(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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might have been worried one side or another might shoot it down?
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Jun 24, 2023 07:05
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:someone woke me up from a sound sleep with a text that things are popping off in russia yes if you like history
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Jun 24, 2023 07:06
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:someone woke me up from a sound sleep with a text that things are popping off in russia You're in for a hell of a delirious ride. poo poo is crazy.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:06
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:someone woke me up from a sound sleep with a text that things are popping off in russia The internal tension between Wagner and the Russian military that’s been building since the war began has finally boiled over. Prigozhin has taken Rostov and is openly defying—and perhaps even actively fighting—the military within Russia. Regardless of how this turns out, it will be consequential.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:09
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:someone woke me up from a sound sleep with a text that things are popping off in russia wagner has rebelled and now control rostov and don't look like they want to stop your call
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Jun 24, 2023 07:10
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:someone woke me up from a sound sleep with a text that things are popping off in russia To sum it up: the Wagner guy finally crossed the proverbial Rubicon (or the literal Don, I guess?), decided to go full blitzkreig on the motherland and is somehow still alive. He's captured Rostov, by all accounts basically without a fight, and is currently making solid progress to Moscow. How much longer this crazy train keeps going or where it ends, nobody has a drat clue right now but it sure isn't looking great for Putin at the moment.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:11
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MeinPanzer posted:The situation is complex, but Prigozhin is basically best understood as a warlord. He performed a service for Putin by creating a mercenary arm of the military that could do a lot of dirty work for the regime and for it he was rewarded with a considerable amount of leeway in how he used those forces. Like any power player in these kinds of situations, he’d probably like to take supreme power if he could, but for now he’s using anything at his disposal to save his own hide. To add to this slightly, #4 seems to have made this the huge put up or shut up for Prigozhin. Prigozhin is in a sort of 'fall of the republic' roman position. He has a fairly big army of people who are loyal to him above the nominal state they serve. This give him power and most importantly, protection. A bunch of the other power players like Shoigu look at him and see the danger (both to the state, and to their own attempt at becoming the right hand man, obvious successor when Putin croaks) and they decided to cut him off at the knees by forcing Wagner into the MoD. This not only risks Prigozhin's path to power, but almost certainly his actual safety. If he gets stripped of Wagner, then the low end risk is that he gets convicted of some trumped up charges and goes to prison. Worst case is he falls out a window like a common journalist, or 'murder-suicides' his whole family like a couple other recent oligarchs. The cutoff for the integration was (I believe) end of the month. So it is flee the country, consign yourself to prison/death, or do a coup. I'll be honest though, I didn't see 'do a coup' being the option he went with.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:12
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well gently caress, like the one day in the last month i go out on the town instead of religiously following this thread for some reason i always assumed the conflict between prigozhin and the military was a shadow play done with the consent of putin, but the timing of this can't have been anything he signed off on maybe it's the sleep and the alcohol talking but it feels like the i sense the ghosts of tsushima and 1905 in the air
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Jun 24, 2023 07:14
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I wonder if this is a gimmick or legitimate mental illness? Can we sneak Willow under the Kerch bridge in a mini-sub? Like a "putting Lenin on a train" kind of thing. Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 07:20 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 07:15
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How hath the mighty Russian Army fallen. From the defense at Stalingrad to being held up by a bunch of mercenaries. Stalin is rolling in his grave (and is still trying to figure a way to break out of his grave to shoot ALL the generals. Wagner? Russian? They all get shot.)
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Jun 24, 2023 07:16
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A lot of this crazy poo poo is easier to understand if you have had the "what's the penalty for being late? What's the penalty for treason?" skit explained to you And that says a lot for this cool zone farce of modernity we live in lol
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Jun 24, 2023 07:16
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Thanks for the follow up.MeinPanzer posted:This all undoubtedly led to: So the minimum he wants to achieve is to maintain his power and influence by keeping Wagner his own independent force. But if he hits the jackpot and everything comes up Prigozhin, he'd want to replace the MoD top brass with himself or someone in his pocket? And as for the war, he'd basically still defer to Putin rather than push his own agenda for the moment?
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Jun 24, 2023 07:19
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https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1672489503208947712 offering an amnesty and asking wagner fighters to please stop isn't much of a power move.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:21
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Are there any longform YT recaps of what’s gone on the past day or is everything still so fluid that I shouldn’t bother? What a strange country.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:22
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Emsee posted:And as for the war, he'd basically still defer to Putin rather than push his own agenda for the moment? My man is moving on Moscow. It doesn't matter if his objectives are exactly what he says. This is a rebellion or coup attempt. Letting it slide is an act of extreme weakness in a society that abhors it. Also what use has Prigozhin for Putin if he can be king? Either Prigozhin is dead or he's the unofficial ruler of Russia by the end of the week.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:23
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Herstory Begins Now posted:yes if you like history I don't like it, but apparently, I'm stuck living through it.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:25
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I wonder if this is a gimmick or legitimate mental illness? I have it on good authority that after Rostov, Pirgozhin's next objective is marching on Willo567's balls.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:26
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:for some reason i always assumed the conflict between prigozhin and the military was a shadow play done with the consent of putin, but the timing of this can't have been anything he signed off on Crazy theory: the "coup" is manufactured, the special military operation is actually near a breaking point and the narrative of withdrawing from most of Ukraine due to a crisis at home is more palatable than the narrative of being defeated outright by the Ukrainians
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Jun 24, 2023 07:35
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Staluigi posted:A lot of this crazy poo poo is easier to understand if you have had the "what's the penalty for being late? What's the penalty for treason?" skit explained to you I wish I knew which goon I first heard it from, it's buried somewhere in one of the ancient history or possibly milhist threads and I've been gleefully repeating the story ever since.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:35
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Flavahbeast posted:Crazy theory: the "coup" is manufactured, the special military operation is actually near a breaking point and the narrative of withdrawing from most of Ukraine due to a crisis at home is more palatable than the narrative of being defeated outright by the Ukrainians Not as crazy as what's been going on today
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Jun 24, 2023 07:36
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Flavahbeast posted:Crazy theory: the "coup" is manufactured, the special military operation is actually near a breaking point and the narrative of withdrawing from most of Ukraine due to a crisis at home is more palatable than the narrative of being defeated outright by the Ukrainians In the early hours of the coup this might have been plausible, but there's zero loving way that Russia starts crashing helicopters and surrounding regional military HQs with tanks just for propaganda theater. Among other things that's going way, way harder than Russia ever bothers for staged events.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:37
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Well, something interesting about those helicopter crashes:  edit: ok newer posts from fighter_bomber have amended this Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 07:38
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Flavahbeast posted:Crazy theory: the "coup" is manufactured, the special military operation is actually near a breaking point and the narrative of withdrawing from most of Ukraine due to a crisis at home is more palatable than the narrative of being defeated outright by the Ukrainians I mean it's an interesting idea, but what about the Russian government's performance over the past few years suggests they could pull off such a thing?
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Jun 24, 2023 07:39
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Also the rebellious faction is pissed because they think Russia isn’t fighting hard enough. Nobody any side of this internal madness wants to fight Ukraine less.
Skippy McPants fucked around with this message at 08:01 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 07:39
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Flavahbeast posted:Crazy theory: the "coup" is manufactured, the special military operation is actually near a breaking point and the narrative of withdrawing from most of Ukraine due to a crisis at home is more palatable than the narrative of being defeated outright by the Ukrainians Theory requires believing 11-D chess machinations on the part of russia, which has spent this entire war proving that they're just doing the dumbest poo poo possible most of the time and destroying the country's future prospects
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Jun 24, 2023 07:40
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Skippy McPants posted:Also the rebelliousness faction is pissed because they think Russia isn’t fighting hard enough. Nobody any side of this internal madness wants to fight Ukraine less. Lol, sounds like the February revolution, we just gotta overthrow
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Jun 24, 2023 07:45
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Chalks posted:I disagree, the Kremlin have clearly freaked out and initiated a bunch of emergency plans - all of which look like a massive overreaction in the face of zero actual armed rebellion. They've got roadblocks around Moscow and military vehicles on the streets in response to one guy sending out a bunch of voice messages. It's kinda embarrassing if literally nothing happens, I can't imagine this is orchestrated. Sure, but the vibes I was getting before going to bed were "wow, this feels like Turkey's coup". The one that had some very dubious timing and let Erdogan conveniently purge thousands of people from civil society under a pretext. At this stage it seems to have gotten a little too big for that, but I maintain that the players involved should turn the Drama Dial down a bit. It's currently at 12.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:46
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The Glumslinger posted:Lol, sounds like the February revolution, we just gotta overthrow Sounds more like Napoleon - armies keep being sent to capture him and surrender to him instead. — 9th March, the Anthropophagus has quitted his den — 10th, the Corsican Ogre has landed at Cape Juan — 11th, the Tiger has arrived at Gap — 12th, the Monster slept at Grenoble — 13th, the Tyrant has passed through Lyons — 14th, the Usurper is directing his steps towards Dijon, but the brave and loyal Burgundians have risen en masse and surrounded him on all sides — 18th, Bonaparte is only sixty leagues from the capital; he has been fortunate enough to escape the hands of his pursuers — 19th, Bonaparte is advancing with rapid steps, but he will never enter Paris — 20th, Napoleon will, tomorrow, be under our ramparts — 21st, the Emperor is at Fontainbleau — 22nd, His Imperial and Royal Majesty, yesterday evening, arrived at the Tuileries, amidst the joyful acclamations of his devoted and faithful subjects.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:48
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Skippy McPants posted:Also the rebelliousness faction is pissed because they think Russia isn’t fighting hard enough. Nobody any side of this internal madness wants to fight Ukraine less. Absolutely, but of course them being at each other's throats will, ironically, absolutely hamstring that goal. I struggle to see any outcome for this where Russia is still able to effectively wage war in Ukraine. Well, maybe if one side quickly and decisively overcomes the other with minimal bloodshed and there are no holdouts. Fat chance of that, though.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:49
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Google Jeb Bush posted:I wish I knew which goon I first heard it from, it's buried somewhere in one of the ancient history or possibly milhist threads and I've been gleefully repeating the story ever since. Sounds like the Dazexiang Uprising story, if that helps you find it
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Jun 24, 2023 07:50
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There's reports Voronezh has fallen. Putins speech has been postponed indefinitely.
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Jun 24, 2023 07:52
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Wonder if we're going to start hearing Russian TV report victories over the armed revolt, each one 50km closer to Moscow
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Jun 24, 2023 07:52
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acidx posted:There's reports Voronezh has fallen. Putins speech has been postponed indefinitely. You got a source for this, varmint?!
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Jun 24, 2023 07:54
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mutata posted:You got a source for this, varmint?! I've got a source for the first part. https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1672496390486851584?t=QnH2luHGhQW-jYl9uAGL_g&s=19 (this is a bureau chief for Middle East Eye, based in Turkiye) Edit: And for a more familiar outlet, here's an FT reporter. https://twitter.com/SameralAtrush/status/1672496945951121410?t=7Y9D8mD3XanbwwpxAznE1g&s=19 Mirotic fucked around with this message at 08:02 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 07:58
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Sounds like Wagner is the originator of the claim, so grain of salt. https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672493722217467904
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Jun 24, 2023 08:02
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How is Wagner supposed to operate without the army's logistics network? They still need ammo, fuel and food. Or are they literally looting army bases.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:03
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Mirotic posted:I've got a source for the first part. Well BOY HOWDY!
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Jun 24, 2023 08:05
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WaltherFeng posted:How is Wagner supposed to operate without the army's logistics network? They still need ammo, fuel and food. Or are they literally looting army bases. that's what Wagner and Anonymous Source are saying they're doing, seems like
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Jun 24, 2023 08:06
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acidx posted:Sounds like Wagner is the originator of the claim, so grain of salt. Not quite. Reuters apparently got it from a Russian security source. Semi-related, but Putin just made his address. BBC live coverage. Edited to add - that same page does have text reporting as well as video. Sample below. Interesting that he's not naming names, but suppose it's an attempt to suppress in some way? 
Mirotic fucked around with this message at 08:11 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 08:07
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 10:23 |
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Tldr of putin speech from other thread: wagner group troops at large were misled and betrayed by their leaders (lol), please stop participating in Unnamed Scoundrel's rebellion, etc etc. Definitely doesn't sound like the kind of thing where Prigo has an out that doesn't involve dying, if he ever did.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:11
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