(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
Yeah, that's a pretty good ratio to achieve for Ukraine on the offensive, compared to the 3-10:1 ratios we saw reported when the Russians were on the offensive. That said, I hope they have enough materiel that it can be sustained long enough.
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 15:28
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 08:12 |
|
|
The problem might be that the Russians lost old junk and the Ukrainians lost some more valuable stuff, like the demining vehicles?
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 15:42
|
|
|
Eh, def newer stuff in there too
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 15:48
|
|
|
mrfart posted:The problem might be that the Russians lost old junk and the Ukrainians lost some more valuable stuff, like the demining vehicles? It's like one set of photos. From 3 days ago now.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 15:49
|
|
|
They also haven't hit the actual main fortifications which could absolutely complicate things.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 15:55
|
|
|
MikeC posted:It's like one set of photos. From 3 days ago now. There is a comprehensive list in my post.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 15:56
|
|
|
It's confirmed pictures in social media, and only vehicles and such. It tells us nothing significant, especially this early in an operation. It's like trying to predict how WW1 will go from the speed that forces advanced in the first weeks of the war.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:01
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:There is a comprehensive list in my post. Was referring to the demining equipment. The nature of using western gear is that it will feel like they are losing more valuable stuff vis a vis the Russians when the fact is the loss ratios not being lopsided is good news at this early stage. It is encouraging that the Russians don't have a ton of vids being spammed right now. ISW reports that Russians are encountering a lot of night attacks which might account for this.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:02
|
|
|
A captured T-80 using an 80s thermal sight, interesting if this extends to the rest of Russian equipment. Ukraine might actually have a real advantage in night fighting now compared to the winter offensive that never materialized. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668359262358102021?cxt=HHwWioCz6Zz6macuAAAA https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668359275209453570?cxt=HHwWhMCzyfz6macuAAAA
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:06
|
|
|
Reuters is putting out reports now that Russia has captured a few leopards and Bradley’s. Based on the videos floating out there the engines are still running on some of these vehicles which shows how fast the Ukrainians got out. That’s really embarrassing, you got all this hot new Western tech and you are losing it as easily and quickly as the Russian equipment Ukraine started the war with. This wouldn’t be so bad if they had hundreds more tanks but it seems this offensive isn’t resourced enough to deal with the Russian prepared defences. You’ve got never ending minefields, anti tank ditches and pre sighted artillery with hidden positions that have ATGMs. Let’s not forget the Russian air support. The offensive looks like WW1 tactics only with mechanized units being chewed up for little gain. Again maybe these tactics are necessary and could yield fruit. But Ukraine can’t sustain these losses because there aren’t enough of these western vehicles and the time it took to train/get them was prohibitive. If they lose too much the war may end with territorial concessions unless the Ukrainians can win more confidence from western countries. Losses are inevitable but it doesn’t seem like there’s enough resources to do what Ukraine wants.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:07
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Reuters is putting out reports now that Russia has captured a few leopards and Bradley’s. Based on the videos floating out there the engines are still running on some of these vehicles which shows how fast the Ukrainians got out. Were you genuinely expecting them to lose none of these vehicles?
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:14
|
|
|
lilljonas posted:... peer-to-peer conflict ... This is a stupid nitpick, but it's peer conflict. Peer to peer conflict is presumably something related to internet piracy.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:19
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Were you genuinely expecting them to lose none of these vehicles? Losses were to be expected. But when you have a field of like 10 western armored vehicles decimated by Russians that’s a loving turkey shoot. Consider that Ukraine was given 100 Bradleys and just lost 16 in less than a week of fighting for like 90km of gains and not having even reached the serious defences the Russians have. That means they could lose most of their western AFVs within a month of fighting. Now what? I’m willing to concede that maybe those losses are initial and there could be a serious break in Russian lines. But to me it seems more likely that Ukraine is gonna chew through equipment faster than the west can or wants to supply.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:25
|
|
|
I remember from War on the Rocks that a big fear people like Kofman had was that Ukraine would not be as tactically innovative or successful due to earlier casualties causing leadership vacancies that would be filled-up by people more steeped in old Soviet military doctrine. Also, if you also think about how rushed all the training must be for using this new equipment and you have to depend on a bunch of new, non-professional soldiers you've called up under a time of extreme stress, I'm not surprised that casualties and equipment losses might be really high. Hope Ukraine can get something out of this offensive, but I'm not expecting any easy Hollywood stuff this time around.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:30
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Reuters is putting out reports now that Russia has captured a few leopards and Bradley’s. Inaccurate. Reuters writes that the Russian MOD claims to have captured those vehicles and released a short video showing Russian soldiers next to the vehicles, seemingly right after they were destroyed / disabled. Taking a couple of selfies in front of a vehicle is not same as capturing said vehicle. And the Russian MOD has not exactly been truthful in the past, so we shouldn't give them the benefit of the doubt. For reference, this is the video they released. That's really stretching the meaning of the word "captured". https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1668613644190466049?s=20 beer_war fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Jun 13, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:43
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Losses were to be expected. But when you have a field of like 10 western armored vehicles decimated by Russians that’s a loving turkey shoot. How many vehicles do you think would participate in an assault like this and how many do you think would normally be lost should that push fail? Do you think an armored assault would stop and withdraw after losing 2 or 3 IFVs? Where is the line for this?
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:53
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:That means they could lose most of their western AFVs within a month of fighting. Now what? I’m willing to concede that maybe those losses are initial and there could be a serious break in Russian lines. But to me it seems more likely that Ukraine is gonna chew through equipment faster than the west can or wants to supply. I think we found the one guy who the Russians keep releasing videos for. But yes the Ukrainians are gonna exhaust their material for this offensive at some point and wait for resupply for another go until one side gives. That's pretty much how war goes and shouldn't be a revelation to anybody.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 16:59
|
|
|
A recent Perun video pointed out that the existence of a long pipeline of pledged equipment from the west means that Ukraine can afford to take losses. If two dozen Bradleys get wrecked in a battle that's not too bad because another shipment of Bradleys will be arriving next week. As frustrating as the west's slow drip of material support can be, it also weirdly gives the Ukrainians some room to maneuver and conduct operations and take risks, because they know their losses will be made good.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:04
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Losses were to be expected. But when you have a field of like 10 western armored vehicles decimated by Russians that’s a loving turkey shoot. 90 km of gains? What on earth are you reading. If they actually did get 90km of gains on any axis with a loss of only 20% of their armor it would mean that the RUF had basically collapsed.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:11
|
|
|
It was 90 square km, right? Which is basically just a patch of the front but hasn't penetrated that far in.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:13
|
|
|
Saladman posted:90 km of gains? What on earth are you reading. If they actually did get 90km of gains on any axis with a loss of only 20% of their armor it would mean that the RUF had basically collapsed. Also worth pointing out that this isn't 16% of their armour, it's 16% of their Bradleys. They clearly partition the mess of western equipment up sensibly so individual units don't have a mixture of stuff. The armoured push that failed was one that used Bradleys, so the losses included a bunch of those, but a failed push is always going to involve a bunch of poo poo you pushed with getting destroyed. This could just have easily been a unit with some other IFV and they would have lost zero Bradleys, this incident would have precisely the same significance.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:19
|
|
|
We still haven't seen any of the Challengers in action, for example.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:21
|
|
|
beer_war posted:Inaccurate. So people in the comments claim these are the same vehicles again?
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:21
|
|
|
mrfart posted:So people in the comments claim these are the same vehicles again? They are, but the footage is significant since it shows that the Ukrainians were unable to recover the vehicles at a later point, which was always a possibility until now. Also, for some context when we're talking about losing 16 Bradleys https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1668642065343733760
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:31
|
|
|
Looking at that list, the radar for the IRIS-T might be worse than the Bradley losses for UA. That system seems to be critically important atm. The Buratino seems like an important loss for Russia too. I believe someone posted an article a few days ago arguing that they are very important for Russia right now for blocking breakthroughs. (The Ukrainians bailed on their bogged down vehicles for the same reasons the Russians do - they're artillery targets, and the TOS-1 is a rather more dangerous piece of artillery than most.)
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:33
|
|
|
Any single vehicle doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Really any handful of vehicles as seen on Twitter do not matter.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 17:34
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:Looking at that list, the radar for the IRIS-T might be worse than the Bradley losses for UA. That system seems to be critically important atm. For what it´s worth, the entry in Oryxs list referred to a video posted by Ukraine Weapons Tracker who in an update said - somewhat cryptically - no radar was actually damaged: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1668227846039322624?cxt=HHwWgIC2-eSY3qYuAAAA
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 18:46
|
|
|
SMO has finally successfully denazified Ukrainian soil! https://twitter.com/Tagesspiegel/status/1668591067606704131 According to German Tagesspiegel there's a video going around in Ukrainian social media claiming that the Kakhovka dam burst revealed in the now unflooded part of the Kakhovka reservoir three skulls lying in mud, one of which has a WW2 German helmet. Yeaaaah...  I'm gonna be a little skeptical until some field archeologist or anyone at all has gone to look at the said skulls. It's absolutely possible that there would have been bodies buried in the reservoir area only found now, but my gut feel is that stuff that has been buried in mud for 80 years is going to look more like a blob of mud than anything recognizable, and it's also more likely buried deep in the said mud.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 18:53
|
|
|
says a lot that after a week of offensive russia is still desperately posting new angles of a single field as evidence that they're doing great, trust us. most notable thing about that loss of vehicles in a field btw is that they're not surrounded by bodies because the crews largely got out alive. if it was bmp2s and some t72s it wouldn't be the same story. it's a good example of how literally aid saves lives
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 19:02
|
|
|
Popete posted:Any single vehicle doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Really any handful of vehicles as seen on Twitter do not matter. Also Bradleys just break when you shoot at them or when they drive into mines. That's what any IFV* will do, the only way to avoid that is to avoid situations where IFVs might be shot at or be driven into mines. Which is easier if you have a vastly superior army as well as air domination and can run circles around your enemy and destroy them from distance. In an actual peer to peer conflict this is not possible, and Ukraine and Russia are not really peers either. * or AFV in general, but tanks at least have a higher chance of surviving
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 19:05
|
|
|
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-says-russia-loses-tanks-as-ukraine-steps-up-offensive-891507a3 Pay walled but Putin acknowledges 54 tanks lost in the counter offensive among other things.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 19:05
|
|
|
ESDK posted:For what it´s worth, the entry in Oryxs list referred to a video posted by Ukraine Weapons Tracker who in an update said - somewhat cryptically - no radar was actually damaged: There was a post I saw a few days ago that I can't find right now Nenonen posted:According to German Tagesspiegel there's a video going around in Ukrainian social media claiming that the Kakhovka dam burst revealed in the now unflooded part of the Kakhovka reservoir three skulls lying in mud, one of which has a WW2 German helmet. Yeaaaah... This stuff is incredible, mud can preserve things pretty well if it's not oxygenated. Check out these flintlock pistols that were also apparently found: https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1668195713979764745 MikeC posted:https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-says-russia-loses-tanks-as-ukraine-steps-up-offensive-891507a3 Oryx responded to this saying their count is less than 10 Given that Russia tends to downplay losses, the implications of this figure is... wow. Especially coupled with the lack of Russian footage of Ukrainian losses besides that one incident Chalks fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Jun 13, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 19:06
|
|
|
Chalks posted:This stuff is incredible, mud can preserve things pretty well if it's not oxygenated. For real, I got a chance to see the Stele of Thonis-Heracleion, which lay face down in clay and mud for 2300 years and looks like it was laser-carved yesterday.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 19:23
|
|
|
Moon Slayer posted:For real, I got a chance to see the Stele of Thonis-Heracleion, which lay face down in clay and mud for 2300 years and looks like it was laser-carved yesterday. can you imagine pulling something like this out of the ocean? it looks brand new. 
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 19:26
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Given that Russia tends to downplay losses, the implications of this figure is... wow. Especially coupled with the lack of Russian footage of Ukrainian losses besides that one incident Or Putin calls any vehicle with some armour a tank.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 19:42
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:Or Putin calls any vehicle with some armour a tank. thinking exactly this
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 19:42
|
|
|
I'm mildly curious, how do less-than-APC modern vehicles like MRAPs compare to ancient Soviet stuff like BMP-1s, as far as protected mobility is concerned? Is it even possible to make a meaningful comparison?
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 20:12
|
|
|
Good news, 15 more bradleys are being sent to Ukraine. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3426389/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ Also some people seem to believe the western equipment is more survivable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667562027202535424?cxt=HHwWgICzhYS1r6QuAAAA
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 20:22
|
|
|
Hannibal Rex posted:I'm mildly curious, how do less-than-APC modern vehicles like MRAPs compare to ancient Soviet stuff like BMP-1s, as far as protected mobility is concerned? Is it even possible to make a meaningful comparison? The newer stuff is better on the protection side with better protection from shock and spall for the people inside, less chance of burning everyone alive if the fuel lights up, better escape options to improve the odds of escaping stricken vehicle, etc. Both are similarly protected against light arms and vulnerable to heavier stuff.
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 20:28
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 08:12 |
|
|
WarpedLichen posted:Also some people seem to believe the western equipment is more survivable. Most IFV's are definitely less cramped than a BMP. This makes it quicker to evacuate when hit, especially if you or one of your squad buddies on your way were injured. OTOH all infantry fighting vehicles tend to bear lots of ammunition (big boom) with lots of people carried inside, with only the lightest armour. So it's like saying some car model has a higher chance than another to survive getting hit by a bullet train. (  )
|
|
#
?
Jun 13, 2023 20:38
|
|