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fatherboxx)
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Willo567 posted:Zelensky says that Russia is preparing a terrorist plot at ZPP to release radiation He's been saying this for a year now.
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Jun 22, 2023 11:31
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TheRat posted:He's been saying this for a year now. Not to mention "considering a scenario" is quite different from "preparing".
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Jun 22, 2023 11:40
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#Russian_Federation_(1991%E2%80%93present) Russia will not stop until it is stopped. Every time they get away with taking land, killing civilians and flattening cities, they confirm their way works and is rewarding. Even now, they gamble that the pushback they receive is all politics and when "The Ukraine" or "The Special Operations Area" is taken the sanctions will be lifted and the US and EU will go back acting like nothing happened. We may finally have some politicians in the EU that realize that if things keep going like this then at some point there will be Russian troops in East Germany again. Salami tactics and all that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o861Ka9TtT4&t=55s
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Jun 22, 2023 12:06
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Like the Kakhovka dam, you can't say that Russians wouldn't do something deeply regrettable and stupid, but there's not much useful information in these announcements. Putin can do whatever he likes at the power plant, but whether he does or not and when he does it, we don't know and have little ways to influence. But so far Russians have avoided creating nuclear disasters even though they could have bombed any of the nuclear power plants still under Ukraine's control, so maybe it's just a little bit too much. Putin and his lackeys witnessed Chernobyl's consequences, after all, so it might be a similar effect as Hitler being too disgusted by chemical weapons to authorize their use.
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Jun 22, 2023 12:15
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Nenonen posted:But so far Russians have avoided creating nuclear disasters even though they could have bombed any of the nuclear power plants still under Ukraine's control, so maybe it's just a little bit too much. Putin and his lackeys witnessed Chernobyl's consequences, after all, so it might be a similar effect as Hitler being too disgusted by chemical weapons to authorize their use. They did assault and shoot 30mm rounds at the Administration building while being told to stop shooing the nuclear power plant. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLpP7cniI8k "Stop shooting at the nuclear hazardous facility. Stop it!"
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Jun 22, 2023 12:26
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Comstar posted:They did assault and shoot 30mm rounds at the Administration building while being told to stop shooing the nuclear power plant. That's small fry.
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Jun 22, 2023 12:35
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Nenonen posted:Like the Kakhovka dam, you can't say that Russians wouldn't do something deeply regrettable and stupid, but there's not much useful information in these announcements. Putin can do whatever he likes at the power plant, but whether he does or not and when he does it, we don't know and have little ways to influence. It's weird that Putin managed it, but we're finally at the "gotta hand it to Adolf Hitler" leagues Horrible job, hope you see a long hearing in Hague, Vlad!
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Jun 22, 2023 12:59
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:ukraine used a storm shadow to hit the chonhar bridge Map for reference   It doesn't look like there's separate bridges for each direction, but there is a parallel bridge next to the E105 road bridge which looks like older version and slightly narrower. Is it in good enough shape to take increased traffic, including tanks? Guess we'll find out. That Ukraine didn't knock them both out might suggest that they don't think the old bridge can carry the weight. Russian engineer troops can build a temporary pontoon bridge anyway. The strait is so shallow (under 3 metres) that they could even just build a temporary berm road. But this does carry a great significance in that it shows that Ukraine can penetrate Russian air defenses. Russia needs to protect the remaining routes much better or it will happen again and then they will have to take a great detour or start using the Arabat Spit dogshit road 
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Jun 22, 2023 13:16
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According to Russian news, the second bridge was also hit. E: \/\/\/ Can't find the video on Izevestia's website anymore. Was reposted here: https://t.me/marshalvdv/21092 Paladinus fucked around with this message at 13:29 on Jun 22, 2023 |
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Jun 22, 2023 13:19
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Paladinus posted:According to Russian news, the second bridge was also hit. Well well well...  I missed that somehow. Then it's going to be some sweaty days for the Russian engineering corps and major congestions on alternative roads.
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Jun 22, 2023 13:26
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Nenonen posted:Well well well... See my edit. Maybe Izvestia told more than they were supposed to, but you can definitely see some damage on the second bridge. The Russia-appointed governor says it will take several weeks to repair the bridge, but if the Kerch bridge is anything to go by, it will take at least twice that time.
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Jun 22, 2023 13:33
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If they want to repair it they will have to first make sure that it can't be hit again...
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Jun 22, 2023 13:48
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Rappaport posted:It's weird that Putin managed it, but we're finally at the "gotta hand it to Adolf Hitler" leagues Ukrainian writers Ogarkova and Yermolenk already beat Nenonen to the punch. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/11/ecocide-russia-ukraine-war-kakhovka-dam-destroyed What lies behind Russia’s acts of extreme violence? Freudian analysis offers an answer Peter Pomerantsev Sun 11 Jun 2023 10.01 BST As they try to make sense of the evil bearing down on their country, Ogarkova and Yermolenko note the difference between Hitler and Stalin: while Nazis had some rules about who they punished (non-Aryans; communists) in Stalin’s terror anyone could be a victim at any moment. Rappaport posted:Horrible job, hope you see a long hearing in Hague, Vlad! If Putin were still capable of coherent thought in that feral dementia-riddled brain of his, he'd apply to enlist in the American military. That way, if he were sent to the Hague, the US would be obliged to invade the Hague to free him. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 22, 2023 14:10
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Here's a statement from the IAEA yesterday regarding the ZPP and mines thereIAEA posted:The IAEA is aware of reports of mines having been placed near the cooling pond. No mines were observed at the site during the Director General’s visit, including the cooling pond. However, the IAEA is aware of previous placement of mines outside the plant perimeter, which the Agency has previously reported, and also at particular places inside - which security personnel at the plant explained were for defensive purposes. “Our assessment of those particular placements was that while the presence of any explosive device is not in line with safety standards, the main safety functions of the facility would not be significantly affected. We are following the issue with great attention,” Director General Grossi said.
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Jun 22, 2023 14:28
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fizzy posted:What lies behind Russia’s acts of extreme violence? Freudian analysis offers an answer Love when people who spent a decade working on Russian TV during formative years of Putin's regime now write about deep and unique freudian darkness at the heart of russian national character
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Jun 22, 2023 14:50
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fatherboxx posted:Love when people who spent a decade working on Russian TV during formative years of Putin's regime now write about deep and unique freudian darkness at the heart of russian national character Well, to be fair, Russian TV pretty much is the darkness at heart of Russian society (not sure if it's very unique or Freudian, though).
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Jun 22, 2023 15:03
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Paladinus posted:Putin has signed a law that pressures people living in occupied areas either to accept Russian citizenship or to leave. A follow up to this. DNR's leader Pushilin a couple of days ago announced creation of what is generously called 'a temporary detention facility for foreigners subject to deportation'. https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18067997 Took them a while for some reason. They're supposed to start deporting people in a week, and they don't even have an internment camp ready.
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Jun 22, 2023 15:52
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Paladinus posted:See my edit. Maybe Izvestia told more than they were supposed to, but you can definitely see some damage on the second bridge. This is now confirmed by satellite images https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1671893993595211785 *edit* Elsewhere on the front line, this seems like big news if confirmed https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1671909322891096068 The quality of the Russian 2014 fortifications has always been pretty unclear but I think most people assume they're considerably better than elsewhere and may be a major obstacle for Ukraine. Maybe it's not so bad? Chalks fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Jun 22, 2023 |
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Jun 22, 2023 16:49
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Michael Koffman believes that the bulk of supplies for Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia is coming from Crimea and not from Luhask and the "land bridge". He's doubtful that Ukraine reaching e.g. Melitopol alone results in all of the Russians west of Melitopol suddenly being cut off. If he's correct, then hitting the bridges coming out of Crimea may be a fairly big deal. Russia has lots of other options for supplying their troops--such as the ports on the Sea of Azov--but it's one more dilemma for a logistics organization which is hopefully being stretched in many ways.
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Jun 22, 2023 17:08
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In the latest cit team update I see this mentioned: https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jun-20-21 quote:The Russian Federation Council [upper house of the Federal Assembly of Russia] approved bills allowing citizens with a criminal record to sign contracts with the Russian Army and allowing for the release from liability of mobilized and contract soldiers convicted of crimes of minor and moderate severity. You can learn more about the amendments in yesterday's summary. Feels like they are continuing to expand the potential recruitment pool, has the extensive use of ex-cons changed the views of the Russian public on the military at all? Not sure if people are thinking its ok that the undesirables of society are doing the dying.
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Jun 22, 2023 17:14
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Ynglaur posted:Michael Koffman believes that the bulk of supplies for Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia is coming from Crimea and not from Luhask and the "land bridge". He's doubtful that Ukraine reaching e.g. Melitopol alone results in all of the Russians west of Melitopol suddenly being cut off. If he's correct, then hitting the bridges coming out of Crimea may be a fairly big deal. Russia has lots of other options for supplying their troops--such as the ports on the Sea of Azov--but it's one more dilemma for a logistics organization which is hopefully being stretched in many ways. Every additional hour of delay in the logistics train will help.
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Jun 22, 2023 17:31
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WarpedLichen posted:In the latest cit team update I see this mentioned: The purpose of the bill is finally legalizing the suicide squad recruitment + putting them under MOD control and, presumably, oversight (haha). Previously, Wagner just picked convicts without any authority and just dumped the giant pack of pardons on the Putin's table to sign. Unclear how deep is the recruitment pool right now because prisoners are well informed about life expectancy of applicants and dealing with the state directly may be a deal-breaker for them as opposed to signing with, by all accounts, a criminal enterprise. At least in my hometown the return of a pretty famous convict (murdered a single father in broad daylight over a disagreement in school parents whatsapp chat about two years ago) got attention even in neutral (not usually critical of the government) regional media. Other local cases across the country (here is a village grandma killer! he is back and and has a medal) had similar reaction so I am sure it concerned the authorities.
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Jun 22, 2023 17:34
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fatherboxx posted:The purpose of the bill is finally legalizing the suicide squad recruitment + putting them under MOD control and, presumably, oversight (haha). Previously, Wagner just picked convicts without any authority and just dumped the giant pack of pardons on the Putin's table to sign. Unclear how deep is the recruitment pool right now because prisoners are well informed about life expectancy of applicants and dealing with the state directly may be a deal-breaker for them as opposed to signing with, by all accounts, a criminal enterprise. Bit weird to think the big blowback is that the convicts didn't get killed and instead surviving to be released as promised.
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Jun 22, 2023 17:41
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Chalks posted:Elsewhere on the front line, this seems like big news if confirmed NOEL is trash so better wait for a proper source Electric Wrigglies posted:Bit weird to think the big blowback is that the convicts didn't get killed and instead surviving to be released as promised. Well, convicts have a pretty poo poo reputation in society and those who immediately start raising hell or acting like they own the place get attention. Especially since people who went to jail for 2-3 years for stealing or scamming are usually not the ones who rush to roll their luck on the frontline.
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Jun 22, 2023 17:47
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So is Ukraine putting out ads for Ford now? https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1671748180298326016?cxt=HHwWgICziZuHn7MuAAAA
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Jun 22, 2023 18:27
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fatherboxx posted:NOEL is trash so better wait for a proper source Have they been wrong before on stuff?
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Jun 22, 2023 18:42
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Willo567 posted:Have they been wrong before on stuff? Have you?
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Jun 22, 2023 18:43
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Willo567 posted:Have they been wrong before on stuff? They are fall more on the sensational spectrum of twitter accounts that do tracking on events. They are typically faster on reporting at the cost of accuracy in details. They are also unabashedly pro Ukrainian with no attempt at balance so you will typically only get good news from them and they will skip all the bad news. Also lots of memes about how Russian forces are going to get it good or will fall apart any day now type tweets.
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Jun 22, 2023 18:53
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Willo567 posted:Have they been wrong before on stuff? It is generally a very clickbaity news account that rarely posts a source and a lot of their posts are rumours/bullshit
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Jun 22, 2023 19:00
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I guess it's a good reminder that ammunition production still hasn't ramped up 100% in the west. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s-ramps-up-howitzer-shell-production-to-supply-ukraine-replenish-stockpiles-1e6dce54 quote:LE BOURGET, France—The U.S. has sharply increased production of a key artillery shell, helping to alleviate a global shortage of the ammunition that threatened to squeeze Ukrainian forces as they battle Russia, the U.S. Army’s acquisition chief said. I think earlier in the year some reports were saying Ukraine was using up to 3,000 shells a day which was still a fraction of what Russia was using. It will be interesting to see how this balance shakes out during this offensive, with shell hunger affecting the Russians and Ukrainians using what stockpile they have. The EU pledged 1,000,000 shells in a year back in March, so I wonder how those supply chains are shaping up. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/06/19/behind-europes-ammo-pledge-to-ukraine-some-manufacturers-grow-leery/ According to that, Rheinmetall CEO is fairly optimistic and claims a capacity of 450,000 shells a year with SAAB also forecasting 400,000 shells (by early 2025). I guess it remains to be seen if that is forecast capacity or not.
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Jun 22, 2023 20:46
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i found it interesting that in a recent war on the rocks podcast the opinion was expressed that ukrainian forces were less shell starved than they were 9 months ago, and ground artillery usage was closer to parity on the southern front. maybe lots of stockpiling prior to the offensive, maybe the shell pipeline from the west is increasing significantly
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Jun 22, 2023 20:54
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The "holy poo poo, in a near-peer war we'd run out of ammo fast" realization is definitely one of the big lessons observing this war has taught the Weat.
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Jun 22, 2023 20:56
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Here's a fascinating video claiming to be footage of Russians attempting to shoot down a Storm Shadow. Looks like they fire two missiles but can't hit it. https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1671965086959673357 Has anyone seen anything about why Russian AD systems have such trouble with these and HIMARS? When the Patriot batteries shot down Russian Kinzhals there were lots of people saying it doesn't matter how fast a missile goes as long as your interceptor can get there first. The Storm Shadow in this footage doesn't seem to have any countermeasures or do any sort of obvious evasion, so why do the Russians have such trouble with it?
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Jun 22, 2023 20:57
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Moon Slayer posted:The "holy poo poo, in a near-peer war we'd run out of ammo fast" realization is definitely one of the big lessons observing this war has taught the Weat. Hell the European NATO countries should have learned this lesson over Libya in 2014 (when they ran out of ammo) but they apparently did not.
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Jun 22, 2023 20:57
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Chalks posted:Here's a fascinating video claiming to be footage of Russians attempting to shoot down a Storm Shadow. Looks like they fire two missiles but can't hit it. Flies much lower and is presumably significantly harder to detect on radar so more difficult to react. Those engagements were pretty drat close. Id imagine 1 was intercepted, 1 hit bridge. Versus a top-tier SHORAD system thats a very good result.
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Jun 22, 2023 21:00
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Dandywalken posted:Flies much lower and is presumably significantly harder to detect on radar so more difficult to react. Those engagements were pretty drat close. There were two confirmed bridge hits based on satellite images, although out of how many missiles (and how many decoys) who knows.
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Jun 22, 2023 21:01
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Chalks posted:Here's a fascinating video claiming to be footage of Russians attempting to shoot down a Storm Shadow. Looks like they fire two missiles but can't hit it. not an super knowledgeable, but it could be a question of aspect. the thermal image looks like they're firing to intercept from roughly 45 degree angle, while the kinzhals were targeted at the patriot batteries themselves and presumably offered a more head on intercept. it's easier to get in front of something coming directly at you than to get in front of something that's quickly going to be moving away from you
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Jun 22, 2023 21:02
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:not an super knowledgeable, but it could be a question of aspect. the thermal image looks like they're firing to intercept from roughly 45 degree angle, while the kinzhals were targeted at the patriot batteries themselves and presumably offered a more head on intercept. it's easier to get in front of something coming directly at you than to get in front of something that's quickly going to be moving away from you For $15M, it needs to be better than that.
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Jun 22, 2023 21:07
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Chalks posted:Has anyone seen anything about why Russian AD systems have such trouble with these and HIMARS? When the Patriot batteries shot down Russian Kinzhals there were lots of people saying it doesn't matter how fast a missile goes as long as your interceptor can get there first. The Storm Shadow in this footage doesn't seem to have any countermeasures or do any sort of obvious evasion, so why do the Russians have such trouble with it? Isn't the HIMAR problem a different problem than the Storm Shadow? I imagine its a much smaller rocket and with a shorter range, so it is in the air for a shorter time and harder to react to. I thought it also got launched in salvos. Seems ineffective to shoot those down rather than down them some other way (like jamming): https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
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Jun 22, 2023 21:11
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Moon Slayer posted:The "holy poo poo, in a near-peer war we'd run out of ammo fast" realization is definitely one of the big lessons observing this war has taught the Weat. KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Hell the European NATO countries should have learned this lesson over Libya in 2014 (when they ran out of ammo) but they apparently did not. It's more like every war "the West" has had in the 20th and 21st century that was more than just counter-insurgency stuff. It really shouldn't be surprising anyone.
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Jun 22, 2023 21:28
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