(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Genuinely afraid of Wagner being successful. The whole nukes as doctrinal response to regime change really comes down to Putins mindset. I doubt wagner will take moscow in 3 days anymore than kiev but who knows at this point.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:56
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Nenonen posted:Do you remember how the August 1991 coup ended? I do. He can't win.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:01
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nimby posted:It's a civil war if the coup fails both to succeed and be suppressed. Special Civil Operation, please
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Jun 24, 2023 12:01
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deathbysnusnu posted:Genuinely afraid of Wagner being successful. The whole nukes as doctrinal response to regime change really comes down to Putins mindset. I doubt wagner will take moscow in 3 days anymore than kiev but who knows at this point.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:03
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Nenonen posted:I'm curious how this is seen in China. Does their media even mention the existence of a private military company that recruits murderers? Imagine trying to explain all of this now. I can't imagine the CCP and Xi starting to trust Putin more when he lets this happen either. I truly believe that the Chinese have been pulling their hair out for the last 18 months at Putin's stalwart determination to make everything more difficult for them than it needs to be. I don't seriously think that Chinese policymakers perceived any advantage for them with the war in the first place and now the prospect of it turning into an attempted coup or worse an outright civil war for their largest neighbour is turning into the worst possible outcome.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:03
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Nenonen posted:Do you remember how the August 1991 coup ended? I do. He can't win. All of the soldiers who could stop him are locked up in Ukraine though. And if they get recalled to fight an insurrection Ukraine takes back its territories. It's actually a pretty smart play. That and the 1991 coup was 32 years ago, there has been a lot of changes and the circumstances are pretty wildly different now. This isn't me saying you're wrong. I think Prigozhin's gonna get to moscow and fail and be dead soon. But this isn't a 0% thing. The more successful he is at a rebellion the more he looks like the winning side. People side with winners.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:04
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CSM posted:Who is he supposed to nuke? His own capital? Rostov? Not saying it's rational but if he doesn't have loyal troops the guy who allegedly watches the qaddafi snuf tape on loop might roll the dice on a tactical nuke if he's at the bunker stage of how things are going.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:05
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Prigozhin is a true Milo Minderbinder of Russia.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:06
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deathbysnusnu posted:Genuinely afraid of Wagner being successful. The whole nukes as doctrinal response to regime change really comes down to Putins mindset. I doubt wagner will take moscow in 3 days anymore than kiev but who knows at this point. At this point I kinda doubt these famous russian nukes still exist, much less are operable.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:07
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Hiekkakauppias posted:Prigozhin is a true Milo Minderbinder of Russia. Down to getting his government to bomb itself.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:08
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CSM posted:I too hope Russia dissolves. Just like a week back I read an article about possible breakup lines of Russia, and my reaction was "PSSHWYEAH RIGHT!"  Now I'm not convinced that Kaliningrad will become independent Baltic Republic in my lifetime, but my reaction to the idea is a lot milder.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:08
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672562059257556996
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Jun 24, 2023 12:09
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Nenonen posted:I'm curious how this is seen in China. Does their media even mention the existence of a private military company that recruits murderers? Imagine trying to explain all of this now. I can't imagine the CCP and Xi starting to trust Putin more when he lets this happen either. Not a big poster but thought I could answer this. I don't watch TV news, but I've been checking Baidu news. Currently of the top 15 searches like 7 of them have to do with the current Wagner ordeal. They are using the word rebellion, they covered Putin's speech, and I've seen lots of stories here and there online. It is well-known (at least to people who follow this) that Wagner is a mercenary group.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:10
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DaiJiaTeng posted:Not a big poster but thought I could answer this. Thank you! Very helpful.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:11
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Reading that the Wagner column headed towards Moscow is now being hit by airstrikes. Seems a long time coming.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:13
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672564599474868224
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Jun 24, 2023 12:17
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672564074788388864
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Jun 24, 2023 12:19
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Ignoring all final outcomes, in the short-term this has to present an incredible military opportunity for Ukraine, no? Unless I'm fundamentally misunderstanding the value of that much arms and armour just leaving the frontlines to go coup. Not to mention diverting resources, attention and blocking supply lines.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:20
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OddObserver posted:https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1672550303785271296 I bet Armenia had a good hearty laugh at Russia asking for help.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:23
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Jeza posted:Ignoring all final outcomes, in the short-term this has to present an incredible military opportunity for Ukraine, no? Unless I'm fundamentally misunderstanding the value of that much arms and armour just leaving the frontlines to go coup. Not to mention diverting resources, attention and blocking supply lines. Absolutely, if the "free russia" forces making border incursions was a useful tactic for Ukraine, this is that x1000. I imagine reinforcements and resupply for the Ukraine front is now paused until this situation is over. They'll have stockpiles so if this is resolved quickly the impact could be minimal, but there seem to be no signs of that at the moment. Not to mention the paralysis of the command structure (especially bad given how top heavy Russia's military decision making is) and general confusion and morale impact on the troops.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:24
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Jeza posted:Ignoring all final outcomes, in the short-term this has to present an incredible military opportunity for Ukraine, no? Unless I'm fundamentally misunderstanding the value of that much arms and armour just leaving the frontlines to go coup. Not to mention diverting resources, attention and blocking supply lines. I'm curious about this too for two reasons: 1. I've heard people say that there are still tons of Russian troops on the frontline and if the rebellion is crushed in a few days it may not be enough time for the Ukrainians to take advantage of things while its ongoing, but surely it must be wrecking complete chaos in the Russian military in terms of things like logistics, intel, morale and command that the Ukrainians could exploit for weeks? 2. I haven't heard much about the actual progress about the counter offensive and I have been generally pessimistic about its success, but is there a possibility that Prigozhin is doing this now because the counter-offensive has mauled the Russian army and he's either reacting to people looking for scapegoats of which he is the most obvious one to blame, or hoping to take advantage of a distracted and weakened regular Russian military?
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Jun 24, 2023 12:25
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Jeza posted:Ignoring all final outcomes, in the short-term this has to present an incredible military opportunity for Ukraine, no? Unless I'm fundamentally misunderstanding the value of that much arms and armour just leaving the frontlines to go coup. Not to mention diverting resources, attention and blocking supply lines. It also might be possible they'll have to pull other forces from the front to deal with Wagner. But I were Ukraine i'd be laying on some extra pressure.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:25
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The biggest irony is that when Putin was asked about amnesty for non-violent criminals, he always said that when Kerensky opened up prisons it lead to a revolution (a really bad historical take, by the way, as expected from Putin). And then he does one better and not only lets thousands of violent criminals out of prison, he literally gives them weapons. Good one.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:28
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khwarezm posted:I'm curious about this too for two reasons: The counteroffensive progress has been slow but steady. The defences are made up of several lines, so Ukraine has to find weak points to exploit and when they do, there will be a brief rush of small settlements being liberated until the front line stabilises again and this is repeated. Russia has had a lot of time to prepare and it's literally just a case of wearing them down at their weakest points - unless they're willing to take heavy losses, and the reaction to that one failed offensive push shows that the west doesn't have the balls to see them do that. Ukraine will have their own timetable for committing their reserves to the main counteroffensive push. This may speed it up, but they won't do it immediately because as you say, the effects will take some time to happen. I bet there are a lot of eyes on the front lines at the moment though.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:28
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khwarezm posted:I'm curious about this too for two reasons: In one of his recent missives, Prigozhin claimed Russian casualties were extremely high and the government was concealing the scope of the carnage that was going on, hiding corpses of dead soldiers etc. Though that may have been just a lie to lend himself legitimacy, or describing the normal situation and not indicative of a breakthrough.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:28
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Jeza posted:Ignoring all final outcomes, in the short-term this has to present an incredible military opportunity for Ukraine, no? Unless I'm fundamentally misunderstanding the value of that much arms and armour just leaving the frontlines to go coup. Not to mention diverting resources, attention and blocking supply lines. It's going to divert Russian attention, weaken morale and cause logistical hiccups. But in the immediate future the mines and obstacles on their way still need to be cleared, and the Russian troops in Donbas aren't going to just start racing to Moscow to stop Prigozhin. Prigozhin's forces were in reserve when this happened. Now that reserve is gone and won't be available to stop a possible Ukrainian breakthrough. Oh and Russian tactical aviation reserves are also pretty tied up with this. So it will probably take a while for results to show.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:30
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A good poster posted:I bet Armenia had a good hearty laugh at Russia asking for help. He hasn't called Pashinyan yet. Might not even call him at all, because it would be too awkward.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:30
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Jeza posted:Ignoring all final outcomes, in the short-term this has to present an incredible military opportunity for Ukraine, no? Unless I'm fundamentally misunderstanding the value of that much arms and armour just leaving the frontlines to go coup. Not to mention diverting resources, attention and blocking supply lines. I don't think Wagner was active on the frontline post-Bakhmut, but with the recent Ukraine strikes on Russian logistics they really can't afford to have several internal routes locked, or supplies rerouted to defend against an uprising of any size. If the reports of the Ukrainians breaking through the established defensive line of a few days ago were correct and supplies aren't forthcoming, I could see another Russian rout.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:31
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Armed rebellions run on dunkin': https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1672493492579303424 Actual content tweet, it appears there's some sluggish response in Russia because everyone was out drinking. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672500874113949696
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Jun 24, 2023 12:31
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khwarezm posted:I'm curious about this too for two reasons: The Russian guy manning some trench in Zaporizhzhya does not need orders from a general in Rostov to fire back, and it would take a while for ammo to run low ---- if it's even affected at all! The most likely immediate effect is that the air assets are distracted.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:32
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Nenonen posted:Special Civil Operation This'd make a great thread title.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:32
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CSM posted:But I were Ukraine i'd be laying on some extra pressure. I wouldn't expect much too soon. Penetrating the fortifications requires systematic work to clear avenues and suppress defenders, otherwise there will be horrendous casualties. But in a few days there might be shortages in artillery shells, maybe some conscripts start panicking and thinking about going home. Things can start to deteriorate quickly, but not just yet.
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Jun 24, 2023 12:38
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Yeah we're gonna be needing a truly inspired new thread title asap I need our best minds on it cause I'm not gonna come up with anything more clever than wagner the dog
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Jun 24, 2023 12:40
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Jeza posted:Ignoring all final outcomes, in the short-term this has to present an incredible military opportunity for Ukraine, no? Unless I'm fundamentally misunderstanding the value of that much arms and armour just leaving the frontlines to go coup. Not to mention diverting resources, attention and blocking supply lines. Wagner had already mostly withdrawn iirc, so there’s no immediate loss to troop numbers on the lines in Bakhmut. Them burning whatever they couldn’t capture/steal on the other hand, that’ll have some downstream effects 
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Jun 24, 2023 12:40
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War in Ukraine CE: Wag(ner) the Dog War in Ukraine CE: Really Take the Capital in 3 Days This Time War in Ukraine CE: Special Culinary Operation Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 12:48 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 12:44
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Do we have any idea of the size of the Wagner forces? Do they have any air support?
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Jun 24, 2023 12:44
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Staluigi posted:Yeah we're gonna be needing a truly inspired new thread title asap Chef's Special Civil Operation? Chef's Special Rebellion?
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Jun 24, 2023 12:46
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Morrow posted:Chef's Special Civil Operation? Chef's Special Rebellion? Special Culinary Operation
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Jun 24, 2023 12:46
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Rinkles posted:Do we have any idea of the size of the Wagner forces? Do they have any air support? Prigozhin claimed in his TG manifesto that he had 25000 men under him, but there's no telling how truthful that is. As for air support... do valkyries count??
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Jun 24, 2023 12:47
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Rust Martialis posted:Special Culinary Operation
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Jun 24, 2023 12:48
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