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I've been trying to understand this, so please be gentle. If I'm wrong, explain it like I'm five and have brain damage. ADHD can be a real bitch sometimes: My understanding is Wagner is mercenary group or private army who got betrayed by Russia and now they have also declared war on Russia? So now it's basically Russia vs Wagner/Ukraine, with the latter not allied but fighting a common enemy?
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Jun 24, 2023 00:51
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This is Putin testing the loyalty of Shoigu and the MOD. Wagner likely isnt moving at all and Progie is just being paid by Putin just broadcasting to see which military units and people take the bait.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:51
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StumblyWumbly posted:I know it sounds unlikely, but to me it seems a Russian leader has gotten puffed up on his own ego and maybe bitten off more than they can chew, but this time its from Ukraine into Russia instead of the other way around. Some people suspect that Prigozhin got wind that he was being targeted for elimination, so this move is basically a survival thing, if he survives.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:53
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:I've been trying to understand this, so please be gentle. If I'm wrong, explain it like I'm five and have brain damage. ADHD can be a real bitch sometimes: Prigozhin (head of Wagner PMC) has been increasing hostile towards the MoD, which culminated today when he accused them of attacking his troops, and said he will march and get the MoD heads replaced. Russia proceeded to follow by charging him with planning a coup, and increased security in Moscow and Rostov, locking down the highway between the two. Prigozhin claims he is in Rostov now, but there is no evidence so people are beginning to doubt that.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:54
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:I've been trying to understand this, so please be gentle. If I'm wrong, explain it like I'm five and have brain damage. ADHD can be a real bitch sometimes: Wagner is a Russian merc group that operates for the Russian government in the Ukraine, among other places, and basically got used as cannon fodder. There seems to be some sort of internal power struggle between Wagner's leader Prigozhin and the Russian Armed Forces going on for some time now. For whatever reason things seem to have come to a head and it appears increasingly likely Prigozhin has crossed the proverbial Rubicon. His ultimate goal is unclear. Wagner is not switching sides. This is an internal conflict within the Russian military aparatus.
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Jun 24, 2023 00:55
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:I've been trying to understand this, so please be gentle. If I'm wrong, explain it like I'm five and have brain damage. ADHD can be a real bitch sometimes: Wagner is a deniable ops wing of the Russian military. Before the war it pulled members directly and exclusively from the Russian army, only took contracts in support of Russian interests overseas, were based and trained on active Russian military bases, and exist in Russia as a "PMC" despite the fact it's been outright illegal to run a PMC in Russia. Similarly they were thrown wholesale into Ukraine along with the rest of the Russian armed forces - just under a parallel command structure. They exist so Russia has a standing pool of organized troops identifying as "Not Russian troops" to be used for things where it's politically convenient to not to have the Russian army doing them. Like helping with genocides or getting casually wrecked by the US while attempting to grab some US troops overseas. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 00:57
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Hamelekim posted:Some people suspect that Prigozhin got wind that he was being targeted for elimination, so this move is basically a survival thing, if he survives. This makes the most sense, but didn't fit into my joke. MikeC posted:Wagner is not switching sides. This is an internal conflict within the Russian military aparatus. I don't know if its really happening, but if Wagner troops are marching, things will not stay "internal" when shots are fired
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Jun 24, 2023 01:00
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Assuming it's not all Prigozhin fanfic the idea would be to pull a Blackshirt march on Rome / Hundred Days kinda thing and have the Russian military recognize that you are on their side and therefore decide not to obey their orders. In fact, he's already claimed this has happened in Rostov. Usually when you launch a (successful) coup its with some pretty careful planning and you have other coup-participating units in various key positions. It remains to be seen how amateurish this whole thing is, but clearly the current Russian government is worried. Naples to Rome is a tad shorter than Ukraine to Moscow. Also: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672388055590731777
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Jun 24, 2023 01:02
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Maybe the MOD already got him, and they're using fake messages from him to justify it.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:03
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Zhanism posted:This is Putin testing the loyalty of Shoigu and the MOD. Wagner likely isnt moving at all and Progie is just being paid by Putin just broadcasting to see which military units and people take the bait.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:07
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Zhanism posted:Maybe the MOD already got him, and they're using fake messages from him to justify it. I doubt it since we have audio statements from him.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:08
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tbh if the outcome of this is "wagner troops get cold feet and one of them unceremoniously shoots prigozhin for the bounty" that's an acceptable outcome, he's a shithead i can't imagine this was his most survivable option, surely it'd be better to grab some of the wagner treasury and run to some country nobody cares about
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Jun 24, 2023 01:15
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It sounds like the MoD or other internal forces are finally moving to crack down on Prigozhan and he kicked off this entire thing as a last-ditch effort to hold onto his power and maybe his life. He's really piling up the claims and provocations (Wagner being attacked, Wagner marching in Russian cities, unsourced Russian orders, etc.) but they look more and more like threadbare bluster since he cannot produce a scrap of evidence. Russia is taking his threats very seriously but it isn't clear if his forces are actually doing anything or if he is just maneuvering for allies/protection/smokescreens (i.e., rhetorical flailing). My guess is this is what desperation looks like and we won't see a single shot fired other than maybe in a bunker somewhere. I think Prigozhan's days as the head of Wagner are numbered. This would mean a consolidation of power in the true MoD, but it may alienate the Russian hardliners/warbloggers/fascists who are of the belief that Wagner "gets things done" while the rest of the state is mired in "degenerate corruption."
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Jun 24, 2023 01:15
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Vox Nihili posted:It sounds like the MoD or other internal forces are finally moving to crack down on Prigozhan and he kicked off this entire thing as a last-ditch effort to hold onto his power and maybe his life. He's really piling up the claims and provocations (Wagner being attacked, Wagner marching in Russian cities, unsourced Russian orders, etc.) but they look more and more like threadbare bluster since he cannot produce a scrap of evidence. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a few diehards on his side as well, but otherwise I 100% agree with this. Also via Meduza: quote:The video footage posted by Prigozhin earlier on June 23 that reportedly shows the aftermath of a Russian rocket strike on a Wagner rear camp is almost certainly staged. Here’s why:
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Jun 24, 2023 01:22
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loving wild if the one thing that isn't faked in a video is the human remains
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Jun 24, 2023 01:23
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:I've been trying to understand this, so please be gentle. If I'm wrong, explain it like I'm five and have brain damage. ADHD can be a real bitch sometimes:
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Jun 24, 2023 01:30
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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672400727845621760 Are we sure that Prigozhin isn't just trying to gaslight everyone into thinking Wagner is doing a coup? Feels like we would have heard and seen more by now
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Jun 24, 2023 01:30
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This seems, currently, to be the optimal and targeted outcome of the US - destabilization of the Russian regime but maybe not a deathblow. Unintended consequences are pending of course.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:30
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Moon Slayer posted:"Shitposted so hard the government put tanks on the street" Thread title? Prigozhin is hosed. The smart move is probably Rostov rather than Moscow. From there Wagner can control supplies for the 58th Combined Arms Army (Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia). I think if he had any actual pull with the Rogsvardia and other security services he wouldn't be pleading with them on Telegram: he would just call them. Prigozhin is hosed.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:33
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Is there any chance he's defecting to Ukraine and stirring stuff up as part of a deal? I can't imagine he thinks he's going to get away with this poo poo if he stays in Russian-controlled territory.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:35
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Is there any chance he's defecting to Ukraine and stirring stuff up as part of a deal? I can't imagine he thinks he's going to get away with this poo poo if he stays in Russian-controlled territory. No. He just talked too much and hosed up and his only next way to implement momentum is towards Moscow. He has no real positive outcome. Unless Putin somehow goes "you're right" and somehow oust Shoigu. Ukraine does not want him nor is he at all on Ukraine's side. It's literally a temper tantrum/cry for help that has gotten out of hand and he has limited recourse. He still views moves towards Russia as that some outburst. E: I'm not knowledgeable on such things but just what I've gleaned. E2: VVV you know what I mean. RoyKeen fucked around with this message at 01:47 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 01:43
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RoyKeen posted:Ukraine does not want him nor is he at all on Ukraine's side. I think Ukraine very much wants him 
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Jun 24, 2023 01:47
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EasilyConfused posted:Naples to Rome is a tad shorter than Ukraine to Moscow. I don't think that's the primary flaw in the plan.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:50
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Wagner was useful to Putin but I don't think he cared too much about them in the end. This is a Fatal Attraction scenario. Prighozin is not going to be ignored.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:52
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Meanwhile in the real world, another Russian cruise missile strikes on Ukraine and S-300 terror bombing of Kharkiv.
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Jun 24, 2023 01:56
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Is there any chance he's defecting to Ukraine and stirring stuff up as part of a deal? I can't imagine he thinks he's going to get away with this poo poo if he stays in Russian-controlled territory. If he defects, that will be his last option before swimming out of a 10th floor window, and its going to be US Intelligence or something similar in the West because he is a star-hot intelligence asset into the Putin's inner circle and dealings. And they know how to "disappear" a person permanently without killing them after a deal is made.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:00
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It's good to keep in mind that, monstrous as they are, Wagner and Prighozin are pretty popular in Russia. They are essentially considered war heroes for actually pulling off a "victory" in Bakhmut amidst a string of increasingly embarrassing losses. It's not going to be great for the already shaky morale within the army if they are ordered to gun down their own heroes.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:01
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Der Kyhe posted:If he defects, that will be his last option before swimming out of a 10th floor window, and its going to be US Intelligence or something similar in the West because he is a star-hot intelligence asset into the Putin's inner circle and dealings. And they know how to "disappear" a person permanently without killing them after a deal is made. He is not defecting.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:02
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Vox Nihili posted:It sounds like the MoD or other internal forces are finally moving to crack down on Prigozhan and he kicked off this entire thing as a last-ditch effort to hold onto his power and maybe his life. He's really piling up the claims and provocations (Wagner being attacked, Wagner marching in Russian cities, unsourced Russian orders, etc.) but they look more and more like threadbare bluster since he cannot produce a scrap of evidence. It seems like integrating Wagner into the general military would cause a lot of issues in Africa since using Wagner is an important distancing step for a lot of their efforts to prop up their friendly regimes. That stuff looks a lot different when its just straight up Russian military troops, but Putin is probably well past the point of caring about plausible deniability
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Jun 24, 2023 02:02
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RoyKeen posted:He is not defecting. Well obviously he isn't going to defect, most likely he wants to become a martyr for his own glory. But if he for any reason would, it would be to something like US government that has actual resources to disappear people, and nothing less.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:05
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Then it's just reformed as the Beethoven PMC or whatever.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:07
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There is some unconfirmed video out there of Wagner and Russia fighting on the M4. Supposedly Wagner took out a Russian Helicopter too. Grain of salt with all of it.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:09
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1672409807066726400 Wagner is claiming (lol) to have shot down a helicopter that engaged them on the highway. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1672411190201397248 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672409506901368833
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Jun 24, 2023 02:10
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Popete posted:Then it's just reformed as the Beethoven PMC or whatever. The choice of classical musician wasn't chosen lightly or at random. It wasn't "I dunno...'Wagner' or whatever".
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Jun 24, 2023 02:12
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I just saw video of the helicopter take down. Looks pretty legit.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:13
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I wouldn't completely discount all these announcements being pre-recorded messages from Prigozhin designed to sow confusion while he and some of the Wagner top brass get smuggled to Africa, though. Or, well, I wouldn't have until the above tweets reporting gunfire. That's an indication that maybe this is really happening.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:13
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RoyKeen posted:The choice of classical musician wasn't chosen lightly or at random. It wasn't "I dunno...'Wagner' or whatever". Prigozhin was a huge fan of the helicopter scene from Apocalypse Now.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:15
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ummel posted:Prigozhin was a huge fan of the helicopter scene from Apocalypse Now. The writers of this reality are hacks.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:16
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RoyKeen posted:The choice of classical musician wasn't chosen lightly or at random. It wasn't "I dunno...'Wagner' or whatever". Yeah, when they rename it, they'll probably go for Tchaikovsky, as a gay, part-Ukrainian composer one of whose homes got destroyed by this war. Edit: Bremen posted:I wouldn't completely discount all these announcements being pre-recorded messages from Prigozhin designed to sow confusion while he and some of the Wagner top brass get smuggled to Africa, though. Or, well, I wouldn't have until the above tweets reporting gunfire. That's an indication that maybe this is really happening. Well,.this would be a really good distraction, won't it?
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Jun 24, 2023 02:17
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Insane comedy option - the UAF reached the border and captured Prigozhin at gunpoint and are now using him as plausible deniability to do a false flag invasion of Russia. It makes about as much sense as any of the other poo poo that happened so far.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:17
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