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Well God willing this will all shake out into some sort of collapse of Russian forces without Ultranationalist management taking over for the already supernationalist government; I also hope Xi is looking at this and rechecking his calculus wrt Taiwan, and realizing that victory is anything but assured and defeat could be ruinous.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:46
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I wonder how many surrenders Ukraine is dealing with at the moment, because right now would be the best time to throw up a white flag, and get a better deal than whatever is to follow back home. Didn't kill Wagner as they were leaving? Jail Didn't attack Ukraine as they were leaving? Jail Wagner wins, change of management? Believe it or not, Jail. I'm kidding of course, but I can't imagine life is about to improve for many of these guys no matter what happens.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:50
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lmao
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Jun 24, 2023 03:53
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UA should be blasting that on the airwaves, telegram channels, and quad copter delivered pamphlets.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:53
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what tom clancy book covered this eventuality
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Jun 24, 2023 03:55
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what a quangomire
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Jun 24, 2023 03:58
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As someone with an extremely useful Roman history degree I can tell you that one of your generals deciding to go into business for himself and seize a major city with the army that's loyal to him and not the state never causes any long-term problems
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Jun 24, 2023 03:59
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Herstory Begins Now posted:there's footage of both omon on the streets in rostov and, according to fairly credible people, eg prominent russia-focused journalists, wagner personnel and vehicles also on the streets in rostov. very notably no sounds of gunfire in videos, which is very peculiar. also very possible that who is what is being misidentified, but also not seeing a lot of unit markings either. kind of a 2014 vibe tbh Omon's job is to beat up peaceful protestors 6-on-1 while armed in riot gear, not to fight mercs with tanks.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:59
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Grand Fromage posted:As someone with an extremely useful Roman history degree I can tell you that one of your generals deciding to go into business for himself and seize a major city with the army that's loyal to him and not the state never causes any long-term problems I agree completely
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Jun 24, 2023 04:00
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some of this footage is wild of just civilians hanging out https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1672435335060496385 https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1672438231009304576 we're now in the "yeah something is definitely happening because the social media videos are coming out, but we don't know about force size" phase
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Jun 24, 2023 04:02
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M_Gargantua posted:So regardless of how this change in military leadership turns out this is a great data point for next gen cyberwar: its a perfect blend of all the media you need to make your enemy think a coup is in progress. Building tension? Check. A few unhinged rants walking the boarder of acceptable anti-establishment speech? Check. Google maps traffic data blowing up for both steets and mass transit? Easily falsifiable. Videos of coup troops? Just flood the field with clips of questionable source with the right time of day. AI generate some specific stuff if you need. Mass telegram messages telling family and friends that its going down? Easily faked. Like you can just look at everything assaulting the channels right now and make a check list of how you could fake it with just enough real juice so that the next morning your enemies are gunning each other down because they believe the *false* narrative and now they're shooting first and asking questions second. yeah pretty much. the overnight footage was all incredibly generic, not a single instance of someone going 'holy gently caress this is rostov why are there tanks here' or some similar variation that you always seem to get in spontaneous footage of people recording extaordinary thing. every low-quality telegram channel no one had ever heard of was blasting breaking coup reports etc. then two hours later there's tanks outside the southern military district headquarters. the one big thing I'd add to this though is that rosgvardia and omon were out and about in Rostov late last night/early this morning (I'm basing this off of seeing footage of both from Rostov) and whatever the situation was there, it resolved with little/no gunfire, which is not something that would fill me with confidence if I worked in ru MoD. also lol that we discussed almost exactly this situation 3 weeks ago OddObserver posted:Omon's job is to beat up peaceful protestors 6-on-1 while armed in riot gear, not to fight mercs with tanks. no of course not, though i'll note that in this case they were deployed with like american police levels of gear, not riot stuff Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 04:14 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 04:09
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672435904613416960?s=20
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Jun 24, 2023 04:10
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facialimpediment posted:
seems like a pretty big deal that the larger Rosgvardia force let Wagner by untouched
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Jun 24, 2023 04:19
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Kesper North posted:seems like a pretty big deal that the larger Rosgvardia force let Wagner by untouched Probably a lot of ‘I’m not getting paid enough for this poo poo’ moments.
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Jun 24, 2023 04:21
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Imo it is time for Russia to drop a warning nuclear bomb on Russia to show Russia that Russia means business
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Jun 24, 2023 04:23
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Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:Probably a lot of ‘I’m not getting paid enough for this poo poo’ moments. bunch of words from an account that is pretty much a media outlet for ru air force that conveys quite a vibe  'no one is dying for prigozhin' 'absolutely no one at all is dying for shoigu'
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Jun 24, 2023 04:24
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Good article on the origins of what the gently caress is exactly going on and why: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/russia-crisis-coup-prigozhin/674516/
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Jun 24, 2023 04:29
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Somehow,
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Jun 24, 2023 04:34
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facialimpediment posted:Good article on the origins of what the gently caress is exactly going on and why: Yeah that was interesting with the different possible explanations and scenarios, thanks!
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Jun 24, 2023 04:41
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the atlantic posted:...claiming that Russia’s war in Ukraine was all the result of a giant plot by defense bureaucrats to mislead Russian President Vladimir Putin into a pointless conflict.
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Jun 24, 2023 04:43
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Grand Fromage posted:As someone with an extremely useful Roman history degree I can tell you that one of your generals deciding to go into business for himself and seize a major city with the army that's loyal to him and not the state never causes any long-term problems moscow, third rome
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Jun 24, 2023 04:43
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CNN says Prigozhin says his units got hit by a chopper on the Moscow Highway and plans to  anything in his way.
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Jun 24, 2023 04:45
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Colonel Kurtzgozhin
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Jun 24, 2023 04:59
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Ruslan says less than 100 Wagner soldiers are in Rostov, that's a really small part of their forces.
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Jun 24, 2023 05:01
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The X-man cometh posted:Ruslan says less than 100 Wagner soldiers are in Rostov, that's a really small part of their forces. Really? How has the MoD not cleared out just 100 Wagner mercenaries out of Rostov?
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Jun 24, 2023 05:14
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The X-man cometh posted:Ruslan says less than 100 Wagner soldiers are in Rostov, that's a really small part of their forces. Ruslan is saying a lot of things, including that the armed men entering the MOD building in Rostov are not Wagner. Which, tends to run counter to what a lot of other analysts are saying. That's not to say he's wrong, though.
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Jun 24, 2023 05:16
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Quote not edit
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Jun 24, 2023 05:19
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Ruslan is saying a lot of things, including that the armed men entering the MOD building in Rostov are not Wagner. Which, tends to run counter to what a lot of other analysts are saying. That's not to say he's wrong, though. tbf if it isn't wagner sieging the southern military district hq then ru mod has a far, far bigger problem
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Jun 24, 2023 05:24
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Torrannor posted:Really? How has the MoD not cleared out just 100 Wagner mercenaries out of Rostov?
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Jun 24, 2023 05:27
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Herstory Begins Now posted:tbf if it isn't wagner sieging the southern military district hq then ru mod has a far, far bigger problem Meant more about the 100 troops, but tbf nobody really seems to be sure what's going on.
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Jun 24, 2023 05:27
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Yep, it’s happening. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/wagner-coup-russia-us-reaction-joe-biden-vladimir-putin/
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Jun 24, 2023 05:29
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Truly Tom Clancy was a sage
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Jun 24, 2023 05:31
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I've seen random Twitter takes saying that this is just an attempt to weed out dissenters. Is there any chance that's true? It seems like a bad idea though because what if your honeypot coup turns into a real one?
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Jun 24, 2023 05:33
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windshipper posted:Yep, it’s happening. Alright now all we need is an Onion article along the lines of "Biden Press Conference: In light of recent events in Russia, I am hereby ordering the military to confiscate any arms more deadly than paintball markers from <Whatever Blackwater calls themselves these days"
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Jun 24, 2023 05:33
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Clancy was incredibly wrong because all of his ideas revolved around a smart and competent opponent of America..
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Jun 24, 2023 05:34
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Spoggerific posted:I've seen random Twitter takes saying that this is just an attempt to weed out dissenters. Is there any chance that's true? It seems like a bad idea though because what if your honeypot coup turns into a real one? 
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Jun 24, 2023 05:34
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Spoggerific posted:I've seen random Twitter takes saying that this is just an attempt to weed out dissenters. Is there any chance that's true? It seems like a bad idea though because what if your honeypot coup turns into a real one?
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Jun 24, 2023 05:41
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windshipper posted:Yep, it’s happening. 
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Jun 24, 2023 05:41
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Cugel the Clever posted:It's far too damaging to the regime's credibility to lose a major city to rebels for it to be a ploy. Yeah, that makes sense. I think I'll just stay away from Twitter since I'm just too dumb to filter the bullshit out from the few useful sources. Sorry for being a reactionary idiot. Spoggerific fucked around with this message at 05:49 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 05:45
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windshipper posted:Yep, it’s happening. Wild, earlier today I was ready to write the whole thing off as another case of the internet rumor mill going haywire. Wonder how this weekend is going to shape up 
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Jun 24, 2023 05:49
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