(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
|
isn't it still just Senate proposal?
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:18 |
|
|
# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:58 |
|
Dwesa posted:isn't it still just Senate proposal? That it is! But i suspect it will pass, being bipartisan and all that: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672029829573787648 I may have misread it a little bit, i thought it was a done deal to be fair.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:24 |
|
wonder if we can get bobo to vote for it if crossshitfit won't
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:28 |
|
Its a risky move. Certain parties in the US may be willing to make these symbolic political gestures that they consider an incident like that to be a red line that is Article 5 worthy, but would all of NATO? Would Germany, or France do so? Given Russia desperately wants to weaken and divide NATO by breaking Article 5, a weak, partial guarantee like that may incentivise Russia to actually manufacture an incident at Zaporehzia, especially one that is surrounded by enough uncertainty and ready-to-go propaganda that it spreads a narrative that Ukraine may have attacked the plant, thus giving excuses to countries that don't want to invoke Article 5 over it to not act. The West should avoid setting red lines if it isn't collectively willing to back them up. Don't give Russia a way to 'call Article 5's bluff' (like they want to) on the cheap.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:34 |
|
I don't see how you could pass a national law to make it trigger Art 5. You'd need to amend the NATO treaty. Just give Poopin an ultimatum to GTFO, like with Saddam.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:37 |
|
Tigey posted:Certain parties in the US may be willing to make these symbolic political gestures that they consider an incident like that to be a red line that is Article 5 worthy, but would all of NATO? Would Germany, or France do so? Uh.. Maybe, just maybe, they would care even more since a nuke or a busted nuclear power plant could irradiate Germany, France, potentially all of Europe too if the winds are right? If they do nothing, they could also very well be next.. i.. i do not understand your way of thinking here honestly.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:38 |
|
Gejnor posted:Uh.. Maybe, just maybe, they would care even more since a nuke or a busted nuclear power plant would irradiate Germany, France, potentially all of Europe too if the winds are right? Yes, that's the idea behind it but it's far from a given that a country like Germany would actually be willing to enter a full-scale confrontation over an environmental disaster like that. A move like this should only be made as long as there's extreme confidence that they are willing to do that. Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 14:42 on Jun 23, 2023 |
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:39 |
|
Tiny Timbs posted:Yes, that's the idea behind it but it's far from a given that a country like Germany would actually be willing to enter a full-scale confrontation over an environmental disaster like that. I just think its more likelier that a country or set of countries in the immediate area would have an easier chance of responding to this than a nation that is , essentially, outside of the zone of consequences. Also i have to say, breaking a dam is an environmental disaster. Setting of a nuke is not, that's a direct confrontation and escalation never seen in modern history, same with the deliberate destruction of a nuclear power plant in war. Gejnor fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Jun 23, 2023 |
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:40 |
|
Gejnor posted:I just think its more likelier that a country or set of countries in the immediate area would have an easier chance of responding to this than a nation that is , essentially, outside of the zone of consequences. The point is that they're the ones at the front line and thus would bear the most responsibility and risk of enacting Article 5. The stakes are higher for them and they won't necessarily follow unilateral decision-making by the US.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:43 |
|
mobby_6kl posted:I don't see how you could pass a national law to make it trigger Art 5. You'd need to amend the NATO treaty. Article 5 can be invoked by any member and requires a response from all parties to the treaty. This would just make it official that “yes, the US would invoke Article 5 if you do this.” In reality Poland would have a better case, as the radioactive material would be decorating their front lawn.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:44 |
|
Gejnor posted:Uh.. Maybe, just maybe, they would care even more since a nuke or a busted nuclear power plant could irradiate Germany, France, potentially all of Europe too if the winds are right? Where did I say they wouldn't care? Of course they would be extremely concerned, and worried about the (literal) fallout. But would they care enough to consider it a direct attack, requiring a military response? That could lead to a nuclear exchange? Some countries might, but would enough? Countries like Germany might be willing to take some action, like ramping up more sanctions, condemnations, weapon shipments. But would Germany be 100% willing to go to war with Russia over an incident in a non-NATO where the circumstances were murky and unclear? Where there are a lot of narratives flying about that it was an accident, that Ukraine did it, etc? This is why you don't create red lines you aren't sure you are willing or able to back up.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:44 |
|
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1672224405273952260 Why the long face Solo? I thought you've smashed 400+ tanks in the last couple of weeks and Rybar keeps reporting that Russia is holding the line and capturing settlements. If you're so worried about death how about you loving leave you hypocritical rich gently caress.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:47 |
|
Solovyov is such an insincere opportunist that I genuinely believe if the West offered him amnesty and a comfy role producing anti-Russian propaganda on a major Western news network, he'd take it in a heartbeat.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:54 |
|
Tigey posted:Where did I say they wouldn't care? Of course they would be extremely concerned, and worried about the (literal) fallout. Well, the implication was there in my mind at the very least, that the US would bear the brunt of enacting Article 5 in this case. Which i feel is wrong, in the case of a nuclear escalation, i believe the nations nearer to it will be the ones who will HAVE to act. This resolution would just clarify things. At the same time, i have to say, making a red line for something that before this conflict was considered unthinkable, a nuclear escalation in Europe post the cold war, is not exactly a weak or bad one? Nobody knows what will happen if and when that occurs. But it will be beyond the normalcy of any conflict in the last 35+ years. You seem to think the response will be wishwashy and/or weak. I.. do not think it will.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:54 |
|
Tigey posted:Solovyov is such an insincere opportunist that I genuinely believe if the West offered him amnesty and a comfy role producing anti-Russian propaganda on a major Western news network, he'd take it in a heartbeat. lol tankies would hate him more than Brown Moses chuds would hate him more than a brown Moses
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:55 |
|
Tucker goes to Russia, Solovyev goes to the West, nothing is lost, nothing is gained.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:57 |
|
Alan Smithee posted:wonder if we can get bobo to vote for it if crossshitfit won't It's a Senate resolution, totally non-binding. What it is is a very strong show of support for Ukraine. And bobo and MTG aren't Senators (thank all that is holy) so they have nothing to do with this.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 14:59 |
|
CommissarMega posted:Tucker goes to Russia, Solovyev goes to the West, nothing is lost, nothing is gained. i would take turncoat solo and tucker forced to eat vkusno i tochka for life that poo poo would be funny
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:03 |
|
Tiny Timbs posted:The point is that they're the ones at the front line and thus would bear the most responsibility and risk of enacting Article 5. The stakes are higher for them and they won't necessarily follow unilateral decision-making by the US. I have to say, i think this is a very American-centric way of thinking, yes Euopean nations would be worried, but a lot of them also have modern historical beef with Russia and have been waiting for a way to pay them back directly. For a lot of them, this would be the last straw.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:08 |
|
mllaneza posted:It's a Senate resolution, totally non-binding. What it is is a very strong show of support for Ukraine. Okay, i won't deny i am somewhat ignorant of American politics, it really did look more binding from my end of things.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:08 |
|
Gejnor posted:I have to say, i think this is a very American-centric way of thinking, yes Euopean nations would be worried, but a lot of them also have modern historical beef with Russia and have been waiting for a way to pay them back directly. We got a dose of the Euro-centric thinking early in 2022 when Germany was prevaricating on a response because they had utterly entangled themselves with the Russian energy industry.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:11 |
|
CommissarMega posted:Tucker goes to Russia, Solovyev goes to the West, nothing is lost, nothing is gained. In Physics, we call this the convservation of chuds
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:18 |
|
Tiny Timbs posted:We got a dose of the Euro-centric thinking early in 2022 when Germany was prevaricating on a response because they had utterly entangled themselves with the Russian energy industry. Sure, as had a lot of Europe itself, a 30+ year period of Peace was tumbling down, a lot of people weren't sure WHAT to do.. And all the while Eastern Europe was crowing, pointing fingers screaming "See, we told you so!" Now its been 16 months of War in Europe, the biggest since World War 2, with steadily increasing support for Ukraine that is not truly wavering and Eastern Europe has been on the forefront of provacative responses towards Russia and its allies. A nuclear detonation would most likely make Poland just outright declare war before the Germans have had time to stop blinking in confusion of what just happened. And if not them, one of the baltic nations, or one of the balkan Nato nations.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:19 |
|
Discouraging news for Ukraine - Putinist "Western officials" are downplaying Ukrainian successes in the counter-offensive https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html CNN Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive ‘not meeting expectations,’ Western officials tell CNN By Jim Sciutto, Chief National Security Correspondent Updated 1:55 AM EDT, Fri June 23, 2023 In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN. The counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front,” one of the officials said. According to the Western assessments, Russian lines of defense have been proving well-fortified, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to breach them. In addition, Russian forces have had success bogging down Ukrainian armor with missile attacks and mines and have been deploying air power more effectively. Ukrainian forces are proving “vulnerable” to minefields and Russian forces “competent” in their defense, one of the Western officials said. The officials cautioned that the counteroffensive is still in its early stages – and that the US and its allies “remain optimistic” Ukrainian forces will be able to make territorial gains over time. The US and its allies are likely to wait until at least July for a fuller assessment of the progress of the counteroffensive which was gradually launched over the last few weeks and is seen as crucial to determining who ultimately wins the war which was launched when Russia invaded last year.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:29 |
|
Article 5 by the US in this situation would still require a vote from the other members to resolve the claim, wouldn't it? Regardless of who has the best case to call Article 5, joint actions still need joint resolutions. If France, Germany, Poland, and Turkiye(!!) came out and said, "yeah, what Uncle Sam said" then we could take this unilateral blustering as more credible than Pootin's blustering. And for substantive and credible action that's not bluster, you need only look at the latest military aid package. It's doing more than some feelgood bipartisan agreement.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:37 |
|
Anders posted:I think the point is that it's a sizable pro-putin russian dispora... I have a Ukrainian friend who's lived in Finland for most of his life now. His dad was some kind of mafia type person and died well before the war or occupation of Crimwa. He came here with her grandma and her mother. They own property in Ukraine. Not rich, but still doing better than most. He oftentimes tells me how her grandmother is kinda alone here, hasn't settled in. All she watches is the Russian state tv. She's all for the invasion, hates her own country and believes whatever the Russian state tv says. What weirded me out was how he himself would oftentimes refer to Putin as a great example of a strong leader. The tone has changed now, and he's more for Prigozhin nowadays. He doesn't buy the state tv propaganda but hates his own country for being "a corrupt piece of poo poo". It's sometimes baffling to hear. Reminds me, I should ask him how he would feel if the counter offensive proved successful. But all in all there's a really strange divide there. The guy isn't exactly "for" Russia but just hates his own country and sees no future in it. He's smart, well read etc all without education but denies any hope of Ukraine being a stable western country.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:41 |
|
Vengarr posted:Article 5 can be invoked by any member and requires a response from all parties to the treaty. This would just make it official that “yes, the US would invoke Article 5 if you do this.” quote:Article 5 I don't see how you could just pass a resolution to make an attack on a Ukrainian NPP fall under this, even if you can (maybe?) technically invoke the article if you just feel like it. Everyone else has to agree with it. So seems pretty dumb, which is not surprising if it's coming from the Lindsey Graham. Article 4 would make more senes. quote:Article 4 Horrorosaurus posted:I have a Ukrainian friend who's lived in Finland for most of his life now. His dad was some kind of mafia type person and died well before the war or occupation of Crimwa. He came here with her grandma and her mother.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 15:52 |
|
Girkin's response to Prigozhin, says oligarchs don't want war, calls him traitor + some antisemitism https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672239980347785216 Edit: fizzy posted:Discouraging news for Ukraine - Putinist "Western officials" are downplaying Ukrainian successes in the counter-offensive Dwesa fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Jun 23, 2023 |
# ? Jun 23, 2023 16:11 |
|
BrassRoots posted:Wagner leadership ... hammer I see what you did here
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 17:28 |
|
It was I who made the Article 5 proposal!
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 17:30 |
|
Dwesa posted:Girkin's response to Prigozhin, says oligarchs don't want war, calls him traitor + some antisemitism Well, it's pretty obvious. Oligarchs mostly only care about making money, they don't give much of a poo poo beyond that, and much less about some nebulous patriotism. War tends to be bad for business after all. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672265883111026691 Hard for aviation to work when it keeps getting shot down or falls out of the sky, but continue suffering.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 17:38 |
|
Tai posted:https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1672224405273952260
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 18:10 |
|
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 18:45 |
|
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 18:47 |
|
has anyone made a soyjak solovyov yet?
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 18:54 |
|
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1672254981779386368 "We are humanists"
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 19:11 |
|
its worth that the first notions of courts were not originally to enforce impersonal laws, they were in order to put a limit to vendetta. Hammurabi's principle of "an eye for an eye" was intended as a maximum upper limit to vendetta for example. same deal w the ancient hebrews
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 19:20 |
|
I was digging around Twitter (probably a mistake) and I saw some reports of Ukraine managing to shoot down at least 2 KA-52s. Is that legit? The last thing I read was that those helicopters were one of many things causing trouble for the Ukrainians on the offensive and that Ukraine was having a hard time responding to the aerial threat the helicopters presented.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 19:21 |
|
mobby_6kl posted:I don't see how you could just pass a resolution to make an attack on a Ukrainian NPP fall under this, even if you can (maybe?) technically invoke the article if you just feel like it. Everyone else has to agree with it. So seems pretty dumb, which is not surprising if it's coming from the Lindsey Graham. Article 4 would make more senes. Everyone else has to agree with Article 4 for it to have any real consequences to the belligerent too. I think the US signalling "we regard that action as justifying a military response under Article 5" is useful since US territory isn't really affected. It doesn't guarantee that every other signatory will too, but it's one more (and very consequential) guaranteed aye than you had previously.
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 19:22 |
|
|
# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:58 |
|
https://twitter.com/Miyhnea/status/1672311611841716226
|
# ? Jun 23, 2023 19:36 |