(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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Rumors saying Shoigu has been detained: https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672675077417062408
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Jun 24, 2023 20:05
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| # ? May 31, 2024 00:35 |
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parthenocarpy posted:If he just lost the root of his political power, how do you reconcile that with the fact that he's still running Russia? Like, I get it, you guys really want this to discredit Putin and make him look like a fool. I want the guy gone. This isn't him going away, this is a mending of a really lovely situation they had and they go back to war with Ukraine. You guys get that, right? Like, Russia reuniting is a real possibility, they could come out stronger from this, not weaker, and I don't know why so many of you feel that is a certainty. I just don't get it. Putin has just been proven to be less powerful than everybody, in Russia and elsewhere, thought he was. It turns out that you can get away (even if only temporarily) with rising up in arms and getting very close to Moscow. That shouldn't have happened. Russia should have smushed the Wagner Group into smithereens long before they got that far. Moscow (read: the government) is in play. It is no longer obviously impossible to take Moscow militarily. It's gone from impossible to being a long shot. There are a lot of powerful oligarchs in Russia whom Putin was successfully riding herd on. All of them are now wondering if there's a way to take their own shot.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:05
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slidebite posted:Any chance if Shoigu genuinely feels threatened he tries something? Stay tuned for Shoigu's march on Moscow.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:05
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slidebite posted:Any chance if Shoigu genuinely feels threatened he tries something? Shoigu was handpicked for his inability to try anything. Granted, the guy who picked him has been demonstrated to have lapses of character judgment before.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:06
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Arsenic Lupin posted:Let me try a business example. Company A says it wants to buy Company B. The takeover falls through. It doesn't matter, because Company B is now seen to be "in play": somebody is eventually going to buy it, and it will cease to exist as an independent entity. Is there a Civilization analogy you could give me, like someone has a Humiliation meter score of 6 and they lose their nation when it hits 7? That would be really cool too! LOL that you think your business analogy has a practical application to wartime Russia
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Jun 24, 2023 20:08
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Arsenic Lupin posted:Let me try a business example. Company A says it wants to buy Company B. The takeover falls through. It doesn't matter, because Company B is now seen to be "in play": somebody is eventually going to buy it, and it will cease to exist as an independent entity. Putin is also paranoid as hell and has been taking out people who might speak out against him. Seeing that he is now in a weak position, they might decide its better to take him out before they get pushed out a window themselves.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:09
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parthenocarpy posted:Is there a Civilization analogy you could give me, like someone has a Humiliation meter score of 6 and they lose their nation when it hits 7? That would be really cool too! LOL that you think your business analogy has a practical application to wartime Russia Nailed it.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:09
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parthenocarpy posted:The entire point I've been trying to make is no one should be certain about anything. When I said last night that this could happen, I said very clearly that it wasn't even likely or even something I'd be hopeful to see. I'm not sure where you got the fact I was feeling certain about anything at all other than resuming the Ukraine war really sucks Your point is stupid or you are arguing it badly. This isn't a videogame where the instant power changes hands the title over someone's head changes or they step down from power and wink out of existence. The ripples from this event could take weeks or months to manifest, but one thing that is very clear to everyone is that Russia tomorrow will not be the same Russia as yesterday. Also God drat was that a hell of a 1k posts to crawl thru since yesterday what the gently caress
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Jun 24, 2023 20:10
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People are being silly in that you can predict exactly the way this would go, most of how this will play out is gonna be based on people whose exact objectives we don’t really know or only kind of know
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Jun 24, 2023 20:10
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yes, but have you considered that by literally ceding part of his authority, putin may actually be stronger than ever?
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Jun 24, 2023 20:10
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2000 new posts since I went to bed, the gently caress happened. is russia in a civil war yet
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Jun 24, 2023 20:10
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It'd be nice if this would lead to less terror bombing of civilians.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:11
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Captain Invictus posted:2000 new posts since I went to bed, the gently caress happened. is russia in a civil war yet buddy i have some good news and some bad news
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Jun 24, 2023 20:11
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parthenocarpy posted:The entire point I've been trying to make is no one should be certain about anything. When I said last night that this could happen, I said very clearly that it wasn't even likely or even something I'd be hopeful to see. I'm not sure where you got the fact I was feeling certain about anything at all other than resuming the Ukraine war really sucks Obviously we don't know what the deal actually is yet. If Prigozhin actually gets to appoint his own MoD people, that's baaaaaaaad for Putin. I'd say it would be pretty accurate to say he's not fully in control of the country. Maybe Prigozhin realized he won't have the support and won't be able to pull it off so will accept some sort of immunity to "avoid bloodshed" and everyone tries to pretend nothing happened. I'm certainly disappointed they aren't shooting each other but we'll see.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:11
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Yeah it’s too early to be claiming this is the end of Putin and everything is uncertain but you can’t really claim that this is a Putin win. If Blackwater marched on DC and Trudeau negotiated with Biden to pardon them and replace his Secretary of Defense I don’t think many people would agree that Biden came out on top in that exchange.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:11
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So how does this shake out for Ukraine? A bunch of Russia units bugged out, a good chuck of Wagner is currently having high tea in Moscow while the Ukrainian's seem to have pinched back a chunk of territory. Is Wagner going back to the front? What effect will Wagners new “permissions” have?
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Jun 24, 2023 20:11
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Captain Invictus posted:2000 new posts since I went to bed, the gently caress happened. is russia in a civil war yet Not happening anymore. Everyone Blinked.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:12
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if you need metaphors, someone already mentioned kornilov. who did his thing 6 weeks before the 1917 civil war cracked open in earnest
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Jun 24, 2023 20:12
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I appreciate the poster who put this in Succession terms so I can understand
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Jun 24, 2023 20:13
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Captain Invictus posted:2000 new posts since I went to bed, the gently caress happened. is russia in a civil war yet Yes but it's over.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:14
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Also it should be said that a large reason why Putin most likely conceded is appeasing a mercenary group during a war is a good idea, but he won’t be at war forever
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Jun 24, 2023 20:14
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Stay safe fatherboxx
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Jun 24, 2023 20:15
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Seems like Putin or the Russian government has yet to say anything at all about the whole affair. The only word about what happened is that of Prigo and Lukasehnka.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:15
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bob dobbs is dead posted:if you need metaphors, someone already mentioned kornilov I mean that was just a failure that eventually led to a coup that ushered the bolsheviks into power. If anything I'm mostly reminded of stuff like when allied Barbarian leader would march on Italy and pillage or threaten to pillage Italy and Rome in exchange for being declared Magister Militum.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:15
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Grape posted:Russia as a general rule feels like it's co-written by Cormac McCarthy and Larry David. Probably the most accurate thing written here People who think their knowledge of the world or history is in any way useful or practical here are nuts. This is war driven chaos where anything happens. You can hope for change in Russia, in the meanwhile the circus continues and Putin is the ringmaster mobby_6kl posted:Obviously we don't know what the deal actually is yet. If Prigozhin actually gets to appoint his own MoD people, that's baaaaaaaad for Putin. I'd say it would be pretty accurate to say he's not fully in control of the country. Like, for real, what does this poo poo even mean?
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Jun 24, 2023 20:16
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The Nazis now own the Russian Military of Defense. Yeah here's the thing under PUTIN the MoD sucked. Under Wagner? I mean my god folks. I think we need to understand what this means as well it basically means every Wagnerite is going to get a massive promotion and turn into an NCO or officer and end up marshalling the remaining Russian soldiers Potentially into a real fighting force. I'm not sure that that's going to happen as I'm on the side that there's going to be even more turmoil that starts to spill over because he's already got people wound up and ready to go and defecting from Putin. You just can't come back from that and go "actually everyone Putin's a good president let's get back to the barracks" .Wagner may go back to the barracks but other factions are going to brew. Russia is boiling. Like is there any doubt that Russia will become even more authoritarian and they will literally start robbing people off the loving streets after this? Like do we really think abductions aren't going to ramp up? With a private military corporation taking control of a public one my comparison would be the Prussian army? Like Wagner's always been a very effective fighting for us even though they use people as Cannon fodder. The main line Wagner guy is a literal career soldier on the frontlines of combat. You need to get out of Russia. And remember the whole Wagner is no more thing yeah that's because Wagner is now called the ministry of defense so this is going to get a very confusing
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Jun 24, 2023 20:16
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parthenocarpy posted:Again, you are running some playbook where arbitrary things like "he's not really in charge because factor XYZ" like what does that mean? Maybe I should put this a different way, are you familiar with the riddle of steel?
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Jun 24, 2023 20:16
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Well I've lost all fear of Putin now. Would probably instinctually shove him around if I ever saw him walking in the street. I could easily dominate such a weak man
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Jun 24, 2023 20:16
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parthenocarpy posted:Like, for real, what does this poo poo even mean? It means exactly what it says.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:17
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Captain Invictus posted:2000 new posts since I went to bed, the gently caress happened. is russia in a civil war yet The least likely outcome happened, Lukashenko negotiated a deal between Wagner and Russia. lol
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Jun 24, 2023 20:17
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parthenocarpy posted:Probably the most accurate thing written here its not the first insane period of chaos in history, tho, is the deal
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Jun 24, 2023 20:17
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(All Three Threads Voice) Whatever happened confirms my priors
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Jun 24, 2023 20:18
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parthenocarpy posted:Probably the most accurate thing written here I don't know how to tell you this, but Russia isn't actually like some unique nightmare state unprecedented in human history. It's entirely possible Putin turns poo poo around and reasserts his grip on power! But even if the deal with Shoigu ends up being false, this is not a good day for him. This does not make him look better or reinforce his control over the state.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:18
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Scarodactyl posted:Putin is not a god, and his power derives from people obeying him. If people show that disobedience does not necessarily bear immediate or serious consequences they might instead do what they want to do. Oh, the riddle of steel. I'm not, forgive me. If the riddle of steel is broken, is Putin legally required to step down? That might be a rule I'm not familiar with, please enlighten me. I imagine breaking the riddle is really bad or something and people think less of you?
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Jun 24, 2023 20:19
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What an interesting birthday this has been.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:19
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GABA ghoul posted:Well I've lost all fear of Putin now. Would probably instinctually shove him around if I ever saw him walking in the street. I could easily dominate such a weak man You could take his lunch money but it's not worth a cold bowl of borscht these days. You should still do it though
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Jun 24, 2023 20:20
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TGLT posted:I don't know how to tell you this, but Russia isn't actually like some unique nightmare state unprecedented in human history. Oh, my b. Thanks for the knowledge I guess!
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Jun 24, 2023 20:20
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parthenocarpy posted:If he just lost the root of his political power, how do you reconcile that with the fact that he's still running Russia? Like, I get it, you guys really want this to discredit Putin and make him look like a fool. I want the guy gone. This isn't him going away, this is a mending of a really lovely situation they had and they go back to war with Ukraine. You guys get that, right? Like, Russia reuniting is a real possibility, they could come out stronger from this, not weaker, and I don't know why so many of you feel that is a certainty. I just don't get it. I don't know if this will be the end of Putin or result in any changes at all for the government, but I do think Prigozhin has significantly weakened public affection for the special military operation, both directly by broadcasting criticisms of the war as an invention to benefit corrupt elites and indirectly by making it clear the war is having serious blowback consequences. Wagner was very popular among war supporters, and now the leader of Wagner is saying the justifications for the war were bullshit? No one can say the war is proceeding rhythmically and calmly at this point
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Jun 24, 2023 20:20
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god please help me posted:What an interesting birthday this has been. Happy birthday!
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Jun 24, 2023 20:20
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| # ? May 31, 2024 00:35 |
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Rahu posted:The least likely outcome happened, Lukashenko negotiated a deal between Wagner and Russia.
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Jun 24, 2023 20:20
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