(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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I think Putin’s mistake was not having enough armies. One army is a coup, two is a civil war but three? That’s how you win a war
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Jun 24, 2023 00:00
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Most important thing is that US intelligence believes Wagner hasn't moved yet but is working on preparation to start their march.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:01
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fatherboxx posted:I am on my second bottle of wine but please behave and check your sources when you post tweets Yuck, personally I can't stand the stuff. Tweets, I mean.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:02
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MegaZeroX posted:0% chance. Prigozhin has been formally charged, its been reported on state media, Russians in a variety of sectors are loving terrified, in many places special forces have been called up. Interesting development. That and Lukashenko flying to Moscow make it appear the Kremlin expects something to happen. Guess I will grab a drink and settle in.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:02
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mutata posted:Hi, everyone, I'm here for the Potential Coup Viewing? Is it assigned seats or do we just sit anywhere? It's a coup! You TAKE the seat you want, consequences be damned! Was the bulk of Wagner's forces still stationed at Bakhmut or were they spread out after the winter offensive? There could be a massive unmanned hole in the Russian lines for the next few days.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:02
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MegaZeroX posted:Most important thing is that US intelligence believes Wagner hasn't moved yet but is working on preparation to start their march. So apparently the guy is reporting this is from "The Messenger". Are they credible?
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Jun 24, 2023 00:03
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Russia gonna nuke Russia.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:05
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Donkringel posted:It's a coup! You TAKE the seat you want, consequences be damned! I vaguely recall that they were rotated out for Russian army regulars (if that's the correct milterm). Edit- at the end of the bakhmut offensive.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:06
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Assuming that Wagner is crushed and authority is reestablished I have a hard time seeing how the Russian population wouldn't lose a lot of faith in Putin and the fact that this debacle came so close to home and is so obviously due to internal divisions riven in his regime.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:06
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Willo567 posted:So apparently the guy is reporting this is from "The Messenger". Are they credible? The person is formerly AP investigative reporter, but I think I've heard others vouch for them
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Jun 24, 2023 00:09
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What a wild time. I can't really add anything except stay safe Fatherboxx o7
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Jun 24, 2023 00:09
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Apparently Prigozhin claimed on Telegram to have entered Rostov
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Jun 24, 2023 00:10
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https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1672380778628407298
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Jun 24, 2023 00:10
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khwarezm posted:Assuming that Wagner is crushed and authority is reestablished I have a hard time seeing how the Russian population wouldn't lose a lot of faith in Putin and the fact that this debacle came so close to home and is so obviously due to internal divisions riven in his regime. Putin's party controls all of main media. They get to colour the discourse how they will, and the majority will believe it because there are no alternative takes.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:11
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khwarezm posted:Assuming that Wagner is crushed and authority is reestablished I have a hard time seeing how the Russian population wouldn't lose a lot of faith in Putin and the fact that this debacle came so close to home and is so obviously due to internal divisions riven in his regime. Dunno about population (Wagner's public profile has been mostly kept away from federal TV and existed on the Internet) but it definetely looks like the moment of uncertainty and unstability in leadership of the country when some important decisions and moves may be made.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:11
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full translation of the new statement: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672382280134799360 quote:❗️New audio statement by Prigozhin (00:03 BST), stating Wagner "crossed state borders in all areas" and is now entering Belgorod, promising to "destroy anything standing in their way":
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Jun 24, 2023 00:14
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1672380087121895425 This guy isn't very sensationalist, and his reposts of media seem pretty well vetted.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:19
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Nenonen posted:Putin's party controls all of main media. They get to colour the discourse how they will, and the majority will believe it because there are no alternative takes. Historically things can change on a dime even for hardline dictatorships. Even if I'm a regular patriotic Russian that broadly believes the narrative about NATO encirclement and Ukrainian Nazis I seriously would have a very hard time squaring this with faith in the Putin regime when one of their illegal armies just tried to launch a coup, the same army that was touted as kicking Ukrainian rear end for the last year. Like just the fact that this is happening at home in Moscow, and is clearly due to the massive internal conflicts in his regime as opposed to some comfortably foreign enemy would have me start asking a lot of questions.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:20
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https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1672385098891632640
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Jun 24, 2023 00:27
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Is Putin going to replace Wagner troops in Africa, are they just going to repatriate themselves to those African counties or what?
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Jun 24, 2023 00:30
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khwarezm posted:Historically things can change on a dime even for hardline dictatorships. Even if I'm a regular patriotic Russian that broadly believes the narrative about NATO encirclement and Ukrainian Nazis I seriously would have a very hard time squaring this with faith in the Putin regime when one of their illegal armies just tried to launch a coup, the same army that was touted as kicking Ukrainian rear end for the last year. the feds are mobilizing in Moscow (and elsewhere) but afaict the rebels are in Rostov ATM which is very much not Moscow
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Jun 24, 2023 00:31
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Is Putin going to replace Wagner troops in Africa, are they just going to repatriate themselves to those African counties or what? They're mercenaries. They'll follow the money if authority goes belly up.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:32
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We don't actually know where Wagner is. US intel has them still in place in Ukraine. Prigozhin says they're in Rostov and Belgorod.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:32
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672387169648881664?t=esRWm4FyD9dSSE0mN7pfZg&s=19
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Jun 24, 2023 00:33
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Is Putin going to replace Wagner troops in Africa, are they just going to repatriate themselves to those African counties or what? how could anyone possibly know at this point in time
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Jun 24, 2023 00:34
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edit nvm
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Jun 24, 2023 00:34
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How exactly would Wagner get columns or whatever to Moscow? Do they have some kind of mobile anti air because it seems to me they would just get bombed into oblivion by Russian air on the way in? Do they already have significant forces there? I can't imagine that would be the case.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:34
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D-Pad posted:How exactly would Wagner get columns or whatever to Moscow? Do they have some kind of mobile anti air because it seems to me they would just get bombed into oblivion by Russian air on the way in? Do they already have significant forces there? I can't imagine that would be the case.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:35
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658quote:Prigozhin, audio statement at 00:31 BST, stating that Gerasimov "gave an order for planes to bomb moving Wagner columns". It is unclear if these columns exist in reality:
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Jun 24, 2023 00:36
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khwarezm posted:Historically things can change on a dime even for hardline dictatorships. Even if I'm a regular patriotic Russian that broadly believes the narrative about NATO encirclement and Ukrainian Nazis I seriously would have a very hard time squaring this with faith in the Putin regime when one of their illegal armies just tried to launch a coup, the same army that was touted as kicking Ukrainian rear end for the last year. Well I would agree with that, and... in the end most people will not care, probably. Because they have other interests and it takes effort to figure out why this fringe extremist has revolted all of a sudden. At the same time more people will come to the realisation that everything is not normal, because they get news from alternative channels.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:37
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I would really like some on the ground movement one way or the other verified, because right now this sounds, as much as it can sound like anything, like they just found the quest logs as you stand there surveying the failed experiment.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:37
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This all reminds me of when those army officers tried to coup Erdogan back in 2016 except with somehow even less backing it up. Gonna be an interesting night regardless
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Jun 24, 2023 00:39
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mutata posted:We don't actually know where Wagner is. US intel has them still in place in Ukraine. Prigozhin says they're in Rostov and Belgorod. Wagner is a big outfit. Total manpower is somewhere north of 20,000 at this point, so talking about a unitary "wagner" that you could follow around on a map is silly; it's widely distributed and even the part that is in Ukraine en masse is multiple brigade sized elements. D-Pad posted:How exactly would Wagner get columns or whatever to Moscow? Do they have some kind of mobile anti air because it seems to me they would just get bombed into oblivion by Russian air on the way in? Do they already have significant forces there? I can't imagine that would be the case. Assuming it's not all Prigozhin fanfic the idea would be to pull a Blackshirt march on Rome / Hundred Days kinda thing and have the Russian military recognize that you are on their side and therefore decide not to obey their orders. In fact, he's already claimed this has happened in Rostov. Usually when you launch a (successful) coup its with some pretty careful planning and you have other coup-participating units in various key positions. It remains to be seen how amateurish this whole thing is, but clearly the current Russian government is worried.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:39
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DOOMocrat posted:I would really like some on the ground movement one way or the other verified, because right now this sounds, as much as it can sound like anything, like they just found the quest logs as you stand there surveying the failed experiment. Yeah I feel like if there were any sort of big Wagner column or Wagner troops in Rostov we would have at least seen some sort of pictures of it by now like the pictures of troops in Moscow, even lovely blurry ones.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:40
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D-Pad posted:How exactly would Wagner get columns or whatever to Moscow? Do they have some kind of mobile anti air because it seems to me they would just get bombed into oblivion by Russian air on the way in? Do they already have significant forces there? I can't imagine that would be the case. If there's any real plan to even try this, Prigozhin would have to have some substantial trust in regular Russian units that will join him along the way. Otherwise, even with the gutting of Russia's army by the war, that's way too much land and troops for Wagner to wade through. Or he knows that Russia's army is even more gutted than we all think. My bets are on the former if he's going for Moscow at all.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:40
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D-Pad posted:How exactly would Wagner get columns or whatever to Moscow? Do they have some kind of mobile anti air because it seems to me they would just get bombed into oblivion by Russian air on the way in? Do they already have significant forces there? I can't imagine that would be the case. They're obviously counting on mass defections from the Russian Army to make this work. We'll see what happens.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:40
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New theory: this is a War of the Worlds style audio drama.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:40
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D-Pad posted:How exactly would Wagner get columns or whatever to Moscow? Do they have some kind of mobile anti air because it seems to me they would just get bombed into oblivion by Russian air on the way in? Do they already have significant forces there? I can't imagine that would be the case. Wagner is framing it as a protest for justice march, not an invasion/coup/whatever. They're betting that the "common man" soldier will refuse to kill a (so far) peaceful protest march. They're betting that the average soldier hates Shoigu too. It's all very weird and seems to rely on a lot of goodwill from essentially random strangers. There's also no direct evidence of any large columns marching yet.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:41
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Deteriorata posted:They're obviously counting on mass defections from the Russian Army to make this work. We'll see what happens. Honestly? If Wagner's got even a quarter of the 50k troops they had before the war (plus armor and heavy weapons akin to what they were using at the front) there might not be much of significance between them and Moscow. Everything is in Ukraine and this is a period of very heavy fighting where they can't exactly just pack up and redirect a bunch of troops, especially if this isn't a kneejerk move and they took measures to delay that response. The Russian government is likely to be legitimately worried about this.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:50
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 14:21 |
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I know it sounds unlikely, but to me it seems a Russian leader has gotten puffed up on his own ego and maybe bitten off more than they can chew, but this time its from Ukraine into Russia instead of the other way around.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:51
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