(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Dug up a Twitter thread last month going over what the Ukrainians are looking at in front of them. These defensive lines look to be more than a dozen km deep in places and the Ukrainians are sitting in front of zone 1 right now. Tough sledding ahead. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1655584386601951238.html
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Jun 12, 2023 18:28
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https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1668083952039362561?s=20&fbclid=IwAR0q_STUvsFJ3uX6supvf5XXZ14jEgW79hjO0H46SNreB-oiVDUBjXbwWQ8 Content of the article is fine, title of the article on Time's website is fine, but that's a big ol ooof for the headline on Twitter. Regarding the lost column, seems plausible that the other advancing armored columns may be seeing success because they do have more/better anti-air systems. Definitely something to note, there is a Stryker variant designed to provide medium-range AA, we probably need to send more of those. Western trainers are used to having very solid air cover, it's understandable they may have underestimated the amount of ground motorized AA needed for armored columns.
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Jun 12, 2023 18:52
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Orthanc6 posted:https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1668083952039362561?s=20&fbclid=IwAR0q_STUvsFJ3uX6supvf5XXZ14jEgW79hjO0H46SNreB-oiVDUBjXbwWQ8 I was wondering how you could say the title on the times article is fine because i presumed the title in the linked article is automatically taken from the actual article. I guess the actual articles title is “How Ukraine's Dam Collapse Could Have 'Generational' Consequences” And not the one shown in the preview in the tweet.
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Jun 12, 2023 20:13
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Xiahou Dun posted:Learn something every day. Cool.
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Jun 12, 2023 20:16
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Boris Galerkin posted:I was wondering how you could say the title on the times article is fine because i presumed the title in the linked article is automatically taken from the actual article. I guess the actual articles title is On most news websites articles often have several headlines. E.g., one to display on the website, one to surface on Apple News, one to show when sharing, etc., because they serve different functions and entice people to click in different contexts. Sometimes different people assign different headlines. Maybe someone's put the clickbaity one in the wrong field. Or they've already changed the one on the website, but didn't change the one for sharing.
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Jun 12, 2023 20:39
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Boris Galerkin posted:I was wondering how you could say the title on the times article is fine because i presumed the title in the linked article is automatically taken from the actual article. I guess the actual articles title is The preview is cached, otherwise Twitter would have to re-pull from the external site every single time someone views the tweet which would cause huge server load. So even if they have an "oh poo poo" moment and change it on the main site the preview will still show the old version until the cache expires (which could be a long time, or never).
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Jun 12, 2023 20:56
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Orthanc6 posted:
Those SHORAD Strykers just have Stingers, which as noted don't have enough range to be an effective deterrent. Most SHORAD systems, even ones specifically designed to protect armored columns, really aren't designed to cope with 10km+ range missile helos. Though at least with the helicopters forced to stay low by longer range air defense systems, they can't get the highest rated range out of their missiles either. TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Jun 12, 2023 |
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Jun 12, 2023 21:05
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Those SHORAD Strykers just have Stingers, which as noted don't have enough range to be an effective deterrent. Most SHORAD systems, even ones specifically designed to protect armored columns, really aren't designed to cope with 10km+ range missile helos. The Stinger pod can apparently be swapped with Hellfires (which can target helicopters IIRC although not at their full range) or AIM-9X Sidewinders which theoretically could hit a hovering helicopter at 10-12km.
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Jun 12, 2023 21:12
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F-117 code name was Have Blue. Most of their secret project names are some germane bullshit like that. e: cool thanks phone for waiting like 3 hours to post that
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Jun 12, 2023 21:14
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A big "16" on your radar warning receiver can be a dece deterrent too for helis
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Jun 12, 2023 21:15
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TK-42-1 posted:F-117 code name was Have Blue. Most of their secret project names are some germane bullshit like that. Not quite. Have Blue was the codename of the two sub-scale demonstration aircraft that were built before the Nighthawk contract was started. The codename of the F-117 itself was "Senior Trend". The best name of the program, however was the nickname the engineers gave to the wind tunnel and RCS test model that was built before any aircraft. They called it "Hopeless Diamond", as a pun referring to it's shape, the Hope Diamond, and how they thought it looked really unaerodynamic.
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Jun 12, 2023 21:28
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Tuna-Fish posted:.. and how they thought it looked really unaerodynamic. To their credit they were absolutely right.
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Jun 12, 2023 21:30
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DandyLion posted:To their credit they were absolutely right. Yea we crack on helicopters a lot (and rightfully so), but the F-117 spits in the face of god on behalf of the Wright brothers. Sikorsky didn’t believe in middlemen, and therefore decided to do it himself (until the designers of the Osprey started their dark rituals).
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Jun 12, 2023 21:40
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Orthanc6 posted:Regarding the lost column, seems plausible that the other advancing armored columns may be seeing success because they do have more/better anti-air systems. Definitely something to note, there is a Stryker variant designed to provide medium-range AA, we probably need to send more of those. Western trainers are used to having very solid air cover, it's understandable they may have underestimated the amount of ground motorized AA needed for armored columns.
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Jun 12, 2023 22:17
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Boris Galerkin posted:I was wondering how you could say the title on the times article is fine because i presumed the title in the linked article is automatically taken from the actual article. I guess the actual articles title is Paladinus posted:On most news websites articles often have several headlines. E.g., one to display on the website, one to surface on Apple News, one to show when sharing, etc., because they serve different functions and entice people to click in different contexts. Sometimes different people assign different headlines. Maybe someone's put the clickbaity one in the wrong field. Or they've already changed the one on the website, but didn't change the one for sharing. The original title really was "How Ukraine's Dam Collapse Could Become the Country's 'Chernobyl": https://web.archive.org/web/20230612023510/https://time.com/6286309/ukraine-dam-collapse-ecological-catastrophe/?linkId=219362770
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Jun 12, 2023 22:31
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MegaZeroX posted:And that was more of Belgium's fault, since Belgium wouldn't accept France having a solid defensive line that wouldn't include them. But they also didn't want France to be building defensive lines inside Belgium either, to protect their neutrality. And when war was declared against Belgium, they also didn't want France back hiding behind the line. Yes but the big German breakthrough was at Dinant to Sedan, which was French. What stuffed them up was not having strategic reserves and an ability to move them to the decisive point, along with the Germans have air superiority in the area they needed it. Now that I think of it, the battle will probably come down to if the Russians HAVE the reserves and fuel supplies and enough of them able to move to the right place in time. It's going to be tough without having control of the air to do it. I guess that's why the Ukranians defender Bakamunt for so long.
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Jun 12, 2023 23:24
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Comstar posted:Yes but the big German breakthrough was at Dinant to Sedan, which was French. Their refusal to use radios also was a massive disadvantage in several key battles.
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Jun 13, 2023 01:06
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Has this been discussed in the media other than Ukrainian news sites and Newsweek? Feel like this would have gotten more attention https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1668170229178937344 Ukraine says that Russia mined the Titan Plant and could blow it up
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Jun 13, 2023 01:11
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Any corroboration of this one? https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668369362422493190
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Jun 13, 2023 02:46
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Orthanc6 posted:https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1668083952039362561?s=20&fbclid=IwAR0q_STUvsFJ3uX6supvf5XXZ14jEgW79hjO0H46SNreB-oiVDUBjXbwWQ8  
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Jun 13, 2023 03:01
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Cable Guy posted:Yeah they updated the website article title... but it WAS the same when first posted. When I was younger and more dumb I thought everything that I read/heard about happening in the USSR happened “in Russia” but then again teenage me is not an editor for Time magazine, who I would hope knows better.
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Jun 13, 2023 03:06
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Cable Guy posted:Yeah they updated the website article title... but it WAS the same when first posted. I feel so bad for the author of that piece
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Jun 13, 2023 03:45
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Vox Nihili posted:Any corroboration of this one? The source seems to be the telegram channel @voenkorKotenok. They have 400k+ subscribers and are very pro-SMO so it would be weird if they were lying about it
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Jun 13, 2023 03:55
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Turkey has extracted its pound of flesh: Sweden To Extradite Self-proclaimed PKK Supporter To Turkey quote:Sweden on Monday agreed to extradite to Turkey a man convicted of drug trafficking who also supported the pro-Kurdish PKK, a first since Stockholm's NATO bid was stalled by Ankara.
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Jun 13, 2023 04:20
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Massive yikes
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Jun 13, 2023 04:34
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That’s very disappointing.
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Jun 13, 2023 04:35
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Deteriorata posted:Turkey has extracted its pound of flesh: Not really, this does nothing to satisfy Turkey's demands. Like the article states, the supreme court gave the permission for extradition and foreign minister didn't use veto power to stop it. But Turkey doesn't want courts to be in charge, they want the government to just send to Turkey anyone Erdogan demands.
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Jun 13, 2023 04:48
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Perhaps Sweden was holding out hope that those early election polls against Erdogan would hold out before capitulating on handing anyone over. Just didn’t work out how they hoped.
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Jun 13, 2023 04:53
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Nenonen posted:Not really, this does nothing to satisfy Turkey's demands. Like the article states, the supreme court gave the permission for extradition and foreign minister didn't use veto power to stop it. But Turkey doesn't want courts to be in charge, they want the government to just send to Turkey anyone Erdogan demands. Have you heard of the price of a pound of flesh in Turkey though? As of January, beef prices were up 400% compared to six years ago. Two months later, at the end of February, it had risen still by 50%. Turkey is very hungary for flesh.
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Jun 13, 2023 06:06
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Shifty Pony posted:Tanks are called tanks because the UK told nearly everyone involved that the large plates of steel and such they were fabricating were for large mobile drinking water tanks to supply soldiers near the front lines. Interesting, I believe the proto-tanks were called barrels? Also lol @ Time, truly The Internet Never Forgets.
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Jun 13, 2023 06:14
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Boris Galerkin posted:When I was younger and more dumb I thought everything that I read/heard about happening in the USSR happened “in Russia” but then again teenage me is not an editor for Time magazine, who I would hope knows better. Until my early 20s I told people I was 1/4 Russian, because my maternal grandmother fled the USSR after WW2 and my mom said she was Russian. Turns out grandma had lived a harder life than my mom thought, cause grandma was Ukrainian. She supposedly left behind her own mother and a sister, there may have been male siblings that didn't survive the holodomor/WW2. I often wonder if I have some distant blood relatives who're now fighting for their life again.
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Jun 13, 2023 06:46
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Willo567 posted:Has this been discussed in the media other than Ukrainian news sites and Newsweek? Feel like this would have gotten more attention Ukraine has been reporting such things on a regular basis and none have happened (except Kahovka dam if it was actually mined and even then it did not explode on schedule).
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Jun 13, 2023 06:48
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While we will not know until this war is over, I would not doubt that Russian commanders have orders to leave nothing behind that the Ukrainians can use if they have to fall back. So mining and booby trapping everything would be in order, and since we know Russian comms are in part comprimised there is also a good chance Ukraine knows that. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Jun 13, 2023 |
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Jun 13, 2023 06:57
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Dick Ripple posted:While we will not know until this war is over, I would not doubt that Russian commanders have orders to leave nothing behind that the Ukrainians can use if they have to fall back. So mining and booby trapping everything would be in order, and since we know Russian comms are in part comprimised there is also a good chance Ukraine knows that. Crimea is not in immediate danger of being retaken for a long time from now
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Jun 13, 2023 07:22
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According to Oryx, confirmed military equipment losses are roughly equal on both sides in the past week  (compiled from here https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html)
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Jun 13, 2023 13:23
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nimby posted:Until my early 20s I told people I was 1/4 Russian, because my maternal grandmother fled the USSR after WW2 and my mom said she was Russian. A couple of years ago my mom found out from 23andMe that her mom's father was not the man either she or my grandmother thought she was. As it turns out my great grandmother slept with a Jewish Ukrainian boxer on an ocean liner going from New York to Cherbourg (my great grandmother was an American patient of Carl Jung). The man later settled in the United States. I often think about how lovely this man's life in Ukraine was as both a Jew and someone who experienced the beginning of Stalinism. I wouldn't call myself part Ukrainian though, as I am much more the inheritor of the culture of the man who I assumed was my great grandfather most of life. It did kind of make sense though that in my early 20s I worked in a gas station in a neighborhood with a number of both Russian and Ukrainian ex-pats, who would routinely come into my gas station and just start trying to speak Russian with me. When I told them I did not speak Russian, I was always told "you look exactly like a Russian." Which at the time I thought was very odd. I also still do not think I look very Russian, and I think I look more like my Dutch heritage--which incidentally any time I am in the Netherlands, everyone tries to speak with me in Dutch.
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Jun 13, 2023 14:13
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1668608252295147521
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Jun 13, 2023 14:19
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nimby posted:I often wonder if I have some distant blood relatives who're now fighting for their life again. I don't have any distant relatives fighting for their life. It's not the same at all but in grad school I knew a guy from Ukraine who was a friend of a friend and hung out in our group now and then. I actually logged back onto my Facebook to see if I could contact him or my old friends who knew him, and I've also searched LinkedIn and reached out to old friends to see if they knew how he was doing, but sadly it seems like everyone I knew lost touch with him over time (it's been over a decade). I really hope he's doing ok. Best case scenario would be if he stayed in the country we did grad school in and set up a life there in the decade since. I'll imagine that's what happened since I don't know otherwise. 
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Jun 13, 2023 14:19
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Paladinus posted:According to Oryx, confirmed military equipment losses are roughly equal on both sides in the past week Equal losses for a defender behind well prepared lines in a peer-to-peer conflict is.... not good.
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Jun 13, 2023 15:07
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lilljonas posted:Equal losses for a defender behind well prepared lines in a peer-to-peer conflict is.... not good. At the same time, not dramatically unusual. The "standard" is that you need 3-to-1 odds as the attacker (10-to-1 in urban terrain), but that doesn't necessarily mean you "typically" suffer three times the casualties. Still, if accurate it's cautiously promising. I still think it's too early to assess, though.
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Jun 13, 2023 15:26
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