticipated that the offensive would come on this axis. What remains to be confirmed is whether Russia can properly man and continuously outfit and reinforce those fortifications during the course of this offensive. I wouldn't be wholly surprised to see Ukraine push somewhere else once Russia has committed enough reserves. Dumping a bunch of bradleys in the early days is real bad but there's still a lot in reserve. Have we seen any marders show up in combat yet?
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Jun 11, 2023 01:30
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A question re: modern fortifications, I feel like a lot of footage coming out of this war shows trenches that resemble moreso deep ditches than anything resembling bunkers or more connected trench systems. Is there a reason for that other than “shoddily and hastily thrown together at the frontline”? If Ukrainian forces push through a line like this tweet suggests:Chalks posted:Some details about the progress on the south eastern Velyka Novosilka axis Will they face the sme types of fortifications or something more solid?
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Jun 11, 2023 01:48
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Deltasquid posted:A question re: modern fortifications, I feel like a lot of footage coming out of this war shows trenches that resemble moreso deep ditches than anything resembling bunkers or more connected trench systems. Is there a reason for that other than “shoddily and hastily thrown together at the frontline”? If Ukrainian forces push through a line like this tweet suggests: A lot of these fortifications are probably mine fields.
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Jun 11, 2023 02:05
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MikeC posted:I agree and have said as much in the past (no one has classified knowledge here) but the lack of Russian whinge on telegram is pretty strong circumstantial evidence unless the Russians have fixed their issues on this file. Alternative, plausible explanation: the LPR/DNR mobiks were on Telegram more than the Russian formations currently under attack. Russia may just have gotten better at controlling information flow. Keep in mind the formations being attached are an entirely different military district, so far as we can tell. Deltasquid posted:A question re: modern fortifications, I feel like a lot of footage coming out of this war shows trenches that resemble moreso deep ditches than anything resembling bunkers or more connected trench systems. Is there a reason for that other than “shoddily and hastily thrown together at the frontline”? If Ukrainian forces push through a line like this tweet suggests: The second and third lines are where the anti-tank ditches and dragons teeth are. There are also more concrete strong points in those lines than in the first.
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Jun 11, 2023 02:18
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Deltasquid posted:A question re: modern fortifications, I feel like a lot of footage coming out of this war shows trenches that resemble moreso deep ditches than anything resembling bunkers or more connected trench systems. Is there a reason for that other than “shoddily and hastily thrown together at the frontline”? If Ukrainian forces push through a line like this tweet suggests: One of the things that I have found surprising is that even in year two of the war, and after seeing artillery and drone strikes destroy countless positions its exceptionally rare to have trenches with even basic sheet metal roofing. Even dugouts seem tiny and infrequent. It hasn't been clear to me if the relatively primitive trenchworks are a reflection of the untrained and unprepared soldiers in them or if it's that the actual intensity of fighting relative to the length of the front is so low most positions don't need anything more.
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Jun 11, 2023 02:42
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