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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Djarum posted:

I just saw video of the helicopter take down. Looks pretty legit.

Can you share it?

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BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


BigBallChunkyTime posted:

I've been trying to understand this, so please be gentle. If I'm wrong, explain it like I'm five and have brain damage. ADHD can be a real bitch sometimes:

My understanding is Wagner is mercenary group or private army who got betrayed by Russia and now they have also declared war on Russia?

So now it's basically Russia vs Wagner/Ukraine, with the latter not allied but fighting a common enemy?

It’s basically what happened in Sudan except there’s no actual evidence of civil war. Turns out basically having two separate armies makes things politically unstable!

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

KillHour posted:

Can you share it?

:nms: https://reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hfb4d/allegedly_helicopter_shot_down_over_rostov/:nms:

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Edit: wrong thread

RockWhisperer
Oct 26, 2018
Where is Kadyrov in all this? I imagine he might have the most to gain in all of this.

Edit: I keep looking and see no mention in any feeds. I'm genuinely curious.

RockWhisperer fucked around with this message at 02:34 on Jun 24, 2023

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

This is a military checkpoint they are driving through lol.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672414619275517952

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Tag yourself, I'm the commercial trucker who accidentally merged into a coup attempt.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

acidx posted:

This is a military checkpoint they are driving through lol.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672414619275517952

So, either Wagner took the checkpoint or the Rosgvardia isn't stopping them. Neither bode well for the Russian establishment.

RockWhisperer posted:

Where is Kadyrov in all this? I imagine he might have the most to gain in all of this.

I'd imagine staying home and making sure Chechnya is still secure. Because if Russia is about to go through some stuff, his own position might be tenable.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Moon Slayer posted:

Tag yourself, I'm the commercial trucker who accidentally merged into a coup attempt.

I'm the soldiers just standing around ignoring it and hoping it goes away

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

acidx posted:

This is a military checkpoint they are driving through lol.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672414619275517952

Why do people think this is Wagner rather than regular Russian military/security forces, even assuming it's from the right location, date, and time (not saying it's not, just wondering what the proof is)?

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Jun 24, 2023

sweet geek swag
Mar 29, 2006

Adjust lasers to FUN!





Young Freud posted:

So, either Wagner took the checkpoint or the Rosgvardia isn't stopping them. Neither bode well for the Russian establishment.

I'd imagine staying home and making sure Chechnya is still secure. Because if Russia is about to go through some stuff, his own position might be tenable.

That's assuming a lot of things. The troops could have been ordered to concentrate at wherever the main line of defense is going to be when Prigozhin made his declaration of war. The internal checkpoints might be undermanned so that they can keep larger forces at key locations. All it means is that MoD forces for whatever reason are not making holding these locations they probably can't hold a priority.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

ElrondHubbard posted:

It's good to keep in mind that, monstrous as they are, Wagner and Prighozin are pretty popular in Russia. They are essentially considered war heroes for actually pulling off a "victory" in Bakhmut amidst a string of increasingly embarrassing losses. It's not going to be great for the already shaky morale within the army if they are ordered to gun down their own heroes.

His popularity might be a tad overblown. Don't forget he's the guy with a literal personal internet troll army.

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

Sir John Falstaff posted:

Why do people think this is Wagner rather than regular Russian military/security forces, even assuming it's from the right location, date, and time?

No Z poo poo on the vehicles for one.

KingColliwog
May 15, 2003

Let's go droogs
I had to stop following for a week because of life and lol, what the heck is going on. Please let this be true.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

Bremen posted:

I wouldn't completely discount all these announcements being pre-recorded messages from Prigozhin designed to sow confusion while he and some of the Wagner top brass get smuggled to Africa, though. Or, well, I wouldn't have until the above tweets reporting gunfire. That's an indication that maybe this is really happening.

I mean if we’re gonna go tinfoil hat who’s to say the recorded messages are even real? I think AI voice generation technology these days can make an almost if not perfectly indistinguishable recording in the likeness of anyone else.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

acidx posted:

No Z poo poo on the vehicles for one.

Does Wagner not use the Z symbol? I thought they did.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Zhanism posted:

This is Putin testing the loyalty of Shoigu and the MOD. Wagner likely isnt moving at all and Progie is just being paid by Putin just broadcasting to see which military units and people take the bait.

Seems unlikely. What are you going to do?

"Aha! You see, we've fooled you into mobilizing and rising up in rebellion, the punishment for which is death!"
"Well...I'm already hosed and already mobilized so I guess I might as well commit to the rebellion and maybe get lucky!"

There's other ways of checking for loyalty that don't involve triggering an actual military revolt with all the damaging consequences thereof.

RockWhisperer
Oct 26, 2018

Young Freud posted:

I'd imagine staying home and making sure Chechnya is still secure. Because if Russia is about to go through some stuff, his own position might be tenable.

That's possible, but I would have thought he'd of stepped into the fray knowing he'd go down with Putin if the coup succeeds. He's politically savvy, so it intrigues me.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
What I am reading that a large amount of the Russian military is on the side of Wagner. The average conscript is not thrilled with the current MoD and military leadership. Wagner has a better standing than the Russian leadership through most of the ranks.

Russia has been a tinderbox waiting to ignite for awhile. If this is the start of a civil war things are bound to get very ugly.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

acidx posted:

No Z poo poo on the vehicles for one.

I believe Russia recently changed their vehicle markings, so I wouldn't call that definitive.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands
If only cinci were here to see this and complain about the Overton window for Clancychat getting shifted again and again. This is nuts. Also probably very very stupid on Prigozhin's part unless he knows something we don't.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


I stopped believing in Putin chess master after his daily feedings of paratroopers to hostomel airport at the start of the war. Not sure why people are holding onto it now when it’s pretty loving clear that even if this fails (still the most likely outcome by far) he has lost control over a lot of poo poo he’s supposed to have a tight grip on

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

Ynglaur posted:

I believe Russia recently changed their vehicle markings, so I wouldn't call that definitive.

I'm sure the people who spend their days counting every single lost Russian vehicle can spot more subtle differences than that.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

KingColliwog posted:

I had to stop following for a week because of life and lol, what the heck is going on. Please let this be true.

If it's true, a fascist war baron getting in/more is unlikely to be good for Russia or it's neighbours in the long run.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

Djarum posted:

What I am reading that a large amount of the Russian military is on the side of Wagner. The average conscript is not thrilled with the current MoD and military leadership. Wagner has a better standing than the Russian leadership through most of the ranks.

Russia has been a tinderbox waiting to ignite for awhile. If this is the start of a civil war things are bound to get very ugly.

What are you basing this on?

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

acidx posted:

This is a military checkpoint they are driving through lol.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672414619275517952

Was wondering why the sky looked so bright for a coup that is supposedly happening past 2am or so. Apparently what the gently caress the sun rises there at 3:45am and it’s now 4:49am. Jesus having the sun rise so early sounds horrible.

the other hand
Dec 14, 2003


43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade
"Ultima Ratio Liberalium"

Paladinus posted:

His popularity might be a tad overblown. Don't forget he's the guy with a literal personal internet troll army.

He’s also the only person in the (sort of) Russian military apparatus who’s been telling the truth about the war lately. “I’m the only one here who’s not constantly lying to you” can be pretty powerful mojo.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

EasilyConfused posted:

What are you basing this on?

All of the reporting I am reading now and in the past. Wagner is looked at those “that know what they are doing” if that is true or not.

Tomn posted:

If only cinci were here to see this and complain about the Overton window for Clancychat getting shifted again and again. This is nuts. Also probably very very stupid on Prigozhin's part unless he knows something we don't.

I am positive Prigozhin knows a lot that we don’t. He is likely well aware of Russian force concentrations, defenses and strategy. Hell that is if he doesn’t have moles and spies within their lines which I have little doubt he has plenty of both.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Me reactivating my Twitter account is just one more crime to put on Putin's head.

Anyway, take these videos with a large grain of salt but it was retweeted by Def Mon.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672421029715607552

e; also shared by Thomas Van Linge

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Jun 24, 2023

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

acidx posted:

I'm sure the people who spend their days counting every single lost Russian vehicle can spot more subtle differences than that.

Oh for sure! I'm continually impressed by people who can identify subclasses of T-72s. I just see a T-72 and go, " Yep. That's a T-72."

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Hi it’s me Vladimir Putin I’m just offscreen being briefed on this crisis

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Moon Slayer posted:

Me reactivating my Twitter account is just one more crime to put on Putin's head.

Anyway, take these videos with a large grain of salt but it was retweeted by Def Mon.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672421029715607552

e; also shared by Thomas Van Linge

Is the blury thing in the first one a T-62?

Ynglaur posted:

Oh for sure! I'm continually impressed by people who can identify subclasses of T-72s. I just see a T-72 and go, " Yep. That's a T-72."

The only modern one I can tell apart is the T-90M, since its turret shape is very different (edit: and I might be wrong on that). Meanwhile some dudes or dudettes are like "this is a special tank biathlon T-80 variants!"

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 03:06 on Jun 24, 2023

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
Can a tank even make the whole trip to Moscow from Rostov, etc. without refueling? Seems like a long distance to travel.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

ummel posted:

Can a tank even make the whole trip to Moscow from Rostov, etc. without refueling? Seems like a long distance to travel.

There's plenty of fuel in Rostov-On-Don and along the way.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1672425858156437504

Also:
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1672406474876760065

RockWhisperer
Oct 26, 2018

ummel posted:

Can a tank even make the whole trip to Moscow from Rostov, etc. without refueling? Seems like a long distance to travel.

Been wondering about this and the convoy a lot. Those tanks need a ton of maintenance too (love to hear from Ynglaur about this). Maybe they're having people give them gas or stealing gas along the way?

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672426443735805952
(Edit for 2nd tweet)

I'd like to tag myself as the civilian taking a video directly behind the tanks pointing their barrels at the southern military district headquarters. (Edit- I don't know what that building is, for the record)

ummel fucked around with this message at 03:14 on Jun 24, 2023

the other hand
Dec 14, 2003


43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade
"Ultima Ratio Liberalium"

RockWhisperer posted:

Been wondering about this and the convoy a lot. Those tanks need a ton of maintenance too (love to hear from Ynglaur about this). Maybe they're having people give them gas or stealing gas along the way?

They transport the tanks on big trucks for long distance travel

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



ummel posted:

Can a tank even make the whole trip to Moscow from Rostov, etc. without refueling? Seems like a long distance to travel.

I know most tanks can be run on multiple fuel sources to ease logistics. I don't know if they need to do any tweaks to the engine before switching, but one would imagine they are set to run on diesel so they can use civilian fuel sources along the way if needed.

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RockWhisperer
Oct 26, 2018

the other hand posted:

They transport the tanks on big trucks for long distance travel

Don't they need to be combat ready and off of the trailer considering they could be ambushed along the highway? I seriously don't know and am just asking.

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