(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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acidx posted:Prigozhin has made a big show of not affecting the war effort, but he's marching on Moscow and Russia has made clear that there will be no deal. As soon as any significant fighting happens, Wagner is going to have to use every available resource to hurt the Russian military. Prigozhin doesn't die if Ukraine makes advances in Ukraine, but he sure will if the Russian army takes over their positions in Russia. If by Monday there's still fighting outside Moscow and Prigozhin isn't sitting in the Kremlin, he's lost. That's not enough time for anything major to happen in Rostov that changes how the front looks for Ukraine.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:35
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I believed that Wagner was deliberately denied heavy armour and AA to keep them harmless. Now we see all kinds of modern armour and AA in the convoys. What happened?
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Jun 24, 2023 16:35
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The Question IRL posted:
Have you not learned anything from Elon Musk? You can't buy posting cred.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:36
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Ynglaur posted:[*]I wish Cinci were here itt to chat with us.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:37
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Sigmund Fraud posted:I believed that Wagner was deliberately denied heavy armour and AA to keep them harmless. Now we see all kinds of modern armour and AA in the convoys. What happened? They raided Rostov and Voronezh.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:37
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https://twitter.com/salisbot/status/1672368404743741442?t=RM1Lf5y0d3iT9ig7BId6MQ&s=19 Since it's likely that the Russian reporting sources are too busy with the Wagner vs. Putin insurrection, and Ukraine isn't reporting at all, news about Ukraine's advances are going to be spotty, but they're making some success... https://twitter.com/BarracudaVol1/status/1672611091288055809?t=2QrOYi7kORkzo1Lpz2JaUw&s=19
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Jun 24, 2023 16:38
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Sigmund Fraud posted:I believed that Wagner was deliberately denied heavy armour and AA to keep them harmless. Now we see all kinds of modern armour and AA in the convoys. What happened? If you believed that you were mistaken. They were/are well equipped with modern poo poo like T-90s and BMP-3s, their own artillery and air defense assets.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:39
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The thing that really blows my mind about all of this is that there have been rumours for years that Putin is absolutely obsessed with the fate of Gaddafi and is desperate to avoid any outcome similar to being gutted in the street by an angry mob, and yet all of the events that led to this point in the last two years fall on his shoulders and the increasingly unhinged actions he took, his hand was never forced by outside actors. Everything could have been avoided if he just stopped the military build up back in February 2022 and said 'Lol, look at the dumb Americans claiming we were going to invade Ukraine, they sure have egg on their faces!', whatever potential advantages he thought he could gain with the invasion absolutely cannot have been worth the upheaval it unleashed for him personally. I hope he's stuck in siege mode right now constantly thinking 'If only I didn't do X, everything would be fine!' khwarezm fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 16:39
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Nothingtoseehere posted:If by Monday there's still fighting outside Moscow and Prigozhin isn't sitting in the Kremlin, he's lost. That's not enough time for anything major to happen in Rostov that changes how the front looks for Ukraine. If the advance gets stalled, they can always hunker down. He's got tens of thousands of men. If they are able to get situated in a defensive position in an inconvenient place for Russia, they could wreak havoc for weeks. It would take a proper siege to clear them out. The real question is how far these drunk mercs will follow him. If it starts to look like his ship is sinking, and they all flee like rats, then it won't be catastrophic for Russia. If they are in it till the end, Russia has a real problem on their hands.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:40
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acidx posted:If the advance gets stalled, they can always hunker down. He's got tens of thousands of men. If they are able to get situated in a defensive position in an inconvenient place for Russia, they could wreak havoc for weeks. It would take a proper siege to clear them out. The real question is how far these drunk mercs will follow him. If it starts to look like his ship is sinking, and they all flee like rats, then it won't be catastrophic for Russia. If they are in it till the end, Russia has a real problem on their hands. It seems like these drunk mercs were willing to call their families and "say goodbye" the day before so I get that they're willing to go as far as it takes.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:42
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So when do those political TV shows air in Russia? Like, Solovyov and other propagandists? Next episode is going to be wild.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:43
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acidx posted:Keep in mind Ukraine was saying that some poo poo was going to go down for a couple months now. They've had time to monitor this situation and plan for it. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if the CIA (and by extension Ukraine) had very good internal intelligence on Wagner. They seem like the sort of organization that would be fairly east to get agents inside of, at least compared to the sort of spookfests that Putin likes running. Not to suggest that the CIA is calling the shots here or anything like that, just that it's more likely than usual that they've got people on the inside feeding them stuff. edit: this is to say nothing of Ukraine's no-doubt considerable intelligence efforts Haystack fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 16:43
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Sigmund Fraud posted:I believed that Wagner was deliberately denied heavy armour and AA to keep them harmless. Now we see all kinds of modern armour and AA in the convoys. What happened? Wagner has had basic short-range SAMs and T-90s for a long time. Just less of them.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:43
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I am having a hard time not imaging Putin on phone with 1st Guards Tank Army going: "I said guard Kremlin, not Kreminna!"
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Jun 24, 2023 16:44
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Boris Galerkin posted:It seems like these drunk mercs were willing to call their families and "say goodbye" the day before so I get that they're willing to go as far as it takes. the size of wagner means they need to win in a decapitation strike or by defections from the rest of the military/secuity services. if they get bogged down and stopped, they've lost and just haven't admitted it yet - but their soldiers may be willing to admit it by slipping away and claiming they were never there or they were deceived.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:44
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FishMcCool posted:So when do those political TV shows air in Russia? Like, Solovyov and other propagandists? Next episode is going to be wild. Evidently Channel 1 is just playing commercials. https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1672497184024203265
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Jun 24, 2023 16:45
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Important update: https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1672629444555468803
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Jun 24, 2023 16:45
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FishMcCool posted:So when do those political TV shows air in Russia? Like, Solovyov and other propagandists? Next episode is going to be wild. Solovyov made a video decrying Wagner. In a car. Driving away from somewhere. Hmm....
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Jun 24, 2023 16:46
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FishMcCool posted:So when do those political TV shows air in Russia? Like, Solovyov and other propagandists? Next episode is going to be wild. The TV set and station is a prime target for Wagnar. We might have men with guns on set in the next few hours.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:46
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Ok some actual news this time: https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1672631883404902409
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Jun 24, 2023 16:47
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FishMcCool posted:So when do those political TV shows air in Russia? Like, Solovyov and other propagandists? Next episode is going to be wild. They don't have those on weekends. There are some pre-recorded/pre-written late-night shows that most likely won't focus on the Wagner situation. Plus, it's the proms season, the need to keep things light.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:47
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Ynglaur posted:A few thoughts from a random vetgoon on a dead comedy forum: Ditto about Cinci. Your field officer assessment lines up with what I've heard from Kofman and co. along with conversations I've had with u.s. vets in the past on peacetime/wartime leadership dynamics. I think you are right about that. I hope fatherboxx is not too hungover based on his posts last night.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:47
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Djarum posted:Evidently Channel 1 is just playing commercials. WE GOT A SWAN LAKE SITUATION HERE BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Jun 24, 2023 16:47
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Moon Slayer posted:Ok some actual news this time: Bringing with them a 3-day weekend, Wagner will be welcomed as liberators
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Jun 24, 2023 16:48
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Djarum posted:Evidently Channel 1 is just playing commercials. It's a sad statement on the state of the arts in capitalist society that traditional Swan Lake showings have been replaced with endless commercial blocks.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:48
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Moon Slayer posted:Ok some actual news this time: "Monday has been declared a [NUCLEAR] snow day. That is all."
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Jun 24, 2023 16:49
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Djarum posted:Evidently Channel 1 is just playing commercials. This is not Channel One, it's Russia 24. It's where they have non-stop regional and national news 24/7.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:49
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Moon Slayer posted:Ok some actual news this time: War in Ukraine CE: SMO: Special Mercenary Operation
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Jun 24, 2023 16:49
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smug n stuff posted:Does anyone know if Prigozhin is with the convoy, or still in Rostov? He stated, and of course he lies a lot, he was staying in Rostov and waiting for Shoigu (& Gerasimov?) to meet him there, or something? If I remember correctly. He isn't leading the vanguard, that's for sure.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:51
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So let's say Prigozhin does overthrow Putin. How do we make sure that Prigozhin doesn't do anything stupid? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 24, 2023 16:52
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smug n stuff posted:Does anyone know if Prigozhin is with the convoy, or still in Rostov? Confirmed to be in Rostov as of this morning (local time)
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Jun 24, 2023 16:53
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Willo567 posted:So let's say Prigozhin does overthrow Putin. How do we make sure that Prigozhin doesn't do anything stupid? We can't, that's why this is such fun, literally anything could happen. Exciting isn't it...
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Jun 24, 2023 16:53
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Willo567 posted:So let's say Prigozhin does overthrow Putin. How do we make sure that Prigozhin doesn't do anything stupid? At that point the CIA will unleash its mind-control ray guns and assert control of his brain, assuring nothing goes wrong.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:54
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Is there any evidence of air strikes (beyond a few random helicopters) on the Wagner convoy? If Putin has lost the loyalty of his air force to the degree that they won't put down a force marching on the capital he seems pretty done
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Jun 24, 2023 16:54
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Willo567 posted:So let's say Prigozhin does overthrow Putin. How do we make sure that Prigozhin doesn't do anything stupid? What does SA do? Shitpost probably.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:54
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Willo567 posted:So let's say Prigozhin does overthrow Putin. How do we make sure that Prigozhin doesn't do anything stupid? There are a lot of things you can't control in life. Like being a genocidal shithead who gives a psychopath with ambition his own private army. Well. I guess you can control that. But there are still lots of things you can't control in life Willo.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:55
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evilweasel posted:the size of wagner means they need to win in a decapitation strike or by defections from the rest of the military/secuity services. if they get bogged down and stopped, they've lost and just haven't admitted it yet - but their soldiers may be willing to admit it by slipping away and claiming they were never there or they were deceived. It depends on the perception. Every day Prigozhin lives, Putin looks weaker. A sustained campaign may eventually lead to a collapse of Putin's regime. If they don't immediately take Moscow, the chances of Prigozhin becoming president drop dramatically, but he could still win, and he could certainly cause a whole lot of trouble even if he loses.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:55
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lagidnam posted:Putin came out and called him a traitor. This ends when Prigozev is either dead or Putin forgives him. (or we get a new Wagner friendly president) Yes. Except that Putin would have to be clinically insane to "forgive" Prigozhin. That's how more than one dictator has lost power and life both together, starting famously with Julius Caesar. I don't think much of Putin, but I'm pretty sure he's probably that smart and certainly that ruthless. And realistically, I don't really think Putin could walk the "traitor" statement back, even if he wanted to. Which I don't think he does. Not at this point. His best outcome is to put Prigozhin in a hole in the ground, stone dead, with formal state sanction, and with as little fuss as possible. Prigozhin absolutely must either do the same to Putin, or cause enough chaos and havoc so that somebody else can and does. I want to note at this point that Laurent Kabila was offed by his second in command, not by any of his opponents in the Second Congo War. And Kabila was far from the first dictator to be sent on his way by a senior commander or a bodyguard. If things go to hell badly enough, Prigozhin and his people may not actually need to get within a country mile of Putin in order to get him killed. But one or the other is probably going to be dead by the end of next month. Unless they go the way Syria went.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:55
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Willo567 posted:So let's say Prigozhin does overthrow Putin. How do we make sure that Prigozhin doesn't do anything stupid? There's absolutely nothing anybody could do. Prigozhin will 100% stroll into the Kremlin, go straight for the nuclear football, and launch ever Russian strategic asset directly at your balls.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:56
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Willo567 posted:So let's say Prigozhin does overthrow Putin. How do we make sure that Prigozhin doesn't do anything stupid? Nobody knows. This is one of those historical situations where poo poo is getting real.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:58
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