(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Chalks posted:It took a few days but the Russians finally have a new set of Ukrainian losses to post: Apparently the losses include "three out of the six Leopard 2R mine-clearing vehicles Finland donated to Ukraine," which is rough. More or less the expected fate of breaching equipment, but losing that many in the same field is less than ideal.
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Jun 12, 2023 01:56
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buglord posted:So probably a dumb question in light of the past 5 pages, but are we past the “shaping operations” phase and into the counteroffensive now? Would Perun & Anders Puck Nielsen call this the counteroffensive? Probably, though shaping operations continue throughout an operation. I'm finding it interesting that Ukraine seems to be taking a play out of Soviet operations in 1943-1945. They're not quite attacking all along the front, but they are attacking along a lot of it. The idea is that doing so allows you to identify weak--or weaker--points in the defense. Where you have success, you punch a heavy mech force through, drive as far as you can, and then dig in. I'm curious to see what Ukraine does with a breakout, if one occurs.
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Jun 12, 2023 02:52
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https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1668049097012441095
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Jun 12, 2023 04:45
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"now" and "by the end of next year" seem like significantly different statements.
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Jun 12, 2023 04:46
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I really, really do not think this quote is correct. From February 2023: https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/ukraine-has-wait-key-systems-raytheon-ceo-says The idea that Raytheon can suddenly crank out 12x Patriot batteries per year and is giving 5 away does not really match historic trends. I think the reporter may have misunderstood what was said. quote:For NASAMS, six are on order for Ukraine, but “they won’t see those until starting this summer, probably through next year,” he says. Ukraine has received existing donated NASAMS, and officials have said they are highly effective at targeting Russian cruise missiles and UAVs.
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Jun 12, 2023 05:07
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"how is nobody talking about this?" he says, linking and quoting a loving wsj article. I swear, there is no clearer sign of bullshit than that Trumpian utterance.
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Jun 12, 2023 06:04
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CSM posted:It's from the same location where they lost the eight Bradleys and Leopards. Incredible but apparently true. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1668015787116752899
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Jun 12, 2023 08:15
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Russia might be worried. They're deploying Ted Rall cartoons to talk about Ukrainian Nazis.
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Jun 12, 2023 08:45
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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1668189934799273984 This is interesting given the advance is basically just collapsing a Russian salient. https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1667977837788184576 As illustrated quite nicely by defmon here, Ukraine are likely to liberate quite a few settlements in this area before Russia retreat to a more rational front line, and the majority of fortifications still lay behind that. It's strange to me that Russian propaganda channels would be claiming to be worried about this. From the fortifications it looks like falling back in this area is expected. They might just be exaggerating the situation to increase the glory later, but they usually minimize bad news.
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Jun 12, 2023 11:36
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The map images aren’t loading for me
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Jun 12, 2023 12:14
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Chalks posted:It's strange to me that Russian propaganda channels would be claiming to be worried about this. From the fortifications it looks like falling back in this area is expected. They might just be exaggerating the situation to increase the glory later, but they usually minimize bad news. In general, momentum is real force in war. Even if soldiers falling back to defensive fortifications, you aren't as well off as you will be if you hold those for a few weeks. Its a combination of morale, not yet fully understanding the enemy's possible routes of attack, troops either being too exhausted (if the retreating soldiers are expected to be a part), or too fresh (if not), and generally just a signal that the opposing force has a strong offensive in that area. Of course, its obviously not unstoppable, but it is worth having eyes on. But more specifically here, as far as I can tell from fortification maps, while several lines of defenses were prepared north of Tokmak, extending from the Dinipir to just a little west of the area shown in the recent captures. For whatever reason, near Staromlynivka, Russia has a single strong line with just a few forward fortifications. Those forward fortifications are likely falling, so if they pierce Staromlynivka it would be highly likely to snowball into something very major. Of course, the Russians could also just be exaggerating, but one shouldn't minimize the current push. It may not amount to much, or it could turn major. MegaZeroX fucked around with this message at 12:22 on Jun 12, 2023 |
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Jun 12, 2023 12:15
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MegaZeroX posted:Those forward fortifications are likely falling, so if they pierce Staromaiorske it would be highly likely to snowball into something very major. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667940048699011072/photo/1 Breaking through that will be important.
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Jun 12, 2023 12:23
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So isn't russia supposed to be blitzing out photos that prove Ukraine is crushed and the offensive is finito, because all I keep seeing is the same batch of mineslappers
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Jun 12, 2023 12:25
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CSM posted:Not really, Russia's main defensive line is south of that: Ah okay, thanks. I only saw the ISW image, which was much more zoomed out, so I had to take a guess. But still, the point holds that its somewhat worrying for the Russians.
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Jun 12, 2023 12:34
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Staluigi posted:So isn't russia supposed to be blitzing out photos that prove Ukraine is crushed and the offensive is finito, because all I keep seeing is the same batch of mineslappers Regular army units are probably under media blackout rules. If Kadyrov's tiktok Brigade gets sent there we will know more.
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Jun 12, 2023 12:51
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alex314 posted:Regular army units are probably under media blackout rules. If Kadyrov's tiktok Brigade gets sent there we will know more.
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Jun 12, 2023 13:01
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alex314 posted:Regular army units are probably under media blackout rules. If Kadyrov's tiktok Brigade gets sent there we will know more. It seems difficult to believe that Russia has suddenly developed great discipline or that they think keeping quiet about victories aids them in this situation. It's also hard to believe that only one Ukrainian advance suffered any losses though. Although if that were the case I guess it would explain the fretting by the propagandists.
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Jun 12, 2023 13:11
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The "Defensive Line" is meaningless. It only needs to be pieced in one location, which mechanized and armored thrusts were born to do, for the entire line to become unhinged. It does not matter if Tokmok is defended in depth by 3 lines if it can be cut off to the left or right of it towards the sea of Azov. The line's going to be as useful as the Maginot Line or the line at Al Alamien was. And the Russians do not have air superiority to do anything about it.
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Jun 12, 2023 13:20
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Vox Nihili posted:Apparently the losses include "three out of the six Leopard 2R mine-clearing vehicles Finland donated to Ukraine," which is rough. Sounds like they aren’t very good!
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Jun 12, 2023 13:29
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Tiny Timbs posted:Sounds like they aren’t very good! They were not lost to mines, but to the helicopter shooting atgms.
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Jun 12, 2023 13:43
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Tuna-Fish posted:They were not lost to mines, but to the helicopter shooting atgms. Hmm, is there a source for this? Not sure if I saw anything reliable about these details, might have just missed it though Which ATGMs would the Russian helicopters be using?
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Jun 12, 2023 15:11
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jaete posted:Hmm, is there a source for this? Not sure if I saw anything reliable about these details, might have just missed it though There was a video of a Ka-52 firing on them, I can't find it right now, but it's probably on /r/combatfootage . jaete posted:Which ATGMs would the Russian helicopters be using? LMUR.
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Jun 12, 2023 15:15
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Tuna-Fish posted:There was a video of a Ka-52 firing on them, I can't find it right now, but it's probably on /r/combatfootage . Nobody had any stingers in the area to shoot these down? Or could they fire these ATGMs from outside the effective range of stinger?
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Jun 12, 2023 15:33
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Kraftwerk posted:Nobody had any stingers in the area to shoot these down? Or could they fire these ATGMs from outside the effective range of stinger? Modern ATGMs often can outrange a stinger. And standing in observed open fields with stingers is bad for the stinger operator. And a MANPADS team taking cover among trees can mean their line of sight is kinda poo poo. It’s not a terribly easy problem, especially if the helos accept some risk during critical operations instead of the more risk averse flying we’ve often seen.
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Jun 12, 2023 15:49
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Kraftwerk posted:Nobody had any stingers in the area to shoot these down? Or could they fire these ATGMs from outside the effective range of stinger? AT-16 Scallion has a range of 10-12 km. Manpads top out at 7km. Also getting a lock that far away for IR missile would be unlikely. You would need something like SA-15 (Tor) and those systems are needed to also down cruise missiles.
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Jun 12, 2023 15:52
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Kraftwerk posted:Nobody had any stingers in the area to shoot these down? Or could they fire these ATGMs from outside the effective range of stinger? The footage showed it as firing from a very long way away (the flight time from launch to it even appearing in frame was very long). There is also footage of drone strikes on other elements of the convoy. From the footage of the Ukrainian perspective, it doesn't look like they're engaged up close at all. It seems like the lead elements (mine plows) were hit from extreme range, and other vehicles were hit by drones or struck mines while attempting to withdraw around disabled vehicles. *edit* added links, can't find the drone strike link but it's nothing too exciting. Chalks fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Jun 12, 2023 |
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Jun 12, 2023 16:15
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There's a bunch of videos on now closed reddits of Ka-52s sitting at what travel time suggests is 10-15km just plonking away at stuff. Moving your stuff into hostile territory is an entirely different beast compared to defending your own.
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Jun 12, 2023 16:16
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Kraftwerk posted:Nobody had any stingers in the area to shoot these down? Or could they fire these ATGMs from outside the effective range of stinger? MANPADS dont create a magical cone around your area that enemy aircraft can't fly into and if they do they are instantly shot down. Even if Ukrainian soldiers had some, maybe they didn't even know the Russian chopper was in the area until it was too late?
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Jun 12, 2023 16:17
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It’s not a big surprise that the other guys have guns too.
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Jun 12, 2023 17:03
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This is one of those 'death of the tank' things. You have Russian helicopters doing it here from beyond effective AA range, but NLOS Spikes have proliferated in many militaries with even longer ranges and can be ground launched (without even LOS, as the name implies.) There's no clear answer to this sort of threat other than effective active defense systems.
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Jun 12, 2023 17:11
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Comstar posted:The "Defensive Line" is meaningless. It only needs to be pieced in one location, which mechanized and armored thrusts were born to do, for the entire line to become unhinged. It does not matter if Tokmok is defended in depth by 3 lines if it can be cut off to the left or right of it towards the sea of Azov.  Two breakthroughs are much better at causing cascading failures in defensive lines. One breach can often be slowed and stopped by mobile reserves. Also, the Axis defensive line at Al Alamein was quite effective. I don't know that another 500,000 mines would have changed the eventual outcome. Keep in mind the British hundreds of tanks, including something like 80% of a single tank brigade. Defensive lines are absolutely useful, even in modern combat.
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Jun 12, 2023 17:20
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Comstar posted:The line's going to be as useful as the Maginot Line or the line at Al Alamien was. The Maginot line did actually work as intended by preventing the Germans from entering France that way. Where France hosed up was accounting for the porousness of the Franco-Belgian border.
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Jun 12, 2023 17:26
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Pope Hilarius II posted:The Maginot line did actually work as intended by preventing the Germans from entering France that way. Where France hosed up was accounting for the porousness of the Franco-Belgian border. And that was more of Belgium's fault, since Belgium wouldn't accept France having a solid defensive line that wouldn't include them. But they also didn't want France to be building defensive lines inside Belgium either, to protect their neutrality. And when war was declared against Belgium, they also didn't want France back hiding behind the line. MegaZeroX fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Jun 12, 2023 |
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Jun 12, 2023 17:31
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France hosed up a lot of things before and during the war. If I remember right, Germany had a hell of a time actually clearing Maginot bunkers.
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Jun 12, 2023 17:38
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alex314 posted:AT-16 Scallion has a range of 10-12 km. Manpads top out at 7km. Also getting a lock that far away for IR missile would be unlikely. I'm sorry but... like a green onion? I googled it quick and that doesn't seem to be a typo. I'm just kind of surprised by that name. If they make a smaller one, would it be called the CHIVE?
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Jun 12, 2023 17:45
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Xiahou Dun posted:I'm sorry but... like a green onion? I googled it quick and that doesn't seem to be a typo. I'm just kind of surprised by that name. Since when do weapons' system names make sense or obey the rule of cool? Little Boy and Fat Man? Geez. At least Project Pluto was named after an appropriate deity, but people chickened out of making the actual device.
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Jun 12, 2023 17:51
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If you're working on a super secret wunderwaffe that will blow everything else you have out of the water, you don't want to call it the "juggernaut" because then everyone will know just by the codename. I'm sure the DoD has some mathematical formula for picking project names or something. "Congrats on live-fire testing the Blueberry Muffin. I heard it went great."
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Jun 12, 2023 17:58
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Xiahou Dun posted:I'm sorry but... like a green onion? I googled it quick and that doesn't seem to be a typo. I'm just kind of surprised by that name. NATO codenames have some rules. AT missiles start with S, hence Sagger, Scalion, Sniper, Spriggan, Stabber,etc. E: those names are way better than 9M... codenames USSR had.
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Jun 12, 2023 17:59
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Learn something every day. Cool. Thanks, folks.
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Jun 12, 2023 18:04
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KillHour posted:If you're working on a super secret wunderwaffe that will blow everything else you have out of the water, you don't want to call it the "juggernaut" because then everyone will know just by the codename. I'm sure the DoD has some mathematical formula for picking project names or something. "Congrats on live-fire testing the Blueberry Muffin. I heard it went great." Tanks are called tanks because the UK told nearly everyone involved that the large plates of steel and such they were fabricating were for large mobile drinking water tanks to supply soldiers near the front lines.
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Jun 12, 2023 18:07
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